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One Last Look At The Real Economy Before It Implodes - Part 1
Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,
We are only two months into 2015, and it has already proven to be the most volatile year for the economic environment since 2008-2009. We have seen oil markets collapsing by about 50 percent in the span of a few months (just as the Federal Reserve announced the end of QE3, indicating fiat money was used to hide falling demand), the Baltic Dry Index losing 30 percent since the beginning of the year, the Swiss currency surprise, the Greeks threatening EU exit (and now Greek citizens threatening violent protests with the new four-month can-kicking deal), and the effects of the nine-month-long West Coast port strike not yet quantified. This is not just a fleeting expression of a negative first quarter; it is a sign of things to come.
Stock markets are, of course, once again at all-time highs after a shaky start, despite nearly every single fundamental indicator flashing red. But as Zero Hedge recently pointed out in its article on artificial juicing of equities by corporations using massive stock buybacks, this is not going to last much longer, simply because the debt companies are generating is outpacing their ability to prop up the markets.
This conundrum is also visible in central bank stimulus measures. As I have related in past articles, the ability of central banks to goose the global financial system is faltering, as bailouts and low-interest-rate capital infusions now have little to no effect on overall economic performance. The fiat fuel is no longer enough; and when this becomes apparent in the mainstream, all hell will indeed break loose.
The argument that banks can prop up the system forever is now being debunked. In this series of articles, I will cover the core reasons why this is happening, starting with the basis of all economics: supply and demand.
The Baltic Dry Index has been a steadfast indicator of the REAL economy for many years. While most other indexes and measures of fiscal health are subject to direct or indirect manipulation, the BDI has no money flowing through it and, thus, offers a more honest reflection of the world around us. In the past two months, the index measuring shipping rates and international demand for raw goods has hit all-time historical lows, plummeting 57 percent over the course of the past 12 months and 30 percent for the year to date.
The dwindling lack of demand for shipping presents obvious challenges to mainstream talking heads who contend that the overall economic picture indicates recovery. That’s because if demand for raw goods has fallen so far as to produce a 57 percent rate drop over the past year, then surely demand for the consumer goods that those raw goods are used to produce must be collapsing as well. The establishment machine has used the same broken-record argument against this conclusion, despite being proven wrong over and over again: the lie that fleet size is the cause of falling shipping rates, rather than a lack of demand for ships. This is the same argument used by pundits to distract from the problems inherent in the severe drop in oil prices: that oversupply is the issue, and that demand is as good as it ever was. Forbes has even attempted to outright dismiss the 29-year low of the BDI and alternative economic analysts in the same lazily written article.
First, let’s address the issue of global demand for goods. Does the BDI represent this accurately? Well, as most of you know, the real picture on manufacturing and export numbers is nearly impossible to come by considering most, if not all indexes fail to account for monetary devaluation and inflation in costs of production. For instance, mainstream propagandists love to argue that manufacturing (like retail) generally posts at least small to modest gains every year. What they fail to mention or take into account is the added costs to the bottom line of said manufacturers and retailers, as well as the added costs to the end consumer. Such costs are often not addressed in the slightest when final numbers are tallied for the public.
In manufacturing, some numbers are outright falsified, as in the case of China, where officials are forcing plant managers to lie about output.
In my view, any decline made visible in the false numbers of the mainstream should be multiplied by a wide margin in order to approximate what is going on in the real economy. China, the largest exporter and importer in the world, continues to suffer declines in manufacturing “expansion” as it’s PMI suggests orders remain steadily stagnant.
“Official” statistics show a 3.3 percent decline in Chinese exports in January from a year earlier, while imports slumped 19.9 percent. Exports slid 12 percent on a monthly basis while imports fell 21 percent according to the Customs Administration.
In Japan, despite the falling Yen which was expected to boost overseas demand, export growth declined for last year, certainly in terms of export volume. The recent “jump” in January does nothing to offset the steady erosion of Japanese exports over the past five years and the flat demand over the past two years.
Japan’s manufacturing expansion has slowed to the slowest pace in seven months.
In Germany, the EU’s strongest economic center, industrial output has declined to the lowest levels since 2009, and factory orders have also plunged to levels not seen since 2009.
