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Recession Alarm: Wholesale Sales Plunge Alongside Factory Orders, Worst Since Lehman
For the first time since Lehman, Wholesale Trade Sales dropped for a 3rd month in a row in January. Plunging 3.1% MoM (against -0.5% expectations), this is the biggest drop since March 2009. Excluding auto sales, wholesale sales fell 3.5%. Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% (beating expectations) with only a very modest -0.1% drag from oil.
This has sent the inventory-to-sales ratio soaring as the "Field Of Dreams" economy is back - but as one wise trader noted, we are now 10bps higher in inventory/sales than when we entered the recession in Dec 2007.
But the punchline is the following chart showing the annual change of Wholesale Trade Sales. It does not need much explanation:
It certainly puts the chart of the Factory Orders in much better context:
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They better not rescue Wall Street again!
You say that as if they won't, they will when they are commanded to by the FED.
Seems it is about time for their "Plan B."
War.
why not......its becoming such an obvious joke with plan A
PLEASE just let it happen on Obama's watch. I just want to be able to say "Obama's fault" for the next couple decades.
Have I mentioned lately how much I really dislike that guy?
Again, look at the charts its pretty easy to see what is going on.
Economy still in a recession to say the least
Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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Of course sales are down....inventory is stacking up like GM cars channel stuffed up Kim Kardashians fat ass.
And look at the other headline on ZH....consumer spending tumbles.
Nobody can afford all the worthless bullshit anymore that the sheeple are all expected to consume on like zombies.
Theyre tapped out and now everything is grinding to a hault.
Just look at the also crashing historically all time low BDI too.
Oh my goodness...Our economy is just too strong. You know. Kinda like how it feels REALLLLY COLD when the globe is warming. I knew this would happen when President Obama started creating millions of jobs everyday.
" Change you can beleeve in !"
WINNING......
Nah, famous words from the FED. TRANSITORY, BULLISH!!
"The shadow of the crisis has passed", wasn't that the phrase?
Right into absolute black, just like their, alleged, hearts....
I just want to be able to say "Obama's fault" for the next couple decades.
Sorry Pal, it will be blamed on all the other countries and their actions/economies. Or Bush. But never, ever, ever the Mesiah.
"When all else fails, they take you to War."
-Gerald Celente.
This is all like a movie.......False flag/black swan any day now....im here for the end credits.
credits go to, drum roll, bankster cartel.
this is starting to get downright enjoyable watching the sea of red, again.
How war, cold war, proxy war?
how can wholesale orders go down, we have 5.5% unemployment! lol
They are out of tricks. Von Mises said they'd do exactly what they always do- but in the end they can't get away from it. Now everyone is out of money trying to pay taxes and Obamacare penalties.
can't be again if its still
You say that like they ever stopped. I laughed my ass off when I read your staement. Come the fuck on interest rates still 0
RECOVERY
"Green Shoots"
Yeah, green shoots since 2009. Should have a pretty impressive economy by now right?
Ok, it's now all left up to those 4 people remaining people in the Middle Class to row the boat and pull us out of this depression.
Better make that 3, now. My uncle, chemical engineer for 22 years at a Big O&G in Houston just got his pink slip.
With recoveries like these, who needs recessions?
it's not a recession, it's depression
It's a recession within the larger depression.
it's a depression within the larger fall to the abyss
I don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but I think we're heading for the modern version of the Dark Ages. Kind of like the old one, but with iPhones this time around.
"The Recession withing the the larger Depression within the overall Dark Ages"
Oofah. I need a drink.
"Wench! Bring that man a mead!"
At least this time we go through the Dark Ages we will have Monty Python jokes?
"How do you know she is a witch?"
pods
nope, just dark ages
Don't piss on my Cheerios, or we won't let you rape and pillage with the rest of us.
i will think about it, mb tomorrow
Don't move my cheese, pleeze!
The dark ages were a good time for most. It was the era of a collapsing "big government". Administrators and bureaucrats in the Roman empire did not fare so well.
