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Chart Of The Day: Recession Dead Ahead?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The chart below showing the annual increase, or rather, decrease in US factory orders which have now declined for 6 months in a row (so one can't blame either the west coast port strike or the weather) pretty much speaks for itself, and also which way the US "recovery" (whose GDP is about to crash to the 1.2% where the Atlanta Fed is modeling it, or even lower) is headed.

 

As the St Louis Fed so kindly reminds us, the two previous times US manufacturing orders declined at this rate on an unadjusted (or adjusted) basis, the US economy was already in a recession.

 

And now, time for consensus to be shocked once again when the Fed yanks the rug from under the feet of the rite-hike-istas.

 

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Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:23 | 5857692 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Thats ok.  They'll just change the GDP calculation so it shows we are not in a recession.  WInning!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:24 | 5857700 observer007
observer007's picture

Did u know...

Thousands Of Military Vehicles Lined Up Outside Of Underground Bunkers In America - What Are They Preparing For Now?

 

http://homment.com/usmilitary

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:25 | 5857705 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Nope.  Everything is *AWESMOE* 

Seriously.  

Everyone go long AAPL, TSLA and MSFT. 

BTFATH OR GTFO 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:32 | 5857738 Silver Short Seller
Silver Short Seller's picture

ZH analysis fails to mention the strong USD, which explains the decline in factory orders. No wonder these guys hide behind anonymity.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:35 | 5857749 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

So they charge for drone strikes ?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:43 | 5857781 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

 "strong USD" = Strong U. S. Decline? or perhaps Disintegration?... Or BOTH?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:44 | 5857792 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Dang, we can not even win a currency war.  Is there anything, anything at all, that we can win at?  Seriously, anything?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:48 | 5857814 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Country with most prisoners per capita in the world?  USA! USA! USA!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:08 | 5857886 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

'Nother recession??  No problemo!!!  Set the printer to RAMMING SPEED!!! 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:18 | 5858182 new game
new game's picture

strong dolla, think swissy, too good to be good, ha...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:52 | 5858303 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Sorry, your ramming speed is for pussies.

THIS is "let's see what you're made of" ramming speed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjmbgZ2wZvk

 

Fri, 03/06/2015 - 11:29 | 5861313 venturen
venturen's picture

no one prints more money than us.. No one gives more money to do nothing bankers and lawyers than us!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:02 | 5857868 G.O.O.D
G.O.O.D's picture

We are hands down the best at spinning "news" into pure fabricated bullshit. We won the war on truth.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:13 | 5857909 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Yup, the truth seems to be the biggest casualty since 2009.  Everyone is now doing everything BUT tell the truth.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:45 | 5858022 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

You are all living in the old America , we do not need manufacturing or job's to make America great we just need wall street and the stock market and all is well . 97 million people do not have to work another 47 million people do not even have to buy thier own food with a little more effort from our lord and excelent one King Obama , no one will have to work in America ever again as we let the rest of the world be our bitches and we just give them green coupons that are worthless (but they don't know that yet) So sit back and enjoy the good time's . Well got to go social services are doing a free golf round wed though Friday , thank's Obama you got my back.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:55 | 5858069 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Since Main Street private sector is in a depression, an upgrade to recession for them would be an improvement.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:10 | 5858138 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

There is more to what you say than even you might think. America's overall wealth is boosted about one half just by the dollar being printable and accepted world wide as a store of wealth. In fact it is no such thing, as no wealth was created in America to back the newly printed dollars. They simply are printed. Thus the world acts as quasi slave for America and Americans. Our public and private wealth is boosted by this free wealth. The world has not yet caught on that we export poverty and inflation with our dollars, and get economic wealth in return.

Every American would have to cut their life style by half and government would have to spend only on half of what it does now, IF America lost the extraordinary privilege of dollar printing and acceptance as world reserve currency, needed in every international trade transaction on a global scale.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:21 | 5858194 new game
new game's picture

too good to be good. this shit show ends very badly, oh we all know the final act, history, bab-bye, history...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 16:52 | 5858771 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Jack,

"IF America lost the extraordinary privilege of dollar printing and acceptance as world reserve currency"

thats why it is important to release photos of our military compounds loaded to the brim with tanks and weapons.

