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The One Chart You Need To Predict The Future
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
We are witnessing a profound secular sea-change: the failure of expanding debt and leverage to lift the real economy of wages and household income.
When push comes to shove, you only need one chart to predict the future: debt and wages ( credit and compensation). This chart displays debt and wages as a ratio: debt/wages. What it reveals is the endgame of financialization: creating more debt no longer pushes wages higher.
I have broken the past five decades into easily recognizable economic periods. During the organic growth of the 1960s that many view as the ideal--what I term the pre-financialized economy, the line is almost flat, as debt and wages expanded in a balanced fashion.
The 1970s, a rocky period of stagflation, higher energy costs and painful adjustments to the economy, is remarkably stable when boiled down to the debt/wage ratio.
Financialization--the securitization of previously stable assets, the expansion of leverage and speculative financial instruments--began in the early 1980s. We see the effect of rapidly expanding debt on the economy: the line leaps higher and only flattens out in the tech-boom 1990s.
Why did the ratio flatten out? This was a period of organic expansion similar to the 1960s: wages expanded as did the number of jobs. Debt and wages once again expanded in a balanced fashion.
After the tech bubble burst, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and pushed financialization to the max. The debt/wage ratio line soared on the rocket fuel of debt, leverage and speculation.
But something changed around 2009. Expanding debt and leverage no longer boosted wages. For the first time in 30 years, juicing debt and leverage did not push wages higher--rather, wages declined or stagnated, despite trillions of dollars of Fed stimulus, near-zero interest rates and all the other tricks of financialization.
The returns on additional debt and leverage have diminished to near-zero. This is the endgame of financialization: expanding debt and leverage no longer move the needle on wages and household income. Rather, adding more debt is weighing on wages.
After 30 years of success, the endgame is finally here. We are witnessing a profound secular sea-change: the failure of expanding debt and leverage to lift the real economy of wages and household income.
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long overdue.
It's not a bug, it's a feature. And it's working exactly as intended.
Loading six rounds then playing russian roulette is one hell of a feature.....
"The One Chart You Need To Predict The Future"
That's an easy one. In the future every single one of us will die. Every one. All of us. Everybody. The future is predictable.
Yep, but when and how can be a bit interesting....
Given a long enough timeline, the mortality rate for all of us goes to zero, although that is not the point... The point is the pain that is going to be felt in every aspect of our lives when the world's economies grind to a halt...
Hang on! If this chart really is showing debt/wages then the downward slope at the end means that wages are rising faster than debt, not the other way round!
"Parasitization" is so much more an appropriate word.
I get all that... but what does the squiggly line mean?
There is a point at which the helium filled balloon rises so fast that you can push on the string and it appears that you are pushing the balloon up. Only a fool and an economist believes that this is whats happening.
Expanding debt never did anything positive for the real economy except add the concept of expanding debt to the plus side of the ledger.
Speaking of helium filled stuff ..
I did a couple of projects for downstream fixed income shops. My understanding has been that yield is a function of interest income offered by the [annualized] coupon rate and the markdown/markup of the premium or discount the face principal was purchased at.
Yet, all I see on the tube are yield prints. Can anyone tell me how a central bank auctions bonds? My assumption is that they are sold as zero coupon, like the old retail buy and hold "E" class treasuries. Pay 60$ for 100$ face and receive a return of 40$, 10 or so years after purchasing when the note matures.
A negative yield implies the asset was purchased at a high premium such that the total coupon income will never be able to make up for it. Never seen and inverse flaoater or even a COFI+floating rate sovereign note, IOW, it appears the debt was purchased knowing it could never be redeemed for the price paid, much less at a profit. It was a loss from the gitgo.
If that's the case, why is anyone claiming to be an investor buying that shit?
What are the CBs selling, does it include coupons, and how is a "negative" rate calculated.That's the part of this whole process I'm least looking forward to.
Wooo lets see if we can breach the 17900 on Dow again... Cmon boys together FAZ FAZ FAZ!
But the real carnage with start sept/oct... FAZ $350 by end of year.
Wooooooooo WE DID IT!
careful of march 20 ! although I dont know why.
except Jesus
My advice is, keep voting america, it has worked out sooo well so far.
