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The Mystery Of America's Missing Wage Growth Has Been Solved
One of the biggest conundrums, one that has profound monetary policy implications, and that has been stumping the Fed for the past year is how can it be possible that with 5.5% unemployment there is virtually no wage growth. The mystery only deepens when the Fed listens to so-called economist experts who tell it wage growth is imminent, if not here already, and it is merely not being captured by the various data series. Friday's jobs data merely confirmed that since the Lehman crash there has been virtually no real wage growth, as the increase in nominal average hourly earnings is right on top of the Fed's inflation target, instead of where Yellen would like to see it: somewhere in the vicinity of 4%.
And yet, when sophisticated, erudite pundits, usually from a paid leadership position, look at the data, they say wages are growing.
How is that possible?
Actually, the mystery only deepens when one looks not at the wages for the set of All Employees as shown above, but for the 80% or so classified by the BLS as "production and non-supervisory employees" who "account for approximately four-fifths of the total employment on private nonfarm payrolls." The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines them as follows:
Production and related employees include working supervisors and all nonsupervisory employees (including group leaders and trainees) engaged in fabricating, processing, assembling, inspecting, receiving, storing, handling, packing, warehousing, shipping, trucking, hauling, maintenance, repair, janitorial, guard services, product development, auxiliary production for plant's own use (for example, power plant), recordkeeping, and other services closely associated with the above production operations.
Nonsupervisory employees include those individuals in private, service-providing industries who are not above the working-supervisor level. This group includes individuals such as office and clerical workers, repairers, salespersons, operators, drivers, physicians, lawyers, accountants, nurses, social workers, research aides, teachers, drafters, photographers, beauticians, musicians, restaurant workers, custodial workers, attendants, line installers and repairers, laborers, janitors, guards, and other employees at similar occupational levels whose services are closely associated with those of the employees listed.
The BLS adds that "these groups account for approximately four-fifths of the total employment on private nonfarm payrolls." The remainder is the opposite: those which the LA Times defines as "primarily employed to direct, supervise, or plan the work of others."
In other words "working-supervisors", bosses, and other job "leaders."
The important math: production and non-supervisory employees, those not in leadership positions, represent 80% of the employed labor force. This is important when looking at the next chart which show the annual increases in hourly earnings just for production and nonsupervisory employees.
It is as this point that we ask that all economists avert their eyes, because it gets ugly:
As the BLS reports, not only is the annual wage growth of 80% of the work force not growing, but it is in fact collapsing to the lowest levels since the Lehman crisis!
But if the wages of the non-working supervisory 80% of the labor population are tumbling while all wages are flat that must mean that the wages of America's supervisors, aka "bosses" are...
Bingo.
The chart below shows what the implied annual change in supervisor hourly earnings has been since the start of the second Great Depression. Note the recent differences with the chart immediately above.
And there, ladies and gentlemen, is your soaring wage growth: all of it going straight into the pockets of those lucky 20% of America's workers who are there to give orders, to wear business suits, and to sound important.
Yes - wages are growing, for those who least need said wage growth, the "people in charge."
In other words, precisely all those economists who day after day repeat that, damn what reality says, wages are rising.
Well, guess what: they are absolutely right... when referring to their own wages! It is the small matter of everyone else's wages that they are dead wrong about.
So the next time anyone asks why there is no broad-based pick up in consumer retail spending across the entire population, just show them the above charts.
And with that, the mysterious case of America's missing wage growth is now closed.
Source: BLS, St. Louis Fed
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I second that vote, that's where I learned thirty years ago
Yup, a great start and into intermediate and advanced book.
I miss the plexiglass tub in my double wide for sterilizing bottles.
P. S. How do I get a down vote for that?
SAB Miller is trolling tonight
i didn't down vote you, where are you sourcing malted barley to come in at $.25 / beer??? unless you're talking about thimbles - me no savvy
Q. "P. S. How do I get a down vote for that?"
A. Revenuers, Teetotalers, Corporate competitors, and Totalitarian socialist micro-managers ALL feel that you are doing something which should be/is 'illegal'. Either THAT, or a ZH commenter who tried some of your home-brew seems to be too inebriated and pointed the mouse thing at the wrong arrow when 'upvoting' you.
WAR IS A RACKET, you know.
I read the book (the one by Smedley Butler). PERHAPS there is one who doesn't agree with his factual statements. A distant cousin of one of the politicos who tried to overthrow the U.S. government, perhaps.
I didn't down vote you but my costs per bottle were much higher $.07 for the bottle alone.
The health benefits of ethyl alcohol (in greater amounts than I would have thought) are well-documented. Add the inherently useful compounds in beer (likely almost non-existent in the swill that Americans drink), and you have a recipe for a happier, healthier life!
Where you are, they still have the Rhineheitsgebot. Lucky you.
Brewing Mead is a lot less hassle (and usually has around 12% ABV)
Liquid Bread and Ambrosia.
"Shit, I know shit is bad right now" Pres. Camacho
What I dont get is "where did all the money go"...seriously, dont laugh at me please, im sensitive but we are talking fucking TRILLIONS?
What am i missing?
Fyi...love being a first post whore...i expect more upvotes from you clowns...Just sayin, its obvious so stop it...i want at least 15 negatives...
You know where it went.
Into the pockets of banker and govt officials and "Bank Reserves".
Let me break it down.
You are a slave.
The bankers are the master.
The people who print the money are the masters.
The people who toil and labor for the money are slaves.
The more the people who have the power to print . . . print, the poorer the people who work for a living get, even if their nominal value in earnings rises (your dollars depreciate faster than you can earn a bigger wage).
There are periods of instability in which your wages might rise in value faster than they depreciated (such as now) but the general trend is you get poorer and they get richer, and in order for you to maintain your standard of living you get into debt (to the money printers) , Until your liabilities pretty much outstrip your ability to repay them in your life time.