Despite the assumptions in the mainstream media that lower oil prices would result in high retails sales, this fantasy refuses to materialize. Retail sales continue the dismal trend set during the Christmas season of 2014,with the largest decline in 11 months in December, and continued declines in January.
Oil is certainly the most in-our-face undeniable indicator of imploding demand. Volatility has skyrocketed while pump prices have dropped by half in many places. One may be tempted to only see the immediate benefits of this deflation. But they would be overlooking the bigger picture of global demand. Oil is the primary driver of economic productivity. Dwindling demand for oil means dwindling productivity which means dwindling consumption which means a dwindling economy. Period.
OPEC reports announce downgraded global demand for oil above and beyond expectations. Oil demand has fallen to levels not seen since 2002.
Beyond the issue of real global demand for raw goods, the argument that the BDI is being gutted only due to an oversupply of cargo vessels also does not take into account the fact that Shipping companies often SCRAP extra ships when demand falters. I find it rather amusing that mainstream economists seem to think that dry bulk companies would continue a trend of fielding cargo ships they don't use causing an artificial drop in freight rates. As far as I know, such companies are not in the habit of undermining their own profits if they can help it. When an oversupply of ships occurs, companies remove unused vessels either through scrap or dry dock in an attempt to drive freight rates back up to profitable levels. This often works, unless, it is DEMAND for cargo shipping that is the issue, not the supply of ships.
Ship scrapping boomed in 2013 and has not stopped since. In fact, dry bulk mover COSCO dismantled at least 17 ships in the month of January alone and has been dismantling ships consistently since at least 2013. The trend of scrapping is often glossed over by shippers as a "modernization effort", but the fact remains that cargo companies are always removing ships from supply in order to maximize rates and profits.
Finally, global shipping giant Maersk Line now openly admits that the primary detriment to shipping rates, the reason the BDI is falling to historic lows, is because of falling demand in nearly every market; ship supply is secondary.
Does falling demand result in a lack of fleet use and thus "oversupply"? Of course. However, this chicken/egg game that establishment economists play with the BDI needs to stop. Falling demand for goods came first, the number of unused ships came second. This is the reality.
A rather cynical person might point out that all of the stats above come from the propaganda engine that is the mainstream, so why should they count? I would suggest these people consider the fact that the propaganda engine is constantly contradicting itself, and in-between the lines, we can find a certain amount of truth.
If manufacturing is in “expansion”, even minor expansion, then why are exports around the world in decline? If the Baltic Dry Index is dropping off the map because of a “supply glut of ships”, then why are other demand indicators across the board also falling, and why are major shipping agencies talking about lack of demand? You see, this is what alternative analysts mean by the “real economy”; we are talking about the disconnect within the mainstream’s own data, and we are attempting to discern what parts actually present a logical picture. The media would prefer that you look at the economy through a keyhole rather than through a pair of binoculars.
Beyond this lay the true beneficiaries of public oblivion; international corporate moguls, banking financiers, and political despots. Corporations and governments only do two things relatively well — lying and stealing. One always enables the other.
The establishment has done everything in its power to hide the most foundational of economic realities, namely the reality of dying demand. Why? Because the longer they can hide true demand, the more time they have to steal what little independent wealth remains within the system while positioning the populace for the next great con (the con of total globalization and centralization). I will cover the many advantages of an economic collapse for elites at the end of this series.
For now I will only say that the program of manipulation we have seen since 2008 is clearly changing. The fact of catastrophic demand loss is becoming apparent. Such a loss only ever precedes a wider fiscal event. The BDI does not implode without a larger malfunction under the surface of the financial system. Oil and exports and manufacturing do not crumble without the weight of a greater disaster bearing down. These things do not take place in a vacuum. They are the irradiated flash preceding the deadly fallout of a financial atom bomb.
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Sure Brandon, any day now.
Indeed.
Brandon, for your assertion to be correct, the graph* in the ZH post below would have to fall off the cliff for the USD.
In spite of all my concerns, etc, that's a sucker's bet I'm not taking.
* http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2...
The landmass version of BDI should have something to do with rail cars.
Any body got stats on how many are parked in sidings unused and what the trend is?
There used to be stats on freight car loadings and the Dow Transportation index. They were key indicators when Jesse Livermore swung a big line.