Taking your sarcasm aside, you make a false argument, if you're suggesting that voting does not work.
The argument is not whether 'voting' per se does or does not work, but whether "voting alone" is the only thing that's needed for things to work. For things to work (in a business, club, team or country), clearly all the things that precede "the vote" have to be right.
You and your sarcasm-loving voting pals may want to read up on DELUSIONAL LOGIC. In fact, I'd recommend it to all the ZH readers (and especially its bloggers).
http://www.fallacyfiles.org/index.htmlhttp://www.fallacyfiles.org/index....
It's THE best link you'll see in any ZH article today, as it will serve you well day after day after day, if you study up on it, and practice it. You too can then call out "Bullshit!" with confidence, because it will be based on something more than a "gut feeling", ingrained habits or pre-programmed notions of a sub-culture.
The spirit of the late Mr. Spock approves this message. ;-)
Linky no worky...
^
What he said.
"It's THE best link you'll see"
ah, no, the worst, because it doesn't work
You should look up "irony". It's ironic that you belive voting works, but you call other people delusional.
You could use an automatic pistol, with just one round.
You could use an automatic pistol, with just one round.
Link to mess with this chart:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&recession_ba...
I don't know how to save the finished chart above so:
You have to go into the "Edit Data Series" tab then click on "Create Your Own Data Transformation" and enter "a/b" in "Formula" and click on "Apply"
so..for tyler, stagflation and boom tech are the same.... ok...
QE1 Started in late 2008....
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=13aL
Click on share tab. Select twitter. New tab will pop up. Copy link only unless you want all the #fed crap on the end.
And, this inflection point we reached is creating over capacity and deflation. Anyone with a viable business plan can get a loan and create competing products and services driving down prices -- money has never been easier to get. The scary part is that central bankers think they've entered nirvana -- they can mushroom their balance sheets and not cause inflation. So, we are certainly heading for a cataclysmic financial event as central bankers continue down their merry path. I say it may take another 15 years for it all to blow up -- but it will happen.
15 years?!?! you and them must be dreaming... The negative events are accelerating, once you are on this path deceleration is a bitch… every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it…
You ahve that right, the BDI is screaming HELP! Worldwide crash is here.
Gambit - I am with you on this one. 2020 latest and what will happen is debt restructuring (soft default) with haircuts on bondholders. That will further delay CAPEX into R&D, productive ventures. People especially in the West are PISSED. 15 more years or this and cities will be burning. Politicians want to remain in power not be exiled by military coups.
You may want to check this out, I think it is coming sooner than we think http://usawatchdog.com/time-to-tell-these-crooks-theyre-fired-karen-hudes/
Our only hope will be a severe military coup.
And the guilty ones on the gallows televised
in prime time.
Long term on the fib charts I look at, since mid 2012 gold has been in an extended accumulation phase at support. Clearly, it's not just ZHers who are stacking. Whenever it takes off toward its initial target of $2250, it will probably mean TS has HTF. Meanwhile the dollar has hit resistance with a target that would cut its value in half. And just this week the SPX hit a target traceable to moves that started during GD 1.0, after which, technically, a substantial retracement is due.
That said, no chart can predict the future, nor can the confluence of several charts. Gold could stay in an accumulation phase indefinitely. The Fed could flip out and decide to light Krugman's hair on fire by supporting the dollar. On that long a time frame, the SPX could fart around and not double top until five years from now, it could even break through.
"History grinds slow but it grinds fine," so the saying goes. Personally, I think we're in an extended Indian Summer after the housing bust signaled the outbreak of a Winter, the depth of which still lies ahead. But if it turns out that we were full of crap, and Spring breaks out instead, that's okay too. Either way, it's always better to "make hay while the sun shines."
Love your avatar, headbanger. As Bill
Clinton would say "We feel your pain"
Debt is not a problem at all. It is a problem for the people who issue it.
Upon realizing this; preserve your wealth (i.e. gold).
Take out all the debt you want ... tripple mortgage the house, car, max cards and go buy gold cause your debt is not your problem it is the issuers.