Eventually the system will actually be so terrible that you will have multi-generational debt (your children's children will still be paying off your house long after you are dead).
One great way to solve the problem is to introduce new banking regulation, maybe a cap on total % interest on loans.
The general way mortgages are amortized is that you pay the interest first, this pretty much means a 5% interest rate can pretty much be 150~200% interest on principal (over the term of the loan, say 30 years you would probably pay the bank almost 2 million dollars for a 700,000$ house thats not "5% interest" thats closer to 186% interest.
If they made it say . . . illegal to earn more than 20% interest on principal on all loans . . . you would have a much more balanced and affordable system and banks would be forced to make more loans in order to keep their lifestyle going, gasp, they might actually be forced to loan to small businesses if that law was put in place . . . instead of just sitting on reserves made up of funny fed money forever . . .
But what do I know? we have a government full of marxist utopia planners who are calling the shots . . . best to leave the nations finances in the hands of these "experts" . . . pffft
So where is your pitchfork? Your tar and your feathers. (and please let us use imitation feathers this time around due to respect for wildlife).?
C'mon at some point the revolution has to spark.
(Got that NSA? Yup I said that.).... (hang Stephen Harper maybe but better to lock him up for treason...) Got that CSIS?
The govt called off the revolution by robbing and pillaging successful businesses and dispersing "benefits" to the chronically incapable/inept.
Its not that people inherently want to be lazy, disabled / unable to work or to find work . . . its that . . . the way things are . . . its not worth it when the govt makes it so easy for you to just sign up for "benefits" for being a slob. . .
This is how a businesses works.
You have two people doing the work of say . . . six people, while 3 people essentially do nothing/ and maybe 1 person "helps".
the way it used to work
You would do the work or get fired.
Now there are so many bullshit "discrimination" titles to claim that business owners can't even fire an unproductive worker without fear of some frivolous discrimination suite.
"He fired me because I am a woman"
"He fired me because I am black"
"He fired me because I am brown"
"He fired me because I don't speak english"
"He fired me because I am fat"
"He fired me because I am disabled and can't do any work"
"He fired me because I am a fat brown female who can't speak english"
And half the judges are . . ."fat brown females who don't speak great english" . . . so what do you do as a business owner? you do all the work yourself and pay the people on payroll to sit around because on the books "you are not allowed to work in your own company" so you need people on payroll just to make it look like you have productive employees on payroll . . .
I know for a fact , at my job, I do the work of atleast 3 people, not because I want to, but because I have to or nothing gets done and we all go broke.
If I could just fire everyone and if I "had the right to work" at my own fucking job-site I would be happy . . .
New Yorks labor laws are an atrocity . . . but I have roots here and don't want to leave . . . So I suck it up and pick up everyone elses slack.
Although the idea of quite literally saying "fuckit im buying a 5000 cabin in the woods and chopping fire wood for a living" has crossed my mind quite a few times, the world is making it increasingly harder to keep what you earn.
Hell
You can't even earn what you earn, you have to share it with 20 other useless eaters before you can even cut yourself a check because you are afraid you wont make payroll if you *gasp. . . actually pay yourself.
Its fucking ridiculous, the world is quite literally designed to completely fuck anyone who is capable AND WILLING to work.
The only solution is for everyone who actually does all the work . . .to take a month off and let this shit burn itself down. . . Ayan Rand John Galt style . . . everyone . . . just stop . . . let the system fail . . . let the heard thin out a bit . . . come back when the world respects you and treats you better . . . nothing motivates slobs like an empty stomach.
You forgot age discrimination. I have worked with several individuals that should have retired many years ago. Several were written up for sentinel events and were " reoriented" to their jobs. Several are still working and must have their work reviewed before released. In this economic climate, I don't see this improving.
You would think that a job involving patient care would have a low tolerance for this but it is surprisingly difficult to remove someone. They just try and set up procedures to prevent patient harm.
Miffed
Dude, you're breaking my New York heart. I have my own business and NO employees. The killer is the 15% SS bite on top of taxes.
I don't know what you do, but I'm sure I can replace two of your people, at half the cost to you.
I've thought about the $5000 cabin and chopping wood myself. Almost bought 11 acres in Wayne county, all woodland, though the DEC has it designated as protected wetlands, so you can't build anything there ever (except maybe a treehouse). Best part of all is that it's mostly o the side of a hill, not very steep, but there's NO WATER there, ever. Wetland, my ass.
Thanks, NY. Can't even live on perfectly good country land.
WE. ARE. FUCKED.
Well . . . atleast the pizza is good.
God isn't completely cruel.
Really, some days the pizza is all that keeps me going.
Lifes a bitch? have a slice . . .
"if you want the job done right, you have to do it yourself" 30 yrs ago and 30 employees, I'd look at the books and see I barely made more than the service jobs "I" did during the week how the kiddies were out cleaning shit. I make 6 figures today working 6 hrs a day instead of 14. And those 30 fuckers are on EBT, still milking my ass.
But
Gold Bitchez.....I pick up pennies
There are ways of ridding yourself of your Social Security number. It would be much more difficult to tax you for SSI if you had no number to put on yer 1040.
"I have my own business and NO employees. The killer is the 15% SS bite on top of taxes."
What are you doing? Incorporate and become an employee of your own corporation at a minimal salary and take the rest of your earnings as a distribution. This way you only pay SS taxes (that you'll never get back) on the (minimal) salary. This way, the employee pays half and the company pays the other, but the half the company pays is an expense.
Great idea on the dissing the world and chopping wood at that secluded cabin...until the tax man comes looking for his property tax payout.
4 acres, 1,800 sq.ft. house, three out buildings, my own well, thick woods, creek = less than 1K property tax. You gotta know where to live.
