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Real-Time Q1 GDP Update : 1.2%
Last week, first Goldman and then JPMorgan cut their GDP forecasts, in the case of the latter by 0.5% to 2.0% from 2.5%. The JPM report cited the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model we first exposed earlier last week. And unfortunately for the Wall Street consensus, which is still hoping for some dramatic surge in US "growth" in the 3 remaining weeks of the first quarter, things are looking bad, because according to the most recent update to the Atlanta Fed model which mimics the methodology used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth and which will be revealed in less than 2 months when the preliminary Q1 GDP number is revealed, the economy in the first quarter is tracking at just 1.2%, smashing any recent momentum, and the lowest since the Polar Vortex. "Here we go again" indeed.
Here is the latest from thbe Atlanta Fed, whose revised GDP forecast has not budged from a week ago.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 1.2 percent on March 6, unchanged from its March 2 reading. The nowcast for the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.5 percentage point to -0.8 percentage point following this morning's international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was offset by increases in the nowcasts of equipment investment and inventory investment.
So about that rate hike...
Source: Atlanta Fed, and Spreadsheet Model
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What did GDPNow say on March 9, 2014?
It's the weather, we all know that. BTFD
Has anyone ever done a 'debt-adjusted' GDP breakdown? Seems to me that the fed is adding 1-2 trillion / year now with QE and I don't recall the GDP going up by nearly that much in a single year. Doesn't that imply real GDP would be negative 4-5% for several years in a row now?
Should have something like shadow stats to break this down better.
Debt adjusted GDP growth died at about the time of the Moon landing:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO
Damn, that is depressing to find out. Wonder what kind of fuckery they are going to try and pull to keep this bubble going after QE fails?
Stripper glitter might just do the trick.
Out of all the possibilities, I think that would at least be a step in the right direction. At least the new debt would be backed by something.
ASSet backed securities.
Yeah but Obamacare saved the day and it can do it again if they just force the lemmings to pay up higher contributions which will increase gdp.
I think 40% from the capitalists who still work their paycheck will do it for now. For now...
Then? We passed then.
When? Just now.
When will then be now? Soooon!
Ok, so when are bond yield going down again?
Bullish?
The gotta be Bush's fault.
Do you really think there is any piece of data that will keep the Fed from doing what it wants to do?
With the economy now firing on all cylinders, I think that it is safe for the Federal Reserve to head off inflation and make up for previous inaction by just hiking rates to 10%. NOW!! Lets just get it done and see how screaming this economy (and government debt payments) really is.
I've got enough survival supplies ready to test it out.
Reported GDP number will of course come straight from 1600 Pennsylvania lower management. Regime lawlessness demands it.
Atlanta Fed head ' retires' in 3,2,1 ...
I know that because of my new, higher tax liabilities and my Obamacare penalty- I had to come up with 6 or 7 grand. I haven't bought anything since x-mas.
I was able to deduct my medical premiums through my corporation. Guess what??? Can't do that anymore.
Meanwhile...http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2014/10/29/obamacare-brings-well...
I DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU UNPATRIOTIC SLOBS, BUT I FOR ONE AM DOING MY PART BUYING AMMO, TACTICAL EQUIPMENT AND TRAINING CLASSES...
GET OUT THERE AND SPEND!!!11111
Been there, done that. The munition depot is full, the pantry is stacked, lake full of PMs and the fireteams know the basics.
Hope the state legislatures will do the right thing and get their out-of-control agent in D.C. under control or eliminate it so that I don't have to resort to any of that.
This model is designed to be worse than expected so we can beat it.
Figure we have 1.6-1.8% GDP 1Q initial which will be revised down.
2Q should show recession.
What will the markets do when we have a recession and QE Euro and Japan is going on.
Probably ignore it because they didn't do it right like the US and welcome in QE4.
but....but.... the jobs number is so wonderful. This GDP number is clearly a mistake.
If QE4 were to be "officially" announced, then it would be game-over. So expect more of the ongoing and back-door variety. All one will need to do is look at the expansion of the FED balance sheet as it will increase by another trillion YoY.
That was GDPThen, this is GDPNow.
What is real GDP? Government Dependent Propaganda??
Only NigTards buying stocks. Gotta support the Pinko Fascist Commies (this is not racial, but ethical. That word really means "worthless human being"---and sums up those supporting the status quo)...
God says that a person who says "there is no "god" (creator)" is a fool"; literally a STUPID PERSON in the Hebrew. Why? The same reason a person driving a car would never claim there is no such thing as an automaker...since both are quite obvious.
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oNE mIGHT dEBATE wHO tHE cREATOR IS, jUST aS oNE MIGHT nOT dISTINQUISH a tOYOTA fROM a hONDA.
The local weather forecaster's work for Walmart & major grocery chains; at least in the Midwest. If you get to the store late after the hype on the "great white death" forecast; you got only beans and spam left on the shelves. Good for business I tell ya.
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What is a Climatologist? A glorified meteorologist? What is a meteorologist? One who is lucky to get the forecast correct more than 24 hours out.
So much for low oil prices being unequivocally good:
Oil, gas industry may cancel US$1T projects on price fallReuters | March 9, 2015
http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/09/oil-gas-industry-may-cancel...
excerpt:
"The steep fall in energy prices will hit investment in oil and gas projects worldwide and the industry may cancel about US$1-trillion of planned projects globally in the next couple of years, a senior Saudi Aramco executive said on Monday."
The missing part is the derivative loses, which are coming in May. Expect rising oil prices once the boots hit the ground in Syria "officially" and Iran is bombed "officially".
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Netanyahu said the low oil prices were a "tool" that help to hurt the Iranian economy...weaken your enemy before the attack. Then oil prices can resume up up and away.
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Explains why the Saudis have been so cooperative in keeping up output with back-end promises; they hate the Iranians.
That is an interesting notion, but I can't fully buy into that right now. I believe the Saudis really are out to maintain their market share at the expense of the US oil shale/fracking "miracle". I think the Saudis will keep pumping until their US competition is beaten down a notch or two.
Never forget, the good-cop & bad-cop as it is played out on the national & world stage. Back-door QE to help the most favored "frackers" & the little ones get swallowed up and the story ends happily ever after.
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Take the "Net Neutrality" law; the bad-cops were Verizon (largest cell provider) & Comcast (largest internet provider); both against the bill openly & publicly (main stream media). Therefore the law must be good, from the sheeple perspective, since the evil-corps are against it...Mission Accomplished!! Now the FCC gives "Net Preferential" treatment by controlling & taxing bandwidth. The most favored will prosper (Verizon & Comcast) at the expense of the sheeple & small companies in higher taxes, less bandwidth & more censorship...about 2-3 years before people begin to complain; assuming we make it that far. Think Affordable Health Care Act as most recent example.