On the other hand, the subjects they used to lord over did quite well once the burden of taxation and oppression was lifted.
Thank you for brightening my mood. I'm really looking forward to the New Dark Ages now!
Some say the Monks lived very well in the Middle Ages:
The Carmina Burana contains numerous poetic descriptions of a raucous medieval paradise (CB 195–207, 211, 217, 219), for which the ancient Greek philosopher Epicurus, known for his advocation of the blissful life, is even taken as an authority on the subject (CB 211) …. the rules of priesthood include sleeping in, eating heavy food and drinking rich wine, and regularly playing dice games. These rules were described in such detail that older research on the Carmina Burana took these descriptions literally and assumed there actually existed such a lazy order of priests.
If manufacturing would just slow to nothing, that first chart would look damn good. Problem solved!
You'd think so. Then we'll have our Comrade-n-Chief get up and talk about the economic recovery, and how those evil people overseas aren't paying their fair share.
He'll get a standing ovation from his "diverse audience" at which point the MSM will either go on about how the recovery is awesome, or for Faux, how "the recovery would be better if we started bombing the Russians."
Joseph- Göbbels & Stalin would be so insanely jealous as to how well oiled our propaganda machine is. The sheeple don't even know its propaganda.
Nobody saw this coming. Nobody! You would have to have to be some sort of pyschic are something.
unexpectedly
Accidentally clairvoyant.
like a wonder
Jusqu'ici, tout va bien.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
chuchuchu?
We're all Endgame characters now. RIP, Beckett.
Recession Watch. Good name for it.
wooooooooooosh watch. think zeplin, ha...
starts with some omnious smoke.
Wake me when something I need, like hamburger meat, falls in price. A pound of ground round costs the same as a meal at the best restaurant in Albany, NY, circa 1968. Including a drink. (Taxes and tip not included.)
prices will only raise
We ground up a dumster picked turkey from last Thanksgiving yesterday as I just can't pay 5.99 a puond for ground meat
I was thinking about this today, how great things were in the 60s and where the fuck did we go wrong? A message for anyone in their 20s or 30s: Enjoy life NOW, because it most certainly is going to get worse.
Back in 1964, a McDonald's hamburger was 15 cents, a cheeseburger was 19 cents, french fries were 10 cents and milk shakes were 20 cents. For that $5.99, you could have fed half the neighborhood and looked like a big shot. No wonder when we were kids the coaches would all take us for ice cream or burgers after a little league game. THEY COULD FUCKING AFFORD IT. AND THEIR WIVES WERE HOME (screwing the neighbor, maybe, but, excuse me for shouting).
Try that today. A fucking single scoop cone is like $3, if you're lucky, and most of it is fucking yogurt.
Think about it. Just 50 years ago, you could have bought two cheeseburgers, two milkshakes and two orders of fries for $1 (actually, 98¢).
Today, you can get one ONE cheeseburger.
Have you had fucking enough?
Sorry, but I've been telling people they're getting screwed for the better part of the past 40 years. Pretty much, nobody listened, and look where we are. I'm getting a little bummed out.
Your 1964 dime is worth $1.14 today given its silver content which puts all those prices in perspective.
Fresh roadkill can be tasty, if you close your eyes when preparing it in the kitchen. My wife complains constantly......I mistakenly brought home a skinless skunk carcass once.......glands intact......I haven't heard the end of it yet.
I get no respect.
But dont you feel richer with all those dollar bills in your wallet? Doesn't the hamburger taste better?!?
I was at a party a few weeks ago. The host was bragging about how his home value has risen in value since he bought it a few years ago. I queried back how much has his home appreciated versus ground beef. He told me that he'd never thought of it that way. He definitely got the point, but he's no dummy either.
Damn. Everytime I buy PM on the dips, the price dips even more. Just bought Gold and Silver Maples a few weeks ago.
The NSA and the banks must be monitoring my activity and using me as the exclusive canary in the coal (gold) mine as to when they have to dump more naked shorts on the market to drive the price even lower.