Here is the plan:
1. get job (hah easier said than done);
2. Buy house
3. dont marry or have kids yet
4. mortgage the shit out of your "assets"
5. Buy said gold ... lose said gold in boating accident
6. go bankrupt ... rince and repeat .. cause they will lend you MORE DEBT!
Hey, you stole my plan.
Thats OK. Nows the time to spread the word.
Actually, you don't even have to file for bankruptcy. Go "insolvent" instead. Everything resets anyway... just settle (20 cents on dollar or so) if any judgments get won against you.
No way I want to settle where they give me more money (i.e. Debt).
Negative Settlement Rate (NSR).
From NIRPs are us ...
Ok so more money in the system in the form of debt does little or nothing to spur economic growth....we know that. Now what? Raise interest rates and collapse the leveraged entities and let it cascade to the debt holders , burn it down and start over? Or just print the paper and let it dissolve the economy slowly until we drown in a flooded sea of liquidity with no firm ground to stand upon. Sounds kind Biblical. I would like an articlle,that extrapolates on how this progresses based upon the options available, for those with any influence on the system. Where are the life boats?
If only the USSA could do what Zimbabwe did, have another money to fall back on, Hmmm let the US $ sink to the bottom of the lake, and let real money come to life "GOLD".
You might want to replace gold as guuns and ammo, or just ammo. THEN you have a "killer" plan.
BULLISH!
I may be a little old fashion, but two wrongs don't make a right. Not to mention, what one puts out eventually comes back...that's timeless.
NO. The market will always go up. NO RISK.
sarc///
1971 again as the turning point.
Pretty telling how often early 70's show up as the start of the hockey stick curve in many charts.
What happened in the early '70s? <sarcasm>
Nixon's the One!
That's what happened.
Of course Nixon's the one who closed the gold-window, but he couldn't stop the drunken-sailor spending of Johnson's War on Poverty, The Great Society, and the Guns and Butter policy of Vietnam spending and welfare at home. All of that borrowing/spending devalued the dollar, which is why the French and others went for the gold. The alternative was to get rid of all of that spending, something no politician is going to TRY to do.
I blame Nixon more for creating the EPA -now there's true evil.
I blame the damn French! Why the nerve of them sensing that the dollar was becoming worth less and less and therefore turning them into gold !!!
The nerve I say !!!
C'est vrai! (LOL)
Nixon was recruited/raised to power by the Brown Brothers Harriman Cabal. I don't think he had a problem continuing Johnson's Legacy of sending vast sums of public money his Murderous Masters' way, debasing the currency, and debauching the Remains of the Republic in order to do it.
About the EPA: hey, what could make an oligarchy happier than a new lever of political control? And so "Earth-friendly" too. Delusional Do-Gooderers luvvv Earth-friendly packaging.
Once in a while I have the chance to tell a lib (libs despise Nixon, of course) that he, Nixon, created the EPA. You can almost see their minds moving back and forth between hatred and adoration until their heads nearly explode in confusion.
Not to worry, it's only TEMPORARY!
Nixon announcement
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRzr1QU6K1o
No downvote from me HB
And no gold standard.
If, as was the case before the advent of fiat currency, a banker went into the vault, came out with a bag of gold or silver coins, plunked it on the table and said “ There you go - bring it all back within twelve months, plus an extra coin for every twenty in the bag” then that would be a legitimate loan and nobody could question its authenticity.
Even bank notes backed by gold, as they all were 150 years ago, clearly represented gold already owned by the banker and therefore are truly a case of the banker loaning something of genuine intrinsic value.
However, when they simply write the amount on a piece of paper and have you sign a contract to pay them back the whole sum plus interest, that is a different kettle of fish.
How can they 'loan' money which they never owned in the first place? What is the moral imperative to pay interest on something which was created by the stroke of a pen? Or even pay back the principal sum for that matter?
If you don't pay it back, has the banker actually lost anything?
The whole concept of fractional reserve banking and fiat currency is based upon fraud and deceit. All banks (from the IMF to your main street bank) are operating under a set of rules which allow them to perform acts which would be criminal felonies if perpetrated by any one of us.
