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Ridiculous-er And Ridiculous-er
Since the start of February, 48 US macro data items have missed expectations and 8 have beaten. Since then the S&P 500 has risen over 5.5% (and the Nasdaq even more) and 10Y yields are up 50bps. Bloomberg's US Macro Surprise index is now as weak as it was just after Lehman and is falling at the fastest pace since Summer 2012. While everyone is well aware that markets can stay irrational longer than a trader can stay liquid, one has to wonder just how long this farce can continue before even the most effusive talking head has to admit... things ain't great.
The divergence is growing...
as Macro weakness accelerates...
From the start of February...
MISS
- Personal Spending
- Construction Spending
- ISM New York
- Factory Orders
- Ward's Domestic Vehicle Sales
- ADP Employment
- Challenger Job Cuts
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Nonfarm Productivity
- Trade Balance
- Unemployment Rate
- Labor Market Conditions Index
- NFIB Small Business Optimism
- Wholesale Inventories
- Wholesale Sales
- IBD Economic Optimism
- Mortgage Apps
- Retail Sales
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
- Business Inventories
- UMich Consumer Sentiment
- Empire Manufacturing
- NAHB Homebuilder Confidence
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits
- PPI
- Industrial Production
- Capacity Utilization
- Manufacturing Production
- Dallas Fed
- Chicago Fed NAI
- Existing Home Sales
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed
- Personal Consumption
- ISM Milwaukee
- Chicago PMI
- Pending Home Sales
- Personal Income
- Personal Spending
- Construction Spending
- ISM Manufacturing
- Domestic Vehicle Sales
- ADP Employment
- Challenger Job Cuts
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Continuing Claims
- Factory Orders
BEAT
- Markit Services PMI
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- JOLTS
- Case-Shiller Home Price
- Q4 GDP Revision (but notably lower)
- Markit Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Services
- Unit Labor Costs
* * *
Only one thing for it...
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It is best to think of a miss as a near hit.
IDK how long it can last, but I am totally taking out a 7 year car loan and buy stocks instead. Cars are an asset and obviously wont lose value! Thanks CNBC for the epic advice!
even debt is an asset in the new normal
With NIRP, debt is a producing asset!
The market has gone up b/c, as far as the markets are concerned, what matters is not the macroeconomic data, but the central banks reactions to that data.
It's really pretty simple... Follow closely... and don't give me any chit, cut in 6 months your going to think it was YOUR idea...
Item - glass stiegl repeal changes the way banks operate, raise money, treat customers, etc. NOW EVERYONE IS A MUPPET!
Item - anti trust laws ignored to enable more M&A than ever before... CORPORATE EFFICIENCIES OF SCALE!
Item - Obama care mandate forever alters the delicate balance of power between Large Corporations and Small Business... Net result is, if you want full time job, it's likely going to be at big corporation. THUS GIVING BIG CORP MORE POWER, TAX BENEFITS, AND JOB VALUE, SETTING UP FOR THEM TO BE SUCKED UP AS A PART OF THE GOVERNMENT ONE DAY SOON...
Item - Instead of middle class taxing ability driving the engine of US prosperity, it's now driven by M&A plus stock buybacks at higher prices (vs. Bargain prices of year gone bye)... keeping stocks flying high from the buy high, sell higher crowd... BIG CORP BUYING BACK OWN STOCK AT ANY PRICE TO GIVE TO KEY EMPLOYEES AS STOCK OPTIONS. ALSO, non - qualified split dollar deferred compensation plans...
Item - BOTTOM LINE = BIG CORP NOW HAS EVERY ADVANTAGE TO KEEP M&A BUYING SPREE GOING ON UNTIL SOMEONE FIGURES OUT THAT IT'S ALSO WRECKING THE COUNTRY AND SETTING US UP FOR THE ULTIMATE GOVERNMENT BUYOUT... SINGLE PAYER EVERYTHING...
Shocker.
The FED has been giving the public two in the pink and one in the stink for years.
Or is that two in the stink?
Subtle difference but as long as the skimmers can take the summer off in the Hamptons I guess its okay.
pods
Bad never to be paid back debt, and it's Bullish !
Maybe stawk strength is because corporations own the show, whatever the current macro environment. They've been f*ck'n us for years and gettin' away with it, ergo, "bullish".
Wait for my new book I am writing "How to borrow your way to financial freedom." I am sure it will be a best seller on cnbs.
I picked a bad time to start sniffing krazy glue
indeed - come on Tylers, give us the nod, turn bullish! (I seriously feel like shorting everything but mostly AAPL...)
Leading:
All beat and slowed sequentially as well (+ all being above 50)
The ones that missed are all lagging. Who cares.
