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Mark Cuban Warns: This Bubble Is Far Worse Than The Tech Bubble Of 2000

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just over a year ago, we warned that while the world of speculative capital is focused intently on the Twitter and Facebook #Ref/0 fundamental valuations in the publicly-traded equity markets, the real dot-com 2.0 bubble is occurring in the private markets. Few paid attention, prefering the head in the sand "well the music is still playing" meme; but one (or two) billionaires noticed, and with all eyes intently focused on Nasdaq 5,000 (as some indicator that we made it back to Nirvana), Mark Cuban unleashes uncontestible exposition why is this bubble far worse than the tech bubble of 2000.

It is different this time... and, as Mark Cuban explains, far worse...

Ah the good old days.  Stocks up $25, $50, $100 more in a single day.  Day trading was all the rage.  Anyone and everyone you talked to had a story about how they had made a ton of money on such and such a stock. In an hour.  Stock trading millionaires were being minted by the week, if not sooner.

 

You couldn’t go anywhere without people talking about the stock market.  Everyone was in or new someone who was in. There were hundreds of companies that were coming public and could easily be bought and sold.  You just pick a stock and buy it. Then you pray it goes up. Which most days it did.

 

Then it ended. Slowly by surely the air came out of the bubble and the stock markets declined and declined till the air was completely gone.  The good news was that some people were able to see it coming and get out. The bad is that others were able to get out, but at significant losses.

 

If we thought it was stupid to invest in public internet websites that had no chance of succeeding back then, it’s worse today.

 

In a bubble there is always someone with a “great” idea pitching an investor the dream of a billion dollar payout with a comparison to an existing success story.  In the tech bubble it was Broadcast.com, AOL, Netscape, etc.  Today its, Uber, Twitter, Facebook, etc.

 

To the investor, its the hope of a huge payout.  But there is one critical difference.  Back then the companies  the general public was investing in were public companies. They may have been horrible companies, but being public meant that investors had liquidity to sell their stocks.

 

The bubble today comes from private investors who are investing in apps and small tech companies.

 

Just like back then there were always people telling you their idea for a new website or about the public website they invested in, today people always have what essentially boils down to an app that they want you to invest in.  But unlike back then when the dream of riches was from a public company, now its from a private company.  And there in lies the rub.

 

People we used to call individual or small investors, are now called Angels.  Angels. Why do they call them Angels ? Maybe because they grant wishes ?

 

According to some data I found, there are 225k Angels in the US. Like the crazy days of the internet boom,  I wonder how many realize what they have gotten into ?

 

But they are not alone.

 

For those who can’t figure out how to be Angels. You can sign up to be part of the new excitement called Equity Crowd Funding. Equity Crowd Funding allows you to join the masses to chase investments with as little as 5k dollars.  Oh the possibilities !!

 

I have absolutely not doubt in my mind that most of these individual Angels and crowd funders are currently under water in their investments. Absolutely none. I say most. The percentage could be higher

 

Why ?

 

Because there is ZERO liquidity for any of those investments. None. Zero. Zip. 

 

All those Angel investments in all those apps and startups.  All that crowdfunded equity. All in search of their unicorn because the only real salvation right now is an exit or cash pay out from operations.  The SEC made sure that there is no market for any of these companies to go public and create liquidity for their Angels.  The market for sub 25mm dollar raises is effectively dead. DOA . Gone. Thanks SEC. And with the new Equity CrowdFunding rules yet to be finalized, there is no reason to believe that the SEC will be smart enough to create some form of liquidity for all those widows and orphans who will put their $5k into the dream only to realize they can’t get any cash back when they need money to fix their car

 

So why is this bubble far worse than the tech bubble of 2000 ?

 

Because the only thing worse than a market with collapsing valuations is a market with no valuations and no liquidity.

 

If stock in a company is worth what somebody will pay for it, what is the stock of a company worth when there is no place to sell it ?

*  *  *

Of course, tomorrow's mainstream business media channels will trot out various asset-gatherers and commssion-takers who will denigrate Mr. Cuban's clarifications - just as they did Janet Yellen's Biotech warnings last year - but the question is: who do you believe? The billionaire with no ax to grind or the market maven "TV personality" with vested interests up the wazoo?

*  *  *

If examples are needed, see below...

Click image for interactive and sortable WSJ infographic

 

Source: WSJ

*  *  *

 

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Wed, 03/04/2015 - 20:52 | 5855963 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

There are no bad bubbles if you know how and when to short them. Of course under this administration and the Fed's new top secret rules, shorting and winning could result in summary execution...

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:08 | 5855998 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

Let's not forget that shorting stocks (even if timed well) will not mitigate potential counterparty risk. 

In a post-crisis financial world which is (still) awash with leverage, there is no guarantee that your broker will still be solvent.