We need a revolution. One in which the banksters are identified as the real terrorists and have their evil empire destroyed. Passing the 'Audit the Fed' bill presently in the Senate would be a great first step.
You can't run from the truth, because the truth is all there is. Gold and silver are money. FRNs are bullshit. The truth of this will come to light. It is inevitable. We don't need to fight it anymore than we need to fight to have the sun rise in the morning. It will happen despite what any of us do.
Buy gold and silver as insurance for when the inevitable happens. Enjoy your life.
That would be assurance, not insurance.Just as a whole life policy is assurance, not insurance.
You are assured that you will die, its just a matter of when it pays out.
Not being a grammar nazi, but words mean things.
I did not realize that finer point. Thanks!
Thomas Jefferson warned us, Andrew Jackson stopped the second "Bank of the US" (i.e., the "Fed" before the "Fed"), and less than 100 years later W. Wilson (the evil) signed off on the Federal Reserve Act forcing "We the People" into servitude. It was forewarned, now I fear it's too late.
Actually, even though a bank conjures deposits "out of thin air", if the borrower buys something with it, and then fails to repay, the answer is emphatically: yes, the banker has actually lost the amount which the borrower failed to repay.
Creating $10,000 (as a deposit) doesn't appear to cost the banker anything, but it legally binds the banker to give FRNs to the borrower on demand. If the borrower spends the money, (as he presumably will, otherwise why would he take out the loan?), the bank either has to give up some FRNs (or equivalent), or has to transfer the deposit to another customer i.e. it is legally bound to transfer FRNs to the new depositor on demand. Either way, the bank is down by $10,000 in FRNs - either now or in future.
If the borrower fails to repay, $10,000 which was previously owed to shareholders is now gone or owed to the depositor.
It took me a long time to understand this, and there is plenty of misinformation out there. The key is to look at balance sheets. If I may be so bold as to recommend something I blogged on this at wheatonomics.blogspot.com a few years ago, I hope it'll be clearer. You won't need to search back through reams of blog entries - that topic is all I wrote about there.
Note to self: write some more stuff on my blog
Yup.
Somebody's on the hook.
The taxpayer, because the bank will fob the loss onto the public one way or another.
Banks never lose in the modern system of finance/ govt. partnership.
Yes - you're right. That was what happened in 2008, with the governments and central banks claiming that they had to give our money to banks otherwise we would have been worse off.
My point is that the problem is not the fractional reserve banking system - it's that the system is being abused by people in positions of financial and political power. Changing the system without changing the abuse will simply lead to a different form of abuse.
Hey Striped Pad, riddle me this: With a bank leveraged 35:1, who got the "real" money... the person who took out the FIRST loan? Or the person who took out the THIRTY-FIFTH loan? Because they sure didn't ALL get "real" money.
Of course it came out of thin air you troll.
What? I was just about ready to borrow my way out of debt...
/sarc
Jim Morrison died in 1971. It's all been downhill ever since.
Or did he?
No, he is alive and well. Morrison, Hendrix, Entwistle and Bonham formed a band and are going on tour next month!
This is the end. Beautiful friend, the end.
Bitchin' But, will they play Stairway to Heaven?
While 1971 is important, don't make it a crutch. Think of all those policy makers and even yourself, the 70's was a dramatic event. Don't be so focused on it because what will happen in the future will be different.
1971, Isn't that the year Tiger "Bretton" Woods was clubbed to death with a solid gold 9 iron?
Supernova Born: "1971 again as the turning point."
The truth in your comment aside, I'd say "Bring back the 70s, 80s and 90s!". Those were the "Good Old Days"
It's the 2000s that forked us up. 2000-2015 has been a complete DISASTER in the US. E.g.:
- The repeal of Glass-Stegall Act
- War after war after war (first direct, then via proxies and NGOs)
- TPBF (Socialism for Billionaires and Millionaires)
- TBTJ (Might makes right)
- QE (Money for Nothing and Checks for Free)
- Slide to Fascism (militarization of the police and LEAs)
- Legalized decimation of our national and community social norms (LGTB)
- Immigration policies and practices
...
