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ECB Will Cut Rates To Minus 3%: JP Morgan
A running theme here over the past several weeks has been that the ECB’s €1.1 trillion foray into quantitative easing will be severely hindered by a laundry list of constraints (some of which were unwittingly self-imposed). Another topic we’ve covered exhaustively is the idea that the world’s central banks will likely all, in relatively short order, run up against the natural limits of accommodative monetary policy (indeed, even some Japanese policy makers are starting to agree on this).
Thinking about these two things in conjunction raises an interesting question for the ECB: if a tail event comes rearing its ugly head and the global central bank race to the bottom accelerates, will Mario Draghi, effectively fighting with one hand tied behind his back by virtue of Q€’s limitations, be able to fend off an outright collapse?
Here’s FT with more:
...the ECB is now close to running out of ammunition. The true constraints on further ECB intervention lie in the 25 per cent issue limit and 33 per cent issuer limit on its sovereign bond purchases.
Except for Greek debt, the 25 per cent and 33 per cent caps should not prove binding in a scenario where the ECB keeps its monthly asset purchase pace of €60bn. However, the limits could be reached in worst-case scenarios where the ECB would have to boost the size of its QE programme or implement OMTs targeted on specific sovereigns.
The first type of worst-case scenario would be a new global deflationary shock. It might be triggered by faltering US growth or a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China. The consequence would be fiercer currency wars with balance sheet expansion races among central banks.
In this competition, the ECB would be handicapped: it would not have much room to significantly increase the size of its bond purchase programme. For instance, if monthly purchases had to be raised to €100bn, the 25 per cent issue limit would be reached after only eight months in the case of German government debt.
Given the narrow size of the eurozone corporate bond market, any substantial further expansion of the asset purchase programme would then have to include equities. But this could prove controversial within the ECB governing council.
It seems to us that this “first type of worst-case scenario” is not merely possible, but in fact likely. As we’ve shown time and again, QE’s ability to stoke inflation expectations and boost aggregate demand simply has not been proven — even after $5 trillion in asset purchases. Here’s what we had to say on the subject last week:
And so, stuck as we are in what looks like a chronic condition of oversupply and as it increasingly appears, in Citi’s words, that “the decoupling between EM GDP growth and global trade growth over the past decade [now looks] less like a benign shift away from exports to domestic consumption, and more like a world where GDP was temporarily boosted by a surge in credit, where suppliers ramped up capacity in anticipation of 10% nominal EM/Chinese demand growth continuing indefinitely, but where the limits of such credit-fuelled demand are suddenly being exposed,” more QE simply won’t move inflation expectations and certainly can’t do much to further stimulate aggregate demand (assuming it’s done anything in that regard thus far).
And it really hasn’t done anything. In fact, by keeping borrowing costs artificially low, QE may well be contributing to deflation by allowing insolvent producers to stay alive via cheap debt, resulting in overcapacity everywhere you look.
Furthermore, we now know that we will in fact get a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China as we just reported minutes ago (see here).
FT’s second type of worst-case scenario may be even more likely to manifest itself than the first:
The second type of worst-case scenario would be the return of the redenomination risk premium in certain peripheral sovereign bonds, for instance in the event of a Greek exit from the euro becoming a serious threat.
There is little doubt that the introduction of an alternative currency in Greece would lead markets to reinterpret the euro as a fixed exchange rate arrangement rather than as an irrevocable monetary union.
If recent events have taught us anything, it’s that the return of redenomination risk can come almost overnight — just look at the past two months. Regarding sovereign bond yields, the ECB has thus far succeeded in driving periphery borrowing costs (sans Greece) to record lows as Spanish and Italian 10s trade nearly 70 bps tighter than 10-year Treasurys. Should markets begin to factor in the same kind of redenomination risk premia as they did in the summer of 2012, the ECB would be hard pressed to arrest the panic. Here’s why, via FT again:
Mr Draghi [says] the QE programme does not alleviate the need to make recourse to OMTs in order to remove this redenomination tail-risk in specific stressed countries.
However, contrary to its initial design, the OMT programme could no longer be seen as “unlimited”. In the case of Portugal, for instance, the 25 per cent and 33 per cent limits leave barely any room for OMT purchases in addition to the planned QE purchases.
Indeed, Draghi himself is already playing down Q€'s potential, noting this afternoon in Cyprus that QE alone will not be sufficient to reignite eurozone growth.