"the ability of central banks to goose the global financial system is faltering" - Really? have you not seen the DAX and CAC performance since Draghi unveiled QE?
https://www.aar.org/newsandevents/Press-Releases/Pages/2015-03-04-railtr...
https://www.aar.org/newsandevents/Freight-Rail-Traffic/Documents/2015-03...
good links.
thank you.
Welcome back Kirk2NCC1701...
I disagree with you on this issue but I have missed reading your posts.
Yeah, all the banksters including Greenspan and Rothschild are admitting that the S is about to HTF, trying to set themselves up as the ones who "predicted" the crash, but certainly all is well. Continue marching blindly into the slaughterhouse citizens while watching the Nasdaq hitting record highs, there is nothing to worry about...
I'm still waiting for my $3 million dollar tax free check from the FED.
I mean, if they can buy $40 Billion/month of Mortgage Backed Securities to benefit banks, surely they have enough "ink" in the Ctrl+P binary printer to throw me a bone.
I know, I know - they're doing it to make life harder on us plebeians and force us to work more for the sake of the elites and the kleptoligarchy.
So...things such as the BDI & income, sales, inflation, and debt don't matter; YET.
Hell of a highly combustible Hindenburg blimp they are inflating, eh?
Quit teasing us with talk of implosion, everyone knows the U.S. economy was wrecked on 9/11 when special forces under the command of a rogue Texas general planted RDX explosives in the World Trade Center stairwells, to ensure the buildings were wrecked after the TACAN controlled military passenger jets crashed into the towers. Why do you think those firefighters were told to shut up about the explosions they heard within the towers? Everything you read now about a recovering economy is propaganda, high paying middle class American jobs have vanished. Mexican meth dealers (controlled by the DEA) have taken over the American heartland and traitors kowtowing to the Saudis occupy Capitol Hill.
Link please, specifically on the "rogue Texas General"... If you can't or won't produce at least one, then you're talking out of your ass...
Thanks for a really well-written and well-researched article. High quality writing and thoughts here. Will definitely check out your blog.
Consumer Economy - Minus - Consumers = ?
Profit
Until
Until The Cause, pay close attention to the last bit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4izkPDASG7UHaha. Using Skippy as a source. Hilarious. That guy is a laughing stock even among conspiritards, trust me I KNOW.
Where's part 2?
Paraphrasing George Carlin: "The economy is not going anywhere. We are!"
These guys are writing part II
Armed Robbers Steal $4.8 Million in Gold During Daring HeistNo sweat, it was insured, nobody lost any money, it will be equally taken out in pennies on your next insurance payment, increased costs you see, it's no big deal really.
Wow, rebooted Ad Block Plus because I was stalled. Suddenly see all the ads everyone's bitching about and for good reason!
Holy Hell, Tylers!
Why have all this crap on such a great website. Run a fund-raising article once in a while with the promise to just have hot lady ads. At least those are minor eye candy. But the rest is media over-kill.
Rebooting explorer so ABP is back in effect.
I sometimes wonder what's going on in the most important room on the planet--the ZH Engine Room.
There was Marla leaving or whatever she did, and that sucked, because Radio Zero, and because Marla.
There was Project Mayhem, and whatever whatever something something, and that didn't really suck, but it was strange.
There was the nascent user community rating system, with like some kind of scoring based on up/down arrow ratios or something something, and that went away, which again didn't suck but huh?
And yeah the ads, seems like maybe the policy there got farmed out or something, or else the people in charge don't see the site as 'mortal' users do. Lots of room for improvement anyhow.
I dunno. I have a lot of years here and have even posted content, and am fiercely loyal, so I hope it works out, but sometimes it feels like there is burnout or turnover or some kind of absence of focus going on.
Be well Tylers. We need you.
I remember you. You were one of the commenters I'd read during my lurking years. Don't see you so often, now.
I guess we got it all figured out anyhow, right? I mean, how many signals does it take to emerge from the noise....
It takes one signal, repeated over and overl, timelessly and without fail, to emerge above the noise.
Hey, Survivorlist's are on!
Why not more porn ads? You might get more SEC viewership.
