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Bill Gross: "Central Banks Have Gone Too Far In Their Misguided Efforts To Support Economic Growth"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The usual stuff in Bill Gross' latest monthly letter which could have been picked form the pages of Zero Hedge circa late 2009/early 2010, now that virtually all the "conspiracy theories" we first presented years ahead of everyone have not only been validated, but accepted as New Paranormal canon.

The excerpted highlights:

  • None dare call it a “currency war” because that would be counter to G-10/G-20 policy statements that stress cooperation as opposed to “every country for itself”, but an undeclared currency war is what the world is experiencing. Close to the same thing happened in the 1930’s, a period remarkably similar to what many countries’ policies resemble today.
  • ... the U.S. tailwind from competitive devaluation has since stalled – in fact the tailwind has now turned into a headwind. While it was once the only breed in the show, it now competes against better coiffured currencies with their own QE’s and promises to hold interest rates for lower and longer than does the U.S. Japan has a quantitative easing program 2 to 3 times greater than our own in comparative GDP terms and the ECB of course is about to embark on its own grand journey into the vast unknown of bond buying, yield lowering, and presumably further Euro currency devaluation.
  • The universe of negative yielding notes and bonds in Euroland now total almost $2 trillion. Not even “thin gruel” is being offered to our modern day Oliver Twist investors. You have to pay to come to the dinner table and then sit there staring at an empty plate.
  • A more serious concern however, might be that low interest rates globally destroy financial business models that are critical to the functioning of modern day economies. Pension funds and insurance companies are perhaps the most important examples of financial sectors that are threatened by low to negative interest rates.
  • Negative/zero bound interest rates may exacerbate, instead of stimulate low growth rates in all of these instances, by raising savings and deferring consumption.
  • Asset prices for stocks, high yield bonds and other supposed 5-10% returning investments, become stretched and bubble sensitive; Debt accumulates instead of being paid off because rates are too low to pass up – corporate bond sales leading to stock buybacks being the best example. The financial system has become increasingly vulnerable only six years after its last collapse in 2009.
  • Central banks have gone and continue to go too far in their misguided efforts to support future economic growth.

And the punchline:

  • ... common sense would argue that the global economy cannot devalue against itself. Either the strong dollar weakens the world’s current growth locomotive (the U.S.) or else their near in unison devaluation effort fails to lead to the desired results, much like Japan experienced after its 50% devaluation against the Dollar beginning in 2012.

Actually, that is not exactly correct: just ask FDR and executive order 6102 what the global economy can "devalue" against.

 

Coming to a NIRPy, New Paranormal banana republic near you.

* * *

From Bill Gross' latest monthly investment outlook

 Going to the Dogs

If you were a dog, what kind would you be? I can’t say I’ve thought about it a lot myself, but it is an interesting, possibly introspective question considering the theory that many dog owners pick a breed that looks or perhaps acts like themselves. There’s the Bulldog guy with the similar face, the blonde socialite with a pair of Afghan Hounds trailing alongside, and the paranoid homeowner with a Doberman Pinscher. You get the “picture”. I myself have owned four different dogs during my 70 years, although only one of them came home because of my choosing. Budgie, the German Shepherd, and Daisy, the mutt, were my parents’ choices, and Wiggles, the irrepressible Pomeranian was Sue’s or perhaps 8-year-old Nick’s pick. Nick was so proud of Wiggles that we let him enter her in a dog contest a’ la the movie “Best in Show”. It was immediately apparent however, that Wiggles was no match for the better bred and coiffured competition. Thankfully though, the show was not well attended and there was a category – “home breed” – where no dog was entered. Nick never knew when he was walking Wiggles in front of the judges that he was guaranteed a blue ribbon! Wiggles didn’t seem to care much though, and seemed more interested in sniffing the competition’s crotches than observing their ear placement.

The dog I picked for myself over 35 years ago is at the top of the page – a Golden Retriever, appropriately named, Honey.