Given all of this, it seems the only option for the ECB would be to plunge further into NIRP-dom. Here’s Robert Michele, JPM’s head of global fixed income, on just how crazy the new paranormal is about to get:
Via Bloomberg, citing Handelsblatt:
Eurozone on road to deflation, and bonds remain [an] attractive asset because high demand meets scarce supply
ECB will reduce interest for cash deposits to minus 3% and the dollar [will] appreciate by 20%, reaching parity with euro in 2015
There you have it Denmark. Draghi will see your minus 75 bps and raise you negative 225 on top.
* * *
As a reminder, here’s what the distribution of asset purchases looks like across the eurozone:
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Again, no surprise here.
No shit JPM.
USD is nearly at parity (€ is 1.11 USD when it was 1.38 not so long ago) already.
Now I KNOW it must all be fixed.........for sure......REALLY.....finally......this is IT
Time to buy another matress
Those guys all know deflation is already out of control.
"In fact, by keeping borrowing costs artificially low, QE may well be contributing to deflation by allowing insolvent producers to stay alive via cheap debt, resulting in overcapacity everywhere you look."
Whichever Tyler wrote that, give him a raise. FINALLY some sanity as to what negative savings rates actually do.
The insolvent dead beats aren't going to grow ANYBODY'S economy, nor spur ANY inflation. ONLY SAVERS CAN DO THAT by virtue of when they decide to open their wallets and let some of that money flow out as either spending or capital investment in productive ventures. When you crush savers by hitting the zero-bound or below, you CAUSE deflation both for the stated reason and because savers WON'T TOUCH THEIR SAVINGS. If they have to convert it to cash to avoid negative savings rates, they will. If they have to convert it to gold, they will. If they are too big for either of those options, they will let it play in the market (where they will lose money eventually) or take the negative rate and watch as their savings dwindle DESTROYING the exact capital that would otherwise be used to drive productive investment or spending.
IT IS SELF-REINFORCING AND SELF-DEFEATING.
(None of this matters, of course, because negative rates are about delaying the collapse of hopelessly indebted nations and the banks that buy their worthless debt. Economic growth is NOT the goal of the policy.)
If ZH would pick up on this theme and start laying it out there I think they would be doing their readers a real service. This horseshit back-asswards meme about "lower rates" being stimulative has been spread around like it's gospel or something in the MSM for YEARS. Is it not obvious we are at the end of that road? That is has STOPPED WORKING? If you want to lauch into an avenue of legitimately different thinking, a different view of monetary policy, this would be a good starting point.
""ECB Will Cut Rates To Minus 3%""
WTF... This Is Fucking CB KEYNESIAN WITCHCRAFT...
Ooops, Sorry For Insulting Witches...
-3 is not that far from -10.
DDNIRP coming soon?
DD stands for?
so if pensions are tied to bonds and bonds are tied to interest rates then what?
throw mama from the train, that's what
I know,its like -3% on savings deposits, - this is direct undiluted not-by-proxy destruction of capital.
And they hope to improve their bank leverage....how exactly?
What's going on here is something is preventing them from hitting the reset button. I wonder what.
This is it.....Mission Accomplished!
We're done.....you're on your own.
Good luck!
The helicopters can't be far behind. It will be TDNIRP. Maybwe they will simply imprison anyone who has more than 100 euros in the bank or under the mattress.
are the new notes printed yet (amero) where are they?
The new Obama hundreds are being Spocked as we speak.
http://rt.com/news/237465-nobel-peace-chairman-deposed/
"are the new notes printed yet (amero) where are they?"
You mean the Amereuro, don't you?
Helicopter drops are a terrible idea, but at least there would be a chance that some of the dollars would end up in inner city ghettos and Appalachia. The way they're doing it now, all those crisp new dollars are landing in multi-million dollar estates and high rises.
You want inflation? Give the peons money. They'll blow it on everything under the sun EXCEPT stocks and bonds. But not enough opportunity for graft. So all our hot money goes to bankers and their
Cronies.
Silver, Bitchez!
Witches will do probably a better job than ECB since they do magick while the ECB do insanity.
Like Hitlery?
Liquidity trap.
Absolutely.
It needezez it's injectionez. Givez it to us. Our preciousez.
The system is an addict, a vampire.
It does make me wonder how long it can go on. On one hand, because of computers and the net, it will fall fast and hard. On the other hand, because of computers and the net, they can prop it up fast with digital fiction.
None of it is real. Or it is until it isn't.
There was a HFT laser thread the other night. I joked, how fast could a Central Bank print into a lazer speed collapse?
Good post up there on why buying up the board stimulates nothing.
How fast could a Central Bank print into a lazer speed collapse?
