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Why Is Per Capita Energy Consumption At Recession Levels After Six Years Of "Recovery"?
Submitted by Charlkes Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
Per capita energy consumption remains at recession levels.
One way to verify rosy official data--GDP growth, low unemployment, etc.--is to compare it with data that is less easily gamed: for example, energy consumption.Those seeking a realistic snapshot of the Chinese economy routinely turn to energy consumption and rail traffic data for this reason: at least until recently, these data sets were more reflective of real economic activity than the glowing official numbers.
So let's try the same analysis on the U.S. economy. Courtesy of Market Daily Briefing, here are four charts of per capita (per person) energy consumption.By using per capita data, we eliminate population growth as a variable.
If total energy consumption remains steady as population rises, the per capita energy consumption will drop.
As vehicles, appliances, etc. become more energy-efficient, we would expect per capita energy consumption to decline. For example, as mileage/unit of fuel of vehicles rise, the fuel needed to drive the same number of miles per year declines.
offsetting this gradual decline due to increasing efficiency is an overall rise in the standard of living, which in a consumerist society means owning and operating more vehicles, appliances, etc., taking more vacations, etc.--all of which tend to push per capita energy consumption higher.
Increasing efficiency is a long-term trend. The sharp drops in the charts below characterize the effects of recession on consumption: as economic activity plummets, per capita energy consumption plummets, too.
We can see this in the first chart of total per capita energy consumption: energy use plummeted sharply in the 1980-82 recession, and then recovered along with economic activity. The sharp drop in consumption in the 2008-09 recession was not followed by robust recovery.
Per capita energy consumption has remained at recessionary levels.
Just as striking is the decline registered during the housing/stock bubble years of strong GDP growth 2002-2008: the economy was growing like gang-busters in these years, why did energy consumption drop so significantly? Did vehicles, appliances, etc. get that much more efficient? Or does this reflect a less-than robust real economy?
Per capita transportation consumption is even more at odds with official rosy data.Given record-breaking vehicle sales and strong GDP growth, we'd expect to see equivalent strength in transportation consumption. Instead, consumption continuing dropping during the "recovery" and remains at recessionary levels.
Per capita residential consumption has bounced back, but remains well below 2007 levels after hitting multi-decade lows in the middle of the current "recovery."What really pops out of this chart is the dramatic secular decline in per capita residential consumption since the peak reached in the early 2000s.
The decline in per capita industrial consumption is not unexpected, given the mass offshoring of industrial production. While there are multiple factors at work here, it is difficult not to discern a trajectory of de-industrialization in this chart.
Courtesy of Doug Short, here is a chart of per capita vehicle sales. Once again we see a long-term secular decline in the number of vehicles sold per person from the peak over 30 years ago.
That vehicles last longer nowadays is a positive contributor to this trend, but it is noteworthy that vehicle sales per capita slid even in the go-go boom of the 2000s.
The current rise off the bottom in 2009 is suspect because so many of these sales result from subprime auto loans, cash for clunkers and various incentive programs. That the current level is still significantly below per capita sales in 1999 and 2006 after six years of GDP growth suggests that the current "recovery" is different from previous post-recession recoveries.
There are other factors at work here, of course--as the population ages, total miles driven tends to decline, the stagnation of income and the rising costs of auto ownership have led to a generational loss of interest in vehicle ownership, the boom in urban living has led many to abandon vehicle ownership in favor of car-sharing and public transport, etc.
But if we combine these data series, we get a picture not of robust growth akin to previous post-recession periods, but a "recovery" that by previous standards remains recession-bound.
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It's all Bullshit!!! Our ancestors would be rolling over in their graves. If they could climb out, these greedy, white, blue-eyed bankers would be hanging from trees with their fat bellies sticking out. You didn't steal from the lower and middle class in those days without repercussions.
"why is per capita energy consumption as recession levels after 6 years of recovery?"
Easy, we aren't in a recovery, we are in a depression
Obama: Because I outlawed incandescent light bulbs!
And got rid of gas guzzlers in '09!
Duh, cause my new watch is so energy efficient. I can email, text, listen to songs, all without having to take my phone out of my pocket!
pods
As long as you do it within the 3 hour battery life...
bankers are only white with blue eyes?
sounds like racism to me.
Not meant to be racist at all. It's what baseball was in the 1940's before Jackie Robinson. It's what it is. Do you think these guys on this list give a shit about yours or your elder's bank account interest?
