This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
China Reports Worst Industrial Production Data Ever Outside Of The Global Financial Crisis
Following two clear recessionary indicators out of the US in the form of the recently reported factory orders...
and Wholesale Trade...
overnight it was China's turn to remind the US that things can always get worse when it reported retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment all of which slid about as fast as the C:\China\economy\goalseek.xls would allow them, and wildly missed expectations, suggesting that China will strugle significantly even with hitting its downward revised 7% growth bogey. Putting this ugly data in context, China's overall industrial production just saw its weakest year-over-year reading ever outside the global financial crisis.
Here is Goldman's summary:
- Industrial production (IP): 6.8% yoy in Jan-Feb (GS and Bloomberg consensus: 7.7%); December: 7.9% yoy. Sequential IP growth (Jan-Feb over Dec) -4.4% annualized (seasonally adjusted by GS). December: +16.8% SA, annualized.
- Retail sales: 10.7% yoy in Jan-Feb (GS: 11.0%, consensus: 11.6%); December: 11.9% yoy.
- Fixed asset investment (FAI): +13.9% yoy in Jan-Feb (GS: 14.0%, consensus: 15.0%). December: 15.0% yoy.
- Property FAI: + 10.4% yoy in Jan-Feb, from 2014 full year growth of 10.5% yoy.
- Infrastructure FAI: + 21.7 % yoy, vs 21.1% yoy for full year 2014.
- Manufacturing FAI: +10.6% yoy, down from 13.5% yoy for full year 2014.
- Property sales (floor space sold): -16.3% yoy (versus -7.6% in 2014). New starts: -17.7% yoy vs 2014 full year -10.7%. Floor area under construction +7.6% yoy in Jan-Feb (vs. 9.2% yoy in 2014)
Activity data for the combined January-February period (the NBS releases these two months together given the difficulty of adjusting for Chinese New Year effects) was significantly weaker than expected across IP, FAI, and retail sales. For overall industrial production, this was the weakest year-over-year reading ever (China’s IP data starts from 1995) outside the global financial crisis.
We believe the weakness is primarily a reflection of genuinely weak domestic demand. This in turn was a function of weaker fiscal outlays and less aggressive administrative policy support for FAI (compared with late 2014), as well as seasonal effects of the heightened anticorruption campaign (which are particularly evident around the traditional gift-giving period of Chinese New Year). Export momentum is more difficult to assess given large Chinese New Year effects, but does not look to have been particularly strong either (the bulk of the rise in trade surplus has come from particularly weak import, on both price and volume effect) The yoy growth of industrial goods export delivery fell from 4Q 2014 level while yoy customs exports growth improved, possibly reflecting the difference between time of production and shipment.
Since the NBS no longer releases January and February activity data separately we cannot gauge if there was an improvement in February from January level. This is unfortunate since had February IP data shown an improvement despite downward Chinese New Year distortions, as happened to both the official and HSBC PMI series, we would be able to know if there indeed has been a sequential improvement on the back of more aggressive policy support.
Given this set of exceptionally soft data, we believe the government will certainly loosen policy further, especially in terms of administrative measures to encourage fiscal outlays, in the coming months. This should lead to at least some pickup in sequential activity data.
That's the bad news. The good news is that since every economic action has a more than equal and opposite central bank reaction, Goldman's conclusion is that "combined January-February activity data surprised significantly on the downside, which increases the likelihood of additional policy easing in the near term."
So just how much longer do we have to wait until the inevitable moment when the last marginal central bank joins the global currency war and starts "printing money" on its own, finally pushing the world over to the next escalation level in the "[insert noun] wars" chain?
»
- 7697 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
So just how much longer do we have to wait until the inevitable moment when the last marginal central bank joins the global currency war and starts "printing money"
Not much longer I'm thinking.....
(Knock Knock. Door opens)
Barry: Uhh, It's Vlad and Xi! What brings you to the WH so late?"
"Xi: Here are a bunch of USTs. We want them redeemed."
Vlad: "In gold."
Barry, now wait uhh, a minute, guys. Hey! How'd you get those pistols past the SS?"
" We told your Media gatekeeper at the door that they were clubs and He believed us!"
Putin and Xi can go kick rocks... they ain't gettin' shit... Chairman "pegged to the USD" Xi in particular can pound sand for all anyone cares...
bitches invented kung fu but still don't understand how judo works... hold on me = hold on you, redeem that piece of wisdom mafuckerz...
This is going to be bullish for stawks!
I feel sorry for Obama. All this bad news just weeks after he formally declared the end of the crisis.
Can you read? He declared the end of the shadow of the crisis.
I will translate from political english to english english
We just went through recession to drumroll depression.
I stand corrected. Apparently, the devil is in the detail. But in my case mastering english english is complex enough as it is.
/s you got down fine. just gets miss sometimes...
but here?
As a rule I never use the /s. You get it or you don't.
Bullish for us stocks
Our masters have two choices, let it blow up now or print and blow up later.
Enjoy the party.
our masters http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/03/08/the-hidden-history-of-the-incred...
So now, Navy pilots who are fuck ups won't even have the rubber dog shit out of Hong Kong gigs to fall back on...
Times are indeed tough! [but I hear Malaysian Airlines might be hiring].
Just buy their stuff and dump it into the ocean. Create reefs.
Hey hey here comes Chinese ZIRP! Devaluation of the Yuano. And MASSIVE exported deflation with 18 thousand containers per ship full of Chinese junk.
If the Buckee gets a bit stronger, then MOVE OVER, Dollar store, and get ready for an old Spanish invasion:
The Two Bit Store
tell me when the FED doesn't raise rates because a bank in Zimbabwe had a loan default. All part of the kabuki theater of the absurd.....with worse and worse economic choices giving the obvious result; followed by giving money to those that already have the most. The end of Obama can't come soon enough....and Yellen and that Israeli guy they made co-chair have to leave the FED or we will go to ZERO! Oh wait we will go to Negative as Zero is no longer the lowest you can go!
Who would figure cheating communist would bring us to this...and the Chinese as well.
An audit would sharpen their focus I bet.
It's gotta be because of the weather.
Tons of pent up demand is sitting on the sidelines.
Did China get Vortex'd?
gold on the sideline-no risk..
dollar gen, dollar tree, get to work..oh and buy those asia sea food products eat well america, FDA is never a problem except to whole milk farmers -who are evil incarnate.
Overmed
Yeah, FDA SWAT teams seem to work overtime throwing Amish dairy farmers in jail.
This "drop interest rates" for everything that ails your economy is a lot like penicillin.
It's lost it's effectiveness because of overuse.
What a one track, single-minded world we live it.
Fire the Central Bankers. They are indeed what ails us around the planet today.
How many more years are we going to be wasting on these worthless efforts and manipulations.
I'm not impressed. Wake me when they have negative production.
Send American weapons to these guys in Ukraine? Drunk soldiers crash tank after joyride – VIDEO
New Anonymous op as White House still ignores murder of American reporter Serena Shim in Turkey
Conspiracy Fact: Photos show Israeli soldiers with Syria’s Al Qaeda “rebels” in Golan Heights
Amazing 57 floors built in 19 days:
http://sploid.gizmodo.com/china-builds-complete-57-story-lego-like-skysc...
Pray tell, how can you be outside something when you are in it, did the Riddler write this one?