This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Real-Time Q1 GDP Update : 1.2%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Last week, first Goldman and then JPMorgan cut their GDP forecasts, in the case of the latter by 0.5% to 2.0% from 2.5%. The JPM report cited the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model we first exposed earlier last week. And unfortunately for the Wall Street consensus, which is still hoping for some dramatic surge in US "growth" in the 3 remaining weeks of the first quarter, things are looking bad, because according to the most recent update to the Atlanta Fed model which mimics the methodology used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth and which will be revealed in less than 2 months when the preliminary Q1 GDP number is revealed, the economy in the first quarter is tracking at just 1.2%, smashing any recent momentum, and the lowest since the Polar Vortex. "Here we go again" indeed.

Here is the latest from thbe Atlanta Fed, whose revised GDP forecast has not budged from a week ago.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 1.2 percent on March 6, unchanged from its March 2 reading. The nowcast for the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.5 percentage point to -0.8 percentage point following this morning's international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was offset by increases in the nowcasts of equipment investment and inventory investment.

 

So about that rate hike...

Source: Atlanta Fed, and Spreadsheet Model

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 03/09/2015 - 16:30 | 5870756 Hohum
Hohum's picture

What did GDPNow say on March 9, 2014?

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 16:34 | 5870766 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

It's the weather, we all know that. BTFD

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 16:42 | 5870790 Freedom In Your...
Freedom In Your Lifetime's picture

Has anyone ever done a 'debt-adjusted' GDP breakdown? Seems to me that the fed is adding 1-2 trillion / year now with QE and I don't recall the GDP going up by nearly that much in a single year. Doesn't that imply real GDP would be negative 4-5% for several years in a row now?

Should have something like shadow stats to break this down better.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 16:47 | 5870797 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Debt adjusted GDP growth died at about the time of the Moon landing:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 16:51 | 5870808 Freedom In Your...
Freedom In Your Lifetime's picture

Damn, that is depressing to find out. Wonder what kind of fuckery they are going to try and pull to keep this bubble going after QE fails?

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 16:58 | 5870829 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Stripper glitter might just do the trick. 

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 17:07 | 5870850 Freedom In Your...
Freedom In Your Lifetime's picture

Out of all the possibilities, I think that would at least be a step in the right direction. At least the new debt would be backed by something.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 22:44 | 5871940 Mr. Bones
Mr. Bones's picture

ASSet backed securities.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 17:51 | 5871009 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yeah but Obamacare saved the day and it can do it again if they just force the lemmings to pay up higher contributions which will increase gdp.

I think 40% from the capitalists who still work their paycheck will do it for now. For now...

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 16:42 | 5870781 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

Then?  We passed then.

When?  Just now.

When will then be now?   Soooon!

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 16:33 | 5870764 katchum
katchum's picture

Ok, so when are bond yield going down again?

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 16:48 | 5870801 Dungholio
Dungholio's picture

Bullish?

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 16:49 | 5870803 B2u
B2u's picture

The gotta be Bush's fault.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 16:51 | 5870809 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Do you really think there is any piece of data that will keep the Fed from doing what it wants to do?  

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 17:08 | 5870814 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

With the economy now firing on all cylinders, I think that it is safe for the Federal Reserve to head off inflation and make up for previous inaction by just hiking rates to 10%.  NOW!!  Lets just get it done and see how screaming this economy (and government debt payments) really is.

I've got enough survival supplies ready to test it out.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 17:08 | 5870854 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Reported GDP number will of course come straight from 1600 Pennsylvania lower management. Regime lawlessness demands it.

Atlanta Fed head ' retires' in 3,2,1 ...

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 17:23 | 5870899 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I know that because of my new, higher tax liabilities and my Obamacare penalty- I had to come up with 6 or 7 grand. I haven't bought anything since x-mas.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 17:41 | 5870967 Bernanke'sDaddy
Bernanke'sDaddy's picture

I was able to deduct my medical premiums through my corporation. Guess what??? Can't do that anymore.

 

Meanwhile...http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2014/10/29/obamacare-brings-well...

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 17:39 | 5870961 Bernanke'sDaddy
Bernanke'sDaddy's picture

I DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU UNPATRIOTIC SLOBS, BUT I FOR ONE AM DOING MY PART BUYING AMMO, TACTICAL EQUIPMENT AND TRAINING CLASSES...