Yep. The commentary in the 'old days' was unique and insightful and had an underlying knowledge of 'inside information' of happenings. Today, there are some true nuggets, but mainly ZH has become only a step up from Drudge...
"I remember you. You were one of the commenters I'd read during my lurking years. Don't see you so often, now."
Shit happens.
They sold out years ago. Have you been in a coma?
Does Jameson count as a coma?
There have been some changes, yes, gradual but noticeable over the years.
True.
Everything changes over time.
Especially the capacity of human stupidity.
I agree. There is a drift here. It was formerly in-depth behind the scenes financial manipulation, but now it's LA Cops and Charlie Hedbo. That stuff is covered extemely well on the Centre for Research on Globalization web site. Keep the behind the scenes financial and get rid of the rest. Baltic Dry Goods is more like it.
good grief...
don't use explorer..
go with opera or firefox
I kept reading complaints about the ads. Just out of curiosity I disabled adblock and looked at ZH for the first time in its true form. Oh my god! It looked like a tabloid newspaper! Moving and flashing crap all over the place. 10 seconds later bam! A sound out of nowhere through the speakers I had on full volume and me scrambling to figure out what the hell's going on, as if being woken up in the middle of the night by a smoke alarm.
Holy Blenkfein! There's even a video!
I've been using adblock since it was invented, installing it on all friends' computers and enabling it by default on all corporate networks I service - packaging it with every MSI.
I remember the late 90's when people just discovered animated gif's and font colors, making every web page look like a bad acid trip. Apparently that sort of thing never went away.
Thank you, Adblock almightly, for shielding my virgin eyes from all this monstrocity!
If I had a choice whether to watch the ads oh quit ZH all together, I'd pick the latter with no hesitation. Sure, they have to pay the bills, bandwidth ain't free, original content, unbiased reporting, vibrant community.
To hell with it! Unfiltered ZH looks like eye cancer!
Adblocker, what a gimmick. Anyone who exposes themselves to enough ads knows that they develop a biological adblocker. I only see ads when I deactivate the biological filter.
Knowing this I feel sorry for online marketers. But then again a lot of AdSense traffic is fraudulent anyway.
However, I must admit that my bio blocker doesn't stop those ads that suddenly appear as an overlay of the entire site and force you to close them manually.
Biological adblocker? That's even worse. That sends ads directly into your subconscious. I remember one time I was browsing and had a sudden craving for icecream. Almost heard a commercial tune in my head: "What would you do for a Klondike bar?" And just as I was about to get up from my seat I noticed a text ad, so small at the corner of my screen, I couldn't even read it without squinting. Apparently my brain had no trouble capturing it.
Those thoughts that ads plant, making you believe they're your own are a marketer's dream.
Ad immunity? There's only one kind that I know of. It's called poverty - total and absolute.
Add on to all that, saw on CNBC this morn that social media doesn't increase sales, oops
I can't even recall the last time I had a browser without AdBlocker installed.
Ghostery too, fellas. Make sure you install that as well. Gotta block all that mind cancer and tracking software.
I'll have to disagree on that contention that poverty creates ad immunity. I saw a woman in Detroit complaining that she couldn't pay her water bill and yet she was wearing an official Astros shirt that probably cost $100.
Ad immunity is easy. It only requires discernment. "Do I really need that, as opposed to something more important or useful?
It's called thinking.
Use Ad Blocker. I have a clear ZH and no ads.
Thank you JimMN and Julia.
Up until recently, I did not have ad blocker installed and ZH had been overrun with ads to the point that I loathed coming in to even peep the headlines. Now that I have adblocker, the site loads smoothly and effortlessly as it should.
At some point in time, the Tyler clan will realize that more is not better, it turns what once was an insightful blog into no more than an Edward Bernays petridish of ads for hookers and blow, to paraphrase.
Fuck advertising.
yea yea baltic dry this, fundamentals that. its all garbage, that shit has been collapsing for years cause you dont need ships to ship iPhone apps or e-minis but you sure can get rich with em. we are in a new age where none of that old school crap matters. Just collect your free money and stop complaining.
Uh, yeah, but you do need ships to ship iPhones. No economy runs on "apps". You're being sarcastic, right?
What are you talking about? With interest waning, I have been able to snatch up big lots of Candy Crush and am able to feed my family and friends bountifully. Who needs Handysizes or Supramaxs when 4G can feed the world?
