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Causation Or Correlation? How The Fed Killed All The Bears

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Mission Accomplished?

 

 

Source: @Not_Jim_Cramer

 

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Sun, 03/08/2015 - 18:49 | 5867883 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Did the Fed have a hunting license?

Did the Fed use a registered firearm?

 

 

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 18:50 | 5867887 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

There's still a few bears left. Time for QE4 and the Fed's scorched Earth monetary policy.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 18:51 | 5867890 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Ilook forward to the point of a negative bear percentage.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:07 | 5867922 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated.

Not dead.  Ornery, grouchy, slow to wake up after hibernation...yes.

Put spreads are fer cheap;)

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:16 | 5867936 Self-enslavement
Self-enslavement's picture

Liar.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 21:57 | 5868280 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

kaiserhoff is dead?

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 20:02 | 5868015 richiebaby
richiebaby's picture

That's right. I'm a bear and I still have $10k left to throw against the Fed

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 21:18 | 5868188 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

I admit to still being short a lot of stocks from 2012 when I thought Europe was gonna go bust.  The paper losses have piled up, but I see no point in throwing in the towel now.  

If there is any semblance of a real stock market left, I figure with 6+ years of above average returns should lead to a few years of below average performance so I'll just keep waiting.  I may never be right.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 20:05 | 5868018 richiebaby
richiebaby's picture

...

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 20:18 | 5868048 BandGap
BandGap's picture

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcsXC2xFis4

Best bear killer ever. He hunts grizz

 

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 18:50 | 5867888 schadenfreude
schadenfreude's picture

One point in time math succeeds over artifical pumping.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 18:57 | 5867895 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

Nature seeks a golden ratio, equilibrium....the FED killed it for now, but not for long.........Nature abhors a vacuum

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:01 | 5867901 The_Dead_Bear
The_Dead_Bear's picture

 

 

 

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:23 | 5867947 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Enjoy your moment in the sun, my friend.  The day a Keltner Channel or surfing article gets posted, I'm buying a fucking block of Powerball tickets.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:37 | 5867969 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

Your silence speaks volume.  Well played!

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 18:59 | 5867902 The_Dead_Bear
The_Dead_Bear's picture

I can confirm that they killed me...

That's why I hate them so much. I want to see them dead. I want to see them terrified...

I am also angry after Zerohedge that keeps explaining us that this time the Fed and the Bulls are in a corner... Yet, they always manage to escape. 

See today for example, the so called US Dollar shortage. 

I am sure the fuckers will find a way. Kick the can is an art, when practiced at this level...

I hate them. 

Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen : they even created a certain type of antisemitism in me...

 

 

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 02:11 | 5868615 walküre
walküre's picture

If you're truly dead, then this is my signal to start shorting in ernest.

The FED is set to increase rates in June. They're fighting for USD reserve currency status survival against the RMB. It's not so much about their bullshit fundamentals which have supposedly improved. We all know that is not true. The truth is that their hand is being forced. The USD is a well sought after commodity when every other currency seems to collapse (cleanest shirt in the dirty hamper). Shifting billions of European or North and South American wealth into RMB isn't an option yet. USD is strong because of the flight into USD and the promise of a higher yield eventually. Truth is, even with 18 trillion in debt the FED can afford to raise rates as the demand for USD paper increases. All things being equal, who wouldn't trust the FED with their wealth.

When that happens, the stockbuybacks will slow down or stop completely. The market then looking for anyone with a pulse to buy the highly overvalued corporate papers will inevitably go down.

But then again, maybe you're not really dead yet....

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 18:59 | 5867903 The_Dead_Bear
The_Dead_Bear's picture

I can confirm that they killed me...

That's why I hate them so much. I want to see them dead. I want to see them terrified...

I am also angry after Zerohedge that keeps explaining us that this time the Fed and the Bulls are in a corner... Yet, they always manage to escape. 

See today for example, the so called US Dollar shortage. 

I am sure the fuckers will find a way. Kick the can is an art, when practiced at this level...

I hate them. 

Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen : they even created a certain type of antisemitism in me...

 

 

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 18:59 | 5867904 The_Dead_Bear
The_Dead_Bear's picture

I can confirm that they killed me...

That's why I hate them so much. I want to see them dead. I want to see them terrified...

I am also angry after Zerohedge that keeps explaining us that this time the Fed and the Bulls are in a corner... Yet, they always manage to escape. 

See today for example, the so called US Dollar shortage. 

I am sure the fuckers will find a way. Kick the can is an art, when practiced at this level...

I hate them. 

Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen : they even created a certain type of antisemitism in me...

 

 

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:10 | 5867927 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

The killed some people, we got it...

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:18 | 5867940 Self-enslavement
Self-enslavement's picture

They've killed a few million and fully intend on killing millions more.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:46 | 5867985 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

This isn't the 1960's anymore Dr. Evil. We use "billions" now not millions.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:39 | 5867973 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

Boy, once you gett this guy talking... I liked the silent dead bear better, I think.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 20:49 | 5868104 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

"He's alive, Jim"

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:11 | 5867910 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

In this case, while some may say correlation equals vituperation, it’s hard to comprehend how the Fed could hate creatures that are cute, cuddly, fuzzy, keep CHI football fans out of the playoffs, prevent forest fires and are dropping like the Fed’s sworn enemy, US Macro (?) 