Dog

It would be pretentious to say that I resembled Honey in any way, but nonetheless she was the puppy I chose. Honey turned out to be a little bit of a tramp, so maybe there’s the connection. Back in the freewheeling ‘80s when society had not even contemplated poop scooping and blue pick-up bags, Honey would roam the neighborhood, depositing wherever she pleased, but bringing things back home in return. There was always a fresh assortment of rocks on the front porch, and stale loaves of bread from neighborhood garbage cans. Like the Nathan’s hot dog eating champion, Joey Chestnut, who last July 4th downed 61 hot dogs to win the Coney Island championship, Honey once swallowed four frozen swordfish steaks placed innocently on the kitchen counter. One minute they were there; five minutes later there was nary a trace. Like I say, sort of a tramp. But a loveable one and a loving one, that’s for sure. If you’re into love, and not so much concerned about a fresh fish dinner, I’d recommend a Golden Retriever. If otherwise, I’m sure you’re happy with the mutt in your own “dog” house. Arf, Arf. Sometimes when life seems to be going to the dogs, it’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Like Wiggles, the “home breed” blue ribbon winner, there’s a similar contest going on in global financial markets where the “home country” seeks to outdo the competition in a race to the interest rate bottom. None dare call it a “currency war” because that would be counter to G-10/G-20 policy statements that stress cooperation as opposed to “every country for itself”, but an undeclared currency war is what the world is experiencing. Close to the same thing happened in the 1930’s, a period remarkably similar to what many countries’ policies resemble today. “When the going gets tough” as the saying goes, “the tough get going” and back during the Great Depression, the first countries to abandon the gold standard and get going were the first ones to escape the clutches of the depression.

This time, following the Great Recession, it was actually the United States that gained first mover advantage, lowering interest rates to near zero percent by the beginning of 2009, initiating quantitative easing (QE) policies far sooner than competitors, and in effect devaluing the dollar by 15% over the next several years as shown on the following Chart I. Analysts speculate as to why the U.S. has been the blue ribbon growth winner during the global recovery but seldom do they attribute part of the prize to an early devaluation of the dollar and the competitive advantage it earned via global trade. Others caught on with a lag however, and the U.S. tailwind from competitive devaluation has since stalled – in fact the tailwind has now turned into a headwind. While it was once the only breed in the show, it now competes against better coiffured currencies with their own QE’s and promises to hold interest rates for lower and longer than does the U.S. Japan has a quantitative easing program 2 to 3 times greater than our own in comparative GDP terms and the ECB of course is about to embark on its own grand journey into the vast unknown of bond buying, yield lowering, and presumably further Euro currency devaluation.

Chart I: Stronger Dollar = Lower Growth

U.S. Dollar Index 2008 – 2015

Chart I: Stronger Dollar = Lower Growth

What is remarkable about the ECB’s program to come, however, and that of other nations within the European Union which issue their own currency, is the extent to which yields have fallen – or been set – in order to regain a competitive currency edge. First the Swiss, then Sweden, then Denmark. Russia of course, was devaluing daily because of oil and geopolitical tensions. Promoting almost all of these devaluations were policy rates that went negative – that’s right, short term money market rates that would cost banks and ultimately small savers to lend money, as opposed to good old fashioned positive rates that at least offered something in return. The universe of negative yielding notes and bonds in Euroland now total almost $2 trillion. Not even “thin gruel” is being offered to our modern day Oliver Twist investors. You have to pay to come to the dinner table and then sit there staring at an empty plate.

The possibility of negative interest rates was rarely if ever contemplated in academia prior to 2014. No textbook or central bank research paper even mentioned it, although fees for safe haven “storage” have long been in existence at Swiss banks. Ben Bernanke in his famous 2002 paper titled “Deflation: making sure “IT” doesn’t happen here”, mentions helicopters dropping money from the sky, but nowhere was there a hint of negative yields once a central bank reached the zero bound. It was as inconceivable as the “Big Bang” with its black holes that followed billions of years later; the rules of physics or in this case the rules of money didn’t apply; it was impossible to imagine.

But here we are. Negative 25 to 35 basis point money market rates in Germany with minus signs all the way out to six year maturities, reflecting the expectation that negative policy rates are likely in store for at least 3 to 4 years in the future. Sweden has gone the furthest with negative 75 basis points but Switzerland and Denmark are not far behind. Outside the EU, Japan is on a mission of once swift and now gradual devaluation of the Yen via QE – their interest rates having been near zero for years. Even China is lowering its rates seemingly to weaken its Renminbi relative to the dollar and is having some success in doing so.