Sell a few cords to pay property taxes, and watch the revenuers come running to hit you up for income taxes and sales taxes.
I often forget about the government interference when I complain about companies offshoring, or importing cheap indian slave labor to replace the old white guys in the computer department.
Seems as though we need action on both points: A crack down on visa abuse, as well as an end to AA and all the nonsense it has brought with it.
Give me 100% tariffs on chinese shit, throw the wetbacks out, and I'll gladly give you the abolition of the minimum wage, and just about any other employment law.
So where is your pitchfork?
That is 18th Century.
Try this...
A one to two, by volume, solution of 70% Concentrate Nitric Acid and 92% Concentrate Sulfuric Acid inside of a Christmas Ornament sealed with a torch.
Then have Glycerin, or Automotive Antifreeze, inside of another Christmas Ornament sealed off with a torch.
Place both ornaments inside of a Pipe...carefully...really carefully...and seal the pipe.
Toss the pipe at the appropriate target. Or place it in a pile of trash in the middle of a road.
Here is the link for the synthesis of Polyethlyene Glycol DiNitrates. Without the appropriate safety protocols it is a blast.
www.wydawnictwa.ipo.waw.pl/cejem/Cejem-8-3-2011/Matyas.pdf
Pitchforks? They are about as affective as a gun.
You can get both Nitric Acid and Sulfuric Acid in quantity with no problem. And Antifreeze is available without any paperwork whatsoever at your Auto Parts store...
Who needs a gun?
You can introduce people to have a personal encounter with God. There will be no doubt, whatsoever, in their mind after that introduction.
Just joking...
You remind me of a wonderful bumper sticker I saw once, that said ...
There is no problem that can't be solved with a suitable application of plastic explosives.
Label me whatever way you like. but take a peek at these discredited Protocols of Zion.
Good way to read some suff and do a purge (puke) cleansing all in one fell swoooop.
Discredited, but strangely accurate.
thing is, it's gonna nuke, reset or some combination of both... people should be moving toward total self sufficiency! Also, you will see people buying large ranches. Make friends those are your trading partners. But they stole their sh*t? Maybe. Let God judge 'em. Feed your family.
Well said. Usury, sums up in one word what is wrong with our system. Get rid of it and things would normalize.
People are only too willing to enslave themselves through debt.
If you don't like the boss, quit empowering him.
Where'd the currency go?
A lot of it goes to US Govt. supported individuals and agencies toward the disenfranchaisesment and disruption of governments in countries around the world. If the fiat is still accepted, and the fiat is produced unbacked for free, there seems to be an unlimited power concentration there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KhR2tFXYIw
The Offspring sang about this YEARS ag.
Te conundrum is also explained by the "talking point" hypesters in the media always talking about AVERAGE hourly wage, around $27 and not median wage, around $17, or the real wages - around $10 - for most NEW jobs created in the past few years - restaurants, sales clerks etc. Most decent wages are paid in fields such as healthcare and education where taxes are used to pay them!
Hey Fed, why not try NEGATIVE interest rates? That should really help the directions of the charts above. Only wish someone was there to SUPERVISE the Fed.
or 5% unemployment, when actuals are probably more like 60% - potted meat is flying off the shelves,
and it aint bad (grilled) with grilled bread and some mustard, chase with cold beer if you can get it
Unfortunately even the low wage jobs are going to go as well.. when MacDonalds garbage sales are downturning how many employees are gone? Consumers are not buying,
People ultimatlely are slow but not stupid, They are not spending, world-wide. No reason to spend when your job and wages are threatened, people are paying down debt. And putting money away in some form they feel secure with.
OK still have idiots. But fewer. people are just not going to spend on garbage.
Mcdonalds garbage sales are going down. who do you think they will lay off. More part-time, non-benefit employees,
So we get a new structure where you might be able to juggle 5 or 6 12 hour a week service jobs with no benefits. Maybe $9/hr. And TAKE THE TAXES OFF EVERY SINGLE PAYCHECK. Called working for nothing.
At some point I belive you have made enough money.
-Any democrat
And I should make more
signed
Al Gore
Bill Clinton
John Kerry
Chris Dodd
Barney Frank
Peter Orzag
Rahm Emmanual
Tim Geithner
Hilary Clinton
Hunter Biden
Barbara Boxer
Diane Feinstein
Bloomberg
Nancy & Harry
Jack Lew
Willam Daley
Robert Rubin
John Corzine
any scammer funding the Democrats, which is pretty much all Hedgefund and Wall Street!
We shiznitted some folks......
Missing wages huh, okay.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ea9_1425811854
Oh, HELL YEAH!
I'm Lovin' It :)
"Don't get mad, get even!" :>D
1-800-GET-EVEN
Run by the M.A.F.I.A.
Don't get mad...get even.
Long Nitric Acid and Sulfuric Acid and Glycerols.
Just joking NSA...just joking.
There is no mafia.
Al Capone said so.
All those trillions are piling up into the biggest virtual tinderbox toilet-paper landfill the universe has ever knowd.
And the hot air Neocons are a fixin' to light off one bodaciously earthy methane-fueld jet-flame of asshat flatulence
to get that farty farted in the Ukraine breadbasket.
Yep. Putin's nukes in Crimea.
Because all the freaking jobs are retail or fast food jobs which equals a negative wage rate.
The Criminal Federal Reserve Banking system is a consortium of 9 Criminal Banks. All of which need to be dissolved, burned to the ground & assets seized.
$1. Rothschild Banks of London and Berlin
$2. Lazard Brothers Banks of Paris
$3. Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy
$4. Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam
$5. Lehman Brothers of NY
$6. Kuhn, Loeb Bank of NY (Now Shearson American Express)
$7. Goldman, Sachs of NY
$8. National Bank of Commerce NY/Morgan Guaranty Trust (J. P. Morgan Bank - Equitable Life - Levi P. Morton are principal shareholders)
$9. Hanover Trust of NY (William and David Rockefeller & Chase National Bank NY are principal shareholders).