Well they don't have to think about that particular problem, when in doubt they just let the exchanges halt all trading ("oh it broke... sorry guys")
So if there ever is a crash, it's probably a concerted effort happening right when they want it to happen
I would also add to what you said and point out that with zero or negative interest rates it reduces savings hence the demand for deposits. So it is a self fulfilling prophecy that the banks become under capitalized as a result of savers pulling out deposits, and the banks reduce loans based off of them further reducing money velocity.
The reason their is "deflation" is for the reason that fewer individuals have money. It doesn't matter how much currency exists in the system what matters is the distribution. Long story short is that fiat currency as debt instrument destroys capital formation.
yes are interest rates a binding constraint on the system??
A good company can borrow borrow money dirt cheap. JNJ just floated 3 year bonds at .7%. So will going to .5% make them build a new factory, develop a new product? I think not. I think the fed is scared shitless to raise rates because the ponzi debt pile will blow up. Each interest rate cut is for the sole purpose of being able to roll existing debt into new lower debt to keep the ponzi humming.
M2 velocity at historic lows
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/
M3 anyone ?
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.
Friedrich Nietzsche
If you double posted , it would be very effective messaging.
IMHO, i dont see the deflation. Yet. Always taught that it can never occur unless losses are RECOGNIZED. As in write off of bad debt. Havent seen that so far because of CB intervention, at every level. Goes to your statement that it is already happening. Hope you are right and the CB's are getting ready. Clears the system and real opportunity is the result. But the desperation to postpone continues. The debts are now held by our governments who only try to avoid telling the public they are on the hook. This is a shit storm.
Exactly.
They can prop up the numbers all they want but the shitstorm is brewing and once people start to feel the effects of this massive fraud called QE it's going to get ugly. The poor are going to feel it first and foremost but their cries will be in vain as always, so it might take another year or two until most of the population is short on cash and in a very bad mood. Until then, they will continue to bleed us dry for all we have.
Why do you think the police state is already being installed? TPTB know what's coming and they need to secure their mansions and their livelihoods with their own private army funded by the taxpayer. Protect and serve bitchez
First minus 3%,
later minus 100%
-100% will be about the same time money is thrown out of copters.
Bail In...Coming soon to an American Bank near you.
Just because...YES WE CAN.
Hugs...JPM Chase
That was exactly my thought too. Start at 3% and go from there.
Boiling frogs strategy...
I agree, the temporary 1% sales tax meme is the camel's nose in the tent.
Insane.
DavidC
fucking amateurs
we -3%'d some folks
War
Negative interest rates will only foster chronic Wall Street devised malinvestment and eventually war.
The simple solution to all of this folly is negative bonus rates for banksters.
Negative interest rates ? Here's where gold comes in handy.
the simple solution is to do what I've been saying for years on here. And time is running out!
Keep stackin' that phyzz, bitchez. And also, for those of you who like to puke out the statement "you can't eat gold"...just for your retarded benefit...you should also stack a lot of long tern storable chow, guns, ammo, fishing/hunting/camping gear, medical supplies, water treaterment/filtration stuff.
I've said it on here 1000 times now.
Silver is STILL (FOR FUCKS SAKE) below the cost of production!!! And, it's on sale ready to scoop up week after week or paycheck after paycheck at 10 or 20 ounces a pop w/ minimal premium and low delivery time. And that is NOT going to last much longer at all...not by a long shot. Get that shit NOW.
Stack all these things now if you haven't started already. I'm assuming most on here have been doing this for quite a few years now. But for you newbies who have luckily found this site and community...study up and get to stackin', bitchez.
This is fight club.
Silver is below who's cost of production? This may be a sort of fight club...but you are fighting China with their fake production numbers and their currency schemes too. Good luck with that.
Precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, lead, copper.
Fertile farmland with access to water.
Good health.
The 'good health' item in your list is a real issue.
If you do not have it, you have no way to get it... not much point in the other prepper points when your health is bad. :-(
Speaking of stacking, just received 40 pounds of 5.56 M855. Wife was all happy about the UPS guy showing up until she saw what she had to haul into the house. I'll wait to ask when she's going to load up the stripper clips.
Ah......livin' la vida loca, eh?
And btw, you owe me for a new keyboard.
Race to the bottom...er, I mean to the top...yay! we all loose...
managea la putana (italian, for mother fucker).
So if interest rates go to -3% does that mean Greece et al can borrow themselves out of debt? Crazy stuff. Or is this just another wealth tax?
If this isn't a case a case for owning gold then what is?
Time for the martians to make themselves known because right now anything is possible.
You don't get it, the CB's of certian countries and the super rich will get negative rates as they circle jerk each others paper up each others collective ass. The rest of us serfs pay 30% yield on credit.