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/06/11/the-list-of-the-best-pai...
Building real things takes energy. We don't build much any more. Just ponzi schemes, financial bubbles, wasteful entitlement programs and corruption of every stripe.
But.....but...Obozo said that "we didn't build that. The government did."
Wow, I think he's got it!
Listening to the SJW herd, we should reach utopia just after we start having LGBTWXYZ computer and physics studies Phd programs where they learn Wiccan Physics and non-gender biased C++....
That's why JPM, GS, and Visa are in the DJIA. Fraud and human misery are our industries now.
It's because America offshored all its labor and real work. Now they just consume the end product while all the intermediate effort and energy is expended and consumed in their vassal slave states across the globe. I haven't seen per capita final energy consumption data but I expect it's still going up.
I keep waiting for a daring reporter to ask Obama the following or similar:
As economic activity has slowed in the U.S., resulting in a decline in carbon emissions, what are you doing to ensure that economic activity remains muted to ensure carbon emissions stay low?
I like it.
We want a lush US landscape for when the Chinese come to take possession. KEEP YOUR HOUSE CLEAN!
The Chinese have there own VERY big problems. They'll be far to busy fighting amongst each other, as the middle class realizes they could he a lot more "middle" without the corrupt oligarchy, to engage in border expansion.
Because conventional oil production peaked in 2005. Engines that are expected to constantly increase speed (think economy and GDP) always need increases in fuel. If they don't get it we get a stall.
Why Is Per Capita Energy Consumption At Recession Levels After Six Years Of "Recovery"?
Because we aren't in a recovery and your government is full of shit!
Next question.
We are all now living sustainable lifestyles.
Some folks started to ride bicycles because they couldn't afford gas
just out of curiousity, has anyone looked to see what EPS would currently be if shares outstanding were the same as 2008/2009? afterall, i think earnings are flat to slightly up during the last 6 years and the numbers of shares have dropped dramatically due to all the buybacks. ie, there has been zero growth, except on corp balance sheets where debt has fueled the stock surge since.
Because Americans are exceptional.
Unlike other lowly creatures, americans can function without the primitive need of conventional energy.
How much longer do we have to wait until it's officially the worst "recovery" in US history?
Solar energy baby. Fukk da utilties.
trav7777-2010
''We are steaming fullspeed toward worldwide repudiation of debt and the banking system. When this crashes, people will realize how the major European historical imperial powers stayed on top even after their armies disbanded - they had the banks and controlled the paper that was used as money.''
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/piigs-claims-european-banks-15-trillion-france-most-hook-piigs-implosion
Let's try: because we've become exponentially more energy efficient in the last 10 years. And interconnected sensors, systems and software will ACCELERATE the efficiency gains in the NEXT 10 years.
Stupid article. Ignores demographic and technology reality.
Population bulge is now retiring.
Technology is increasing work at home.
Higher energy efficiency for appliances, transportation, industrial processes
Offshored manufacturing has increased.
Housing buildout is not needed (see #1)
Look forwards, not backwards.
fixit, tech and demographics is your answer?
electric cars - do use energy no?
work at home LOL you mean no work at your rented home?
housing not needed..lol again..take away that driver of the local economy and you get a depression
retired people still would spend if they felt secure, no one except those at the top, can be sure what economic disaster is near..so they save and do not spend. zirp took away a major part of retirement income and still does..
so where do you see this going again??
I think the population bulge you mention is being replaced by folks with Mexican accents.
When those that lost their jobs had to contend with reduced income, energy consumption was the easy one to hit. Many have changed lifestyles and hardware to reduce their energy demand. Even home based electrical generation is now starting to come on line in the US.
The electrical use patterns in the country and more specifically the electrical production base is about to change dramatically in the US.
Why? Because Obama is a Dumb-Ass!" Next question...
Maybe its because a few folks can't pay their bills.
Gas consumption has stayed down because a lot of people no longer have to drive to work everyday. Cheaper gas hasn't helped them, because they no longer have the jobs. They haven't been able to realize the benefits of that cheap gas. If they still had the jobs, they probably WOULD have seen a benefit, and would have been more willing to take advantage of it.
Now, they don't need as much gas, so lower prices don't matter. And what little they DO save on the gas they use just isn't enough to fund any spending.