The NSA calls me and says Hubbs is in buying. I wait a week and then lock in the best price.
See? I knew it! LOL.
The NSA is only monitoring so that when they round you up, they'll know what size armored truck to bring . . . for your PM, of course. The body bags are 1-size-fits-all.
Hubbs - Its a bursting of the commodities bubble of the last near 15 years. PM's are commodities, just easier to exchange than others for cash. I think we'll bottom by the end of this year and flatline for awhile. I view my PM's a ten year buy and hold and if necessary for emergency savings.
I think there are two of us canaries.....
But I'm in it for the long haul.
Arrest the FED. Move in with Navy seals and swat teams microwave weaponry and paratroopers. Throw them into prisons. Exile them, and the traitors in Washington, to Somalia. Long live the revolution. Its 7 billion against less than 5000 enemies. They lose. We win. Bitcoin Last Price $294
Green shoots just around the corner....or just shoot.
The weather is responsible for this.
If warming trend continues, the numbers for April and May will compensate for the winter months.
Or not.
I am doing my part by buying crap from amazon. Ordering steel toe boots soon.
I bought a pair of Timberland Pro safety shoes back in 2011. They were so amazingly comfortable, that I went back and bought a second pair. I use them for hiking too when not on a shop floor. Made in China though...(*)
(*) hopefully the cost reduction fairy didn't wave its magic wand and turn them into something less amazing since 2011
The steel toed Red Wings I get every year from my company are still 100% made in America.
Sadly, more and more of their selection is made outside the USA.
A quick look at their work boot selection, 81 styles are Made in the USA,. 53 styles are Made in the USA with Imported Materials, 8 styles are Assembled in the USA with Imported Components and 102 styles are Made in China.
My friend just told a story about his new boots. After many years of amazing service, his Columbia boots finally needed replacement. The new ones he bought from Columbia were made in China. He said they lasted about a year, and promply failed. He contacted Columbia, and I think he will get free replacements. But China made doesn't mean cheaply made. That's a mistake a lot of people make, assuming low quality. This was the fault of Columbia, who didn't know how to set specs. The Chinese can make boots to last 20 years. But you have to tell them to make them that way. I'm sure Columbia will be disappointed when they find out they'll make only 30% instead of 60% profit moving to China when the boots are quality, but hey! Next time, do it right and test your products before distribution! Eventually, when we lose the dollar as the reserve currency, the world will be exporting their inflation to us like we did to them for the last forty years. Imports will so expensive, we'll be forced to retool and make stuff here again. But that's quite ways off, after we drain the Washington swamp and have our first Rennaissance.
That "Washington swamp" you refer to, is actually a cesspool.
Something "happened" in February.
As I've stated before, I do production analysis for a pretty large company that makes corrugated fiberboard (cardboard).
It's like a switch was flipped in early February and our production has been terrible! Down week after week compared to last year.
Same here. I work for a local trucking outfit. Retail fell off a cliff and all we are really moving is damaged and bankrupt inventory.
sales of nailguns, however......
yup, hours cut, slowing when it normally picks up (sign fabricator). signs, signs everywhere, blocking the scenery, fuckin with your head... ha!..
everything peachy in ND and TX, ya know, cheap gas and all...
"...Do this, don't do that, can't you read the signs..."
Something "happened" in February -
people stop using dollar, it's simple.
Before Xmas. Had two contracts cancelled in November, which was twice
as many as I've had in 15yea. As a lot of my biz is in the home improvement side,
not a good indicator for RE. The 99.9% market has been dying off for years now, but I've picked up
a lot of 0.1% clients which has more than made up the difference.That was good until Xmas, and now even thats dropping off fast.
Time to batten down the hatches.
How's the Cardboard Coffin market doing? Just asking...uh ..no reason...uh...........
http://www.comparethecoffin.com/content/cardboard-coffins
Can I get one with a Chinese Red Star on it??