Edit: also, I think I'd sooner look abroad.  The US is doing "well" right now because everyone else has a steaming turd of an economy.  I believe that China may see a stock market crash before the US.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:16 | 5856038 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The Western World is currently under ZIRP (or is that NIRP).  But not the whole world.  In countries where mortgage rates top 9%, there will definitely be a place for equity crowdfunding.  Its more of an unsecured loan than it is a stock purchase.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:47 | 5856094 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

I do certainly agree that equity funding a start-up, or a small business comes with major risks and some assholes seem to be happy to throw cash at businesses with very little substance.  In essence chasing flashy pitches over concrete revenue generating assets.

That's fine if you're equity funding a marketing start-up, but for everything else you can expect a big fat zero in terms of profit booked. 

(In fact, let's not forget that.. a REAL small business with REAL potential, will have a whole range of opportunities open to it, such as debt financing via banks, or more favorable terms from some serious angel investors.  When I look at a lot of the crowdfunding pitches, I am quite certain that the weakest companies utilize this kind of funding to stay afloat, purely because the investors are typically rather unsophisticated, or are the investors themselves, in turn, unable to navigate more established equity markets.  

And in that sense you might as well be betting on horses, or a coin toss.) 

PS: Don't forget that if you did invest in an equity stake of a crowdfunded business, and that business happened to have loans on their books as liabilities, the creditor would be legally entitled to the assets in the event of bankruptcy ahead of you.  You would probably assume a 100% loss of your principal, and would have to rely upon extracting enough profit from the business before it went bankrupt for the investment to be in the black.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:51 | 5856192 max2205
max2205's picture

Annnnndddddd it's gone!

 

It will take about 3 months to burn what cash there is left....boom.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 22:45 | 5856376 Midas
Midas's picture

A question for the community.  I remember during the tech bubble having to listen to everyone brag about how much money they were "making" because the stock prices were going up day after day.  This last run up I haven't been hearing any of that from my co-workers or family members.  Should I be hanging out with algos, HAL2000, and executives from TBTF banks to catch up on the bragging?

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 22:58 | 5856419 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

Honestly most people haven't re-entered stocks.  They are still wary of them.  I believe stocks haven't seen the highest highs yet for that reason..  I expect that will change as the US stock indexes really take off once various other countries start to implode.  Typically once everyone you know is talking about stocks this and stocks that, it is time to sell and get the hell out of dodge.

We haven't hit the "greed" stage of the market cycle yet. 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:13 | 5856468 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

 

You know it's time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips. This bull market is over.

-- Joseph Kennedy 1929

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:27 | 5856491 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

The same thing happened end of '13 with Bitcoin. Everyone I knew was buying into it.  After two people who had absolutely no business investing (totally clueless assholes) messaged me, and I read an article about Bitcoin in the WSJ (and correctly surmised some people with big market shares needed muppets to offload to, and liquidity was tight) I suggested to people to sell.

Nobody did of course, because, y'know.. people are headstrong.  The market crashed from ~1000 USD/Bitcoin the following week. 

NB: I should have shorted. 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 00:12 | 5856568 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

i occasionally listen to clark howard in the car if my kid is with me, and I remember hearing people calling in and asking him  "should I buy some of those bitcoin things i keep hearing about" and thinking to myself that this bitcoin mania has just about reached its top if older people who listen to clark howard are calling to ask about this. sure enough, not long afte that it began its steady decline

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 00:16 | 5856580 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

Yeah.. around my entire economics school, everyone was talking about Bitcoin this, Bitcoin that.  Those two guys who messaged me weren't even in investing circles.  One is an IT technician, the other was flipping burgers.  Nothing against them as individuals of course, both good people, but not exactly up to date on markets.

In other news the EUR is back to its slide against the dollar this morning.. 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 01:58 | 5856724 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Shitcoin; another binary distraction almost as bad as politicians.

The key point in Cuban's article is "no one to sell too".  You just know that the founders and insiders sold at the top and it is the yield chasing retirees and wide-eyed iMillenial and AO ("Always On") generations that are buying and holding this crap.

Just think of Pets.com and their ilk, and the resulting slaughter in 2000-2001.  Lather, rinse, repeat.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 04:57 | 5856811 Cliff Claven Cheers
Cliff Claven Cheers's picture

Since when does this Cuban mofo care about widows and orphans?  Every week those shark tank dudes buy shares of companies and then build the products in China at pennies on the dollar versus the US, why because of pollution.  Mark Cuban is helping pollute China to make a buck for himself and actually creating widows and orphans.   Watch this video and see what that low life MofO is contributing to:

Chai Jing's review: Under the Dome – Investigating China’s Smog
Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:08 | 5858120 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Wishful thinking that 'retail' has any discretionary $$$ to 'invest' in equities. Too much debt, too much 'inflation' in necessities, and too much BS in the media for that. Many learned a lesson and the CNBC's just reinforce it as it was the same BS they spewed as that bubble burst. No. I suspect only the 'big boys' have much of a stake in this bubble unlike the late 90's bull run...Will be interesting to see the carnage when reality finally rears its ugly head... IMO the next "bubble' that Joe Sixpak participates in will be the Gold/Silver bubble which is imminent...

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:40 | 5856520 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

  "I remember during the tech bubble having to listen to everyone brag about how much money they were "making" because the stock prices were going up day after day.  This last run up I haven't been hearing any of that from my co-workers or family members."