You obviously failed comprehension - "ECB will reduce interest for cash deposits to minus 3%"
"FOR CASH DEPOSITS"
Who are you talking to? He said borrow, not save.
one can not borrow at -3%
it is only ECB that can force the banks to lend to it at -3% (by requiring the banks to have enough reserves to satisfyr basel III requirements)
Big deal! Buy stocks!
Your monies all belong to us.
your monies are all belong to us.
your mommies are all belong to us.
dollar will appreciate by 20%, reaching parity with euro in 2015.
Impossible! Jim Willie says US dollar will not survive 2015:
http://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-willie-us-dollar-will-not-survive-2015/
Its quite possible that Jim Willie is wrong. In fact, its highly likely.
He made it quite clear that he didn't mean the dollar would be non-existent. He meant that the dollar could very likely lose its status in the world, and it very well could.
Jim Willie wrote, and I quote,
The USDollar will not survive the year. It might not vanish this year, but will surely show its eventual destination in the dustbin of history.
That seems pretty damned clear to me.
Fielding Mellish, I will not dispute that it is possible for Jim Willie, Ph.D. to be wrong.
But since you have taken the time, read, and critically analyzed what Jim Willie wrote, then I expect an in depth counterpoint argument to Dr. Willie's analysis of recent events.
Since you have put the quality, "highly likely" that Dr. Willie is wrong then you must have done a Statistical Analysis in order to ascertain a probability.
I know that Jim Willie has a Ph.D. in Statistical Mathematices and has done his homework in determining probabilities.
Do you have a degree in Mathematics and what Statistical Analysis have you done?
Shall I believe your opine over that of a Mathematician? If so, then can you give me a REASONABLE argument as to the reasons I need heed your opinion?
Other than that shall I consider your words as lacking in any foundation?
Not a degree in Mathematics but I do have one in Engineering... two actually. As for Ph.D.'s, Paul Krugman has one so enough said about that. I say he is highly likely to be wrong because after reading his various insights over all the gold bug sites like TF Metals and Silver Doctors over the years I have found him to be incorrect on his predictions more often than not, that is when he says something that can be pinned down with a timeframe. Like most Internet gurus, he reads more like an astrology chart than a useful prediction that can be acted on.
Krugman has one in Economics...which is akin to voodoo.
Nobody can pin down accurate timing unless you are one of the oligarchs who is pulling the strings.
I believe that Willie is a reader of FOFOA and, so far FOFOA's predictions have been rather accurate.
Willie has a list of correct forecasts. I used to believe that his inside source, "The Voice" was Jim Sinclair but Jim is involved in Tanzania Mining in Africa and has been involved in setting up the Shanghai Exchange.
The Voice is a Eoropean Trader and Jim's insights as to what the Merkel Government, the Bundesbank and Deutchbank is doing is quite uncanny.
So what particular predictions of his have failed?
Tall Tom, you think so? about "so far FOFOA's predictions have been rather accurate"?
I noted a certain... reluctance, by FOFOA, to repeat any of the predictions he did about the EUR, years ago. anyway, any links to this "Voice"?
US dollar will survive and probably appreciate even more relative to other currencies simply because majority of the debts are nominated in US dollars and would have to be returned in US dollars
Not that the USD is appreciating, but all other currencies are depreciating. Oil is getting cheaper for the US, but remains expensive for the rest of the world if you think about it. Brent is $60 US. The euro has depreciated about 30% in the past few months.
The Yen is about to collapse again as Japan is showing negative growth and Abenomics will call for more debasement and helicopter drops.
You're going to see the dollar spike in relative terms to other currencies before it collapses. Although a few currencies have hyperinflated the last couple years I think you'll see most currencies if not all go belly up right before the dollar becomes toilet paper.
Normally the dumb money makes their own decision to enter the lair. Now with neg rates being the norm, they're forced the enter the lair. Godspeed my .gov pensioner friends. Long GS.. short humanity.
For everyone else!? Stack, relax, and reload.
Eventually we'll hit the magic -100% interest rate, which is helpfully explained here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNLob2E_Q5s
Those F'ers are all going to be arrested anyhow. Why not arrest them now.
Errrrr, just give us your fucking money already.
You need to pay rent for that money you hold.
Give me a break. They aren't gonna jump 200 basis down on one year. ZH is beginning to jump the shark.
This is like another post from ZH that says buy euro all over it.
And I don't see any reference to JPM quoting anything? Maybe I'm missing it cause it's late and I'm tired?
Oh and also I noticed unauthorized java scripts trying to run on this page and locating tracking warnings showing up recently while being here which I decline.
But WTF are you doing ZH, would you like to blow up like Barry Ritholz's blog did?
Give me a break. Oil is not going to lose half of its price in 6 Months.