Hang on C. The era of banking as we know it is coming to an end. And this time, too many people "really" know where to aim.
Aim small & keep investing in Green Tip.
Practice, practice, practice. lol.
While you're at it...
Naming Names: Your Real Government by Tony Cartlucci
http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/2011/03/naming-names-your-real-governm...
Whoa!
CFR is an offshoot of the Fabian Society and Round Table groups spoken of in Tragedy and Hope by Carroll Quigley.
The AMPP is also an bad ass site for those interested in detailed history and politics (stumbled accross it years ago..)
http://www.mega.nu/ampp/
This one was good too
http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/2015/03/us-war-on-isis-trojan-horse.html
You left out the Bank of New York and that funky named bank in Vatican City. I think it is "The Vatican Bank" and http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/06/26/the-vatican-bank-the-mos...
Sheesh.
It's not a bug, it'sa feature.
The FED is an I L L I G I T I M A T E institution; END the (not Federal) FED.
"The FED is an I L L I G I T I M A T E institution..."
Indeed, it is (which may explain why it's never been tested in court). Article 1 Section 8 (in part) confers on Congress the power to coin money and to regulate the value thereof.
Congress can delegate that authority within itself (to committees or subcommittees) but it cannot delegate that authority outside itself (except by amendment), lest the power no longer reside where the Constitution places it.
And yes, yes, I understand the Constitution no longer matters (if it ever did) to the TPTB, including their henchmen in Congress and the executive. However, if it really doesnt matter, then those who hold office under its auspices are pretenders. IOW, they undo themselves and their power by their own denial of the Constitution's legitimacy.
That would explain why many in positions of power are so eager to remove guns/ammo from the hands of citizens. They can ignore every facet of the Consitutional constraint, except the 2nd amendment (and please, to the collectivist-worshipping trolls, let's not have any palaver about the meaning of a "well-regulated militia"). Good luck to them on that one. The second amendment serves as backup when the other amendments in the Bill of Rights fail.
if unions could pull their heads out of their butts and stopped being so crooked....they could actually be a force for good. The unions in Germany are pro-company...but demand management treat the workers well and pay them....with good benefits. Only in America do you have a union boss making a million telling the boss making a million that he isn't paying his workers well enough...then they both jet off to their own villas!
know what "venturen", unions are only as strong as their membership...well let me tell you, most unionized employees dont even bother to show up at their union meetings !
And when they do, it's all like, " what you gonna do for me" and shit like that. Any union rep will tell you the same.
Maybe its because of the fluoride in the water or society just evolved into a hand out society, but people have lost their fight and employers and government know it...that's why they play hardball during negotiations ( harder than in past decades)...cause they know we have become a bunch of whinny ass, EBTers.
I could use more money, sure (save for retirement?), but as far as discretionary purchases go I don't think that their is really anything worth having; most of the stuff we purchase, no matter how cool, useful or practicle we might esteem it is mostly junk!
So true. In the old days there was a phone in the house and that was the phone for life. Things purchased were made to last. A small closet held all your clothes, the school clothes and the everyday clothes.
We've bought into the keepin' up with the Joneses neurosis brought to us by big media.
The only exception are those years when you have major medical expenses or other traumatic surprises.
That is symptomatic of moral decay and "keeping up with the Jones" is one result. Trading fixed moral standards, designed with mankind's best interest in mind that is set by one's Creator, then chose to make your own relative to other people and the drive is downward all the way all the time.
Face it... middle class has never been larger. That was thanks to runaway financialization and government gone wild. Now, party is over. Time for the crunch. Mean reversion is a motherfucker.
This crap has been wargamed longer than probably I am aware - which at least goes back to the 70's.
Agreed. Things got cooking with Nixon and the gold standard. Things heated up with free trade. Things are starting to boll over with QE.
I assume you mean by "waistline"? It use to take 2-3 Americans to feed a family of 4 crocodilians, now it only takes one and they are easier to catch.
lol. Costco has spices like paprika in bulk. Good prepper advice. ha ha (ewww.)
Let's see; more workers looking for those jobs in the 80% category (100 resumes per job), I believe means employers do not need to increase wages. In fact, you can hire one worker and get two for half price.
-The BLS doesn't know that in some areas Supply & Demand are actually a reality.
"100 resumes per job"!
Try more like 250 cv's MINIMUM.
I've heard employers say they delete cv's UNREAD because they just can't get through all of them !
That's why, I only reply to want ads, where I can go and give a blow job to the interviewer in person !
Crocodiles are very conservative...we do agree.
supply and demand are real, characteristics of natural systems ... it's the redistribution schemes of men that create the problems... currently, a reserve currency that is burning down (foreign tribute will continue to fail) and massive welfare programs - some of which can be justified when you factor in inherited productivity gains compliments of yesteryears scientists and engineers, but there are real problems and hard adjustments to be made - politicians kicking the can, and the .1% looting this thing six ways from Sunday
"we're in a tight spot"
moral men with courage are required, but they're not allowed in the gates ... freakin' frustrating
"moral men with courage are required" - Is that moral relativism? The fixed moral compass that had standards that were/are high & lofty we decided, as a nation and as individuals, was to antiquated and tossed aside; albeit it never wore out and proven true and faithful.
-
There do exist those you described, but only a few as opposed to the many; the latter's end is utter destruction.
if your brush has progressive paint on the tip, you picked the wrong color... need to get back to a limited republic form of governance as per original plan, that's what i mean by moral and courageous... you'd have to federalize the fed at this point, and run the rascals out of DC - maybe 50/50 chance - it could happen during a massive downturn in the near future, when the crooks are makin' their getaway - hope there something left worth keeping
time will tell
How can it be possible? Well, here's a theory: Is it possible that when the BLS generates unemployment and wage numbers it is only capable of manufacturing a steaming pile of bullshit to serve political propaganda purposes?