 

You'll hear from them, just as soon as they claw their way out of the holes they dug for themselves in 2001 and 2008.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 22:50 | 5856399 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

The companies that Cuban is talking about are not the billion dollar cap companies like Dropbox that could IPO tomorrow.  Those are funded by VCs not crowdfunding.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:06 | 5856449 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

It's true and 99.999% of those crowdfunded companies are just an ATM for the owners right now.  Little-no revenue generation, in many cases highly dependent on (paltry) small business grants.

A lot of people are going to lose their investments in entirety.  I've been watching Crowdcube myself (UK based crowdfunding company).  I have not found a single investment worth pursuing after 8 months.  I'd sooner buy scratch cards.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 00:48 | 5856642 Greshams Law
Greshams Law's picture

I think you're on to something. Let's crowdfund a company that buys scratch cards. I'll call it CrowdScratch.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 02:05 | 5856733 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

Too reminiscent of a Scabies outbreak (common in Psych Residential facilities, even today!)

Something to give 'em a sense of "ownership"? How about "My Lotto" or similar??

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 00:09 | 5856565 delacroix
delacroix's picture

it's not uncommon for a broker to recall stock they loaned you to sell short, forcing you to buy to cover,  usually at a loss, just before it moves in the direction where you would profit.  scottrade has done this 3 times to me personally.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 00:25 | 5856596 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

I guess if they are doing the loaning, their loss is your gain.  They are obviously trying to mitigate the risk on their end.  Shitty thing to do though. 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:22 | 5857938 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Reason 1a why I switched to buying puts, had the same shit happen to me back in early 2008.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:15 | 5856034 confederacy of ...
confederacy of the dunces's picture

Tyler(s) is/are running out of material. I am an uber-bear, but you have to admit, the Fed has pushed this thing so much further than any bear ever thought possible. It is amazing how the the duct-tape and bubble gum is holding this thing together. Hell, I am even staring to think logic does not matter in the new normal world we live in...wait, fuck that,  the thing will crumble -- just don't know when?

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:53 | 5856203 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

It really doesn't seem to take that much when the players have only one casino and they can't cash their chips in anywhere else. For the bubble to pop requires someplace for the money to flow to and there is no place left. So the band plays on.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 10:29 | 5857341 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

The last crash happend in the September of a two-term president's last full year of his last term. Expect similar but not identical timing this time. You heard it here first.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:30 | 5858458 juantrades
juantrades's picture

It would certainly be a big coincidence.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:02 | 5856435 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I too, never thought I'd see anything like this. But then again, you gotta remember that not in the history of the United States have we ever had zombie banks, QE, and ZIRP maybe NIRP. This shit is unprecedented and so is this distorted bubble. When you thnk of it that way- at least for me- I stop drooling. 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:10 | 5856461 jameswvu99
jameswvu99's picture

I agree, and now feel this bubble will be bigger than the Tech and real estate put together. 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 03:05 | 5856792 lucyvp
lucyvp's picture

in the bubble of 2000, i traded cisco for clorox and did well.  in the bubble of 2007 i traded spy for treasuries and did well, I dont see any undervalued asset now.   maybe gold,  but i dont think it is way under valued.  there is know where to hide.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 09:04 | 5857050 saints51
saints51's picture

My personal opinion: gold is expensive. I think Silver is the only undervalued asset in the market today.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:30 | 5857961 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"I dont see any undervalued asset now."

I would say anything related to crude oil is pretty much a no-brainer undervalued asset.  Anyone still making money at these prices is a buy.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 01:56 | 5856721 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Atlanta's Fed Pres, Lockhart, grew up in Bakersfield, CA.  He'd be pretty familiar with baling wire (as well as duct-tape, bubble gum, WD-40) and redneck engineering.  He's the key to how this has been supported all this time.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 04:13 | 5856847 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Don't forget!

 

Mark Cuban's a dumbshit.

A blind squirrel finds a nut...but still a shill.

RIPS

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:23 | 5856063 NoPension
NoPension's picture

How do you short a " stock" when there is no stock or market?
WTF am I missing?
Wasn't that the point of the article?

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:52 | 5856200 daveO
daveO's picture

Don't forget circuit breakers. Rigged.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 01:05 | 5856664 Cornfedbloodstool
Cornfedbloodstool's picture

Is this the Dallas mavericks owner Mark Cuban?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 04:15 | 5856760 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

My last bad bubble had a bathtub around it.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 10:49 | 5857378 VangelV
VangelV's picture

I disagree. Bubbles are created by an artificial lowering of interest rates and the creation of debt and money by the regulated financial system.  They are a sign of malinvestment, which makes individuals poorer, creates more waste, and lowers the real standard of living.  To think that an ordinary indivdual can 'trade' bubbles is the ultimate in folly.  

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 21:38 | 5859685 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

No.  Bubbles are always bad.  Bubbles mean malinvestment, waste, fraud, and theft - someone has to lose and that is a drain on our species even if seemingly insignifcant.  Explain how insignificant it is to the child of a 7-11 cashier shot during a robbery by a desperado who was financially layed low by a bubble bursting.  Broken windows are bad.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 20:53 | 5855965 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

Loathe him, dont know why....

