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Lumber Is Liquidating
The most economically-sensitive commodity is plunging once again. Lumber prices have cratered today to their lowest since June 2013, seemingly tracking the collapse in US Macro data over the last 2 months. First it was Lumber Liquidators, and now the underlying is seeing the biggest weekly drop in six months (and down 5 weeks in a row). As a reminder, the last time lumber and stocks diverged like this... it did not end well...
First it was Lumber Liquidators...
Timberrrr.....
Deja vu...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Can't see the wood for the trees? - Buy the DAX !
Buy XAD!
Transitory, BULLISH!! PHuck the Fed.
TIMBER!!!!!
Timber is right! Looks like it has bit of a ways to keep falling.
Liquidated lumber?
Dry it and press it into smellin’ Yellen printer paper.
looks like it is almost time to build my 3 bay garage with auto lift, and appartment on top, fix cars and rent out top floor. Win! Win! All with discounted lumber.
i thought lumber liquidators used and sold reclaimed wood not some shit from china with lead formaldehyde and all kinds of other chinese garbage in it. my bad.
BuLLish! Buy stump grinders.
Algo1: "Need VWAP so Jamie's traders can re-short, watcha got?"
Algo2: "Cell phone video of Bullard stmt from WMT parking lot, holding box of Sugar Pops"
It will come back when we have self paying negative mortgage rates. BTFD.
There is no housing bubble.
LOL!
In a consumer economy falling prices are sold as a net positive. "I can drive to the lumber store and buy twice as much as I could last summer! And gas prices are down so I'll drive some more!" Foregtting along the way that when price drops so do margins and thusly job growth.
Judging by gas prices relative to oil, somebody is making a very nice margin.
Yes, the federal and state governments are making the most off of each gallon of gas. In CA it's something like 60 cents per gallon. NICE take for doing nothing but harassing the gas manufacturers, forcing their production costs up.
Gas and diesel taxes wouldn't be as offenseve if those funds were transparently earmarked for the infrastructure that the vehicles use when burning said fuels. But we all know that such arrangements are either cheated or don't exist.
Totally true... back in the mid eighties i got into the oil biz selling for a jobber. The bottom dropped out on oil circa 1986, how quick do you think we were to drop our prices? Those HUGE margins were just too tempting...
Lumber and Oil just need more social media exposure.
Yes you are right, they are just misunderstood.
It's cheaper to run the chain saws with gas prices down so lumber is cheaper. /s
Formaldehyde...?
Lumber Liquidators got smacked by the hit piece on 60 Minutes about offgassing laminate flooring.
The soccer moms are looking for blood since their precious children are being exposed to "toxic" gases.
H/T moms. If you spend 1/4 the price of hardwood, dont expect it to act like hardwood.
More alar, arsenic, chilean grape, ISIS, Ebola fear mongering from the MSM.
Was in LL the other day.Deserted.
Hey there Brown Eye winking-
The only amazing thing about the 60 Minute Lumber Liquidator piece was that it got aired at all. Formaldehyde is deadly and it is all throughout the Cheap, Shitty Chinese, so-called laminated flooring. A micro thin veneer glued to shitty particle board. And it is in houses all over the place.
People wonder why their kids are getting sick- that's why. Headache inducing, vomit creating crap brought in on the Clinton/China foundation.
But we all know that lumber is rigged, rifght?
with interest rates rising (for now) ... spring home selling season could be a bloodbath
got popcorn?
Our selling season is drawing to a close down here(s.Florida).
Some serious price cuts coming thru' on zillow already.
Timber ?
Geitner out of the way!
Here in California our lumber taxes have increased over the past few years. That has had an effect all through out the industry including home builders. Not sure what ts like in other states but the "recovering economy" sure isn't Instilling confidence in anybody.
California has a specific lumber tax?
Yer kidding, right?
all the charts of commods needed for any growth look like upside down hockey sticks.
i think it is very telling of the corner the fed is residing in. print moar? raise rates to simulate a faux econ on bullshit? bite the bullet and let it go and find its' own bottom(s).-ha, fuckers would never do that! so it is print...
crude needs to "liquidate"
last week's inventory build (over 10 million barrels) largest since march 2001 ... coincidentally the month that 2001 recession started
Good, I need to build some more hives. What is cypress down to?
<------ Not a beekeeper
Would you mind expanding on why one would use cypress instead of other woods?
Me neither, but, cypress doesn't rot and is not toxic like treated wood would bee.
There you go. Use cedar if you just want to kill the bees and a bunch of other insects too...
Today's manufactured "lumber" the wooden version of Chicken McNuggets, and is typically imported from 3rd world countries.
can you build a house of cards with lumber?
Sure, you grind up into pulp, bleach it, press it into sheets, cut the sheets to size, apply a gloss finish and the various markings, then start building.
What I find funny is the Tyler's not doing a post about how the PM's are getting "crushed", even though gold is below 1200 and silver is back in the 15's.
The real question for all of this is are we going to go through a slow-mo deflation soft landing or are we gonna wake up one day and a major change occurs that can't be undone?
We will all be Bobby Ewing one day.
I don't mind as long as we get to Sue Yellen.
Pamela. Anybody except Charlene Tilton.
That's every day.
Rents are skyrocketing, but nobody is building. Thank you Federal Reserve for this masterpiece of failed central planning.
Squatting looks like the next big thing in the US housing market.
It's Deja vu all over again!
Well, it shouldn't cost much to build my new house.
The graphs show that the last divergence lasted about 4 years. Currently, one year. Also, lumber prices bottomed 50% below current levels. I was hoping to build a shed this spring. I may have to wait a few more years...
Awh its the weather. Everybody knows that.
will trade saw logs
for silver..
This is why I find it hard to believe it's really expensive to build a new home when commodity prices are in the tank. Some industries need some wake up juice, it's like everyone is asleep at the wheel and won't accept reality until the world piledrives them.
Probably the plot was bought at te peak in 2006/7 with 7 years carry costs.
Developers usually have a ten year land bank.
Just a guess, but another consequence of not letting the market truly clear.
Funny how lumber futures skyrocket right when bernanke announced QEfinitiy. Fed induced sht economy.
It couldn't have happened to a nicer company.
There goes bowling night a the local AMF in Williamsburg.
Its because everyone is converting to solar and wind made wood...
I'm sure it has nothing to do with last week's 60 Minutes report
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/lumber-liquidators-linked-to-health-and-safe...
Gee, this is GREAT news! This is gonna cut my toothpic budget in half at least.
HEY HONEY. WE'RE FINALLY GONNA BE ABLE TO AFFORD THAT WEEKEND IN PARIS YOU'VE ALWAYS WANTED.
Is it a case of lumber dropping or a case of dollar value of lumber dropping as dollar gains against the euro?
At least we no longer have to worry about the sheetrock in our homes.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/18/chinese.drywall/