"...To regard the German collapse as primarily an 'economic catastrophe,' which can there-fore be cured by economic means, is one of the reasons why a recovery has hitherto been impossible."
Yikes! Ryhme, indeed..
"how can it be possible that with 5.5% unemployment there is virtually no wage growth."
Simple, there is lots higher than 5.5% unemployment. The gig is up. Everyone knows the stats are liars
Statistics can be made to say whatever is desired. And MOST of the world is clueless to the math... or the spin... or even the channels through which the control/power flows. Layers upon layers of misdirection, lies, etc.
Reality is that there are no good answers to the mess we are in. However, that does not excuse people manipulating the system. These people are guilty for crimes against humanity. In fact, the current lot of predators is only digging a bigger ditch for everyone.
by the end of QE 9 unemployment will no longer exist. We will have printed it out of existence. Smoke on that Russia.
And even within the "supervisory", if you remove Zuckerberg, the numbers turn negative.
If women were nurturing and raising the next generation, a high and lofty responsibility and natural calling and men were out doing the modern day hunting, then the supply and demand for workers would force wages higher...meanwhile back at the house the children are actually being raised by their mother and "wait till your father gets home" would mean that a father is actually in the home rather than a "Big Brother".
-
Feminism - started by evil men to enslave foolish women eaten up by their own failures in mate selection in order to destroy families far and wide, for misery loves company. It is akin to "divide and conquer" a strategy instituted by Satan around 6000 B.C. and still devastating families, societies and nations yesterday, today and tomorrow laying trails of great sorrows.
so short apples then?
Xlnt except I would not capitolize the S in satan....
It is proper name for an evil entity.
Do you think that I should not capitAlize janet yellen or ben bernanke? They are part of his minions after all.
Spot on Crocodile.
You forget women bought it hook, line, and sinker. We must have both parents working so your children can become wards of the state indoctrination programs. We must have both parents working because we debased the currency so badly one income families are not supposed to work anymore. We then use the media to demonize the male gender and tell everyone on a daily basis how men are not responsible, lazy, abusive, and never fulfill their obligations. The media then makes almost all TV shows with single parents and this is now the norm. We replace family values with consumerism and portray a stay at home mom as an ignorant dredge of society. All so the people can spend more money or worse try to make ends meet because it now takes two to make ends meet.
Now the number one killer of women is heart attacks where in my younger days cancer was the killer. Well now women can have all the streeses we men have always faced at work. The real employment problem is men are tired of working!!! Why work when your wife can do it for you!! Why work when you can now take care of the children. Why work when you can pursue other ventures you actually enjoy and receive government handouts to do it! Most women I know now especially the younger ones are better educated then their husbands and boyfriends. Gotta love role reversal.
Why pursue an education when you can now get a sugar mama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's the newest fad! Dummies dating doctors! A few of my buddies are capitalizing on this role reversal in a big way, one was a mechanic and the other was a painter, now they manage properties due to unlimited credit they have due to their sugar mommas!
It's the newest fad! Dummies dating doctors! A few of my buddies are capitalizing on this role reversal in a big way, one was a mechanic and the other was a painter, now they manage properties due to unlimited credit they have due to their sugar mommas!
It's the newest fad! Dummies dating doctors! A few of my buddies are capitalizing on this role reversal in a big way, one was a mechanic and the other was a painter, now they manage properties due to unlimited credit they have due to their sugar mommas!
Let's see Government workers wages overlaid on same chart, especially unionized gov't workers. And maybe add state and local gov't workers wages as well.
hairball
Up and to the right. QE has been good to all the .gov motherfuckers.
I smell a dead cat!
When you know they are just going to make it worse, it's time to get to know your neighbors and figure out some solutions that work for your particular situation.
Our ancestors came here with nothing and look what they built.
Let's not let them take our enterprising spirit from us.
Managers for the corporation I am employed at have what has to be the gig of the century. The company closed all the offices. They now 'work' from home or where ever.
I have not seen any manager in over a year. All meetings they have are teleconferenced. The manager over me manages another personal business on the side. He can rarely be reached. The only time he make appearances is for disciplinary actions. He makes 75 - 85 thousand a year before the many bonuses they receive for their excellent managing skills.
Can't beat that with a stick!
Most corporations survive through market domination. I am in a lot of different high level corporate offices and there are lots of very quiet and mostly empty offices. Bureaucracies exist to avoid accountability and insulate themselves with lots of layers of coworkers. If they were ever opened to competition their ranks would shrink dramatically. We all see the waste and know that it can only be supported by a monopoly that prevents competition from taking its toll.
Old saying applies here: 'Too many chiefs not enough indians'.
And that's the whole point of this exercise: to create a slave class working for the rich
In 1989 as a H.S. student I made 5.80 per hour retail. Back then, companies begged to have people work overtime if possible instead of having to train someone new. Now? I work retail because I can't find anything else, and I make 7:30 per hour at Kroger! (2 billion buyback in '14) and Im lucky to get 34 hours per week! + they set everyone up as a single payer with no deductions so I've lost almost $50 lent to the government interest free! I fixed it as I now how 10+ allowances! I'm hoping to network with some of my cusotmers to find a new position.
Go work at Meijer. Mandatory union membership and dues confiscation. Much nicer!
(Seriously though, I can walk into a job at Price Chopper and make $10/hour, and we went to HS at the same time. I think you need to look inward just a little for a solution to your situation.)
Not sure where you're at, but the Kroger in my area is union run (pretty sure all Krogers are).
Must be a bitch paying dues out of minimum wage.