Instead, are we seeing nascent signs of correlation equals crustacean – bears as barnacles, about to be encrusted on the Fed’s behind, taking markets further south on the data-dependent express than Bullard’s bull can rescue?  Will be interesting to see the post-FOMC reaction in two weeks after “patient” is replaced by “exhausted.”

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:36 | 5867965 NoVa
NoVa's picture

where do you channel surf?  

I've surfed since I was 12 yr old - or about 40 years

 

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 20:39 | 5867991 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Sounds like fun. We're exactly the same age but, alas, I never learned swim.  The handle is a pun on TV channel 'surf' vs. water surfing via Keltner volatility envelopes vs. trading 'serf', etc. 

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 22:31 | 5868355 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Who are you, who Is so Wise to the ways of science? Excellent wordplay! Bravo!

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 00:19 | 5868510 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Thanks, but despite wordsmithing attempts, it seems a dead bear got 13X the number of upvotes, which is precisely why Kafka wrote at night, but kept working at that insurance company during the day  :)

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:03 | 5867914 Racer
Racer's picture

A casino house that prints its own money ad infinitum....

v

Bears

Uh,...

 

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:06 | 5867920 The Econ Ideal
The Econ Ideal's picture

Forever bearish.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:14 | 5867933 booboo
booboo's picture

In the end it won't matter anyways, they will void all (non tribal) trades regardless when the casino burns down, it will be a "matter of National Security". You think I'm kidding?

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 20:21 | 5868053 BandGap
BandGap's picture

No, you are not kidding.

Good a chance as any for the final washout.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 00:24 | 5868515 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

i had to explain the tribe to a young man today.  relatively bright.   still young enough to 'serve'.  serves him right to be so stupid.

 

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:19 | 5867942 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Bears are expensive

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:20 | 5867944 Self-enslavement
Self-enslavement's picture

Fuck National Security. It's Homeland Security that will kill us all.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:45 | 5867984 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture
 

 Don't fret.  The Calvary is on its way.

"Obama is trying to expand progressive control by attaching more conditions to federal funding of state and local law-enforcement efforts. “We can expand the [federally-funded] COPS program… to see if we can get more incentives for local communities to apply some of the best practices and lessons that are embodied in this report,” he said."

" Obama’s strategy matches the progressive playbook, which continuously expands progressives’ power by gradually adding more conditions to federal aid. That same strategy is implemented in education via the “Common Core” education plan, in the health-sector via Obamacare, in the banking industry via the mortgage rules that caused the damaging property bubble and in housing via Obama’s “regionalism” plan. "

 

http://dailycaller.com/2015/03/02/obama-unveils-national-obamalaw-plan/

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:55 | 5868000 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

an absolute end run around the constitution's state's rights. As long as the government is the only one that can fund through debt they will take the Alinsky path to hell. Entitlement mandates in a bankrupt society totally dependent on debt by a single hand...tyranny.

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 19:36 | 5867964 Lokking4AnEdge
Lokking4AnEdge's picture

You can go over 100% bullish consensus if the bulls are on margin..............

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 20:21 | 5868052 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"Time for QE4 and the Fed's scorched Earth monetary policy."

QE 4 later this year. Bigger than ever before. It will make Krugman smile. Like his does when he passes gas bombs or dumps a a large one while on the toilet admiring his economics papers.


Sun, 03/08/2015 - 20:21 | 5868054 mt paul
mt paul's picture

didn't get this bear

 

long seals

short the rest

Sun, 03/08/2015 - 22:09 | 5868308 venturen
venturen's picture

I am still out in the woods....doing something.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 01:10 | 5868560 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Of course the bears are dead; who would be stupid enough to short the market when the FED has publicly stated many many times in no uncertain terms that their sole purpose is to take prices higher into perpetuity.  

Seriously now, the shareholders of the FED are balls to the wall long.  US.gov who on paper controls the FED is balls to the wall long.  

The entire financial system is predicated on rising prices and every body that has any influence on anything is working to make asset prices increase.  From a straight mathematical perspective, either asset prices increase or the whole system goes to zero.

 

The only reason to sell the S&P would be to buy moar NASDAQ cause while the S&P has some companies which require actual demand and the production of physical products with intrinsic value the NQ is mostly speculative tech things which need no more than the promise of free money and chance of potentially being profitable in your lifetime to surge well past a billion dollars in market cap.  

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 18:31 | 5871208 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

Let me try and count the number of times statements like these have been made near all market bubble tops. Have the central banks truly discovered the fountain of youth, where there are never any more consequences for un-natural acts of financial engineering? When again in history was this ever been successful in the long term? Oh yeah, never. Yes it could go on longer, and yes no one should be trying to short this thing. But, it doesn't mean anyone should be plowing new money in at this point. The market trajectory and been leveling off for a while now. As we know, markets never sit still. So, it will either take off again, or start to roll over. I think the rubber band is stretched nearer it's breaking point than ready to rocket off further into the stratosphere. We'll see.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 03:21 | 5868666 farmboy
farmboy's picture

I am a mouse but will bite the FED in the ass.

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