 

Might be because he is Boring

A dork

A charlatan

Ubiquitous

A copy cat

a NO Shark

Got LUCKY

did i say boring?

Fuck you Cuban

And this is not jealousy talking..

 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 20:57 | 5855979 nuubee
nuubee's picture

He's just never struck me as a particularly smart guy. He may be rich, but it's hard to respect him as a man. That's just me.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:01 | 5855988 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

Agree, whats with all his sychophants down voting me on ZH?...too funny...bunch of shark watching lovers...

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:48 | 5856179 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

My fave Cuban quote was about Bryant's rape case, and I quote, "From a business perspective, it's great for the NBA."

Jackass.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:40 | 5858007 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Met him down in MIA at the afterparty @ Fontainbleu post-Mavs championship, pretty down to earth dude oddly enough.  Has a strong bullshit detector.  Treats his employees well.  Seems like a solid dude.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:33 | 5856112 D-2
D-2's picture

Sounds like jealousy to me.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:54 | 5856208 daveO
daveO's picture

I had no opinion until Kudlow and Cramer took him to task for his anti-tribal comments. When I saw Cramer's fake, sad puppy dog expression, I thought to myself, this Cuban guy's got it together.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 22:18 | 5856294 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

I like Mark Cuban for the same reason I like Charles Barkley.  They think for themselves, are unafraid of what others think, and freely speak their mind...

Rare men.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 22:32 | 5856329 unieater
unieater's picture

It something we all are familiar with MCS (Mark Cuban Syndrome) defined as “When you have so much money, you think your opinion matters!” 

No one cares what he thinks except those fools that watch Shark Tank!!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 05:08 | 5856888 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

I walk by the TV my wife insists we have to have (she sleeps with the gabble on, I'm relegated to the couch or/(usually) spare room) television.  Fuck, don't know how long we've been married since 2/14/79, some one younger figger that shit out, but it's been a long, long, time to the point that we no longer envision pounding the others head in with a ball peen hammer, severing such with a boy scout knife, then shoving up her ass...um, hers involves a different bodily function but results in a similar outcome, so we both watch out for each other.

All I know about M Cuban is that he's on some show my wife wants to see. 

All I want is to read Zero Hedge comments to learn what happened in the world.  ({TOOTHLESS EVIL GRIN}  (yeah, really they're all gone...)  I'm a ZH GEEZER, agewise.  Surround me with Kumbayas and hatespeech as you send my dead ass off to Soylent, Inc.  Fuck you one and all on my OldPharts Big Adventure...I hope I'm tasteful and chewy and stick in your teeth so you look like total Nerds to those GYCF (Girls You Can't Fuck)...(damned near my whole life, but a house, job, money, and stability makes me a late-middle aged rock star to females of all ages (if only wife would agree)...I'm dripping in puss that I'm just too old to even think about let alone entertain between the need for blood pressure meds, cholesteral meds and  cialis/viagra.

Last time this called 'Salute' was when both of us wore hefty hose a la Joe Namith somewhere in 1978.  Everything I had on fell off for lack of size and we had a second son.  (Young People....You REALLY don't want to go digging for missing armor!  By then, it's too late.  And you can't get that stuff from under your nails for like ten years or so...accept your fate, your 'ring' wll be lost until Gollem finds it.)

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 20:56 | 5855972 EggSlayer
EggSlayer's picture

M Cuban thinks he's all the hog's shit and ass. aint that the balognie

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:23 | 5856074 sonoftx
sonoftx's picture

How many people fight "fight the man" and win? He had the balls to fight .gov and won!!! A man who fights a corrupt system and wins is always a plus in my book. And he must be pretty smart, at least common sense wise, (not "synchophant" ass kissing wise) in my book.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:32 | 5858469 juantrades
juantrades's picture

Seems like everyone here really dislikes this guy.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 21:45 | 5859704 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Nah.  Some of us are fairly indifferent.  I'd tell you who but I really don't care.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 20:58 | 5855981 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

 

 

At least he's being consistant.  This is the same line he preached when a crowdfunded developer appeared on Shark Tank.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x90LkDRdtjM

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 20:58 | 5855983 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Guess he is lucky he wouldn't find a sucker for Broadcast.com in 2015

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:01 | 5855989 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"According to some data I found, there are 225k Angels in the US. Like the crazy days of the internet boom,  I wonder how many realize what they have gotten into ?"

When it  happens the exit door will be packed. The people with the connections will get the word first.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:23 | 5856018 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

The reason why every jackass with a half-baked business can go public and raise a shit-ton of money, or privately (equity) fund their start-ups is because money is literally scrabbling for yield right now.

I truly believe that just sitting on wealth and preserving it is the way to go for the moment. In some ways not being a billionaire is kind of liberating.. because where the hell do you put your money as a billionaire?  Most of the options are financial assets..