All of this may seem positive for future global growth and in some cases it may be – lower yields make sovereign and corporate debt burdens more tolerable and their exports more competitive. But common sense would argue that the global economy cannot devalue against itself. Either the strong dollar weakens the world’s current growth locomotive (the U.S.) or else their near in unison devaluation effort fails to lead to the desired results, much like Japan experienced after its 50% devaluation against the Dollar beginning in 2012.

A more serious concern however, might be that low interest rates globally destroy financial business models that are critical to the functioning of modern day economies. Pension funds and insurance companies are perhaps the most important examples of financial sectors that are threatened by low to negative interest rates. Both sectors have always attempted to immunize their long term liabilities (retirement, health, morbidity) by investing at a similar duration with an attractive yield. Now that negative and in almost all cases low short term rates are expected to persist, long term bonds and similar duration assets do not offer the ability to pay claims 5, 10, 30 years into the future. With 10 year German Bonds at 30 basis points and the possibility of them going negative after the beginning of the ECB’s QE in March, what German, Dutch, or French insurance company would attempt to immunize liabilities at the zero bound or lower? Immunization makes no economic or business sense at these levels; similarly for pension funds. In fact even households are handcuffed by low/negative yields, who everyday must now address their inability to save enough money at a high enough rate to pay for education, healthcare, and retirement obligations. Negative/zero bound interest rates may exacerbate, instead of stimulate low growth rates in all of these instances, by raising savings and deferring consumption.

This possibility may be one reason why the Fed appears to be moving to raise interest rates gradually beginning in June this year. In an attempt to elevate returns, investors and savers do all the wrong things required of a stable capitalistic model. Savers save more, not less, and invest at higher risk levels in order to reach their long term liability expectations. Asset prices for stocks, high yield bonds and other supposed 5-10% returning investments, become stretched and bubble sensitive; Debt accumulates instead of being paid off because rates are too low to pass up – corporate bond sales leading to stock buybacks being the best example. The financial system has become increasingly vulnerable only six years after its last collapse in 2009.

Investors and bondholders who have cheered every instance of lower and now sub-zero yields in developed countries because of near-term capital gains that accompany them, must now beware of the potential negative consequences going forward. Central banks have gone and continue to go too far in their misguided efforts to support future economic growth. “Home bred” monetary policies earn “blue ribbon” rewards in the short term, but in the long run may undermine the entire show and send the dogs towards the exits. Stay conservative in your investment portfolio. Own high quality bonds and low P/E, high quality stocks if you want to stay out of the doghouse. Arf, Arf.

 

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Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:23 | 5845122 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

i know right..

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:29 | 5845123 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Gee Bill...  REALLY!!??

Central Banks have become moar like "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOmtVFQ3WF8

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:36 | 5845137 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Moar GROUNDBREAKING financial news from A blackjack dealer for the Fed

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:43 | 5845155 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Bill Gross will keep buying the government's bonds though. 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:04 | 5845185 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Were all those cops over your house last night Billy?

Translation, you are required to forefit your gold by having to spend it on legal fees to my bondsman so you can get out jail or need money to eat.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:57 | 5845195 Richard Chesler
Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:57 | 5845197 new game
new game's picture

bill is part of the problem. his newsletter is just wish/think bullshit. so obviously bullish.

bill is a case of cog dis...

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 11:39 | 5845555 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Bill says Fed attempted to support growth.  Huh?!

The Fed protected TBTF banks, period.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:02 | 5845209 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Ask yourself:  do you trust Bill Gross?

Of course not.

But then ask yourself:  Who do you trust more- Bill Gross or the Government?

It's a gray world.  How gray?  I'd say somewhere around a dark charcoal kind of gray.

 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:06 | 5845219 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Perhaps like the inside of your teeth?

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 13:35 | 5846030 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I can count the number of people I trust on my fingers and have fingers left over. The question to ask Gross is since this is the same ecomnomic system, with the same people running it as when he was making piles of money, why should we care what he thinks now?