LOL
I thought that $60 would be the bottom and called it here on these pages.
Well...I was wrong.
Edit: I made the call when Oil was in the low 90s.
"This is like another post from ZH that says buy euro all over it." where?
Don't you just hate that kind of crap???
yeah, but then I would also have to admit that I have a bit of a correction compulsion and addiction to this kind of crap. but imo the whole article is full of crap from the FT and particularly from JPM
Tyler's sarcasm is poignant, here: "There you have it Denmark. Draghi will see your minus 75 bps and raise you negative 225 on top."
I tend to think that the US megabanks hate this EUR NIRP as "anti-bank", but love the Danish move because they love to have a reason for US bank accounts under negative rates
the ECB's mantra is that they want to force the EZ banks to lend, hence NIRP for banks. we'll see
You want to lol... but then you think... maybe they will....
Arrest Jamie Dimon for treason.
Arrest him yourself!
Wait. This is also great news for Gold.
It's been nothing but good news for gold for the last 3000 years. Name one bit of news that was bad for gold after its $2000/oz peak.
Regardless, here we are.
bullish
May as well make it -100% and be done with it.
Physical cash is going to get a whole lot more scarce.
<---------------------Large groups of intelligent people have decided to go insane
<---------------------I took some really bad acid awhile back
problem with your poll is I can't choose both options at once
A choice for Sanity Bear is a choice for both!
We could get you elected on a platform like that.
I uparrowed Sanity Bear...(I had to.)
Actually, both the dollar and the euro will have reached full parody.
The banksters are testing the water for just outright seizures of 10% or more.
Their getting even more desperate.
Making a bad situation worse.
Won't such a move as this one, if I understand correctly made on deposits, accually accelerate liquidity problems for banks as folks not only withhold depositing new funds, but will want to withdraw from existing accounts? I must be misunderstanding something.
Looks like I picked a good time to book a trip to Austria and Italy if the dollar and Euro are going to get to parity.
Largest wave of retirees in the history of the planet + massive entitlements/pensions/ss/medicare + fiat meltdown + huge deficits and national debt = Clusterfuck of unimaginable scale.
The cliff is here.
On a side note, a surging dollar is good for exports, right?!
Plenty of retiring baby-boomers sold their highly taxed homes in my area. Downsizing and cost-cutting.
No. Good for imports.
Knew back in the 80's that I'd never be able to retire when Congress briefly considered rethinking the social security thing, realized what a political ponzie it was, and dropped any idea of reform. Kind of resigned myself to working to death since.
Wonder if there's going to be a run on Liberty Safes over there....
I like liberty safes, but all of my really valuable stuff is buried in the dirt.
My liberty safe is full of pre-Fukushima tuna.
My other, real, valuables are elsewhere.
I'm pretty certain it's the arsenic and mercury you have to worry about in the tuna, and that predates Fukushima.
I don't EAT that shit...it's for the zombie hoards so they don't totally trash the place.
Maybe it's time for the bottom end consumer, that nobody gives a shit about, to try their own input into the system. You know, just for "experimental purposes". For instance, stop paying your mortgage for about six months, and pay your bills at 90 days. Don't forget to pull all your cash out of the bank and buy gold or silver. Also, start taking payment for your goods using precious metal instead of dollars, and if you run a business, don't forget to lower your prices by 1.5%. That should give the overpaid econs some stuff to chew on.
No wonder they want to ban AR-15 ammo.......
The plan is to drive euro deposits into dollars in American banks just before the coming devaluation of the dollar.
The smart euros will head to the ruble.
Free caviar and time shares in Crimea if you open a 100,000 euro account.
A $100 U.S. Platinum Eagle costs $1300 at CNI. (2) $50 Gold Eagles cost $2500. (100) $1 Silver Eagles cost $1900...So what i'm getting at is that the Platinum Eagle could be the buy here if we go to deflation on the way to debt/currency reset/revaluation.
Yeh.. but why only 3% ? With the Gov taking 50 % the banks should take more. Banks and Gov't are responsbe for a ot of GDP right?
Wha? AAPL and GOLD
"Could Apple Prove a Game-Changer for Gold?"
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/03/03/could-apple-prove-a-game-chang...
"Apple Orders More Than 5 Million Watches for Initial Run"
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/02/17/apple-orders-more-than-5-million-...
Fuc$*ng MORONS everyone of them. First steal the peoples money and then let's have a war. Everyone in their respective country should deal with these idiots as they see fit. What a world!!!
Fuc$*ng MORONS everyone of them. First steal the peoples money and then let's have a war. Everyone in their respective country should deal with these idiots as they see fit. What a world!!!