The one thing missing now is whats up next?
Do you want to know?
Well as inventories now start the spiral upwards, rising at ever faster rates, in the next one to 4 months, and the fact becomes embedded in the consciousness of these so called managers and supervisors, they will start panic cancelling of the next gigantic shipments of goods from China.
But the docks in Shanghai GZ HK and SZ are stuffed with ships loading, the seaways are full of ships on route, and the west coast ports are stuffed.
It takes 5 or 6 weeks just to cruise the Pacific, add in the delay to allow the feeble brain cells of said managers to register something is going wrong , what say another 3 months, and it becomes easy to predict when the panic inventory sales will start.
Because inventory sales have to follow.
Do you want to know why ?
Because in the last quarter, 96 % of all income in the SPY went on stock back buybacks and dividends to prop up the bubble.
In other words, peak cash flow, and overflowing inventories and dropping sales. does not leave enough room for these supervisors and managers to finesse another stock buy back to keep their inflated salaries and bonuses growing.
And because of falling sales, it cuts the line of credit down and makes it more expensive to borrow to finance said stock buybacks and dividends.
So next we can hear their little brain cell churning data, and they figure that s the great inventory liquidations get under way, they might as well get the great layoff and sacking underway too just to make sure they have enough cash to burn on their vastly over priced stock and waste on dividends to themselves.
Bit wheres the cash coming from.
You got it, from the fucking useless yellen bitch, who will crumble and fold as soon as they tell her to, and that's why interest rates will never get off ZIRP or less, and QE fucking 87 or whatever it is now gets under way.
But this time it won't work quite the same. Because no one will believe the dumb cows excuses for starting it and it would need to be orders of magnitude above the last printing binge.
Small businesses, SME's non listed corporations will get hit first, like a fucking meteorite dropping on them, orders will simply vanish and invoices will be unpaid and banks will spend more time hunting them with dogs and guns.
Bankruptcies will make a mushroom cloud, and unemployment will reach 500k or even a million a month.
With zero savings, starvation riots and social breakdown hanging heavy in the air, all money printing will be directed at hand pouts and not the C - suites, much to howls of protest from the fucking wankers in Wall St.
by year end, DOW 6,000, S&P 500, NASDAQ under 1,000.
Now you can call it for it really is.
A depression, one to make history all over again.
inventories rising? so i wait a couple months to buy that Plasma tee vee? or a MS Surface-if they dont stop production becuase of poor sales...
War is up next.
You didn't earn that raise. Your .gov made it possible.
Wow.
If only we could come up with a system whereby wage slavery didn't exist, the "bosses" didn't own the means of production, the workers owned the factory, and large-scale economic policy was planned by qualified individuals elected by the majority of the people! Then we could give to each according to their needs, and take from each according to their means! This is revolutionary!
O... Wait.... no it's not.
Like the Soviet Union, Maoist China, Venezuela and North Korea! We would have it made!
Two points.
1) 20% supervisory seems like an awfully high number, a lot of bossing and controlling, but I believe it. IMHO, this represents a huge social waste. The same degree of organization and effort could probably be achieved with a fraction of the bosses if people liked their jobs, believed in what they're doing and didn't hate their bosses or their company. But the way our economy is organized now these positions are part of the process of production, part of the cost of production, to be pared and trimmed, outsourced and automated whenever possible!
2) The argument being made from these statistics is unconvincing. We see times (2012, 2013, 2015) when the supervisory personnel saw much higher wage growth, but the rest of these years it was much lower. This is I think not where the problem is - and this kind of hard-breathing loose-thinking talk about statistics and graphs is not what we have come to expect from Tyler.
Your economists, prognosticators and editors belong to the next stratum up: the policy-making, opinion-making, rule-setting and oversight caste, which is perhaps what people mean when they talk about the "political class". Things I have seen (but can't point to) suggest they might be concentrated in more like the 95%-99% of the income distribution - but that bracket of course also includes many professionals and small business owners who actually do useful work. Reportedly they're making out fine, and from my personal encounters I can testify they are also the clueless class.
This article contains some really stupid analysls.
Another way of reading the data is that the competition for hiring management-level employees has increased.
Because everyone wants to labor and no one wants to manage...
No minium wage serfs are now in demand to a much more greater extend. That for sure shall lead to wage growth.
Get rid of the minimum wage and all of a sudden the people who are trying to make a living will actually make more, while the people entering the workforce w/o experience will make less. Problem solved.
youve been drinking the stoopid(sic) juice
Supply and demand + mass immigration says you're wrong.
It's very simple. The oligarch vermin who own congress and the media have been importing untold millions of people to drive down wages. This enriches them at the expense of everyone else. They are traitors.
Everything else is spin.
Agreed. Almost all economic policy -- free market OR socialist -- depends on some reasonable limitation on immigration (both in and out, in most cases). Right now we have open borders, which means minimum wage CANNOT exist.
the revolution will start ....right after the invasion...
It's going to be pure entertainment to see how the fortune 500 buyback and bullshit their way out of a skyrocketing USD.
With the USD rocketing, any US based exporting company is going to get crushed from a sales and profit perspective.
Oh my, that's one big fat fucking.....balance sheet you have Yellen. 4.2T? We think not you fucking liar. 10T? Getting warmer!!
Not so long ago, and not too far away, The Jews of Wall Street told the FED 12 Trillion FRNs is what will be required to make them safe into the next millennium, and they don't give a good damn about what they did to bring the global economy to its knees in 2007, in derivatives or MBSs, nor do they care about anyone or anything else.
Do it, or they will crush the economies of all first world countries.
We should be close to that number by now.
10T? You betcha.
"Give me the ability to print the money, and I do not care what the nation's laws are".
