• Knave Dave
    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

GDP Shocker: Atlanta Fed Calculates Q1 Growth Of Only 1.2%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While every other word from talking-heads and policy-makers relates various anecdotes (or simple lies) about US economic growth, The Atlanta Fed appears to have taken a 'data-dependent' perspective on the real economy (as opposed to smoke and mirrors). Based on their GDPNow "nowcasting" model, The Atlanta Fed projects Q1 2015 GDP growth os just 1.2% (less than half current sell-side economist consensus) and getting weaker...

As The Atlanta Fed explains...

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our new GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release.

 

 

 

 

 

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 1.2 percent on March 2, down from 1.7 percent on February 26. The nowcasts for first-quarter real residential and nonresidential structures investment and for real state and local government spending all declined following this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

*  *  *

This forecast from The Atlanta Fed is less than half consensus... and not even we were bearish enouogh....

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Of course, none of this matters for stocks...

*  *  *

As it appears, just as we noted previously - thanks to Jim Bullard, that stocks believe there will be no rate hike and Fed exuberance will continue Japan-like for years/decades to come.

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Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:37 | 5850839 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Yea, yea, yea.  Did you buy todays dip in the US Stock Indices

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:39 | 5850851 PAPA ROACH
PAPA ROACH's picture

Just give them somne crack, they will change it to be in line with the leading crack smoker economists...

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:56 | 5850951 pods
pods's picture

How fucking bad must things be when they cannot get at least 3-5% out of a shitty manipulated metric such as this one after goosing the money supply so much the chart looks like a moonshot.

I mean seriously, every time this turd rises in the water the slightest bit people are ecstatic.  
But it is still just a turn, no matter what you put in the punchbowl.

pods 

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:09 | 5851027 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Of course it is a turd.  But it is a floating turd.  Incapable of sinking.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:17 | 5851072 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Like 9/11 it's the turd that will not flush.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 17:11 | 5851306 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I guess the President of the Atlanta Fed will begetting the Boris Nemstov treatment from the regime.

I would suggest using public transportation and hiring a food taster as this forecast is against the official narrative.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 17:24 | 5851373 Wait What
Wait What's picture

anything short of a negative Q1 GDP print is utter bullshit. This is the Fed being optimistic, as usual.

someone has to be the 1st to adjust the narrative, Atlanta Fed became that guinea pig.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 17:37 | 5851427 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Fear Not, Recovery is JUST around the Corner, because the Stock Market is a leading Indicator and all that glitters is APPL and .. and ... Were are my Meds

GDP = Gross Depressing Poop

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:41 | 5850856 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Revised to -1.2% soon.

Look!, It snowed a lot and it was very, very cold........

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:41 | 5850857 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

Fuck the US media complex , Fuck Obama , Fuck the FED and get the N-Fuck out of Ukrain.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:44 | 5850884 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

did you see this?

The German government says western powers have decided that Russian sanctions will only be removed if the Minsk agreement is respected in its entirety

It will happen soon.  EU Stocks will be looking sporty with GDP numbers going up and the Draghi buying spree.  Bonus is Obama and Nuland being told to stick their Ukraine aganda.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:40 | 5850858 blabam
blabam's picture

We can only "beat expectations" from here... BULLISH!

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:41 | 5850872 Goldbugger
Goldbugger's picture

YAY this should send the DOW to 18,500

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:41 | 5850873 Greenspazm
Greenspazm's picture

Shit on toast. . Bullish, as the lower chart proves beyond doubt.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:43 | 5850882 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Obamacare and taxes killing the sheeple.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:43 | 5850883 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

It's only a shock to the sheep and if I were the Atlanta bunch I would stay away from nailguns right now.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:44 | 5850894 Hohum
Hohum's picture

There hasn't been such a downward revision of economic numbers since...1Q 2014.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:48 | 5850910 Laddie
Laddie's picture

Well why doesn't the good and honorable people of American business and the government do something about this?

California imports foreign guest workers to process unemployment claims
A U.S. visa allows people to come to the country for high-tech jobs. Feb. 24, 2015 News10/KXTV

American tech employees forced to train H-1B replacements

the third employee interviewed said it did not appear that the company was interested in keeping any of the IT workers targeted for layoffs, and they weren't being offered the chance to apply for other jobs. "They just want to get rid of us and clean house," said this IT worker, who now worries about keeping her home.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:48 | 5850912 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

"Fed (irrational) exuberance"  it seems

 

Greenspan in 1996 when the dow was at 6k mentioned something about "irrational exuberance of the stock market..lol

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:52 | 5850931 The Bell Rang
The Bell Rang's picture

It really doesn't matter. The Fed must unload the balence sheet, for a profit. So stocks will tank soon, treasuries will rally. Fed hands over a few trillion to treasury, hey gotta take care of the boomers somehow. :)

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:57 | 5850953 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

The whole Syria proxy war is dirty. She had proof and they killed her.