Exactly. Take hailo /uber the apps - you can't deny they improve efficiency. Less empty cabs looking for A fare. Apps can impact the economy.
Not being sarcastic
All of the Q99X2 could fit in one old cargo ship. How much are they?
let's have a look at that fucking balance sheet yellen
sure, I wouldn't want the world to see the fucking mess I made either - jail isn't so much fun
#FUCKYOUYELLEN
Deflation and collapse of demand go hand-in-hand.
This is the new global infectious disease. Thank you Central Bankers.
I agree that the 'Elite' (read 'Pond Scum') are addicted to sucking the marrow from all bones and the propaganda machine will continue to point away from deflation and the vacuum where demand used to be.
Then there's the influence of new technology - very deflationary. The price of all goods and services rapidly approaches zero which in turn drags quality down in general (explains the crap ads we are blocking).
I'm a luddite.
doesn't "last look" and "part I" make this title an oxymoron?
Not if it's a last look at different but related parts of the economy done in series, which is what the article seems to be telling us. If he did a part two that was on the BDI again, then yeah, it would be an oxymoron.
MSM is really pushing the latest "whizz" that it's all the fault of "Falling Productivity!"
Initially, (2007-2009) it was all the fault of borrower's over-indebtedness Then it was the (lack of) Growth i.e inflation across the board, (taxes, profits, wages). Now, because we can't seem to attain "escape velocity," (courtesy of QE crushing liquidity,) it's all the fault of lazy 'mericans, Europeans, Chinese etc and their lack of "Productivity!"
Problem is sheeple understand "lack of productivity," more than they understand what's really happening, so being sheeple are accepting and ready to blame themselves.
How best to explain to sheeple, lack of productivity is not the real problem?
The greatest element of what we call a 'financial bubble' is arguably 'inflated demand'. Unrealistic demand.
Draw yourself a chart where the horizontal is time and the vertical is money. And where the horizontal and vertical meet on the left is January 1998 and the GDP for 1997.
Now draw 2 lines from the bottom point on the left.
The first one is the actual GDP from January 1998 to the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Then draw a fictional chart of the economy if THE SUBPRIME BUBBLE HAD BEEN NIPPED IN THE BUD BY GREENSPAN.
There should be a large gap on the right verticle between the fictional GDP at the bottom and the actual GDP on top.
If inflated demand is a component of financial bubbles, we can see how much demand is absent for the recovery by the central banks in their attempt to return the economy to its false state somewhere between December 2007 and the crash low of march 2009.
The greater the bubble the greater the inflated demand and, all things being equal, the more time to return to normal growth.
"The Baltic Dry Index has been a steadfast indicator of the REALeconomy for many years."
Yep, it's true. Baltic Index worked as long, as number of ships was a function of real economy. But then China made political decision and build hundreds of ships more.
Baltic Index is bad indicator nowadays. Better to use volume or value of transported goods.
Baltic? Fuck that!
The Carribean is where it's at!
Your friend,
Dog
Uh when is this implosion suppose to take place? This year, next year, five years from now?
I'll make a prediction - NEVER. When you're the only game in town, you keep it going.
Bullish!
But seriously I hope this shit hurries up and crashes on that peice of shit Obama's watch because that stupiud communist son of a bitch owns it.
It would seem what we are witnessing is a super slow-motion global collapse.
Guaranteed Annual Income coming next bitchez.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoIJKTQ3U4A
Of course there's a lack of demand. Our masters refuse to pay their employees what they're worth. Extending the proles bank credit to keep them quiet and paper profits high worked for a while, but now the proles are up to their eyeballs.
Remember social credit, anyone? If the money needed for the proles to buy back their product had been printed up and given to the proles outright instead of to the banks (or taxes greatly lowered and the balance made up with debt-free money), the crisis would be long over and most people much better off.
Something for nothing? For some people it's actually a good idea---for example, couples who could more easily decide to have one of them stay home and raise the kids instead of wearing a name-tag all day and leaving the kids in a day care to catch every communicable disease going around---like TB, courtesy of the dirty Mexican kid.
I note as well that banksters only object to "something for nothing" when they're not the beneficiaries.