Just BTFATH bitchez
TFATH? that might be a lost chance---already happened? just maybe? --we'll see I guess-- however passed performance doesn't prove the future --just saying
I don't know why you got junked so bad. BTFATH and BTFD are going to be the only strategy in town until they suddenly quit working. I personally wouldn't touch the markets because I'm not an insider, and that "until they quit working" part is going to be a real bitch, but if you're going to play, that's the way to go.
And, then there were the Hunt brothers. So glad my broker talked me into buying a pant load 'o silver options right before they ate my lunch...
An exerpt:
When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.
"...all men are created equal....."
Except, of course black people.
The US was a sham even before it started.
As opposed to ... where?
As opposed to fvk you biatch, the great AmeriKA was supposed to be an exemplary to the rest of the world remember? But o fvk no we became corrupted to the point now we are the Nazis. Truly pathetic and we don't need the bullshit that we are not as bad as ______. YES WE ARE, in fact we are worse. 30 million dead from US aggression since ww2. so fvk you too.
You know, spelling 'fuck' out as 'fvk' doesn't make it more polite or change the meaning.
oh ok how about eff you? of flipoff? How about >I am sorry, but I have to politely disagree? P C fvk! Go walk in your rose garden and leave the fighting to us adults.
Educate yourself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MG_TNYTHN5E
Gee thanks, I am sure you mean well tho.
"You know, spelling 'fuck' out as 'fvk' doesn't make it more polite or change the meaning."
No, but it keeps Zero Hedge from deleting your post.
I'm not shy about using the word fuck. At all. The only post of mine that I know that was deleted was when I responded to one of those "I made $10 billion dollars in my basement jacking off in front of a webcam" spam posts.
I use fuck and shit on here all the time and haven't had any posts deleted (yet).
But - use those words in combination with certain cheesepope words and all bets are off.
"You know, spelling 'fuck' out as 'fvk' doesn't make it more polite or change the meaning."
No, but it keeps Zero Hedge from deleting your post.
Those people would have died anyway.
Eventually.
No need to be rude.
Yes, I am so sorry. Will you all forgive me.. I just ran out of the"be nice" pills the doc prescribes me so i am a bit touchy. As soon as I can afford to get to the drugs r us store and buy another batch, I must apologize for my violent outbursts. Would you all on this board be so kind as to help out a fellow 0hedger and send your tax deductible donations to the cause? You can log on to my blog and hit the donate button @ fvkoffanddieyoulowlifefvk.blogfvkudotfvkincomassholes.
Thank you in advance..
Iceland
Bhutan
Well, you ceratinly won't fix rascism with racist policies moron.
FYI- many of us came here from other countries and have done very well you stupid fuck.
Please inform me of any country in the world from the past 250+ years that was NOT involved in slavery in one form or another. Also, please let me know what countries are now active in the slave trade TO THIS DAY that still exists, if you can.
The US has proven to be the very best thing that has happened to BILLIONS of individuals who have lived and are living on this planet, who enjoy a better life existence because of the Founding Fathers. Are we perfect? FAR FROM IT. Are we better than most? Most assuredly.
I think you should have asked "were we better than most." This country is an empty shell of what it once was.
When this country was founded, blacks owned black slaves and had voting rights. So your statement makes no sense. Within 10 years of ratifying the constitution, the federal congress made the owning of slaves illegal in federal territories. They also made the exporting slaves to other states illegal. They knew what they were doing. The "all men are created equal" phrase was not a pompus self righteous hypocritical statement, it was a subtle head's up to everybody that slavery was going to have to end. Even the slave owning founders knew it. (but remember, it existed for over a hundred years in the colonies before the founding fathers were even born). But they needed all of the colonies to sign off on the constitution. So they basically lied to the slave colonies saying they would protect their status. Where they failed was in thinking they could eliminate it through legislation once the south signed onto the plan. But the south was never going to give it up without a war.
It wasn't until after most of founders had died off that the southern democrats began regaining much of their lost ground with regards to slavery and in fact developed imagry (progaganda really) to paint blacks, in general, as dumb and dirty. It was that imagry that defined blacks in many people's eyes for generations.
