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VIX Broke A Major Record Last Week
After trading at its steepest (short-term volatility lowest vs medium-term volatility) in 5 months last Monday, VIX rallied notably (and the curve flattened) on the week to 2015 lows. At the same time, in the 'traded' VIX product world, 2 rather notable things happened: first, VIX futures, which were at a record net long positioning at the end of January, have plunged to a net negative (short VIX) positioning once again; and second, and more stunningly, VXX (the VIX ETF) saw the biggest surge in units created since record began. Between these violent swings and the push-pull weights of oil's high vol and AAPL dominance of any dispersion, we suspect VVIX (vol of vol) will pick up notably from its 3-month lows.
From 5-month steeps, VIX rallied and flattened all week...
VIX Futures have swung once again to a net negative (short VIX) positioning...
And the most VXX ETF units were created last week ever...
While the implications are unclear, it seems like so many other aspects of the markets currently, the volatility complex is extremely fragile.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Give us this day our daily HFT liquidity and forgive us our shorts as we forgive those who short against us.
Thank god for computers, otherwise we'd have to deal with reality and I remember when the VIX actually meant something....
Fucking A I am still living in what used to be the 'real world' and am long VXX/TVIX as this market is based on NOTHING... At least my gambling bets are placed, eventually I have to be proven right, if not, then WTF is really going on? How much longer can the corrupt bankers and politicians keep this charade going? Eventually the money printing has to stop as it has always done so before, right?
They will keep it going right up until a suitable fall-guy is found that will also prevent payout of any winning bets.
Bank Holiday, FTW!
My order of some twix for $2.00 wasn't filled today since 9:30AM!!??? WTF
Left Twix or right Twix?
both,
tvix, damn it
Guys, long any of these volatility products for any time longer than a couple of days is a high probabilty losing trade. Because of the negative roll in the VIX ETF's, you will continually lose money over a longer period of time. Has anyone ever wondered that there are no options traded on any of the short VIX ETF's? My guess is because the option market makers understand the dynamics of the VIX and anyone long calls is something like XIV will benefit from the negative roll yield and have a high probability option trade.
Not a good bet unless you're short TVIX or UVXY. S&P futures are manipulated by central banks to prop up the stock market. You might as well flush your money down the toilet. If you want to play the rigged game, then don't consider TVIX or UVXY long until VIX is around 12'ish. 12-18 is a fairly predictable manipulated trading range based upon the last 2 years. Just my 2 cents.
"Buy at 12" is a proven layup in my experience. You tell no lies, friend.
they are stealin gold
http://www.myfoxny.com/story/28238870/4-million-in-gold-stolen-from-truc...
I'm not one for conspiracies, but it would be rather ingenious if:
Could someone sum this up to a VIX n00b?
BTFD. We are a c**t hair away from the next meltup.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX
Start there. Like all indexes, there is no way to invest directly in it. You can only by "products" that are designed to track it (at a cost, obviously). VXX and VXZ being the two most popular Exchange Traded Notes for short term and medium term volatility tracking.
They are purely synthetic products. There is no underlying asset (well, there is if you want to call it that, but I wouldn't).
The internal running costs are high and any use of these index-tracking ETNs for long term investment will end in tears. They slowly work their way downward over time as the costs eat any longer term profit. As such, they are for SHORT TERM market bets/hedging, not anything like an "investment".
Cannot argue with that, all I can add is that if you are not long when the shit hits the fan you will not be able to get long fast enough and only those who hold shares at this time will be able to profit from the inevitable crash. If you have some gambling money to set aside buying volatility can have a HUGE payoff if the market crashes, as long as you are OK with losing 100% of your 'investment' of course if you mistime the market...
Full disclosure: I am long VXX/TVIX and have cried myself to sleep many times while watching the decay over the last year +...
Tvix has popped 25% 5 times in the last 6 months.... up and down 25% is a better bet than $aapl any day
The only time and way it makes any sense to be long on those is either via far out of the money calls with a greater than 6 month time period, or when you just so happen to know that the crash is coming tomorrow. Short of that, you're much better off sticking to being short, on them, especially after the VIX has spiked up a lot. You're guaranteed to lose all your money in the long run being long on VXX/TVIX/UVXY/etc, and somewhat less than guaranteed to make money being on the opposite side, or being long on SVXY, etc. This is because of the way those products work. They're constantly buying vix futures like let's say 6 months out then selling them 3 months out, meaning they get absolutely killed on fees and depreciation of the value of futures contracts. Ones like SVXY just take the opposite side of the trade, but they still are subject to small fees as well.
If you're buying options on them, it's all a matter of price. Case in point, I recently made a huge pile shorting UVXY, meanwhile losing a small pile by longing SVXY. Figure that one out.
bullish
What great contributions to human prosperity and societal advancement these charts represent.
there is nothing left to talk about...it's over, the market will never go down and whatever is needed to keep it going will be done, regardless if it is legal, moral or whatever.
why even bother with headlines, economic data and all that silly blah blah blah. 10%+ per year guaranteed, courtesy of the NY FED. yours truly, the dudley
When it does go down, I am probably going to be confused for a mental case for I will be on a laughing binge.
File an SEC complaint against the Fed and central banks all over the world.
I did today.
https://denebleo.sec.gov/TCRExternal/index.xhtml
I thought I had read last year that there are 2x as many VXX shares shorted as there were issued.
Maybe they are trying to avoid an epic explosive short squeeze.
(to bad, 'cause I'm holding some)
Thank God we have deflation
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/electricity-price-inde...
If you look at the bottom chart, you can very clearly see electricity prices steady or falling for decades and then almost immediately after 1971 the non-ending trend up began. Gee, what happened in 1971?
any Lazy crook could have simply Shorted VXX or the Doube Vix symbol UVXY and look at the returns, imagine using a Rolling Options strategy, I'm sure a select few did
Un-Spit Numbers, since they had several Reverse Splits
UVXY came available 3.5 years ago Oct 2011 = High =97,920 to 17
vxx 2,300 to 27, 5 year