I heard the push is on again for Trans Pacific Partnership Treaty. China already has this Treaty Active with other Countries.
So now what?
- US Gets slave Labor in China & Ships US Jobs off shore
- US Will get Pharmaceuticals and Chicken and Chemical Products to help us poison ourselves?
We do make board that is used for coffins for paupers I guess. It's a heavyweight grade and has a woodgrain "print" on it. Kinda weird...
No crap...many, many, many years ago, early in my career, I worked for a major packaging company. My office was next to the technical support engineer and he brouht a paper sample over to me one day. It was very thick with multiple flutes (about 3 or 4). He said he was responding to a complaint on the board 'cracking'. I looked at it and told him it looked like the outside layer was cracking and may have had too much hardwood in it (the fibers are short and tend to crack when bent). He had come to the same conclusion but wanted confirmation. I asked him what the service was....he then told me it was for cardboard coffins.....
I then asked what the big deal was....the people are dead and a little edge cracking isn't going to be a problem with is functionality. Anyways, my first experience with cardboard coffins....just remember those cremated ashes you covet so much are a large portion of cardboard ashes.
I just bought $2K of metal roofing so March home improvment figures should be off the charts.
Is it just a State Tax Write off where you are? Or can you get a Federal Tax Credit too?
I have no idea.
Be patient. All that information can take months to compile and publish...
Down w the Proletariat, Up with the Zionist!
er... or did we get that Backwards. Sorry move along now.
"Don't worry!" "You'll get your Food Stamps, so shut up!"
"And Obama is now giving more tax credits, so enough about having a good job."
no arguement here
since i've been here (end of august or so) i've been predicting US will enter a recession no later than Q1 2015
Que the FED talking head in 3.....2......1
Fuck that! Everyone & the mothers should be investing in Green Tip 62gr lead.
I agree with M855. Molan Labe...
Just bot another 200-rounds of Fedcoat-greeter this AM!
Peter Schiff hit the nail on the head with this one, especially in regards to inventories.
Called it from 10 miles away... Again....
WAIT! BOA just called! They said your charts are upside down!
MOAR por favor
This one is the weather - retial sales are off 26% in the new England area do to snow - this will bounce back
But you didn't add in things like snow blowers, shovels, boots, jackets, rock salt, truck plows ect ect. All the things that New Englanders have to buy when they have a tough winter. So if its still off 26% then the numbers really got the Obama treatment. Retail sales are off because we are in a DEPRESSION. There is no bounce back coming.
Debt Jubaleeeeeeeeeeeeee..............................
more bad news? buy buy buy it all
Even though I don't buy this recovery bullshit, a lot of spending was halted in February due to the shutting down of the west coast port. Many people couldn't buy items they needed and had to wait until the restock. However the shelves haven't really been "stocked" the way they used to be.
This number should give you a 'feel' for retail sales in the immediate future. Not looking good, it seems. Just like many other numbers that indicate future consumption, like shipping. They all point to a declining retail sales environment going forward.
So why do they continue to predict RISING growth and sales? They keep acting as if these bad numbers are just some seasonal anomaly...maybe one or two such numbers would be, but the "anomaly" looks a lot more like an overall trend to me.
The problem with statistics is that they must be interpreted within a broader context, or they can be misleading. But they isolate the numbers, then try to find some excuse for them that fits their narrative...the 'weather' excuse for low sales cracks me up. Even if weather kept people out of the stores, it doesn't stop them from going online. They KNOW that online sales are exploding compared to brick and mortar, so if their theory was correct, you'd expect to see a surge in online buying if it was weather-related. But no...sales are declining there as well. So it's NOT the weather, is it?
it's not west cost only, it's whole system is DEAD. WAKE UP
No worries. The Fed will add a 'Longshoreman Adjustment' to the seasonal adjustment, and all will be well, chart-wise.
BTFD!