The idea behind the founding of this nation was the greatest idea in the history of man. But as always, man's greed, ignorance and inflated idea of self importance destroyed it.
So many people today think they are so enlightened and that the founding fathers were a bunch of ignorant redneck racists. Those who think that way are so clueless and unaware of how ignorant they themselves are. We were so close. And few today even understand what the Spirit of '76 really was all about. It was truly designed to include all people. They just ran out of time against the real ignorant masses that always seem to make up the majority of any population... and web forums.
"Race" has always been a codeword for "culture". Race doesn't exist in genetic terms in reality, but culture damn sure does. To me, the word "racist" is meaningless, and not just because the PC movement screams it shrilly at every opportunity.
Bullshit. Tell that to a geneticist who actually knows what an SNP is. And if you don't know, get thee to a Search Engine.
Speaking broadly here... Obviously there are genetic differences for any physical attribute, but my point (albeit not very thoroughly made) was that culture seems to be a greater "hobbling" factor than DNA alone.
In my opinion, culture represents the collective behavioral outcome expressed by a genetically defined population.
When the physical attributes genetically coded involve cranial size/cortical complexity, thus affecting cognitive and behavioral outputs, one would be foolish (or merely idealistic) to expect equal collective outcomes of genetically distinct populations.
For example: Lions and Tigers can mate and produce viable offspring, yet they are not considered the same species, remain geographically isolated, and their cultures (social hierarchy vs. lone hunters) are radically different.
Appreciate the rational discussion Jethro, see you later!
The 3/5 designation for slaves in the constitution was actually a forced agreement by the Industrial Northerners that wanted to marginalize the labor intensive Southern states at the founding. It limited the apportionment of votes in Congress that they would receive. This was a compromise made during negotiations in order to build consensus to support the ultimate signing of the Constition.
There is not a mention of blacks, but instead they were referred to as "those bound to Service for a Term of Years" This was not exclusive to Blacks and fully half the European immigrants to the 13 colonies were indentured servants at one time. It was a common practice. So much that there were more White indentured servants then Black. Blacks, regrettably, had fewer, if any, oppotunities to buy their freedom.
Learn your history folks or else the parasites will twist it to their agenda of destroying the best system this world has ever seen.
Yes to your post. Then the industrial North imposed very large taxation on imported goods that the South was buying from those that they traded their agricultural goods at far better prices than the North could offer. Protectionism to the point of such greed was a far larger contributor to war than slavery. Few of the Confederate soldiers owned slaves and there was quite a lot of slavery in New York too.
When did slavery end in the North?
Blacks weren't considered 'fully human' back then, so there's no point to judging historical actors by modern standards. It would be like granting citizenship to livestock today, an idea championed by only the lunatic fringe, which were how abolitionists were viewed in the 18th century. The concept that blacks could be anything more than chattel didn't take root until the early 19th century slave revolts in the Caribbean colonies.
People are the product of their times. The idea that gays could become openly married by civil authorities in 1950's America would be laughable by the standards of that time. Is being within the cultural mores of the mainstream a mark of cruelty or ignorance? Not if homosexuality is considered to be an aberration caused by mental illness.
Your comment reflects an emotional response rather that one with an understanding of a historical perspective. I wonder if the long historical list of white slavery abuses would elicit the same emotional reaction that you have been taught to have about black slavery in particular.
I have a feeling it wouldn't.
Congratulations Modernity.
You murdered hundreds of thousands of your own relatives in a fratricidal war, destroyed the Republic, and founded an American Empire run by and for International Mercantile Financial Interests, so your descendants could enjoy spending trilions of dollars on a feral hominid population burning your major cities to the ground, set to a bitchin' rap soundtrack.
But you get to feel really enlightened about yourselves, and parade conspicuously as such, so there's that. Hope it was worth it.
Now that's funny! True as well. tks
And the three fifths compromise was actually designed to hurt blacks right.. Get some real history prog.. No nation is ever lily clean and that makes all civilization unclean does it? Rope for you first friend..
Always someone around to make a racial issue out of something... nice.
oudinot: "...all men are created equal....."
That might be true to a degree*, but they don't REMAIN equal... as they grow and mature.