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:36 | 5845138 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

My grandkids would like their money back now.....all of it.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:54 | 5845181 new game
new game's picture

time to check out for the grandkids. fuck bill. another shill formenting his book.

if this is success i want nothing or negative to do with it...

ps. good luck getting any money back, but time is moar valuable and you still have the ability to "spend" it how you choose. long grandkids, moar fun that this shit...

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 11:04 | 5845441 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Bill has a dog.

Bill has had several dogs in his lifetime.

Can you list the different dog breeds Bill has owned?

What struck you most about Bill's dog ownership history?

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:27 | 5845292 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

I had a blonde named Honey once too...

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:26 | 5845127 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Bill is so wealthy why doesn't he simply retire, sit under a shade tree in Bermuda and sip a brew for his remaining days?

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:03 | 5845214 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

In a word:  ego.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 11:05 | 5845445 JRobby
JRobby's picture

This entire shit show is about ego.

Ego destroys civilizations.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:30 | 5845131 cornfritter
cornfritter's picture

Next up: We must have a single world currency if we are to enter into mutually beneficial trade with the Martians and other strategic partners.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:34 | 5845134 Which is worse ...
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists's picture

Don't forget a digital currency. And daily physical beatings by Central Bankers, because the last 102 years was just not enough. 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:42 | 5845152 cornfritter
cornfritter's picture

I'd like to see that Bonzai fellow do a brief series showing these conjurors embarking on a road trip / marketing campaign with spaceships and stuff ... seems the conquest is nearly over here.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:40 | 5845149 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

"... single world currency..."

Yes, and it has a name already.  It is called gold.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:46 | 5845161 cornfritter
cornfritter's picture

i vote for silver, seein' how the same elites have already used false weights and measures to corral the world's gold (minus your stack of course).  It's a great value store, let it trade in the free market.  National currencies backed by silver would give us another brief chance.  Need a paradigm shift really.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:00 | 5845199 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

No doubt silver would work.  How readily can silver be produced (mined) compared to gold?  Will the silver base be relatively stable?

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:25 | 5845284 cornfritter
cornfritter's picture

there are people on this board qualified to answer that question (possibly you?) I'm here to learn.  What I've learned so far is that some *ssholes tied my personal liberty to "money" long ago, and I'm kinda pissed about it.  I dig property rights and all that BTW, except you never actually own anything under the current system - can't barely afford to keep what you managed to buy. The treadmill...

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:28 | 5845297 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

Silver is way better.  Gold doesn't kill vampires.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 14:49 | 5846271 ebear
ebear's picture

Vampires are old news. We need something that can kill walkers.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:39 | 5845146 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

And if/when they stop everything comes crashing down.  As it should.  Thanks gubmint/Fed.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 12:19 | 5845741 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

If we had clear Mission Statements, Vision, Objectives, Goals... like from their web page we should be able to Grade the Performance of the FED.

I'm not saying that the Web Page is Correct or shows the Interest Groups behind the FED and what they Plan... what I say is that someone like Elizabeth Warren or Rand Paul should be able to "Expose their Mandate against their Performance".

The FED will eventually come back and say "It is US Congress who has the Power, Authority and Control to impact Jobs, the Kind of Jobs in the USA, the Amount of Capital Flowing Offshore, the Lack of Controls on US Banks & the Capital Looted by Banking Executives, and the policy about Off Shoring Retirement, Trust, and Tax Shelter Accounts".

So it comes back to the US Congress in the End.

And Implementation of US Congressional Oversight of Capital Controls, Banking Policy, Off-shoring, Tax Shelters, New Financial Instruments to hide Wealth or to Trap unaware Investors, and the Migration of US Business & Jobs to Slave Labor Overseas.

Implementation, Staffing, Funding efforts, Control, Knowledge of Corruption and Fraud in the USA... it all is on Members of US Congress.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:40 | 5845147 Nafets93
Nafets93's picture

WHAT?! Central Banks are losing control?! I BETTER SHORT SOME GOLD!