That's why Buffett is acquiring hard assets in companies.  He sees this shit coming a mile away too.  He's just intelligent/business-minded enough to find business models which are predominantly real assets, which are necessary to society, and where he can preserve his wealth and hedge against this pretty insane looking financial collapse scenario which appears to be just a few years (no more than half a decade, I would say) around the corner.

I don't think we have reached that "live in a cave" moment.  Most people probably severely underestimate the size, scope and depth of the resources that the global powers have to throw at something like a financial (or dollar) collapse.. But this intrinsically unstable financial system, a system which was built to sustain the top of the pyramid without factoring in the end consequences, is going to hit the wall some day.  Maybe even in our lifetimes. 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:25 | 5856080 NoPension
NoPension's picture

Thank god, I'm liberated!

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:56 | 5856196 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

To turn to Palahniuk (in the most Escrava Isaura-esque manner)...

"It's only after we've lost everything that we're free to do anything."

I can imagine that trying to maintain a massive lump of cash and assets in this environment must be an absolute nightmare, and if it isn't currently, it sure as hell will be soon.  Anyone (wealthy) who isn't transitioning to real (hard) assets right now is going to be in for a world of hurt.  By that I mean assets within the real economy. Not leveraged web businesses, advertising, financial services etc.  Stuff that generates real activity in the real economy.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:43 | 5856529 ucde
ucde's picture

What you're talking about de facto is capital flight out of financial assets into "the real economy". 

I'm not against the truth of what you've said, but I will add this observation:

Capital flight of the 1% into "the real economy" just means that they will own that much more of everything. Railroads, Real Estate, Chicago parking spaces, private ports and waterways, every business that they don't already own. 

So if they ever 'wise up' and follow your advice, they will end up owning literally everything. Perhaps thats the end game, anyway. 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 00:12 | 5856569 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

I'm not sure, I suspect that will be the outcome which a lot of oligarchs are hoping for.  I'll be chuckling as morons try to panic sell in an illiquid market in the meantime though.

There are also barriers to the sort of overwhelming control on assets that you mention.. history seems to support the thesis that when too many assets accumulate in too few hands, there is often civil unrest and struggle as populist opinion turns.

I don't necessarily advocate that outcome, I'm a capitalist ultimately, and I truly do believe in a system of strong property rights*. People tend to act this way though, when things really get insane.

*Though property rights are being increasingly selectively enforced to prop up failing institutions, which is really terrible. 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 02:47 | 5856773 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

I don't necessarily advocate that outcome, I'm a capitalist ultimately, and I truly do believe in a system of strong property rights*. People tend to act this way though, when things really get insane.*Though property rights are being increasingly selectively enforced to prop up failing institutions, which is really terrible. 

Then in lies the rub.

 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 08:27 | 5856994 FrankiesBaggage
FrankiesBaggage's picture

You know what, I really like your take in ZH comments (much more sober than most commenters, none of the casual racism or misogny).  You really think that sitting on, say, $90k right now just in the bank, at a puny savings yield, is better than putting that $$ ANYWHERE else?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 04:30 | 5856862 Zero guest
Zero guest's picture

Actualy the order of the cycle is from financial assets to cash and then to real assets.

 

But that is just Kondrtieff folk lore right?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 06:41 | 5856929 Sir SpeaksALot
Sir SpeaksALot's picture

"because where the hell do you put your money as a billionaire?"

in physical gold, and or - bitcoin I d say.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 09:17 | 5857084 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

The markets aren't deep enough.. It takes a LOT of time and a LOT of (very sneaky maneuvering) for a billionaire to transition even 20% of their assets from stocks, or bonds into gold, silver, or bitcoin.

If we were billionaires and we tried to snap up the assets in a day, you are talking about seeing a huge spike in the price overnight.  Thus you have to factor in time and try to (slowly) accumulate an increased position at market rates as people sell. Market liquidity can be a serious issue for people who have big positions.

Again, harping back to this front-page WSJ piece on Bitcoin.. if you are sat with $15 million in Bitcoin along with 20 other guys and you want to (rapidly) liquidate that position, you are talking about five big market participants bidding one another down on the selling price due to the lack of buyers.  That's why (I believe) the WSJ was engaged by someone with deep pockets, to look for muppets to buy. 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:05 | 5857647 laomei
laomei's picture

"I don't think we have reached that "live in a cave" moment"

 

oh, you best prepare for it though, cus by the time we have reached it, all the caves will be spoken for.

 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 22:22 | 5856311 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

I believe Cuban's point is that, in private equity as opposed to publicly-traded firms, there is no functioning exit door.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 21:46 | 5859708 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

You have the correlation wrong.  The people with connections will get the word and so thereby it will happen.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:10 | 5856013 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

It affects every market, not just NASDAQ.