Im just wonderin how much money i would have lost, or rather, not made, if I listened to every Zerohedge prediction like this? someone help me out on this one!
British Style Colonialism in the USA: particular examples are New York City & Ferguson Policing Practices and Predatory Business and Government Practices. Of course if you recruit Blacks to be the Police Force in many cities and teach them to target other Blacks and Hispanics this is Colonialism. We just have to look at Prison Rates, Drug Law Enforcement, Non-Violent Offenders that go to Prison, compare US Prison Rates with the Rest of the World, look at Prison Rates for the British Empire and that under Monarchs.
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-- British Colonialism Explains our US -
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- Tom Ashbrook is "On Point" on NPR Radio Show with some Great Guests and Phone-Ins discussing DOJ Report on Ferguson and Statistical Proof that Mayor, Police Chief, City Council Don't take Responsibility for Correcting the problems. Damning Report appears to show British Colonialism.
- The city’s practices are shaped by revenue rather than by public safety needs.
- A singled missed, late or partial payment of a fine could mean jail time.
- And if time is served, no credit for jail time is received and the length of time isn’t even recorded by the court.
http://onpoint.wbur.org/2015/03/05/ferguson-police-racial-bias-doj-micha...
I wonder if William Banzai could make more about this.
- I considered who could Run for US "Zionist in Chief" and we have lots of contenders like John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Kelly Ayotte, John Boehner, and leaders of our MIC and Think Tanks.
But British Colonialism Explains our US Education System, Our Military Republic, the Silent Coup of our Government by MIC Paramilitaries, our Wars, our Protection of Germany & Israel, our Aggressive NATO, the Practices of Nebobs in Free (Slave) Trade, NIRP/ZIRL/LIRP, QE in place of Reforming US Finance and a good Jobs Environment, the Decline of the US Worker power to maintain and ascend to Middle Class, the Loss of Pensions and Retirement Funds, the Loss of Wealth in Home Equity, and the Trend of Elderly working at Fast Food Jobs and Walmart Jobs.
- Look what we do to our Young Men by giving them imprisonment or fining them through the courts and causing them to lose jobs, lose savings, prevent them from getting jobs, prevent them from getting apartments, forcing them to be dependent on handouts, favors, and welfare
- In an Expensive Capitalist Culture that Judges it's people on their ability to work, ability to get new jobs with higher compensation, we create "Social Tension", poor cooperation with .gov and Police, and Disenfranchise many while making them into a "poor" class of "Losers" and never do wells
- Five Class System in USA: Criminal Class, Non-Voting Illegal Class, Lower Class, Middle Class, Upper Class of Diplomats, .gov Officials, Super Wealthy, Royalty, and Bankers
- US Constitution Suspended at least by 1981 when we created a Super Funding System for Military and MIC Expansion which at some point clearly includes the Wall Street and European Banking System, but which could go back to 1910
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-- British Colonialism Explains our US -
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The financial economy has detached and gone on an orbit of its own. The brittle link btw the 2 arguably snapped by Umpires/Regulators becoming Players. Hence a Casino of Papers.
The CAN (Debt) is not budging and has to be kicked by Gadzillon now.
You fuck your credibility with this:
OPEC reports announce downgraded global demand for oil above and beyond expectations. Oil demand has fallen to levels not seen since 2002.
OPEC has dropped partly primarily because of the US ponzi scheme otherwise known as shale.
And then you further fuck yourself with this nonsense:
The establishment has done everything in its power to hide the most foundational of economic realities, namely the reality of dying demand. Why? Because the longer they can hide true demand, the more time they have to steal what little independent wealth remains within the system while positioning the populace for the next great con (the con of total globalization and centralization). I will cover the many advantages of an economic collapse for elites at the end of this series.
Do you really think they are doing this so they can make money?
Are you retarded?
They are doing it because we are FUCKED. This is the end of the world mate.
They are doing it because if the masses really knew what was going on they'd throw up their hands in despair and this house of cards would collapse into a steaming heap of shit.
Let me clue the bumpkins in who keep ranting 'they're corrupt - they are stupid --- they are crazy'
They are NONE of the ABOVE.
What they are is DESPERATE.
THE PERFECT STORM (see p. 59 onwards)
The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf