This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

This is Going to Push the US into Recession and Crush Stocks

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

February was a great month for stocks because of:

 

1)   Rampant stock buybacks by corporations

2)   Performance gaming by investment funds that were in damage control after one of the worst years (only 20% of them beat the market in 2014) and worst months (CRAP) in recent history.

3)   Stocks are propped up by endless Central Bank intervention (we’re now at 20 interest rate cuts and counting).

 

Desperate times call for desperate measures. Despite the clear manipulation generating a 6+% ramp job in stocks in a single month, the US Dollar continues to CRUSH them year to date.

 

 

This is actually par for the course. The US Dollar actually produced the SAME return as stocks last year. You could have avoided all of the volatility of the stock market and seen the same return just sitting in cash.

 

And this is despite the Fed spending over $650 billion that year propping stocks up, not to mention the constant verbal interventions by Fed officials every time stocks began to collapse.

 

 

Interestingly enough, it is the US Dollar that will likely cause the stock market to crash. Stocks today are priced for economic perfection… at the very time that the US Dollar rally has imploded corporate profits and sales.

 

As Albert Edwards from Societe General recently noted, the recent collapse in profits is occurring at a pace usually associated with recessions.

 

 

The culprit? The US Dollar, which has demolished earnings for corporates across the board. The talking heads on bubble vision claim that a strong dollar only hurts energy stocks, but the reality is that earnings per share projections are collapsing across the board (as the above chart shows).

 

The next crisis is coming. And the Fed won’t be able to stop it. Globally the US Dollar carry trade is over $9 trillion. The Fed couldn’t announce a QE equal to even one third of that without losing whatever credibility and political capital it has left.

 

The time to prepare is now, BEFORE the crash hits.

 

If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for the second round of the financial crisis, we offer a FREE investment report Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines easy, simple to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits.

 

You can pick up a FREE copy at:

 

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html

 

 

Best Regards

 

Graham Summers

 

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 03/04/2015 - 20:18 | 5855840 Herdee
Herdee's picture

But on top of a strong American Dollar which some complain is deflationary to commodities,you have China no longer buying U.S. Treasuries and instead removing money for the following economic reasons in the link.If she goes down,watch out because it's called CONTAGION;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/114506...

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 18:06 | 5855392 ableman28
ableman28's picture

Someday Phoenix is gonna be right, I just know it, someday.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 15:25 | 5854838 Some Bloke
Some Bloke's picture

4 years ago I started reading zh and the articles like this one and allowed myself to be convinced that the share market would collapse, so took my Superannuation out of stocks and bought some gold and put options.
Yeah that's worked out well, and I've only cost myself about a 40% return.
This Phoenix Cap mob is the preacher on the road yelling at passers by that the world will end, and we must repent.

How about a ZH article on how often Phoenix about how their constant calls of impending doom have proven incorrect again and again and again...

Nothing but a cracked record or busted up cuckoo clock

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 16:17 | 5854960 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

"Always trade in the same direction as your oligarchs...they are oligarchs for a reason." A painful lesson I've learned in the past few years as well.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 15:09 | 5854794 ben_bernanke
ben_bernanke's picture

I thought the dollar crash was supposed to ruin stocks. Now it's the dollar surge? It can't be both. The dollar is surging because the US is running circles around other nations economically. Wake up and spin it correctly. That is the ONLY interpretation, since stocks have been powering on despite the stronger dollar.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 15:53 | 5854900 hootowl
hootowl's picture

Multiplicity of stock buybacks, Bennie....BUYBACKS!!!!

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 14:35 | 5854690 badger10
badger10's picture

AUDIT THE FED!

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 13:45 | 5854517 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

tHIS CLOWN sUMMERS SAID THSAME THING CIRCA 2010

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 13:17 | 5854424 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

When wil this happen?

And when you say "crush stocks" do you mean a gain of 5000 instead of 3000?  Or a bad loss?  Or Orange Crush (the drink) them?