It affects the USD$ itself.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 21:49 | 5859714 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

There is no market, just the USD and rates.  I guess you did have a couple good seasons with the Twins.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:19 | 5856047 nakki
nakki's picture

I think he's actually pretty smart and for years called the stock market a ponzi scheme. I wish he would have mentioned the fact that knowing the valuations of all companies is pretty tough when you have 6 + years of ZIRP, and no mark to market, extend and pretend, ect.. If own my house and say according to me its going to be worth $700,000 in 12 years, will you believe me? Can I borrow against it? Hey my portfolio has some sovereign debt, but don't worry it WILL be good. My GM bonds are solid, no not those old ones, the current ones. It is different this time, whatever price discovery that was some what apparent in the past (think MBS), is now, a complete illusion.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:23 | 5856064 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

Cuban told the truth, any hostility means you are a BTFD Yellen groupie.  Truth ? You can't handle the truth.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 02:19 | 5856750 J Mahoney
J Mahoney's picture

We live in a world that has Wallstreet, and those Wallstreet types need to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lt. Fricassee? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for JFK, and you curse the Fed. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know. That JFK's death, while tragic, probably saved lives. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on Wallstreet, you need me on that Fed Board. We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the bubble of the very liquid market that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way, Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon, and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to you 1% hater

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:22 | 5856066 devo
devo's picture

Whew. I own none of those.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:30 | 5856100 ben_bernanke
ben_bernanke's picture

This argument is ridiculous. So if some private angel investor loses his shirt over an app that means stocks are overvalued? If anything it proves that this time it is totally different.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 21:58 | 5859741 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

It means that the manipulation of monetary policy to anything from QE to NIRP has had a very negative affect on private savers who were simply saving to retire, not own the world.  Grandma and Grandma earn .25% or worse at the bank but they need every future dollar they can get with real infation bringing the stuff they need to buy (think food/medicine) to all time high prices.  As such they are compelled to play at the casino of real risk at a time in their lives when this is exactly what they should not be doing.  Then you have young people using any leverage they can get to go for the gold as well.  Saving is losing.  The only way to win now is to gamble.  Most will lose and lose badly.  This is state managed economy.  The iron bank will survive even if it means everyone else has to die.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:40 | 5856150 StopBeingParanoid
StopBeingParanoid's picture

Cuban is trying to talk down valuations... Understandable, since that's his business; his words, not mine: "buy cheap in the South West, sell it to Silicon Valley". Now that capital is chasing returns wherever they may hide, his deals are becoming more and more expensive...

We're all ware startups have no liquidity, no suprise here Mark... But these trillions of dollars of saving must go somewhere, so better splash it on new ideas, even if one out of 100 makes it, than giving it to some big corporation who may as well be frickin' overvalued these days (hot dog trucks anyone?).

Lets remeber the sole purpose of finance: to allocate resources in a system more efficiently, from who has an excess (investors) to who has a need (companies and individuals). 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:40 | 5856152 StopBeingParanoid
StopBeingParanoid's picture

In an era where scientific discoveires, although accelerating, are taking more and more time, and capital is more and more abundant (more wealth and longer lifespans), it's just a natural evolution that capital becomes patient and yields go through the floor. I know things may be nicer and fairer and there seems to be a bubble, but I'm afraid this bubble won't go away any time soon, unless there's a global capital destruction, aka war.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:58 | 5856219 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

"...scientific discoveires, although accelerating, are taking more and more time..."

So the more something accelarates, the slower it goes? Wow! The wonders of science never cease. Thank you for clearing that up for us.

By golly, I'm so glad for the new stuff I learn every day on Zero Hedge, I'm fit to bust.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 07:34 | 5856956 StopBeingParanoid
StopBeingParanoid's picture

Apologies if that sounded unclear. I meant that the growth in the numebr of scientific discoveries is accelerating, and the time it takes to get to an *average* discovery is decreasing. However, we're looking for more and more difficult discoveries that require the combination of an increasing numebr of things (think fusion or genomics or particle physics, just to name a few), so we need patient capital.

I'll give you another example: asteroid mining. The benefits are expressed in trillions/quadrillions, but if everything goes right it would take at least a few decades. Of course it's only present-day billionaires who fund them, but you get the point... Even for less ambitious goals, we need patient capital, we're not gonna get to the future only with 0-to-1bn-in-18months social apps... 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:57 | 5856218 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I thought the sole purpose of finance was to liberate cash from one person's pocket into another.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 00:05 | 5856559 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Note that Cuban is one of the sharks in the reality show Shark Tank. He's diversifying a tiny fraction of his wealth into a myriad of Startups that pass the mustard on the show.

He and his fellow Sharks are VCs with skin in the game: They put up Cash for part of the company -- but, and this is the differentiator -- they end up taking the prospect's biz to the next level, where both make millions.

Even for the TV-haters, this one is worth watching, for all the would-be entrepreneurs.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:49 | 5856185 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It goes on Cuban until the pigmen start a world war.

Their goal is reduce the population by billions.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 21:55 | 5856212 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The next ice age has already begun. All the other planets in your solar system are experiencing much worse climate change than the earth is right now. The financial crooks must be stopped otherwise we'll all be doomed twice.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 00:29 | 5856611 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

And how are the planets in your solar system doing? Any extra room?

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 22:09 | 5856253 wwxx
wwxx's picture

"If stock in a company is worth what somebody will pay for it, what is the stock of a company worth when there is no place to sell it ?" 

I suppose the main source of profit or loss for a private owner is based on actual production sales.  Of course if main street isn't buying, or the production value is faulty then said angel shall fall from grace, or at least that is the way it was in the old days. 