 

GET OUT THERE AND SPEND!!!11111

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 20:32 | 5871569 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

Been there, done that.  The munition depot is full, the pantry is stacked, lake full of PMs and the fireteams know the basics.

  Hope the state legislatures will do the right thing and get their out-of-control agent in D.C. under control or eliminate it so that I don't have to resort to any of that.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 18:21 | 5871129 fed_depression
fed_depression's picture

This model is designed to be worse than expected so we can beat it.

 

Figure we have 1.6-1.8% GDP 1Q initial which will be revised down.

 

2Q should show recession.

 

What will the markets do when we have a recession and QE Euro and Japan is going on.

 

Probably ignore it because they didn't do it right like the US and welcome in QE4.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 18:25 | 5871184 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

but....but.... the jobs number is so wonderful. This GDP number is clearly a mistake.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 20:22 | 5871539 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

If QE4 were to be "officially" announced, then it would be game-over.  So expect more of the ongoing and back-door variety.  All one will need to do is look at the expansion of the FED balance sheet as it will increase by another trillion YoY.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 18:45 | 5871248 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

That was GDPThen, this is GDPNow.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 20:19 | 5871422 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

What is real GDP? Government Dependent Propaganda??

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 19:02 | 5871299 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Only NigTards buying stocks. Gotta support the Pinko Fascist Commies (this is not racial, but ethical. That word really means "worthless human being"---and sums up those supporting the status quo)...

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 19:41 | 5871414 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

God says that a person who says "there is no "god" (creator)" is a fool"; literally a STUPID PERSON in the Hebrew.  Why? The same reason a person driving a car would never claim there is no such thing as an automaker...since both are quite obvious.

-

oNE mIGHT dEBATE wHO tHE cREATOR IS, jUST aS oNE MIGHT nOT dISTINQUISH a tOYOTA fROM a hONDA. 

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 20:18 | 5871384 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

The local weather forecaster's work for Walmart & major grocery chains; at least in the Midwest.  If you get to the store late after the hype on the "great white death" forecast; you got only beans and spam left on the shelves.  Good for business I tell ya.

-

What is a Climatologist?  A glorified meteorologist?  What is a meteorologist? One who is lucky to get the forecast correct more than 24 hours out.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 19:40 | 5871412 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

So much for low oil prices being unequivocally good:

Oil, gas industry may cancel US$1T projects on price fall

Reuters | March 9, 2015

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/09/oil-gas-industry-may-cancel...

excerpt:

"The steep fall in energy prices will hit investment in oil and gas projects worldwide and the industry may cancel about US$1-trillion of planned projects globally in the next couple of years, a senior Saudi Aramco executive said on Monday."

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 19:48 | 5871441 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

The missing part is the derivative loses, which are coming in May.  Expect rising oil prices once the boots hit the ground in Syria "officially" and Iran is bombed "officially".

-

Netanyahu said the low oil prices were a "tool" that help to hurt the Iranian economy...weaken your enemy before the attack.  Then oil prices can resume up up and away. 

-

Explains why the Saudis have been so cooperative in keeping up output with back-end promises; they hate the Iranians.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 20:03 | 5871468 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

That is an interesting notion, but I can't fully buy into that right now.  I believe the Saudis really are out to maintain their market share at the expense of the US oil shale/fracking "miracle".  I think the Saudis will keep pumping until their US competition is beaten down a notch or two.

Mon, 03/09/2015 - 20:17 | 5871520 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Never forget, the good-cop & bad-cop as it is played out on the national & world stage.  Back-door QE to help the most favored "frackers" & the little ones get swallowed up and the story ends happily ever after.

-

Take the "Net Neutrality" law; the bad-cops were Verizon (largest cell provider) & Comcast (largest internet provider); both against the bill openly & publicly (main stream media).  Therefore the law must be good, from the sheeple perspective, since the evil-corps are against it...Mission Accomplished!! Now the FCC gives "Net Preferential" treatment by controlling & taxing bandwidth.  The most favored will prosper (Verizon & Comcast) at the expense of the sheeple & small companies in higher taxes, less bandwidth & more censorship...about 2-3 years before people begin to complain; assuming we make it that far.  Think Affordable Health Care Act as most recent example.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!