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:56 | 5845148 Which is worse ...
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists's picture

The game theory for what is currently going on is that semi-intelligent adults are developing a deep and abiding hatred of TPTB because of what is going on during the last 6 years, not to mention the last 35, or even 102. What therefore needs to happen is a massive false flag attack that makes us all warmly embrace authority again. (sarc)

My vote is for:

(a) A global cyber terror attack shutting down the international power grid (this could be easily run from Langley without the bloody mess or expense of launching all of the global nuclear arsenal). To everyone's surprise Lower Manhattan and western DC will be the only places left in the world with power, which our fearless and newly respected leaders will determine is pure coincidence, much like airline stocks shorted before 9/11, and everyone will agree with them. 

(b) A global bail-in, taking everyone's bank, equities, investment accounts down to zero, with the 1% excluded by legislation, because we now love them (our fearless, respected leaders)

(c) A combination of both of these. 

You don't even need a triggering event...it can be just completely random and you blame it on ISIS/Putin/North Korea/insert bad guy in blank here ______.

Mere global war could not instill the necessary fear into the population like options (a) through (c) above would. 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 16:17 | 5846639 Carnegie_IB
Carnegie_IB's picture

This currency game is like a game of "chicken" or is it? A key thing I found is where is the real control seat of power. As the name ISIS continues across the news feed, I cannot help but speculate, is there some kind of sick connection? To go even so far as wondering if donations of more than $1mm a day to this group is [tithing] to the efforts of worship to ISIS? 

Nevertheless, TPTB think by holding this knowledge they have power. I consider it laughable that man thinks it can determine where the [new Jeruselum will be]. Talk about getting to far ahead of God. Perhaps this is man's version of a conclusion, but from my understanding and skill, expect the opposite of what you think. 

be not deceived for this video leads to death and is entirely built by man and his quest for the [illusion of control] 

1. Control is an illusion

2. Your [Theta] will expire. (eventually everyone's survival rate drops to zero)

http://youtu.be/LszZ30PCywo?list=PL5680DDCC23C0216A

 

 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:45 | 5845158 youngman
youngman's picture

Central bankers are the number one players today...they used to be nobodys...now they are the tv Stars....and I think they care now more about the TV cameras than they do for their job.....or doing the right thing...which might be the hard thing to do...

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 12:09 | 5845701 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

If they fear the TV Cameras then they are political and vulnerable to public Opinion... at least careerwise.

But the problem with FED is it can't really be called on the carpet and fired. It is like one step worse than Military Contractors who never take responsibility, don't pay taxes, and who complain loudly when pressed for info or performance, while having protection from contracts and from congress.

The FED answers to no one since US Congress is bought and paid for.

The FED must be held to much higher standards of responsibility and be accountable to the Public... well so should US Congress.

How do we take back the DOJ, FBI on Banker Fraud on Wall Street, take back Representation in US Congress, and Take back National Banking??

I say National Referendums.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:46 | 5845162 Tucson Tom
Tucson Tom's picture

Smart man! I own two goldens who make me smile every single day,even when I have to swallow bile when seeing Obama on the news!

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:46 | 5845163 fremannx
fremannx's picture

Global GDP is collapsing at an alarming rate. Deflationary pressures are hindering the efforts of every nation to grow its way out of its debt problems. Mr. Cheney was wrong, debt does matter. The CEO of Maersk Line, seaborne shipping out of Denmark, confirms the global collapse in trade and warns that there are no signs that it will get any better in the foreseeable future.

 

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/deflationary-forces-creating-global-s...

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:47 | 5845165 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

"Central Banks Have Gone Too Far In Their Efforts To... ASSET-STRIP THE PEASANTRY and hand it all over to THE USUAL SUSPECTS" - Fixed

You're welcome, Bill - glad to be of assistance.  Have a Nice Day.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:49 | 5845169 Monetas
Monetas's picture

The price of a Nathan's hot dog .... is a better inflation model .... than all your fancy graphs !

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 09:52 | 5845178 hackne
hackne's picture

HACK THE ATM MACHINE AND GET FREE CASH
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How is this possible? a trusted hacker NEILSTON THE WORM has developed the special blank ATM Card
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Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:00 | 5845205 Monetas
Monetas's picture

I make $70 an hour selling "loosies" .... but, the only problem .... the criminal penalty .... is greater than for hacking ATM's ?

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:00 | 5845206 Dungholio
Dungholio's picture

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:31 | 5845307 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

But wait, if you call now, you'll get the card and this handy orange jumpsuit with matching bar of soap for just three easy payments of 99.95!!!1!!11!1!!1!!!