Fewer high-tech items being sold means fewer devices plugged into the grid. Thrift makes folks more selective with their use of power, and since we traditionally waste a lot of energy, there are a lot of places that can be cut back if needed, and we are seeing that too.
The increase in auto sales does not automatically mean an increase in gas sales. How many of these buyers are new drivers? How many are simply replacing an older, less efficient vehicle with a newer model? Gas consumption in that case would actually decline with the increased sales, not go up, because it doesn't mean more cars on the road, just different cars with better mileage using LESS gas overall.
Businesses are all cutting back, meaning less power useage there. Then look at what is being ordered for future delivery, and you can see no signs it's going to pick up anytime soon.
Anyone expecting this to all turn around (on WHAT, I wonder?) are in for disappointment. This isn't some short-term anomaly, it's the picture of things to come. A deflationary mindset isn't something that Mr. Yellen can 'fix' with her magic tricks. It is a PSYCHOLOGICAL phenomenon, and immune to any of the weapons in her arsenal. And because these people, for all of their 'smarts', know NOTHING about human nature, they don't even recognize the problem. They think it's a matter of tweaking the supply of currency...that they can 'make' inflation by getting the formula right. All they know of deflation is from books, none of them have actually lived through one. It will be very educational (and frightening) for them, to see how it works in real life.
Once the mind set takes hold, people adopt it as eagerly as they adopted the free-spending ways before. Down-sizing almost becomes a religious obligation, people actually compete to outdo each other in what they can make do, or do without. Keeping up with the Joneses in reverse, if you will. Over-consumption is seen as a moral failing, and is scorned. Waste becomes Original Sin. The neighbor who keeps his old refrigerator running is seen as clever, the one who trades in after 3 years for a newer, stainless model is seen as a moron. (and if he bought it on credit, he's an asshole on top of that.) Thrift becomes the new normal, if people have any money left after expenses, they are much more likely to stash it away than spend it. They pursue thrift with the same gusto and determination as they once pursued endless consumption.
This was the mind-set that prevailed during the Great Depression. It was a good thirty years before that started to turn around, well outside the life-span of anyone at the FED today. "Warning investors! The next quarter is gonna be a doozy...for the next 30 YEARS!".
Imagine a consumer so 'tight' they save bar soap scraps, twist-ties, plastic bags and 'lightly-used' styrofoam. One who NEVER shops without envelopes full of coupons, who buys mainly basics and waits for sales on everything else. A consumer who refuses to replace an item unless it is hopelessly broken, and then buys a reasonably priced one on sale instead of paying MORE for an 'upgrade' every 6 months. A consumer with a horror of debt, who avoids it like the plague, and would never even CONSIDER using it to fuel consumption. This was what the consumer environment was like back then, and that generation NEVER resumed their prior consumption patterns. It wasn't until their GRANDCHILDREN came of age that it finally turned. There isn't any investor alive today that can wait that long for the 'recovery'...so if that's where we are, forget about it. Get a new job, because the whole 'investor thing' isn't going to work out well for you, ever.
Ask yourself how many I-Phones Apple is likely to sell to that crowd. How many times are they going to go out for dinner and a movie, where are they likely to vacation? How much 'stuff' are they going to buy their kids? What about appliances, cars, etc?
What I'm afraid they WILL succeed at is eventually driving us all into hyper-inflation. They will panic at the direction the economy is headed, and desperately start throwing money at the consumer-end to jump-start the consumption again. There will be pressure exerted to raise wages, push cheap credit. When that fails to have the desired effect, "Helicopter money" will start being 'dropped', a sort of 'QE', but for the consumer this time. And it will work, people will start buying again. But not because of any strength in the economy, but because by then it will become obvious to all that the money is worthless and people will be eager to unload it for anything of real value while they still can.
Logan 5 says there is no sanctuary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0Amt30_QVQ
Forgot à few charts, the per capita energy cost shift chart, the per capita energy skim chart, the per capita govt energy revenue chart.
5% increase in efficiency, 95% recovery (of the depression that began in 07/08)
It amazes me that people can be so fucking thick that they continue to blame Obama (or Bush, or Clinton, or or or....)
Read my LIPS - Obama and Bush - ZERO DIFFERENCE.
They are run by the same elites that ran every other president who came before them.
Please shut the fuck up and stop cluttering the comments of this site with this blame drivel.
It only makes you look like a fucking retarded donkey banging his head against the wall day after day year after year --- failing to learn what is glaringly obvious.