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 12:59 | 5854357 JRobby
JRobby's picture

A real market with normalized interest rates and efficient price discovery is a delicate balance that moves to and fro.

This manipulated shit show can only = VOLITILITY - CRASH - LARGER INTERVENTION - REPEAT

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 12:41 | 5854274 disgruntled hou...
disgruntled housewife's picture

Something is going to happen soon. My bet is this fall like all the other major crashes. Bernanke was speaking to a group recently and put out the idea that the President should have the power to declare an economic emergency- giving him the power to determine the course of action to be taken to bypass Congress. I believe I read this on Liberty Blitzkreig- you can find a link on the left hand margin of this site above.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 15:39 | 5854867 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

????//WTF?

Economic Emergency has been the justification for eveything the Fed has done for the last 7 years, who needs the Presdent?

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 11:44 | 5854020 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Author thinks there's been a recovery? When was that?

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 10:39 | 5853739 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I got this weird feeling that the author of this piece thinks markets are manipulated with no actual price discovery based on fundamentals. This seems quite bullish for tinfoil. 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 11:59 | 5854086 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

The author wants to sell gold and silver. Same bullshit story out of pheonix the markets will collapse when they can buy the stawks any moar NEVER

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 10:34 | 5853722 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

"The US Dollar actually produced the SAME return as stocks last year. You could have avoided all of the volatility of the stock market and seen the same return just sitting in cash."

 

Not entirely accurate, though I get the point.  If you sat in cash last year, you certainly did not earn the same return as the S&P 500.  However, had you gone long the US dollar Index (short a basket of other international currencies), you would have earned a very nice return.  Somewhat less volatility, but not volatility free.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 11:11 | 5853855 cifo
cifo's picture

I stopped reading the article right there.

 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 11:11 | 5853854 cifo
cifo's picture

.

 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 10:22 | 5853677 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Wait, when did we exit the last recession?

 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 10:16 | 5853655 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

And on a lighter note                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Bill and Hillary are now married 40 years. When they first got married, Bill said, "I am putting a box under the bed. You must promise never to look in it." In all their 40 years of marriage, Hillary never looked. However, on the afternoon of their 40th anniversary, curiosity got the best of her, and she lifted the lid and peeked inside. In the box were 3 empty beer cans and $1,874.25 in cash. She closed the box and put it back under the bed. Now that she knew what was in the box, she was doubly curious as to why.


That evening they were out for a special dinner. After dinner Hillary could no longer contain her curiosity and she confessed and said "I am so sorry. For all these years I kept my promise and never looked into the box under our bed. However, today the temptation was too much, and I gave in. But now I need to know why do you keep the empty cans in the box?"

Bill thought for a while and said, "I guess after all these years you deserve to know the truth. Whenever I was unfaithful to you I put an empty beer can in the box under the bed to remind myself not to do it again."

Hillary was shocked, but said, "I am very disappointed and saddened, but I guess after all those years away from home on the road, temptation does happen and I guess that a few times is not that bad considering the years."

They hugged and made their peace. A little while later Hillary asked Bill, "Why do you have all that money in the box?"

Bill answered, "Whenever the box filled with empty cans, I cashed them in."

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 16:01 | 5854919 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

"There ain't nuthin uglier than an old white woman."  Fred Sanford, Sanford and Son....

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 13:20 | 5854433 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Hillary(!) was actually in the same building as Bill recently?  Just too far fetched...

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 10:10 | 5853634 oudinot
oudinot's picture

Not the same return last year for stocks and dollar bulls:  stocks pay dividends, dollar short term paper has roughly 0 interest attached.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 10:23 | 5853681 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

all that shits priced in before you buy it....  + broker fees and the stress and volatility.  

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 13:44 | 5854515 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

It's hope and change all the way down. This is merely the prologue, this little passion play is about to get serious.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 16:53 | 5855127 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

WOW,

Thanks for the warning about the impending market crash.

I was going to subscribe to your newslettr, but......

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 19:41 | 5855732 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

What newsletter is that?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!