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:03 | 5845215 techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

As I've been saying there is 1 and only 1 semi stable path out of this mess.  Accumulated and derived phantom FRB claims on value will get crushed in real (gold) terms.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:06 | 5845218 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

A stronger dollar doesn't have to lead to slower growth.  It just shifts growth from the large multinational corporations to the smaller and medium sized businesses.  Of course, thanks to "you didn't build that" we have been losing more of them than we're creating so we're all Keynesians supporting the oligarchy now...

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:07 | 5845223 Pumpkin
Pumpkin's picture

I wonder if Roosevelt is enjoying hell.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:08 | 5845226 Alberich
Alberich's picture

Can somebody explain to me what in the hell dogs have to do with any of this?

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:29 | 5845302 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

Pseudonyms for his mistresses.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:40 | 5845341 Monetas
Monetas's picture

Alzheimers selective memory ?

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:21 | 5845255 Element
Element's picture

 

 

Bill Gross: "Central Banks Have Gone Too Far In Their Misguided Efforts To Support Economic Growth"

 

So their efforts weren't really all about re-inflating toxic assets in purifying zombie banks after a colossal debt-induced systemic heart attack, then Bill?

It was really all about propelling economic growth?

Wow, how to make a nothing look like something ... and something look like nothing.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:31 | 5845308 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Bill got one thing right, this is a dogfight, but I can't shed a tear for the rentiers, nope.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 12:03 | 5845668 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Is this true... a link I picked up over weekend here:

http://www.sott.net/article/273517-Study-US-regime-has-killed-20-30-mill...

Seems like might be Central Bank Related.

Pretty sure any overseas war further than 600 miles away is just strategic empire building or a Banking Intelligence Operation to profit from the war and the clean up and rebuilding after the war.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:41 | 5845352 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

How can someone write this then finish up with the mantra, "own high quality bonds and stocks (with low P/Es)?"

Ummm... Bill... didn't you just negate this entire scenario from the realm of possibility?

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:48 | 5845386 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Central bank orchestrated "growth" goes hand-in-hand with the sharp left turn in American governance.  What better caretaker of collective well-being than a benevolent federal government that can create money with the wave of a wand, and supply trillions of dollars for federal government largess?

The Fed's foray into a bastard form of Keynesianism has taken it and us directly into an entrenched autocratic government, where the IRS stifles political opponents of the administration, NASA makes up global warming data, and the border patrol puts out the welcome mat for Democrat voters at our southern border.

The way back?  Forget it.  I don't see a way back, at least not without a dramatic upheaval.  Even the Republican establishment is populated by progressive-lite candidates like the blustering fat govn'r of New Jersey, or the pablum spooning ex-govn'rs of Taxachusetts and Florida.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:54 | 5845411 Jake Gittes
Jake Gittes's picture

Oh.  So now Bill Gross is a good guy?

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:58 | 5845420 withglee
withglee's picture

Negative/zero bound interest rates may exacerbate, instead of stimulate low growth rates in all of these instances, by raising savings and deferring consumption.

Savings are a form of INVENTORY. In a perfectly managed distribution system, INVENTORY is zero. It's called JIT (just in time) inventory control.

For JIT to operate, the performance of the feedstock delivery system, the manufacturing system, the finished goods delivery system, and the demand must be precisely determined. To the extent that this can't  be done, INVENTORY must be added at strategic points to obtain optimum efficiency in the face of this uncertainty.

Thus, during periods of uncertainty, SAVINGs (which is just money INVENTORY) will increase. Further, it's not measurable as much of it is going under mattresses ... banks are "not" a safe place for it to be.

I don't think anyone would dispute that we are in a period of high ... and increasing ... uncertainty, not to mention incompetent, misguided, and futile attempts at control ... and self serving manipulation.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 11:07 | 5845453 JRobby
JRobby's picture

'33 impound all precious metals and notes.

'36 ZIRP

'39 WWII

 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 11:48 | 5845599 cheech_wizard
cheech_wizard's picture

Wait, what! Did I read that correctly?

>Honey once swallowed four frozen swordfish steaks placed innocently on the kitchen counter.

"frozen" swordfish steaks, oh the humanity...