If it actually happens, that'll definitely spur 'economic activity'.
Wealth creation? Not so much....
Isn't the dollar reaching parity with the Euro the hallmark of a failed continent?
Oh well, the 500 Euro note is still a good medium for drug dealers and arms traffickers.
No, it is not the hallmark of a failed continent. Quite a hyperbole!
which continent, btw?
These people aren't stupid. They have a plan, and it is to have all the money and power in the world. Pretty simple.
Whose money? Yours. Because it's not yours really. You just think that.
I dont see where the deflations going to come from in the EU., Euro is down 35%, and oil is now up 15% from Feb lows.. ie oils likely to be up from here... so we will start to see inflation in Euro (and they know that)
These areticles and Citi bank nonsense that were runnnig out of space for oil storage (panic its going to 20$ soon it will be free), are designed to get people to keep playing the crazy end of these markets (buying bonds close/below zero and sell oil after 50% decline..
ie they know negative rates are not sustainable as they will bankrupt the financial institutions (European banks hold trilling on Govt bonds, make 1/2 that negative and their capital base will erode yearly reducing their loan ability and making them vulnerable to bankruptcy)
ie yes they want you to buy or invest cause inflations coming and their unloanding.. their bonds reducing duration..
go ahead load up on French 10y at 0.60%.. their cheap...its going to negative 3% JPM told me hurry..
hello....
Negative three percent, per day? Per minute? Per picosecond?
Found a historical link for why we see Strong Central Power in Europe, USA, and other Countries. And if there is a special Anglo-USA power globally it also fits in well with narrative about Power in England that lead to the Strong Monarch & Modern English Empire.
Since this article is about ECB it fits with what we know about the "Troika (Greek debt crisis) of the International Monetary Fund, European Union and the European Central Bank."
"The Plantagenet’s conclusive defeat in the Hundred Years' War broke confidence in the status quo and through the burden of taxes raised to support the war they played a part in devastating the English economy. Several popular revolts demanded greater rights and freedoms for the general population. Crime increased as soldiers returned destitute from France, the nobility raised private armies, pursued private feuds and defied the weak leadership of Henry VI. Throughout the Plantagenet period there was continual rivalry between the members of the family, but no English dynasty was as successful in passing the crown to a succeeding generation as the Plantagenets from 1189 to 1377. The political and economic situation, combined with the splintering of the dynasty into competing cadet branches—the House of York and House of Lancaster—in the 15th century, developed these regular conflicts into the internecine strife later named the Wars of the Roses."
"These events culminated in 1485 with the death of the last Plantagenet king—Richard III—at the Battle of Bosworth Field. This marks the end of Plantagenet power and the Middle Ages in England for many historians."
"The succeeding Tudor dynasty were able to resolve many of the problems that beset the later Plantagenets through centralising royal power, by which they provided the necessary stability for an English Renaissance and the beginnings of Early modern Britain."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Plantagenet
Of course we now see State & County Power pale in comparison to Federal Power in the USA. We just wonder if the Bankers are the Royal Families behind the USA.
Yes but you forget France which was key to the Plantagenets and the Tudor Succession which depended on murdering the Plantagenet heirs. The main thing is that with the House of York and the House of Lancaster removed from the Succession the North of England lost its influence in London much like Reconstruction South in the USA.
The fact that York was a powerful political centre and the nation had a balance was lost and the focus on London had a major impact on economic power which the Industrial Revolution addressed only temporarily
The tradition of strong central power in Europe began with Caesar; went on to Frankish christian Holy Empire; Charlemagne's the "baptism or death" meme; and then went inter-continental on the basis of Crusades in clash of civilization to conquer both orthodox Constantinople and Holy land (only to lose both subsequently).
Subsequently France and Germany vied for power on continent and France and England tried to resolve their rivalry based on same Franco-Norman blood line (Plantagenets vs Capetians) in two one hundred year wars (1101-1215) and (1338-1453).
By then we entered into the nation state vs feudal conundrum and France and Spain were the first to go nation state under Francis I vs Charles V Italian wars (along with Tudor England) over who would wear Charlemagne's tattered mantle. All the while Soleiman's Ottoman Empire showed a temporary resurgence of Muslim "Troy".
The fundamental difference between English government culture and European government culture is the divide which occurred in 1215 : France went absolutist and centralised under Philip Augustus and England had Magna Carta and the noble's revolt under Simon of Monfort which ensured that English kings would NEVER be absolutist monarchs and would share power with the nobles in Parliament (except for the Stewarts period where catholic kings, sons of Mary of Scots, tried to ape the French and lost leading to the velvet revolution of parliamentary rule in 1685).