LMAO....ok this will blow your mind. I was at the Ford Dealer getting a trailer wiring plug in changed on my F250....talked to the sales manager and asked how things were going and he said the biggest problem they were having was having enough cars to sell. W T F? I don't think he was being sarcastic or yanking my chain.....so that has me wondering....maybe I need to drink the Kool Aid and this reovery IS happening. I'm confused. FWIW...I live in a shithole rural area where EBT cards and Disability are the norm and real unemployment is probably 30%.
fed can buy cars to make thing look good
According to your description, you must live just about anywhere in the U.S. ...
A Nissan dealer told me pretty much the same thing a few months ago, but they were also aware of the hundreds of acres of new cars being warehoused on huge lots; the rationale --being now a government subsidized industry-- is to maintain prices via artificial scarcity, while simultaneously maintaining the appearance of healthy industrial activity. The lots look large even from outer space.
Search for the Zehedge article from last year (05.17.2014): 'Where the World's Unsold Cars Go to Die'.
"planned obsolescence" taken to its natural extreme.
look they are about convincing the young of the west that hey it's much cooler to work less and just hang out, you only need a internet pipe some software smart phone and eat like a somali stoned on khat, the insects are the protein, the dirt helps clean your teeth - live in a apartment paying rent with 8 other 20 somethings-it's all great. the new normal. you see them looking at smartphones to make sure everyone knows they just had a hot dog. the way foreward from here will be like a sci fi doom movie, the masses much like cattle, with no work and living subsistance level with .gov cheese and the right to phones and internet. these sales numbers are falling because this new generation is lost in lala land of drugs and vitual reality..they do no consume products -they have been convinced it's more important to be texting, and building relations on line.
this is a death sentence to the west. we exploited some folks sure, but those are the same folks who want the old lifestyle we once had. with billions of us on this earth, the study of crowded animals produce one result: insanity in behavior-self mutalation, sexual depravity..violence...not looking good with the elite kids exempted for above- the elites know we are headed into chaos and violence and they just keep adding security via laws and security tech.
I don't believe sales are declining. It only makes sense that sales and trade would be rising in this recovery. For example, according to shadowstats, real unemployment is about 23 percent. This is great news since we now know that at least 23 percent of the population has the entire day off to shop. How can this be bad for business? Likewise, with falling wages, the chance of paying your mortgage is impossible, so those with houses can stop paying the mortgage and wait to get foreclosed on. Takes up to 3 years in places. During that time, the money they could have spent to make partial payments on their mortgages can now be spent on shopping. Thus boosting retail sales and trade even higher. The real problem is with all of these doom and gloom types who can't seem to get it though their heads that unemployment and low wages are good for the economy.
Recession? Remove the redefinitions, spin and optics and you get a depression.
This depression is causing increasing numbers of people who are jobless, homeless and hungry for the first time in their “rah rah fantasy lives believing they are exceptional” to learn the first lesson of human survival:
It is not what you say,
If is not what you want,
It is not what you know,
It is not what you possess,
It is not what you deserve,
It is what you DO that counts.
Can we finally have that stock market crash already...
Anyone else noticing a lot of empty shelves in stores no matter when you go shopping? For me, I can't find bottled water anywhere. It doesn't matter what store, what time, weekday or weekend. No water. I'm also noticing a lot of bare or nearly empty shelves for other basic necessities as well.
Where you posting from Cowboy? Bangladesh?
Midwest. When shopping on Sunday I asked an old friend I saw stocking shelves what the deal was. She said they weren't being sent enough product. They make an order but don't receive the full amount they need.
Believe it or not, shortages of consumer goods could really become a problem. Will soon explain why in some detail in an acting man post. A hint: the Fed's huge money printing exercise has massively distorted the economy's structure of production, and consumer goods production has fallen off a cliff relative to capital goods production.
Thank you for not acting like I'm posting from the third world. I also run a small store and everytime I make an order at least one item goes on backorder. I've been waiting for months for some products. The vendors tell me they just can't get ahold of some items.
Venezuela
Venezuela.
A Sludgy Uphill Ride: http://prestonclive.whotrades.com/blog/43596958618