* Mother Nature will tell you that the health and IQ potential will vary from infant to infant -- depending on the child's DNA and the prenatal care it received in its mother's womb, before it was even born. You add to that the quality of the Egg and the Sperm, you have to face the fact that even at the moment of Conception 90% of the future child's potential is set. For example, eggs from a 40 y.o. female are of far lower DNA quality than the same female at 20.
Add to that the human care it then gets (Neonatal care, Infant care and Child care, the home environment), and the Differentiation of human potential has been further compromised. Not just by race, culture or class, but by the parents themselves.
This business of "...all men are created equal....." sure sounds real good when you're a philosopher/politician, as long as you don't think about it too much, or dig much deeper.
I thought Id post this here because according to the chart above, the next step is wholesale confiscation from the masses at the point of a gun, implemented by your friendly neighborhood statists with no say-so from you. I suggest we all contact or representatives. It might be useful to find out where they are first. It seems mine is never, ever, in his office. Just where do these people get off suggesting that they represent us?
They don't even read the Bills they are passing. If a attorney advised you to enter into a contract without reading first he would be disbarred. But for some reason it is ok for them to do this? If a bill is given for review at 12am and the vote is at 10am and it is 800+ pages long you vote NO! no matter what it is for. But that is not what happens now is it.
Except they're not entering into a contract when they vote for those bills. They're entering us into a contract.
Not a problem when you have a universal 'hold harmless' clause built in to everything you sign.
Lawyers being lawyers and all.
Duplicate
From the Articles of Confederation:
"the free inhabitants of each of these States, paupers, vagabonds, and fugitives from justice excepted, shall be entitled to all privileges and immunities of free citizens in the several States"
In 1933 the took our gold. In 1965 they took our silver. You are now 'excepted'.
Well, good luck with that...
Yes, The Articles held the states and citizens sovereign above the national government, hence the constitution. The entire reason for the constitution was to have a more powerful central government. They said this, not me. Well they got far more than they wished for,,,,,,,,
The unCivil War was the end of states rights. The Federal takeover of state militias removed the Constitution's enforcement arm,,, the 17th amendment eliminated state suffrage and the 16th made slaves of all citizens henceforth to be called civilians.
Finally the Federal Reserve stole the country's money with their fiat currency. In 1934 the first national gun control act. In 1965 they eliminated silver backing and in 1971 gold bit the dust. In the 1980's middle class jobs were offshored to China. In the 1990's illegal's flooded the nation. September 11, 2001 ended any semblance of Constitutional governance and gave birth to the Police State.
There is very little left of America. What hasn't been outright killed is in massive decay. Soon the disintegration will begin. Even at that stage I doubt many will care.We'll still be squabbling over more important race and gender issues.
I have a neighbor that sent his son of to the Army even after the dozens and dozens of hours of common dialogue on the topic. I saw the desperation in his face...his son, 21 yrs old with no job and a college degree and debt, ENLISTS in the army as a grunt. Becoming an officer these days is seriously not easy with all the LGBT/chick/minority officer mustangs and recruitment campaigns. A white guy with a degree in history...that used to be a sound start for a 2nd lieutenant in an infantry role... now relegates you to an infantryman, E-1 or E-2.
My neighbor felt this was all he could do for a jobless son...give him a handshake and wish him well.
Give me five loyal neighbors. Just five. A band of brothers.
King Dollar going "godzilla thru tokyo" ... again
DXY 97.5
back in october FOMC minutes expressed worry about dollar strength (before they decided it was good) ... DXY ~ 85
corporate guidance this year will be VERY interesting (as earnings and capex take beatings)
SO, the tripling of the stock market makes sense since the 2009 lows, right?
When that graph turns down for 30 years...that will be a problem....and I think it will
I've often wondered why economists don't seem to use any biological population and cultural models in their assessments. Natural systems depopulate when their environment can no longer support them. Likewise, the cultural trend is for a decreasing population in post-industrial countries. To assume that there will continue to be unimpeded growth in these conditions is just plain stupid. The Federal Reserve Bank--Exhibit A
>the cultural trend is for a decreasing population in post-industrial countries.
the number of bankers and lawyers increases (predators), which in turn leads to a die-off in the rest of society (prey)... lather, collapse, repeat
The parasite-host model common to biology fits. As does Oncological Disease Progression.
