Off-Balance Volume

"Buying" versus "selling" volume has diverged dramatically in the last few weeks as AAPL-buyback-driven exuberance has lifted US stocks to record-er highs (amid record selling from insiders). We've seen this pattern before but that time The Fed was neck deep in QE3 and Janet was proclaiming everything was awesome (with a dovish reassurance that they'd keep pumping)...

Volume divergence suggests the S&P could drop below 2,000... perhaps that is what The Fed needs as an excuse top prolong their decision. Equity bulls are caught between a BTFD rock (where rates will rise and lead to equity weakness) and a FOMO hardplace (where they sell now and hope that 'stimulates' The Fed to keep lower longer).

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

Comments

[HedgeAccordingly]

Perfect.

[NoDebt]

You can either wait for the QE4 announcement to pile back in or your can ride out the roller-coaster ride to get to the QE4 announcement.  Your choice.  But you WILL buy stawks.

[101 years and c...]

i'll buy stocks when they are under 600.

[Philo Beddoe]

I always like to buy aftert a 6 year bull run and during a time of unchartered monetary policy. 

[new game]

like cliff diving w/o sticking a toe in the water...

[new game]

kinda like that 666 number, brings me lotsa luck.

[negative rates]

Like drowning in a bath tub with no water.

[NoDebt]

Excellent, Philo.  That's the spirit I'm looking for!

[FMR Bankster]

This selloff should move us on to the next stage. The only question is will it be negative interest rates (see Europe) or the Fed just buying massive amounts of stock for their balance sheet.(see Japan)Most people would have considered either of these things impossible 5 years ago. Proves the old saying. "It's not what you don't know that hurts you, it's what you think you know for sure that isn't true."

[dirtyfiles]

its so called feds butts sniffing

[101 years and c...]

stocks down with no "driver".  sometimes, "they" just stop blowing air into the bubble....and reality reasserts itself.

[SheepDog-One]

They think 'equity Bulls' control it and are thinking whether to sell to force the Feds hand into 'lower longer'? o_O

[new game]

air is thin up here, janet send us oxygen canisters  NOW! 

raising rates? only reason would be to weaken the dolla, which has become the gorilla running the dry bulk index...

[TheRideNeverEnds]

Soooo, unch by noon?

[new game]

no we hit an apple high. irrational exuberance has run its' course. JMFO

[Youri Carma]

My view now is that the FED will raise rates insubstantially just not to lose face. Question then is how strong the market will react? The FED will of course have exactly the same question if only to test the water which also could make the argument stronger for why they will raise the rates be it quiet insubstantially like said. Could it be that FED's optimism is based on the fact that they themselves don't have to buy many stocks to keep the stock market up because of the many stock buy backs and thus if these stock buy backs end at some point we are going to see the real fireworks?

[Keltner Channel Surf]

Ever since I incorporated Tyler's new-age tech indicators, such as Off-Balance Volume and US-Macro, my daytrading has improved markedly.  Eventually, anomalies revert, as we see a bit today.

[theyjustcantstop]

this only reaffirms my fear, Americas markets will sell-off by 15%-20% overnight, when tshf.

with the .005%, with their hft's abilities, 15%-20% will vanish instantly and joe six-pack won't be able to communicate with someone from his 401k's administration center for a day or two, or before 35%-50% of your retirement disappears, and the other 50%-65% gets gated, or myira'ed.

my only question is, is the fed going to buy all the way down, or sell instantly, and buy everything at the bottom?