The ones that missed are all lagging. Who cares.
Everything is lagging when you are building hockey sticks.
the markets will hit new all time highs each day when the riots are in full-swing and the cities are all burning down - that's a lock
Bulb burns brightest before it fails. Then again, when the bulb is fueled by the Fed, it may burn in perpetuity.
It can stay irrational for a very long time. I think perhaps it will stay permanently irrational now.
All investors (hft's) know that the Fed will not allow a market crash, so there is no fear (and rightly so). When markets drop, CB's print. The only "drop" in markets could be in real value as fiat lose their value and go toward zero. Nominal markets may rise forever (in a very localized hyperinflationary way).
That is mho anyway
Stupidity can stay stupid much longer than you can stay intelligent.
Imagine that you can print "money" out of thin air. Imagine that you can use this "money" to evenutally buy every share of every stock in the good old USofA. Imagine that you call your self "The FED". Now... What happens when you own everything? Does the stock price even matter if you own and control everything? Aren't you now REALLY the OWNER of the good old USofA (and not just the politicians, like you were before you bought everything)?
So you're saying.....we have a chance???
When will we all accept that in a free money for bankers environment economic indicators will not mean anything in an up or down direction.
O.W.
That's one big giant gapping hole.
You do know the machines wipe their asses with that list of misses, yes ?
I wouldn't say I've been missing it, Bob.
Yep. Macro numbers will have to catch up now to the reality of the market.
The quote about irrational markets and trader solvency should be: "Markets can remain irrational longer than a trader can remain solvent betting against them."
"Markets can, with the aide of an unlimited printing-press, remain irrational-er longer-er..."
We have the Escape Velocity of a Fully Laden Swallow
An African or a European swallow?
Now is the time to buy.
Money printing or currency de-basement has NEVER, EVER worked in the long run in the history of the world!!
It's worked quite well for a small number of people, for a pretty long run in world history.
Stupid is as stupid does.
I'm with stupid.
The more terms such as "RIDICULOUS-ER" [not to mention its exponetitial mathematical equation thereof]...
The more a TRUTH seeker [such as f_s ~ from days gone by], is ushered back in to the realm of discussion based on the 'SPIRIT' of the aforementioned protestations...
Alas ~ it would be the the common crop 'A-JU-DICATION' of the recent crop of 'Tylers' [emphasis upon 2nd syllable], to decide whether or not any of that were noteworthy [Notwithstanding the protestations of sychophants]...
Now don't out yourself too quickly this time frank, I was just beginning to enjoy your comments.
The Next Silicon Valley
If your neighbor prints a $20 bill and offers it to you for your labor, under what conditions do you accept?
If your neighbor offers the $20 to another neighbor for one hour of his work and tells him that he can redeem it for 2 hours of your work, under what conditions do you accept?
If a majority government votes to print money against your labor, under what conditions do you accept?
Who is really the bank?
Let the critters print all they like, and discount to the gravity needed.
Now, a few black guys printing billions to play a child’s game, rigged at that, are teaming up with political females playing a rigged game, for an equal right to print; the nation/state gets dumber every day, and America is no exception. The majority is always in a prison, of its own creation.
Money, debt, is a poor substitute for natural wealth, which is why the majority always votes to take your children, in a police state, normalized with public education. Train your children accordingly, to give the empire an identity to track (residence, job, blah, blah, blah), with no more than 10% of their time.
The Fed is fubared, which is what I told the Greenspan crew, when it contacted me for employment, the same thing I told those morons from Navy HR in Virginia, offering non-recurring prizes in a rigged lottery to accept best business practice, equal rights and affirmative action for feudalism, with Silicon Valley IPOs. Hillary is welcome to it.
Same Question: Just who the F do you think you are?
Same Answer: Labor, which doesn’t compete for capital, or negotiate, because it chooses whether or not the bills get paid, and builds economies accordingly.
Yellen isn’t lying about not being able to recognize a bubble before it pops, because the Fed has no idea what labor is going to do next.
Set yourself up structurally as if you already have children, to be successful, regardless of what the nay-saying fools do. No job in the empire is worthwhile without a family to show for it, and there are only a handful of jobs remaining returning wages 4X rent, keeping pace with rent inflation, and the path to them is not equal rights granted by government. Marry first, because you will not have the patience to deal with empire stupidity otherwise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV-rhtet4Ow :D
Analysts are still forecasting a bottom up 11% increase in earnings from 2015 to 2016. As long as this is the case stocks will stay up.
Yet another "correlation" article in ZH. Apart from the apparent love for Putin and his regime on these pages the "Correlation Game" seems to be a favourite.
Try this one on for a change: http://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/avoiding-a-common-mista...