Economists won't use such models because they and their University Departments are paid by the Cancer. The End.
a great talk on the subject
topdocumentaryfilms.com/arithmetic-population-and-energy-lecture/
The next king of the hill will be the person who understands how to goose an economy without money being a factor.
I dunno, but I bet it involves more government.
I hope everybody is wearing a helmet....
and a full body condom, cus' the Shit is really going to HTF.
Funny How fast the Water reaches, the Top Stadium Seat....
"But something changed around 2009. Expanding debt and leverage no longer boosted wages."
How about the globalization of wages?
Where more and more cheaper H1Bs are replacing higher paid US employees?
The average daily global wage is much lower than what Americans get.
A race to the bottom.
Its also the year a socialist community organizer became POTUS.
"the failure of expanding debt and leverage to lift the real economy of wages and household income"
One trick pony is all tired out.
Credit cards. Tech stocks. Housing sub prime. College loans. Auto sub prime. Next ????????
If decoupling the dollar from gold worked so well these last forty years or so, maybe we just need to decouple the dollar from, uh,,,the dollar?
Financialization is monetary masturbation.
Are you saying that we;ve already climaxed?
Asset Stripping. When it is no longer profitable to shear the sheep, you skin them. Following that, you liquidate the herd. So long as your ability to create and extend credit is unaffected by the conflagration, the ground is cleared to restart the Cycle. Early Investors draw the biggest returns.
Look, when their Holy Book describes the rest of us as livestock, they weren't joking.
Especially run up bills on the joint's credit. And why not? Nobody's gonna pay for it anyway. And as soon as the deliveries are made in the front door, you move the stuff out the back and sell it at a discount. You take a two hundred dollar case of booze and you sell it for a hundred. It doesn't matter. It's all profit. And then finally, when there's nothing left, when you can't borrow another buck from the bank or buy another case of booze, you bust the joint out. You light a match.
There are two sides to a coin, and the bright side of this one is the lesson in finance the average person is going to learn with almost no effort on his part. The huge runup in debt with its subsequent transfer to the public sector will become the business of the average person when the cascade of defaults occur. Should make a lasting impression.
From the BLS release this morning:
"Since 2010, productivity has increased at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent"
show me the smolderin' ruins.
That chart resembles another chart for plastics (and the related lack of recycling) as shown at this website: http://www.mindfully.org/Plastic/Recycling/Plastic-Not-Fantastic1nov03.htm
wwxx
Just do not seem to get this Chart. Debt/Wages, so...when Debt is rising faster than wages line increases, slope is steeper...but when Debt growth slows relative to wages, wages growing faster than Debt, line will fall. Line has peaked and is falling so Wages are growing faster than Debt?
Going to email author.
Yeah, I just came to the same conclusion. I like Charles, but he is better at chart making.
still Liabilities are still growing exponentially or at least at Steady, Strong Growth.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO
If wages are flat or decreasing that would make the chart even more of a steep incline up.
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http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/A132RC1 (Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements: Private Industries, Steady, Steep Incline up, from 2009)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LES1252881600Q (Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over, Fell from 2009, now flat at lower level since 2012)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/A576RC1Q027SBEA (Compensation of employees: Wages and salaries, Steep, Steady incline trend higher)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/B1661C1A027NBEA (National income: Households: Compensation of employees: Wage and salary accruals, Flat Trend after 2009)
I agree - I just posted the same conclusion below, but then noticed your earlier response saying the same thing.
Kind of sad I had to go to page two of the comments to see some others with the same concern.
This chart does not support the authors conclusion. It actually shows the opposite. Wages are either growing faster than debt or are falling more slowly then debt.
Communism is as Communism does.
BTW, what does "secular" have to do with anything, in the context of this text?
d00d.. come on man
communism has been exposed as a symptom, not the root cause.
the root cause is monoploization. simle evolution of human greed.
w va coal mines. but global, without actual mines, the banksters have financialized een that
P < P + I