Both France and Germany have opted for the Roman Law tradition of centralised power; whereas the british law tradition is "common law"; aka not top down via a constitution (which defines moral codes--Liber Augustalis and Justinian's codex) but bottom up logic via popular jurisprudence.
During the Imperial colonial age fueled by industrial revolution and Enlightenment, the Pax Britannica construct took the British to a new power pinnacle which was built on the Metternichtian balance between continental powers giving a free hand to Britain's "rule the waves" colonial gunboat diplomacy to conquer a decadent Asia and tribal Africa.
That collapsed under German defiance in the 1914/1945 Armageddon of nation state Europe.
The current Pax Americana construct cannot revert to the nation state model (whatever the populists or Putinists may think). But it has not found an efficient paradigm for creating world governance; having relapsed into a hegemonial Charles V universal empire matrix based on "massive military supremacy" and shock and awe" tactics to control BLACK GOLD, the industrial life line of our current age.
Pax Americana will die for the same reasons that the Habsburgian and British Empires died : out of asymptotic inefficiency of a corrupted paradigm based on a false MINDSET (Catholic Inquisitorial hegemony or mercantile pilfering and "white man's burden" type sleights of hand; all contrary to Time's arrow of creating a more humanist world culture).
As we see today the ECB plays are now going after this age's conquistadors who built this unversal empire : the universal banks and their Oligarchy "slave labour arb paymasters" of current globalization. Just like then, the conquistadors could not sustain their devastating hold on conquered lands. And the Habsburgs spent more on their wars than what was in their coffers of Montezuma's robbed gold and silver.
It ended in Europe's total reconfiguration started by the French revolution and corrupted by Napoleon's abandonment of Bonaparte's fulgurance reverting to ageold Imperial dreams that ended in Moscow, setting the stage for Pax Britannica.
The Statist boomerang will be required to stop the current fiat rot and is gonna have to dry out the playing fields of the Banksta casinos via negative rates; condemning in the process the world oligarchy model based on slave labour, "cheap RM" and UNLIMITED debt.
The US Empire now turns on its own elitist sons, just like then it destroyed the hold of the Jesuits/catholic zealots on "barbarians have no souls" meme of Cortez's and Pizarro's mayhem. We see the same problem as Pax Americana now tries to extirpate itself from Netty yahoo and Sunni Salafist "take no infidels or apostates alive" memes that were the two rotten planks of GWB's previous neo-con Crusade. Having built the Saud-Israel axis to protect oil hegemony and counter Ayatollah zeal the US MIC elites are now hanging to their own rope.
Quo Vadis Pax Americana ?
Here's wishing that as a conclusion to what you wrote above that you would have ventured a guess as to what will be the eventual outcome of this transitional epoch.
Enjoyable nontheless
hanging to their own ropes...
Is the trajectory. As to the finality I have no crystal ball and I don't believe in predestiny.
So all a historical analogist can say is : we've been here before but analogy is not causation.
Add your own conclusion; its called free will and its as good as mine.
Someone figured out a way to pick up a cool $5Mil.
Armed Robbers Steal $4.8 Million in Gold During Daring HeistRBS is shrinking its I-Bank, Barcap is shrinking, Deutsche Bank wants to increase ROE and may shrink its I-Bank........so how do these shrinking I-Banks offload their Derivatives Book ?
GILZE RIJEN, The Netherlands — The investigators looking into the downing of flight MH17 last July over Ukraine say it probably was hit by a Russian-made “Buk missile.”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/03/04/shards-of-truth-in-mh17...
Perhaps you should watch THIS , sonny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-J4P3rChc0
You truly are a shit for brains idiot LOL
Daily Beast? hahah
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-J4P3rChc0
Check your BS before smearing it here out of thread.
http://rt.com/news/237961-ukraine-media-mh17-dutch/
i can hold your cash safe for a lower than 3% fee, so keep the cash with me not with ECB
there is no cheese
@-3% who will still have bankdeposits?
can a bank survive without bankdeposits? no.
so unless they have an interbank lending agreement there will never be any -3%. And even if they have an agreement, what is the banking industry worth when people disconnected from it?
It's just a measure of desperation now. We're coming to the end of it, just as a 20% rise in the dollar will destroy its function as a global reserve currency.
QE provides bank deposits becase the banks (primary dealers) are the sellers. Banks don't need any stinkin' retail deposits when they get trillions from the ECB.
And if the currency goes all-electronic, there is no way to get a Euro out of the banking system, no matter how negative the rate becomes.
Euro collapse: 1.10/1 this morning vs 1.40/1 a couple of months ago, a 21% decrease.