 

Thousands Of Military Vehicles Lined Up Outside Of Underground Bunkers In America - What Are They Preparing For Now?

 http://homment.com/usmilitary

and those are old ammo bunkers in the photo.  cheap parking for the MIC, and if it is on Google earth it was meant to be seen.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 18:23 | 5859088 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Isn't that what USA penchant for war really is about?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:08 | 5857888 Mr. Bones
Mr. Bones's picture

Well the war on poverty was an unmitigated failure, the war on drugs is the same, the war on terror is growing like a cancer but bearing no real frut, perhaps if we officially declare war on sensible monetary and fiscal policy we can fail at that and accidentally win.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:35 | 5857984 nakki
nakki's picture

I remember way back in the late 90'S early 2000'S when the government used to talk about the 20% or so waste that was attributed to fraud. We never hear about it anymore. Between the MIC, heath care, and homeland, prisons, banks, fraud probably costs the US Gobermint 700 billion a year. The war on everything is not about winning, its about embezzlement. The war on terror, the 50 year war is about money. This country won a 2 front war in less than 4 years and yet, the war on terror is an open checkbook to keep us safe. Like I used to tell my friend you're either a empire or not. Last week we get the big plan to get ISIS jobs after we kill half of them. How much money was needlessly spent in Iraq by our government hiring contractors instead of locals? Just remember its never about WINING, its about stealing money.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:39 | 5858000 Hohum
Hohum's picture

One person's waste is another's income.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:06 | 5858122 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Ill begotten as it may be...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:57 | 5858328 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

The war on everything is not about winning, its about embezzlement.

This is all you need to know.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:34 | 5858473 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Fraud was once seen as a drag on economic growth. It is now viewed as the prefered economic model!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:05 | 5858116 froze25
froze25's picture

""strong USD" = Strong U. S. Decline? or perhaps Disintegration?... Or BOTH?"

If the strategy is to wreck the Nation as we know it, then "they" are doing swimmingly.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:56 | 5858522 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

absolFUCKINGloutely!

 

Palestine &/or 'Madagascar'... Apparently... wasn't a suitable homeland...

 

<If any CANADIANS junk this comment... INCLUDING MS CREANT... Then IT IS SURE that all is lost for several centuries>

 

Go ahead Ms Creant... ASK ME WHY... I'm quite sure that subeito will have your back on this because... AFTER ALL... BOTH of you have tenure on ZH & 'Thirst Mutilator' is a lowly 'COOK' [on the same level as Casey Raybeck]...

 

Get my PIES out of the oven BITCHEZ!!!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 16:11 | 5858620 taoJones
taoJones's picture

OK, I'll ask why... but not because I disagree, but because I live in YellowKnife

 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 16:27 | 5858668 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

@taoJones

 

This may go back to before your 'time' on ZH...

 

But 'yours truly' tossed it up [BACK IN THE DAY]... With Ms Creant... whereby, at the time it was revealed that Ms Creant was, in fact, a Canuck...

 

Not that that is, in of itself, BAD... But in the 'spirit' of the topics being tossed about [& with the 'atmosphere' of ZH being what it was at that time]...

 

IT WAS RELEVANT...

 

I'll be the first to say that 'the spirit' of things may have changed since then [for better or for worse]...

 

Me?

 

I simply HATE LIES...

 

As afootnote... It MAKES ZERO DIFFERENCE as to whether Ms Creant is a 'CANUCK' or not... The only thing that makes a difference is the ATTITUDE of people [over time], & whether, or not, those attitudes are COMPROMISED [over time], based on pre-conditioining or otherwise...

 

Surprisingly, there have been a number of ZERO HEDGE threads... lately... that have shined a spotlight upon that notion...

 

I invite you to read through them &, of course, come to your own conclusions on the subject...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 16:35 | 5858696 taoJones
taoJones's picture

Thanks TM... will do... I thoroughly enjoy the banter here, gay & otherwise :)

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:37 | 5857759 Toxicosis
Toxicosis's picture

I thought a strong dollar represented a strong econonmy, not the other way around?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:44 | 5857794 aardvarkk
aardvarkk's picture

Complaints about anonymity from the guy who's parents apparently saw fit to name him "Silver Seller", with "Short" as a middle name.  I mean, "Short"?  That's gotta be some sort of family inside joke or something.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:47 | 5857810 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Strong USD' simply means 'we can drone strike you first' and that's all

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:53 | 5857831 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Why yes, thank you for the keen observation: there usually is a reason for recessions.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:16 | 5858168 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

SSS - so the others are just falling faster than the USD? that's comforting.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:43 | 5858271 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Wait a minute.... I thought we were supposed to take out 7 year car loans and buy stocks to solve all of this. Why do we need factory orders? I'm so confused. I'll be in the corner wearing the Cone of Shame for failing to grasp economics.

Miffed

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:41 | 5858495 Element
Element's picture

It's simple, the cars come from factories, so the deeper dilemma is that not enough people are taking out 7-year car loans, to buy factory stawks, to obtain profits, to pay back the car loan, hence factory orders fall due to the lack of punters able to take on more subprime debt.

 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 17:41 | 5858949 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Ok, now that is either a circular argument or I am experiencing a sensory saltation. In either case I do believe I need a drink.

Miffed;-)

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:28 | 5857720 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Don't worry, it's just a drill.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:21 | 5857933 Shad_ow
Shad_ow's picture

It's a long a$$ drill. We've been drilling since 2008 and are getting better and better at receeding.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:31 | 5857732 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

It's been like that for quite some time.  Just wait, if you have cash, you be able to buy some of this stuff at firesale prices.  Pretty cool for anyone with the cash who also likes to hunt or access remote places.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:06 | 5857879 G.O.O.D
G.O.O.D's picture

Looking for that 10.000 round stash of .22 shells some old widow is going to unload when "crazy grandpa" kicks it. Going to be in a yard sale some place I just know it.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:19 | 5857930 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Keep hope alive.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:49 | 5857811 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

 "Thousands Of Military Vehicles Lined Up Outside Of Underground Bunkers In America - What Are They Preparing For Now?"

 

Well, naturally they're dutifully preparing for the day that our 'SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT' is able to withstand, &, survives, in the event of some unforseeable catastrophe that nobody could have ever predicted...

 

Note: I said 'SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT'... The 'peeps' [who, some white beards said, once upon a time, that government was supposed to represent]?

 

Well ~ Fuck 'em if they can't take a joke [or, more importantly, can't get a dual passport].

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:59 | 5858055 GCT
GCT's picture

I am more worried about local law enforcement arming themselves with armored vehicles they have no need to serve and protect us.  These vehicles and for that matter all military hardware go to several depots after coming home from a war and has been going on since WWII. 

The depots will repair, refurbish and update the equipment with new modifications to bring them up to date with the currently manufactured new equipment.  Now if you want to really see stockpile of US military equipment just jump to Europe or places that are friendly to the USA in other parts of the world.  Many here if they served will remember REFORGER in Europe or the war games in South Korea.  They do indeed stock a couple of Divisions worth of up to date military gear in these countries for USA military to simply fly the service members over and they draw the equipment. 

At one time Saudi Arabia had a site the size of Rhode Island stocked with US military gear.  Not sure if it is still there to be honest.

All military gear ships all over the USA to depots that service the equipment.  Nothing new here actually.  I like many here believe the government is not our friend but this is just something that happens to all military gear depending on the type of equipment being serviced.  Apache helicopters go to Fort Hood for rehab and updating when it returns home.  Another depot is in Washington state for light infantry forces gear to be refurbished, aircraft carriers, and nuclear subs as well.  What many do not realize is most military bases in the USA do indeed have depots for military equipment and there is alot more gear located on these bases but is over looked because they are military bases. 

Do not fret over this one all nothing to see here.  Looks like a heavy vehicle depot to me where they will store these vehicles and repair and update them.  All Depot level maintenance is consolidated in many places.

Fri, 03/06/2015 - 07:28 | 5860608 new game
new game's picture

only depot of failing ammo is treasuries. that pile(depot) will become the ammo that misfires.

they will pull the trigger(qe 4) and click as the enemy bears down on uncle sams ass and get its' flesh and bones reduced to a pink spot on the earth. plans are being laid as i speak. look no further than the adversaries to understand how this plays out...

rock on and stack something, gonna need it soon.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:11 | 5857903 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

But Obama said the shadow-crisis has passed. Was he lying,,, again?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:10 | 5858139 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Obama doesn't use words like 'crisis'.  I think he called it a bump in the road...;)

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:52 | 5858049 Toxx
Toxx's picture

It's just another drill.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:45 | 5858276 PTR
PTR's picture

Hey - the sierra army depot.  Dangerous place.

 

http://fallout.wikia.com/wiki/Sierra_Army_Depot

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:27 | 5857714 City_Of_Champyinz
City_Of_Champyinz's picture

That and a new unemployment rate will fix everything....

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:28 | 5857717 venturen
venturen's picture

What difference dows it make...MARKET WILL GO UP!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:45 | 5858026 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

It'll be like Lucy yanking the football away just as Charlie Brown tries to kick it.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:23 | 5857694 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Does the fact that we are in a recession mean the depression is over? Happy days are here again bitchez!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:34 | 5857748 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

An I-phone in every pot!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:46 | 5858529 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

. . .and pot in every pipe.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:40 | 5857772 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i was just going to say that.

 

 a recession would be something to be happy about, because right now we are nowhere near a recession unfortunately. because we are in a full fledged depression.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:23 | 5857697 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Easy fix, make paper pushing (which requires no real inputs) more of the GDP....

I mean why make anything fucking real  at all...

/s

 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:42 | 5857780 cornfritter
cornfritter's picture

"They" have steadily changed the productivity metrics over the years to suit their fancy.  WHat's left is certainly not a "vibrant" diverse economy.  They shovel "money" out of the temples to their minions who put it much of it back into the temples.  Meanwhile, the populace is on the brink of freakin' starvation. 

 

Solution: proliferation of limited republics around the globe, with no balance in the treasuries allowed.  100% silver backed currencies, no usury period.  No central banks.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:49 | 5857812 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, the warlords with access to former soviet or American hardware will be the issue.  I already see all kinds of "unofficial" economic activity around our operation.  Municipalites will be getting desparate soon as many people bartering and trading goods and services under the table, tax free.

Again, I am in an area with many verterans and active duty people too.  Many involved local SWAT, they are NOT going to commit crimes against their neighbors, so good luck to the bankers and financiers when the levy breaks that's holding back all this paper bullshit.

Until the bad debt is allowed to fucking clear, most of which is fucking fraudulent to begin with, nothing changes, global weimar is only a matter of time now.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:24 | 5857949 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Any muffugger who is involved with SWAT is more than ready and EAGER to commit crimes against their neighbors and do so on a regular basis.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:37 | 5857988 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

FAIL.  Not all neighborhoods or SWAT teams are created equally you stupid fuck. 

 

Location, location, location.

 

Get out of the basement kid, it's a big world out there.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:24 | 5857698 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Yellen will grow a dick before raising rates.

The ECB will print to infinity to make up for the difference at some point, so the Fed can save face.  

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:26 | 5857708 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

She's a man baby, try again.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:17 | 5857706 SloMoe
SloMoe's picture

No worries. Greece is going to be the world's next "engine of growth."

You heard it here first...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:48 | 5858288 PTR
PTR's picture

Oh good.  For a moment, I was worried that there wouldn't be any increasing valuations for global re-re-re-re-re-re-hypotication activities.  

 

*Phew*

 

Keep calm and leverage on.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:27 | 5857712 Rainman
Rainman's picture

oh well ... energy cap ex was a helluva drug while it lasted.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:30 | 5857728 Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho's picture

If the Omomma Care subsidies are cancelled, this puppy will be a full on depression.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:30 | 5857729 Hohum
Hohum's picture

I have to ask: recession doesn't mean stock prices will fall, does it?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:31 | 5857736 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

not anymore...

global weimar, eventually...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:12 | 5857739 SloMoe
SloMoe's picture

Don't be silly. Stock prices will never fall.

Never. Ever.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:49 | 5858293 PTR
PTR's picture

I have to ask: recession doesn't mean stock prices will fall, does it?

Of course not.  Venezuela as case-in-point.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:34 | 5857747 Thisisbullishright
Thisisbullishright's picture

I posted this in an earlier post....

Some anecdotal evidence:

My company makes corrugated fiberboard (cardboard), I do all the corporate analysis for 4 plants.  We have done nothing but grow by double digits for the past 5 years.

In the last 2 months I have calculated and analyzed our worst production volumes YOY...and not because of the WEATHER.  We are down double digits from last year when the weather was even worse!

We are hoping it picks back up but a couple of shifts may be laid off if it doesnt...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:44 | 5857791 kowalli
kowalli's picture

No electricity soon,don't worry

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:45 | 5857799 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Same here in South Florida.

The normal 10 day lull after new year has still not recovered to date.

Its like the economy was pole axed for Xmas.

Even my 0.1% clients are not spending, and they were shaming drunken sailors uptil then.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:54 | 5857834 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

fly over country reporting anectdotely:  our company was down 30% last month compared to last year and we were down last year compared to the one prior.  people have no money to spend and will choose the "walmart" brand because that's all they can afford.  Same is true for the second job--business is significantly down and it's in something used every day that people need to make their vehicles work.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:00 | 5857845 kowalli
kowalli's picture

you just need to have some assets

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 17:16 | 5858864 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I tried calling Yellen for some inheretable assets but she won't return my calls.

 

Besides which people are spending more on dining out than grocery shopping so everything must be awesome

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:14 | 5858394 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Hey, this is bullish, carboard makes boxes that shit is shipped in, right?

If cardboard production is way the hell off, maybe a leading indicator?

Or maybe we are just re-cycling more? Nope: http://www.paperonweb.com/USA.htm

Keep posting Bullish, this may be a pretty good leading indicator.

 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:36 | 5857754 SillyWabbits
SillyWabbits's picture

It is different this time.

Last time, we didn’t have multiculturalism and diversity!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:45 | 5857800 homebody
homebody's picture

What about political correctness and affirmative action  

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:36 | 5857755 SMC
SMC's picture

Too much "seasonally adjusted" , "new definitions", etc... <bankster ruled agency>.gov BS.  This Depression is getting worse... 

Things are so looney tunes now, perhaps "Just Us" will maintain civil peace and buy votes by requiring credit card companies to implement negative interest rates for a year before and after the election.

The horror... The horror....  ;-)

 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:39 | 5857768 Madcow
Madcow's picture

the bankers put up a good fight. but they're out of ammo - and fixin' to be overwhlemed by their own off-spring

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:43 | 5857786 nscholten
nscholten's picture

We have another 6 months to go.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:52 | 5857826 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Clean out the Christmas Club.................Oh, forgot to start one for the past 6 years................

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:44 | 5857790 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

QE 5 is dead ahead, the recession has never left.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:47 | 5857804 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

A quick scan of all the bad news on ZH today appears to confirm that the Feds will be driving the market even higher....no rate hike for the foreseeable future.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:50 | 5857817 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Depression

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:52 | 5857827 homebody
homebody's picture

Quick   push the reset button

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:54 | 5857835 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, in real terms since 2001.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:53 | 5857832 laomei
laomei's picture

The recession never actually ended, it's all been bullshit to try and reinflate the bubble, but they never even bothered to patch the holes.  it's a futile effort.  all you see right now is the end result of that idiotic policy.  even the fake numbers are coming up negative... when it hits hard again it will be on an epic scale not seen in generations (if ever).  In the past, there has been malinvestment to prop up a failing economy.  But typically, that investment was made in actual things that exist.  Even after the regime ended, generations of people afterwards continue to see positive benefit from those investments.  Public infrastructure, actual jobs, public works, etc.  This time...it's all been pissed away, and pissed away in a way that is simply impossible to even begin to comprehend in a rational way.  The numbers are so high that it's simply no longer meaningful to try and rationalize it.  It's like writing out a check for a "bajillion zillion dollars"... anyone who sees it is just going to laugh.  The numbers this time are unreal, but the negative impact of them is going to be very very real indeed.

 

I've enjoyed this bubble ride, really, I have.  My assets have grown by some hilarious figures, but this Friday is the day I have decided to close out the vast majority of my positions.  Not going to bother chasing the tail-end when I can lock in all the profits and convert it to gold and sit on it.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:01 | 5857865 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

laomei, beware of the possibility of a "repentance". in fact, go and look how the bubbles of the era of Sir Isaac Newton fooled even him

he sold everything. then, for one year, he watched how his friends became even richer, and richer. and then... he got back in just in time to be badly burned

just saying, if you are already out... watch that itch. if it's too strong, don't go all in again. write a diary, if it helps, and read it regularly again

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:36 | 5858482 laomei
laomei's picture

if you are an insider, feel free to chase the apex.  otherwise the #1 rule is to not get greedy.  enough is enough and that's good enough.  My positions are up around 150% as it is.  they have not been moving much in the past few weeks and it's feeling like a top.  during the run up i received ZERO communications from the banks about funds to invest in.  Now, suddenly, I'm getting calls, emails, texts non-stop about such and such fund being such a "great" investment.  In other words, they are muppet hunting, which means it's time to bail.  I don't care if i miss out on another 5~10%.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:57 | 5858552 Element
Element's picture

Excellent post(s) ... everyone with a clue knew in Oct 2008 was suicide propping toxin filled TBTFs. The only way they could halt their implosion was to sever asset price from markets and only then did re-inflation start once they had killed the market in a way they could not undo. And this simply made the zombies even more toxic and far larger, and Ben labelled it 'recovery from recession' on Sept 14th 2009.

Fri, 03/06/2015 - 08:24 | 5860668 laomei
laomei's picture

Aaaand i'm officially *out*.  152% profit on investments.  I turned 250,000 RMB into 630,000, and tomorrow morning I am turning the principle into a 1kg bar of gold and dumping the profits into some 5.8% insured funds.  Good enough for me at the moment for this chunk of cash.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:03 | 5858108 ljag
ljag's picture

"Convert it to gold and sit on it". Now there is a belly laugh. GL with that

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:37 | 5858487 laomei
laomei's picture

Fairly easy to do actually.  I cash out my funds, go to the gold market and buy more gold to add to the pile.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:56 | 5857844 jtz5
jtz5's picture

What a douchbag...

The prices of assets such as stocks have overshot due in part to record low interest rates and money printing by major central banks, and will see a correction "at some point", a top Fed official said on Thursday.

"I believe markets have overshot and we're in for a correction at some point," said Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, answering questions after a lecture in London.

Fisher cited the U.S. S&P 500 and Britain's FTSE 100 stock indexes as examples of this trend.

He added that it will be difficult to gauge the full market impact of the central bank's stimulus measures until monetary policy is normalised.

"We won't know the result until we normalise monetary policy and that will take several years," Fisher said.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:56 | 5857847 Sir SpeaksALot
Sir SpeaksALot's picture

1 thing for sure - seasonal adjustment is a fucking scam.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:04 | 5857864 homebody
homebody's picture

What about housing purchase agreements (guaranteed sales of course)

 

What about profitability through stock buy backs

 

What about pre-orders - love that one

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 12:58 | 5857854 virtualInsanity
virtualInsanity's picture

It's different this time. We didn't have the quantum computer now running our whole economy. Virtual Insanity to us but a utopia in the making...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:04 | 5857870 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

I am so sick of this fucking Weekend at Bernie's economy...

And then I remember they made a SEQUEL to that movie! So we may have to sit through another 'two hours' of watching a decaying corpse being dragged through a tired plot.

I just keep telling myself there can't POSSIBLY be a third installment...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:09 | 5857895 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

I live in the Santa Clara Valley - otherwise known as 'Silicon Valley', CA.   The traffic here is probably the worst I have ever seen it during peak commute hours.   Tim Knight would likely confirm my observations.   There has been an absolute space-shuttle like vertical rise in employment, rent, housing, construction, and all the attendant things since 2012.   It's off the charts...   When cracks begin to appear in this sector, you'll know it's 'game-on' for a rollover.   We haven't had a good colon cleanse here since 2000.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:21 | 5858423 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Are you my son? Great job, hi income (lots better than his Dad ever did) - been looking for a house for like two years , bid on a few at above market, (low 7 figures) still didn't have a chance. All those dot.com millionaires...Fuck, it is crazy, but when cometh the fall, it is gonna be a bitch.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:13 | 5857910 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

I'm impressed at how well seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted agree. They need to learn data fudging to become a better part of the team.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:21 | 5857934 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

So, isn't moving from a depression to a recession a good thing?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:27 | 5857954 ChargingHandle
ChargingHandle's picture

It's different this time....we have Obama. 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:54 | 5858060 Jano
Jano's picture

Healthcare plan , AHA, saved Q4.
Soetoro has to invent any other industry incentive, for example a bicycle to every American Citizen. A Vietnam style recovery.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:02 | 5858102 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Everyone having a bicycle in the USA might be a good thing: more exercise, fewer vehicle deaths, fresh air for iFans.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 16:14 | 5858630 Shitgum Suicide
Shitgum Suicide's picture

Hohum- umm actually more people are getting injured from riding bikes because they are having more accidents resulting in more head injuries because there isn't a bumper to stop the other car that's heading towards them.

Plus bikers more than not do not follow the rules of the road hence they CAUSE more accidents.

Now some assholes in government want to force adults to war helmets because we force kids to wear them. Because that's what government thinks of you, a fucking helpless child.

http://la.streetsblog.org/2015/02/12/senator-introduces-mandatory-bicycl...

Fri, 03/06/2015 - 03:33 | 5860441 Manic by Proxy
Manic by Proxy's picture

Wait - you mean some assholes ride without helmets? Voluntarily? That's as pathetic as shithead politicians passing laws to diminish personal liberty and responsibility. We should be free to chose to ride without helmets. And we certainly should be responsible enough not to engage emergency services, medical care, rehab services, disability benefits because we squashed our melons while we exercised our God- given right as a Murikan to ride without a helmet. 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:59 | 5858567 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

A Vietnam style recovery.

Jano - not exactly. In Vietnam, their infrastructure was ruined, they had lost a huge amount of young male citizens (demographic hole), the North country was ravenged (2-4D): but they had pride in country and themselves. (I was there in 1985 as part of a NGO operation). 

They were used to doing without, and now had a chance to re-build, which they took.

How do you think our priveleged, entitled folks of today would deal with a bottom-up recovery?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 16:49 | 5858753 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

I believe that the entitled folks would 'release the kraken' and make sure those bottom dwellers don't recover.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 13:56 | 5858071 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Recession? Not likely as the Federal Reserve has successfully eliminated recessions and repealed the business cycle. The only direction now for markets is upwards on Fed QE and ZIRP rocket fuel. 2008 was the last recession, Federal Reserve central planning, interest rate manipulation, money printing, liquidity injection and market manipulation is now able to make the recession a thing of the past. After all, in 2008, what really was corrected, who really went bankrupt for their failed trading of business plans?

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:05 | 5858115 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Who cares. We're all doomed and soon going to die from nuclear war anyhow.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:18 | 5858409 Comte d'herblay
Comte d&#039;herblay's picture

Not here in the Northeast, where our fate is sealed in snow drifts, and mountains of ice.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:09 | 5858136 Nue
Nue's picture

NO!!!!!! This time it's different. O_o

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:50 | 5858541 CompassionateCo...
CompassionateConservative's picture

This time IS different.  We have a good strong leader at the helm here in America.  You can rest easy knowing that Barack has your back.  I'd hate to think of the U.S. as having any other president than the one we have now.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 16:12 | 5858574 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Yes, (Allah Bless Him). I was at morning prayers today, saying the same thing to Achmed, our Imam. I had worked hard all night in the dark. I made a contribution to our small mosque.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 16:29 | 5858678 In.Sip.ient
In.Sip.ient's picture

"I'd hate to think of the U.S. as having any other president than the one we have now."

 

Hilarious as that statement is, the really frightening thing is in 2 years

we may very well all agree with that statement...

 

 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 14:35 | 5858244 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

The truth is on its way all big and ugly. Sadly their are not many around that can do things all by themselves.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:04 | 5858347 BeaverCream
BeaverCream's picture

Hey recess was my favorite class.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:21 | 5858404 homebody
homebody's picture

Hey the market only traded 100 shares today but it is way up - ever increasing bullshit with diminishing returns - except for the lucky, good, handsome, smart, tall, - hell no just the friends of the money printers.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:18 | 5858411 Element
Element's picture

Polar votex from dangerous global warming did it.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:27 | 5858445 Comte d'herblay
Comte d&#039;herblay's picture

At 5 dark 20 I took a 4 point buck with my crossbow, didn't disturb the neighbors, gutted and skinned, and parted out by 7 am.

No one saw a thing, and I'm in venison for at least 6 months. Maybe I'll even tan the hide, make some trinkets out of the bones, antlers, and sell them on the interweb. 

I tried to milk the cat but got nowhere, just a buncha scratches. 

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:40 | 5858502 Buster Cherry
Buster Cherry's picture

My plan for fresh meat to the letter....except I didn't think of the trinket angle.

The lake I live near has 2 islands. I get the wife to drop me off the night before, camp and follow your script.

Get on the cell and have her pick me back up and fill the freeezer. The white bass will be schooling in the main lake soon as well.

Free food.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:45 | 5858520 Buster Cherry
Buster Cherry's picture

Oh yeah, I meant to post the question: We're approaching a recession????

We've been in a depression since 2008.

 

Fri, 03/06/2015 - 09:19 | 5860757 Comte d'herblay
Comte d&#039;herblay's picture

Sports guy chest bump, but lake fish leave me with a funny aftertaste.  Soon I expect the Ocean fish will too.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 16:09 | 5858611 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Ha! At O-dark 30 I took 2 crack dealers with my suppressed glock and relieved them of their stash, cash, and gold jewelry. What a haul!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 19:30 | 5859308 Buster Cherry
Buster Cherry's picture

Shit that's awesome!

Probably safer than illegal deer hunting to boot!

Fri, 03/06/2015 - 09:18 | 5860752 Comte d'herblay
Comte d&#039;herblay's picture

You R not learning, which is the main goal of ZH.

It's not illegal if you are 1) careful and don't get caught, 2) get caught but pay off the law to look away, 3) get caught, gat prosecuted, but get a pardon from a corrupt official to whom you gave the Backstrap, liver and heart.

You're not paying attention in how to survive and prosper in a zionist controlled, MaD MAX post apocalyptic world.

"Being SAFE"  is a pussy's attitude because safe is gone forever.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 16:37 | 5858705 cornfritter
cornfritter's picture

i almost teared up...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:30 | 5858447 mt paul
mt paul's picture

dollar value rises

euro value declines

 

parity 

is when things get really interesting...

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:36 | 5858481 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

The US still has factories?  I don't think so.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:48 | 5858532 CompassionateCo...
CompassionateConservative's picture

Lies, lies, lies!  Who am I to believe?  Real, honest to goodness economists like Ben Bernanke, Jim Cramer, and Paul Krugman or the charlatans on internet sites like this?  All I have to do is open my own two eyes and see the powerful economic recovery we're in.  The green shoots are absolutely everywhere and now is an excellent time to buy stocks.  And just pause to think how much higher things go if we do some simple things like getting on board with Prime Minister Netanyahu's plan for Iran and making the streets safe by banning guns?  Come on people, let's get with the program.  Spreading sickening lies just because you are racist against the first black president of the United States.  You know deep down that his policies are for the most part genius and are taking us all in the right direction but you don't like him just because he's black. 

Come on people!  Times are great!

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:57 | 5858560 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

LOL, Janet will never allow a recession to take place on her shift.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 15:58 | 5858561 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

O/T, but funny, US General goes conspiracy theorist!

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150304/1019064127.html

He also complained the Krauts were slack.

Thu, 03/05/2015 - 18:15 | 5859062 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

One molecule of truth at last, among all the flatus.

Fri, 03/06/2015 - 01:30 | 5860308 g'kar
g&#039;kar's picture

So we have upgraded from a depression to a recession. Booyah

Fri, 03/06/2015 - 03:53 | 5860457 Manic by Proxy
Manic by Proxy's picture

My psychiatrist explained to me that sometimes recession can be a good thing. After treating my depression with a variety of SSRI's, my suicidal thoughts decreased and I felt better. He told me I was moving from depression to recession. So, that's a plus. Of course, I had tried to explain to him that I was suicidal due to a foreign-born interloper being elected President by the knuckle-dragging, low data, free shit army. Being a Carter Democrat, he treated THAT apparent delusion with antipsychotics. But now I'm better. Now I believe Obama is the very best President and Michelle is actually a woman.

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