<<< surprise
<<< no surprise (RIP US economy)
Middleman sees straight ahead and never crosses borders
Never understood the artist or the lazy workers
The world needs steady men like me to give and take the orders
Give and take the orders
Give and take the orders.
-Gentle Giant, Mister Class and Quality
Old School. +1 for CheekyBastard.
Or, there is wage growth for younger workers that just doesn't show up, because the older, more expensive workers are leaving the workforce to retirement.
But it could be your story too.
With people putting off retirement for decades, because they can't afford it, and the youth unemployment rate at historic highs... that must be the case.
Your analysis is not surprising because you failed to expound on one very important fact that drives wage increases...the ratio of full time worker to part time worker, i.e. The Law of Supply and Demand. When employers can not make due with part timers, they hire full timers and when there is a relative shortage of full timers wages of necessity must rise.
It should be obvious to any dolt that when there is a massive overhang of idle labor (historic low labor participation rate) combined with adverse government regulations penalizing the hiring of full time workers (>29 hrs per ObamaCare) that employers are hiring on the cheap. Maybe we should notice the fact that full time employment has as of yet to recover Jan 2009 levels, never mind 2007/8 levels. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!!! You can't have rising wages when labor is a dime a dozen.
Most economists are flaming liberals and as a result of their insular world view it is a mystery to them why wages aren't rising. To the Capitalists among us, it is no mystery at all. The only real mystery here is why Obama hasn't taken the heat for his gross incompetence in creating the situation just like FDR did during the Great Depression with meddlesome government regulations.
Why don't you superimpose new taxes paid since Lehman over that little chart. You'll see what the rest of the world already knows the middle class is DEAD.
Your upper management are probably salaried, whereas your workers are probably paid by the hour.
As long as labor is tied to the hourly wage, you won't see their pay go up, not by much. Productivity is no longer dependent on the time spent, so an hourly wage can never capture the productivity gains. As long as that situation is in place, all gains will 'trickle up' to management/owners.
If you could slice up the numbers you would find that a large part of the 80% that is showing no wage gains is getting a pay increase.
It is the sub group within this 80% that has no real skills that is not getting any pay increase.
It would take me 3 years to train a manager - 2 years to train a supervisor - and a year to train a lead. Specialized positions like refrigeration maintenance could take 5 years to fully train - they earned 2X more than a general supervisor.
So YES supervisory people get bigger raises.
But the people with specialized skills got raises too.
Because they are harder to find and take longer to train.
I could train a production line person in 14 days.
So when you only have so many $ you can spend on wages you allocate it to the folks that are the most difficult to hire and train.
I am sorry if this gives some people a problem - but that is just the way it is and if you want a pay increase learn a skill that a company needs - one that takes more than a couple days to learn and you will get bigger raises.
I wasn't running a fucking charity - and I was in fact treating people fairly.
-------------------------------
PLUS - just because you don't give people a pay raise does not mean their cost to the company stays flat.
I was getting slammed with health care costs - and if you consider the guy making $9 an hour costs the same to insure as the guy making $45 - in a strange fucked up way - on a total employee cost - it was the lower level people that were causing my TOTAL labor (wages & benefits) to increase.
One making $1,500 a month in wages VS $7,500 for another.
Over a three year stretch my insurance cost went from $250 per employee per month to $600. That $350 a month bump is 23% of the lower person's pay not even 5% of the higher paid employee.
ANY WAGE ANALYSIS that just looks at wages and not TOTAL COMPENSATION is meaningless.
Nobody is arguing that people with more skills shouldn't be paid more. The problem is the oligarch vermin who own congress and the media are importing millions of people to drive down wages towards serfdom and slavery.
If you have no skills you get low pay - and no chance of a raise.
If a "native born" American gets to 25+ years old and has not bothered to acquire a skill that makes them worth hiring for 2 or 3 X minimum wage - how can you blame that on anyone except the individual?
You think the "oligarch vermin" is keeping the ignorant loser with no skill down in a low pay job? I think the ignorant loser with no skill is keeping himself down.
BTW - I hired people that were from Mexico, Vietnam and Cambodia that had college degrees to do low skill jobs (they spoke no English) - they worked like crazy - they took advantage of the company ESL (English as a second language) program and within a couple years they had either moved up into a higher level position - or left the company for a better position.
Most of the no skill American workers couldn't be bothered with taking any of the classes we offered - they stayed in the dead end position.
The next level up from production line worker needed basic math skills - we allowed calculators - so it was really just the ability to understand some simple calculations -
We had in house classes people could sign up for if they wanted to learn these basic skills - I would say they are about as hard as balancing a check book.
It was classic - happened all the time - lazy fuck Americans would say - give me the job first - then I will take the class IF YOU PAY ME FOR THE HOURS I AM IN CLASS.
If you can't even understand how to add and subtract a few numbers using a calculator by the time you are 30 years old - that is on YOU - don't expect me to pay you for stuff you should have learned in 5TH grade.
Much larger % of the immigrants would sign up and take as many classes as they could - and when a job came open they were ready for it.
So
Your view on immigration is fucked up - maybe you are racist - maybe you are just ignorant - but for sure you have never had to hire people to get a job done.
the oligarch vermin are waging economic warfare on their nominal fellow citizens - it should be treated as treason
I never had an oligarch stop me from taking a class or learning a new skill.
HAVE YOU?
What was their name?
The point is
If the only job you qualify for has such a low level of skill it only requires 2 days to learn -
then that is on you and not the fault of some politician, oligarch, CEO, or .001%er.
If a person is the type that thinks it is someone else's fault they have no skills anyone is willing to pay more than $8 a hour for - that could be a hint as to why they are living such a loser life.
The banking mafia are pure evil and they have always been pure evil.
The "Banking Mafia" .... are just sub-contractors .... of the "Government Mafia" .... think hit men !
Now, show us a graph .... that doesn't include .... government workers .... and their bennies !
So many industries (defense, health care) are subsidized by the government that there is plenty of room for bureaucratic bloat.
My engineer brother for example works for a "private" company, Insitu, which makes drones. So his job is being mainly subsidized by the government as opposed to my other brother who works for CAT, ( I know, I know there will those who say CAT makes bulldozers for the military). The bureaucratic bloat factor difference between these two companies makes any statistical measurement meaningless. The government has its fingers, and fiat money through debt infusion, into so many of these industries it is impossible to make any clear cut measurements.
The only people with wage growth are those tied to the companies that caused the 2008 Financial Meltdown.
Never have so few who deserve so little been given so much.
Geeeee......
The economy isn't growing so there isn't any job growth or wage expantion AND they want to import additional illegal aliens to fill what is left. This is a "free economy."
And here is the proof that trickle-down economics is BS
Let's not start off a discussion of US wages by using a totally inaccurate unemployment rate. Actual unemployment is over 20%. Therefore the law of supply and demand indicates an oversupply of labor which results in increased competition for every available job, thus allowing employers to offer a lower wage. The very large corporations who can choose between higher priced US labor and much cheaper foreign labor are a major factor in this labor supply and demand situation here in the US. Since trade laws, taxation laws, and lack of restrictions on capital movement are moving in the same direction as the last 40 years, don't expect any improvements in the US labor market or wages. Unless there are changes, don't expect our jobs to return until we are willing to accept Chinese or Indian wages and benefits.
Well done on the analysis Tylers.
RE
Same thing here. My company has had HUGE turnover YOY for the past 3 years. Ever since they IPO'd, no more bonuses, nickle and diming every corner despite the stock being up 3x's this year (bubble much?). They gave employees 8-11% raises this year, but I also think that is because the company is also getting crushed on Glassdoor for their low pay.
What's a red flag for me is that fact that the higher ups have been selling the shit out of their stock the last few months. I know the company has been doing some buybacks too. It won't end well, methinks (not that I care, I;m leaving in 2 mths).
All this chart shows is the veracity of Piketty's theorem : growth feeds the financial bubble and its suppots (henchmen) in all sub segments of the economy.
R> g is true in the macro wage segment like it is in the financialised economy where financial assets and gdp are in a death cross.
And, talking about death crosses, one might argue that the current currency war hotting up between EU and US, as witnessed in the euro/$ exchange rate dive, could, if it persists in this direction; without an incremental effect on the energy price which is vital to US financial and shale strategic plays; be the nail in the coffin of WS asset bull market all to the benefit of a resurgent EU market. When the ebb and flow of money is an end in itself!
Something that is a conundrum that nobody truly understands-- such is the profound contradiction between US financialista WS asset r>g-- that even a laggard EU could appear like a lighthouse beacon to a shipwrecked Oligarchy HF cabal looking desperately for a port of call on a stormy, world economy in deflation, starless night.
Where can all the hot money run to like a bat out of hell from Montezuma's pillar to Tripoli's post ?
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=530_1425920656#3Br09QWIbVjGP6TE.99 'Where is Vladimir Putin?' Russians Ask, as Leader Drops Off Radar for a Week
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/where-is-vladimir-putin-russians-ask-as-l...
"Altman: 5.5% jobless not telling true labor story"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/altman-5-5-jobless-not-131541566.html
To me it is absolutely unbelievable the the Federal Reserve Board, the academics, and the politicians are stumped as to how it is possible that with 5.5 percent (statistical rather than actual) unemployment there is virtually no wage growth.
Those in production and non-supervisory jobs, which represent 80 percent or four-fifts of the total population employed in the private sector have seen their wages stagnate ever since the Great Repression, while those employed primarily to direct, supervise, or plan the work of others has increased. The conclusion arrived at by the author of this article is that “soaring wage growth” is limited to “those lucky 20 percent of America's workers who are there to give orders, to wear business suits, and to sound important.”
This is certainly a simplistic and shallow conclusion. Put into another context, which represents the economic of reality, the worth of labor is constantly being devalued along with displacing labor workers entirely as a result of tectonic shifts in the technologies of production that is shifting production from a labor-intensive state to a non-human-intensive state. This means that technological invention and innovation is constantly functioning to create “tools” to reduce toil, enable otherwise impossible production, create new highly automated industries, and significantly change the way in which products and services are produced from labor intensive to capital intensive. At the helm of this transformation are the workers who are employed primarily to invent and innovate, as well as direct, supervise, or plan the work of others. Unfortunately no one is looking at the “invisible ownership” of the “tools” that are being created and that represent the core of this transformation.
Our scientists, engineers, and executive managers (those in the 20 percent category) who are not owners themselves of otherwise narrowly owned corporations growing the economy, except for those in the highest employed positions, are encouraged by the ownership class to work to destroy employment by making the capital “worker” owner more productive by employ ever-more productive "tools" and "machines." How much employment can be destroyed by substituting "machines" for people is a measure of their success––always focused on producing at the lowest cost. Only the people who already own productive capital are the beneficiaries of their work, as they systematically concentrate more and more capital ownership in their stationary 1 percent ranks.
With more people in search of fewer jobs that pay well, or without the necessary skills necessary, there is no market necessity to raise wages. Yet the 1 percent, who are the employers, are not the people who do the overwhelming consuming. The result is the consumer populous is not able to get the money to buy the products and services produced as a result of substituting machines for people. And yet you can’t have mass production without mass human consumption made possible by “customers with money.” It is the exponential disassociation of production and consumption that is the problem in the United States economy, and the reason that ordinary citizens must gain access to productive capital ownership to improve their economic well-being.
PUTIN: "It's Alive It's Alive--It's ALIIIVVVE!!!" : http://prestonclive.whotrades.com/blog/43076327042