And I always find some economists that say weak Euro is good...
All what I see is that we are going Venezuelan, a collapse of 21% in eight months is not normal for an economy if the size of the Eurozone !
And I think we head to parity the next months.
If the oil goes slightly up we are screwed !
I just found this chart about three important data on Italy . Public debt , Gross National product (PIL ) and percentage of Interest of Iltalian Bonds . Catastrofic chart
http://www.comedonchisciotte.org/site/modules.php?name=News&file=article...
Netwerk @RaadvanState: "Ik kan u niet vertellen wat er binnen het OM is gebeurd. Het past niet aan ex-officieren van justitie om mededelingen erover te doen."
minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem van Financiën spreekt vandaag nog steeds niet over de invoering van het DAB-systeem, maar alleen over 'een verlaging van de belasting op arbeid die in het nieuwe belastingplan is voorzien'?!?!?
http://www.volkskrant.nl/dossier-kabinet-rutte-ii/dijsselbloem-cpb-cijfe...
Blijkbaar wil netwerk @MinPres nog steeds niet het SCHULD=H00P-principe opgeven. Uit de brief van het Centraal Fonds Volkshuisvesting (CFV) aan minister Stef Blok (Wonen, VVD) staat niets hoe (voormalige) politici de huurpenningen hebben misbruikt voor ...
http://www.nrcq.nl/2015/03/05/onderzoek-naar-vestia-achtige-praktijken-b...
Het gerucht dat '@GuusjA na de Troonrede van 2012 naar alle ambassades in Den Haag is geweest om daar het A4'tje met de 'theorie van Alles' achter te laten' is niet waar. De 'participatie-maatschappij' van Rutte II is dus niet gelekt via de ambassades.
http://www.ftm.nl/exclusive/derivaten-vestia-dijsselbloem-publieke-intst...
Perhaps the New World Order means a currency reset around the globe. Maybe we can get the under-developed nations with large populations to pick up our debt payments too.
Japan 1989 – Enormous property bubble bursts
Japanese hide bad debts on banks’ balance sheets and use QE and low interest rates to keep things going.
Result – stagnation.
US 2008 – Enormous property bubble bursts
US and Europe hide bad debts on banks’ balance sheets and use QE and low interest rates to keep things going.
Result – stagnation.
Einstein’s definition of madness - “Doing the same thing again and again and expecting to get different results”.
("I am sure it will be different this time Mario - you lunatic." Albert Einstein)
Einstein’s definition of madness - “Doing the same thing again and again and expecting to get different results”.
The real irony is how this phrase is repeated ad nauseum nowadays. Talk about insanity.
"ECB will reduce interest for cash deposits to minus 3% and the dollar [will] appreciate by 20%, reaching parity with euro in 2015"
Ahem... 1.11*.2 = .222 / 1.11-.22 = .78 US cents : 1€
Debt jubilee coming at some point in time. I see no other way to fix this. Of course those with physical assets will come out ahead. There are time I wish I had taken the blue pill.
I am an ole fart, well my sons call me an ole fart but they are the ones I worry about along with my grand children. At some point in time the debt must be repudiated. I think that is the root of the problem. We have more debt then production will ever be able to repay.
What is fucked up is good people will no longer be able to be independent. Everyone on the planet will be dependent on mother government and all private industry will become extinct. All contolled by centralised government. RFID chips for all and basically the worlds population once they are done culling the herds will have evolved into basically ants.
I hope I am not around to see this to be honest and I hate typing this shit as we the people allowed this to happen in the name of greed and consumerism. All my life I thought I was doing the right thing by living within my means and planning and working towards the days of my older years to be independent. What a sucker I was but at least I do not have any debt. Who really cares anymore. Might as well go out speand like there is no more tomorrow and join the herd.
Hell I do not even have a credit card and have no use for one. I pay cash or go without. No matter how you or I look at this mess there is no positive outcome. My advice is to enjoy family and like minded friends and prepare for the worst. Get some productive land with good water and go local. Local is where it is at in my mind anyway. Those of you in large metropolitan areas are basically screwed in my mind. Tough to grow food on asphalt. Three days supply is all that is on hand.
No regrets, GTC.
Not having debt is an achievement.
Draghi is not fighting with one hand tied. That is an undue compliment. He knows that the EC structure is not Japan or China which are nations that can ameliorate less pains for their People in this Currency War. Yet, he follows with consequences to speed up the devastations of the PIIGS. HE is no GENERAL in a War.
In a contest of who goes under first, it looks the Euro. Much to the delight of US, Japan and China for it buy them time from the Currency Predators.
When markets know that you have reached your limits, they dare you.