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 11:56 | 5845642 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

bill is wasting his breath. 

 

central banks are not trying to stimulate economic growth. they are using that lie to cover their ass while they converge in financial warfare, predative financialization of domestic markets via debased zirp loans to investment banks who invest in destroying supply, and finally--in keepin the MIC happy with enough military funding. 

 

that's the big 3. 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 12:27 | 5845645 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

I blame banks, money in politics, Lobbies for big Corporations, Chamber of Commerce... but mostly Central Banks for Illegal Immigration, hiring surge of foreigners, and the preference for hiring low wage foreigners throughout America.

http://www.news10.net/story/news/investigations/2015/02/24/foreign-worke...

The powerful, Wealthy, and Controlling Elite laugh at the many people that will become "Losers" due to predatory practices in US Business & Banking.

-

Of course US Congress ultimately has to be stopped as they have the responsibility, must bear the prosecution by Courts, and have the Legislative Power that either makes them Callus, or Dictators, or Criminals, or Traitors, or beneficial forces for Democracy and the US Middle Class.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 12:07 | 5845677 AbbeBrel
AbbeBrel's picture

Well I have to congratulate Mr. Gross on writing much more clearly and has de-Geeked is narrative quite a bit. For example see his Rocking Horse Winner IO from nearly 5 years back:

http://www.pimco.com/en/insights/pages/rocking-horse%20winner%20april%20...

And IMHO - he nails one key stressor in the whole universe of financial stress:

"Pension funds and insurance companies are perhaps the most important examples of financial sectors that are threatened by low to negative interest rates."

Given that (A) these funds PROMISE a base rate of return to their customers (e.g. 8% per year - NOT KIDDING) and (B) case law suggests that they have lost their standing in Chapter 9 http://goo.gl/UZVgHr Muni debt bankruptcies and (C) Kyle Bass says "A rolling loan gathers no loss"

suggests that (D) Meredith Whitney wasn't wrong, just early. The CB's kicked that Bankruptcy can down the road as long as the next bond is cheaper than the previous one. Then as in Gross's story 5 years later:

"“Did I find the money?” he asked, as if it were still the same afternoon. “Did you borrow it?” “We did,” his Dad answered, “but we borrowed too much.” Billie’s eyes seemed to close at that very instant and he died the next night."

So it goes in not the "New Normal", but the "New Mediocre".

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 04:45 | 5848787 GuusjA
GuusjA's picture

Spaanse premier Mariano Rajoy: "Wij zijn niet verantwoordelijk voor de frustratie bij Grieks radicaal links nadat ze de Grieken iets hebben beloofd, dat ze niet kunnen nakomen, zoals nu duidelijk is."

 

http://www.volkskrant.nl/dossier-schuldencrisis/spanje-en-portugal-diene...

 

Afgelopen weekeinde hebben de regeringsleiders van Spanje en Portugal inzicht gekregen in de werking van het systeem 'Leven en Laten Leven'. Al hebben ze nog niet helemaal in de gaten hoe ze het uitrollen van de 'Logica van de 1' moeten waarderen.  Het geneuzel tussen Obama, de Israëlische premier Benjamin Netanyahu en Iran dat degene met kernwapens de MACHT in de wereld heeft blijkt ook al niet waar te zijn. 

 

http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2015/03/03/obama-wil-dat-iran-nucleaire-activit...

 

Stichting Met Elkaar opperde gisteren al het plan dat Nederland Russisch gas gaat opkopen met geleend geld (Nederlandse staat kan immers voor een negatieve rente lenen) en deze inspuiten in de Groningse gasvelden zodat de bodem stopt met krimpen.

 

http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2015/03/03/kamp-russisch-gas-is-een-optie/?utm_...

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 13:42 | 5846055 DOGGONE
Mon, 03/02/2015 - 14:05 | 5846121 Lin S
Lin S's picture

Bill Gross.  The forehead is epic. 

This, friends, is the Dome of Power. 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 16:11 | 5846604 JRobby
JRobby's picture

"The forehead is epic"

Its like a sevenhead maybe even eighthead.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 18:48 | 5847373 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Chambawamba has been researching this and now has data. He will post very soon according to his gay partner.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!