 

The new normal provides easy credit that sustains even the marginal corporate angels to boldly bring their recurrent message 'I have a credit rating and therefore I do not suck'.

 

wwxx

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 22:48 | 5856390 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

Equity Crowd Funding allows you to join the masses to chase investments with as little as 5k dollars....

As "little" as 5 thousand dollars? And THAT gets me to "the masses"?

Fuck you Mark. No, seriously, fuck you. Where do you live that your "masses" have 5k of funds just lying about, looking for investments to chase?

I shouldn't be so harsh...he's just doing his job, I guess. But maybe the folks who need some good investment advice are the ones who CAN'T scrape together 5 grand for an investment opportunity. Most of the folks I know would have a hard time coming up with 1,000 that didn't have to be used for something else...Be nice if they could 'liquidate some of their holdings' instead of running to the Payday Loan place...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 10:00 | 5857216 headhunt
headhunt's picture

When you are a billionaire, $5k is $5.00, they lose perspective

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:44 | 5857796 ManOfBliss
ManOfBliss's picture

Sorry, if you cannot scrape together 5k then you do not belong in investing.

Perfectly reasonable position.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:12 | 5857907 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

I agree! However the reality is that EVERYONE has to invest in this economy, because they've cut off all the traditional savings places that we lower-income folks have always used...the savings account, the little CD that you 'roll over'...Everyone pontificates about how we all need to start planning for our own retirements, and stop depending on 'entitlement programs', etc...well fine...HOW? Even if we say fuck it, and stash our cash under the mattress, we LOSE money by default.

I'm sick of the mixed messaging that cuts off all avenues but one, then blames us for using the wrong door.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:05 | 5856442 jameswvu99
jameswvu99's picture

Like they say things come in threes.

1st bubble Tech

2nd bubble Real Estate

3rd bubble Debt

I have no doubt that this will be the greatest most outrageous bubble of the three.  I could see something crazy happen like the SP 500 going up 1000 pts in 6 months. 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:11 | 5856463 RhoneGSM
RhoneGSM's picture

The last bubble will be pm' s.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:20 | 5856481 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

 

Duh.

Of course, this is worse than the tech bubble.  The tech bubble was primarily a bubble of tech stocks.

This is the Whole Enchilada bubble. 

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:23 | 5856488 Sizzurp
Sizzurp's picture

The thing about bubbles is they can go a lot farther than most think they can.  If you are holding euro or yen, which is the greater risk, sticking it out in those devaluing assets, or parking your' capital in inflated US equities?  There is a lot of money floating around in the world.  It's looking for a home. As bad as our troubles seem to be, others have worse problems.

Wed, 03/04/2015 - 23:33 | 5856506 franciscopendergrass
franciscopendergrass's picture

If they had the Shark Tank during the Tech Boom, every idea pitched would get funded.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 00:16 | 5856535 duck dodgers
duck dodgers's picture

IMHO the entire answer to that question is that regular people dont have the money to own stocks...especially at this level. Times are tight for us working class. I have a good secure job and Im single at the moment with no kids so I have a little extra that I trade options with so I can use the profits to buy gold.

 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 05:33 | 5856897 Zero guest
Zero guest's picture

If you are working class then examine diverting a little of that extra to producing some passive income.

Put $50 aside each month until you have $1000.

Buy yourself an income producing asset for example an apartment complex RIET. There are several that will pay you monthly.

And viola! you get $6 or $8 bucks of passive income from this investment.

Now you are saving $56 a month. Each time you do this it will take less time to raise the cash than the time before.

Invest in a different income vehicle each time prefferably ones that pay monthly.

You do this as a hedge against the world not falling apart.

As long as it does not fall apart you are in the working class and in need of pasive income.

Make your goal to have passive income equal to one days pay each month.

From that point you can let the portfolio do the saving for you.

Baby steps. Hedge against the Status Quo. And experience the benefit of extra cash flow in your life.

 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 00:02 | 5856554 Super Hans
Super Hans's picture

I forget how this guy made his money. He may have been at the right place and time.  I have heard him on radio interviews, and he sounds fairly inteligent. 

My question is how does one raise capital for a company that has an idea for a tangible product or design that will help it's customers create a higher ROI than their competition?  I looked at crowdfunding, but I was turned off by all of the lame online marketing like videos etc.  I can't afford to pay people to create this for me.  Traditional loans are out due to poor credit caused by the failure of my last company.  

Also, I'm not eager to tell eveyone my design as I don't want it stolen.