New Anonymous op as White House still ignores murder of American reporter Serena Shim in Turkey

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 15:59 | 5850972 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

yepper, looks like they need roll out a new 'adjustment'.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:01 | 5850979 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

heh heh

 

not gonna argue

 

jibes with my US enters a recession no later than Q1 2015 call

 

goldman sachs & redbook same store retail sales out this morning for last week ... both weak and below expectations

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:10 | 5851040 Make_Mine_A_Double
Make_Mine_A_Double's picture

Wait...I just read a prop puff peice....errr....'well researched article' in the Vall Strasse Journal the other day about the sheepistanis were finally returning to big box retail stores.

Of course this is complete horseshit, but my have been sourced on the fact that I did buy a shopvac at Target last week.

I am beginning to think various PR organs of the state are doing a razzle dazzle in the MSM echo chamber to keep all in state of confusion.

Howewver, I read your previous and you are on target - Q1 and 2 will barely positive. Only question is how is Q3 and 4 turning upsidedown negative.

 

 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:20 | 5856054 JoWazzoo
JoWazzoo's picture

Recession this time next year.  Market tanks starting April or so after GDP and Q 1 Earnings SURPRISE!!!!!  Then down hill and more QE as the Fed panics from the surprises.  More Zombie land ahead.  Don't forget to buy the dips.

 

Speaking of which - look for the Plunge Protection Group to be out full force at Zombie purge.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:01 | 5850980 barry2001
barry2001's picture

If you are into drones check out this site : http://pickyourdrone.com/

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:05 | 5851005 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

EIA weekly crude inventory out tomorrow morning ... will the glut get gluttier??

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:43 | 5851196 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I still believe strongly that the Fed must normalize actually.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:08 | 5851022 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Krugman says it's time to burn Atlanta to the ground again.  That will be bullish for "growth".

Fucking morons.

The bankers need to repay us.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:11 | 5851045 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

Denny Lockhart better get out the white out and rainbow-colored crayons to start making some prettier revisions...!!

Otherwise, he may want to be very careful getting in and out of the shower, driving his car, eating in restaurants, wiping his ass, etc... he could become very accident prone....

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:20 | 5851093 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

ISM Services tomorrow should wake some people up

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:29 | 5851144 max2205
max2205's picture

Will it be the real number or the shadow number or the fake number

 

3 card Monte 

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:22 | 5851100 Mr. Bones
Mr. Bones's picture

Lets be honest though, nothing is going to happen if they miss expectations just like nothing happened in Febrary with ~90% misses and several ATHs.

 

The fed isn't going to say now that they aren't going to raise rates in June-Sep, and in June-Sep they'll find a new word for patience.  This will all work until it doesn't anymore so really we're just waiting for whatever event makes people engage in enough retrospection realize that the last several years were smoke and mirrors.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 17:35 | 5851414 silverer
silverer's picture

I think you hit it on the head. "Nothing is going to happen".  Indeed.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:23 | 5851108 madcows
madcows's picture

#Winning!

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:30 | 5851147 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

But the GDP Wow number will be so much better when we get it.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 16:35 | 5851162 Element
Element's picture

wha? ... bu ... ! ... but QTR3 2014 ... ! ... wees woz home 'n hosed for the recovery winter!!!

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 17:10 | 5851301 Make_Mine_A_Double
Make_Mine_A_Double's picture

Target to lay off 1000's. I guess my shopvac buy didn't save them.

But they are predicting +10 rev growth next year. No doubt due stock buybacks.

Another one drinks the Kool Aid

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 18:06 | 5851538 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Its kind of like the union mentality. Half the workers lost their jobs but the ones still working are WINNING. I plan on trying the modern path to profitability in my small business and simply fire my employees and stop paying my bills and see just how high I can get my profitability. I'm convinced I will be killing it! If I could only IPO at the peak.

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 17:33 | 5851400 silverer
silverer's picture

A shocker for all but ZH readers.  The economy cannot continue to function with interest rates at near zero or negative.  Add inflation, it's even worse.  It can't continue long when human labor measured in man hours, which is the real money, is valued negatively.  

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 18:03 | 5851520 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Why? The harder I work the farther behind i become. It makes perfect sense to me. I should quit while I'm behind, or before I get further behind.

Negative interest=negative growth=negative income

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 19:04 | 5851739 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Run hamsters...RUN! ;-)

Tue, 03/03/2015 - 19:16 | 5851773 Playtime's Over
Playtime's Over's picture

I can't wait for the smiting to begin. 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:02 | 5855992 JoWazzoo
JoWazzoo's picture

I brought the GDPNow info and the FactSet Earning numbers to the attention of several media sources including CNBS. So far no one other than ZeroHedge has acknowledged the data.

Guess it bursts too many bubbles. Ignorant F*cks would rather lead the sheeple to slughter with the raw-raw BTFD spinheads.

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