 

SH

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 11:26 | 5857509 STP
STP's picture

I'm in the same boat.  I have numerous designs (or inventions) that I've come up with, so I've had to pick one that was the most likely to fly.  What I did, though, was to get a Provisional Patent on my design/invention, so that I could go out and market this product.   Then I got in with a CEO of a large marketing company, but that fell through.  Now I'm putting together a team to take it to the next step.  The Provisional Patent cost me $1,500, but it protects me and my idea from infringement.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 00:58 | 5856655 logical-different
logical-different's picture

Everyone say at the same time.  If a bank fails during this incredible third downturn in 15 years we will make sure we put our foot on the bankers throat and keep his head under water like it should have been done in 2008.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 01:41 | 5856703 Spectre
Spectre's picture

All of this is BS, we live with a Corrupt Managed Wall Street Casino.  Cuban was lucky with the Broadcast.com deal, however luck= timing and being prepared.  So my hats off to him.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 09:54 | 5857190 headhunt
headhunt's picture

Today's hard work is tomorrows luck

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 02:00 | 5856728 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

Nobody would give a shit what Mark Cuban thinks if he hadn't taken some bloated zero of a company and dumped it on somebody else for a couple of billion dollars right at the height of the 1999 bubble. For Cuban, no bubble is ever going to be as good as that bubble was.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 02:22 | 5856752 idontcare
idontcare's picture

You mean that CNBC is wrong and this time isn't different!  Oh, Pashaw. ;-)

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 02:48 | 5856774 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

As a billionaire you'd think he could write and spell a little better, or at least hire a writer/editor, before he embarrasses himself as he did here.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 02:59 | 5856784 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Fun to watch the USD climb as markets climb.

 

Go job yellen you fucktard!!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:58 | 5858564 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

I'll say! I can remember the B'tards claiming a falling $ was good for US equities---and it was. Same story now. Both won't be right in the end (although Prechter says stocks, bonds, and $ will fall simultaneously). Looks like more malinvestment which certainly won't end well...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 03:07 | 5856794 shouldvekilledthem
shouldvekilledthem's picture

Bubbles are bad only for those who enter at the top.

 

 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 06:31 | 5856922 Rakksan
Rakksan's picture

Cuban's point is you can't get out if there is no liquidity.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 06:23 | 5856912 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Mark Cuban warns...

"What America needs is a good 5c cigar..."

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 07:27 | 5856951 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Flipkart? SpaceX? Moderna? Ihad no idea. And people think Bakken oil E&Ps are a bubble - at least there are assets.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 10:01 | 5857219 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

just another maggot

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 10:04 | 5857237 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

Is everyone forgetting this time its different?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 10:12 | 5857266 Z_End
Z_End's picture

Sorry... How/When did Mark Chabenisky make his money?  

In 1999, during the dot com boom, Broadcast.com was acquired by Yahoo! for $5.7 billion in Yahoo! stock...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 11:55 | 5857618 Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho's picture

You made a statement, now make it relevant.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 10:12 | 5857267 mattgallis
mattgallis's picture

Someone gave spotify 500m?

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahaha

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 11:52 | 5857587 withglee
withglee's picture

If stock in a company is worth what somebody will pay for it, what is the stock of a company worth when there is no place to sell it ?

This just happens to be every company that has not gone public .... which is "virtually" all of them ... their number swamps the number of public companies ... even including the non-listed ones. What's the big deal? Grandma should still be  buying utilities. Do we need laws or do we need to educate ourselves?  Being a  fool is still legal ... and always should be if you value freedom ... even freedom to fail.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:24 | 5857699 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

does anyone remember VC, Venture Capital? it was the cover for a lot of political corruption in the 90's; Jack Abramoff, Tom Delay, et al. of course they were running a war off balance sheet, but no one has disproved the notion that the market crashed in 2007/8 because a trillion dollars disappeared from the economy. the job of the fed chief is not rocket science, he saw the money was missing, and he printed more, but he had to sterlize it, because that stolen money is still out there someplace (mostly offshore caribbean banks, and in the wall safe of drug cartels). the only practical solution is to orphan old currency, and then scrutinize repatrioted dollars, (hard work, like micromanaging the resereves in every charter bank) or alternately just inflate the whole balloon to the point where a trillion isn't very much. this is the key to hyperinflation, when the Fed reflated trillion, and the missing trillion all enter the economy at once. call it the big bang theory. and while consumer confidence continues to buzz along, money velocity is dangerously low, the real money is being taken out of the economy, much it is pure theft. you see this problem in terms of 1% 99%, but the 1% also represents political parties, pacs, and so forth. remember Iran Contra, that was a secret war funded with money stolen from the S & L's. how do you think they're paying for the proxy war in Ukraine? the Fed isnt that magic, they see the money in the safe doesnt match the days receipts, so they print more.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:39 | 5858500 juantrades
juantrades's picture

A Veritable Gaggle of Doomsayers: http://prestonclive.whotrades.com/blog/43990862898

Fri, 03/06/2015 - 22:53 | 5863748 monad
monad's picture

Mr. Cuban is taking this out of context. The reference context he proposes is, "fiat is money".

um...

Sat, 03/07/2015 - 00:15 | 5863915 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

As I said the other day, the tech bubble of 2000 was just a bubble for NASDAQ.  And when it burst it took the other markets down with it.

The present NASDAQ bubble is inflating along side the DJIA and SP500 bubbles and when they burst  --  and burst they will  --  they'll be looking for other things to take down with them.

So as I said the other day, we're looking at the Whole Enchilada Bubble.

"Here's looking at you, kid" 

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