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The "Warnings" Begin: Intel Slashes Q1 Revenue Forecast by 7%, Blames "Weak Demand"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Unpossible? Chipmaker Intel just took an ax to its Q1 global revenue expectations:

  • *INTC SEES 1Q REV. $12.5B-$13.1B, SAW $13.2B-$14.2B, EST.$13.72B
  • *INTEL CITES 'WEAKER THAN EXPECTED` BUSINESS DESKTOP PC DEMAND

Of course, we will be told this is one-off and that Intel is now no longer a belwether but "weaker than expected conditions in Europe," is not what the talking heads have been telling us.

 

 

Full Intel Statement:

Intel Corporation today announced that first-quarter revenue is expected to be below the company's previous outlook. The company now expects first-quarter revenue to be $12.8 billion, plus or minus $300 million, compared to the previous expectation of $13.7 billion, plus or minus $500 million.

 

The change in revenue outlook is a result of weaker than expected demand for business desktop PCs and lower than expected inventory levels across the PC supply chain. The company believes the changes to demand and inventory patterns are caused by lower than expected Windows XP refresh in small and medium business and increasingly challenging macroeconomic and currency conditions, particularly in Europe.

 

The data center business is meeting expectations.

 

The company is forecasting the mid-point of the gross margin range to remain at 60 percent, plus or minus a couple of percentage points, as lower PC unit volume is offset by higher platform average selling prices. Expectations for R&D and MG&A spending and depreciation in the first quarter remain unchanged.

 

All other expectations have been withdrawn and will be updated with the company's first-quarter earnings report on April 14.

 

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Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:11 | 5881057 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Infinite NSA spying on this world using American tech companies is not helping.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:35 | 5881146 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Windows 8 isn't helping either.  Got one of them at the office.  Called the guy who does our IT work and demanded he roll it back to Win 7 Pro.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:38 | 5881157 Publicus
Publicus's picture

Intel CPU can not be trusted. Expect a 10,000 layoff from Intel shortly.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:41 | 5881179 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

These companies want to play lapdog to the USSA, they are going to feel the pain.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:48 | 5881210 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Laptops are a stagnant business. No growth there. So many servers will be on the surplus market when Silicon Valley implodes soon Intel will never sell a new server for years. Game over.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:50 | 5881196 silverer
silverer's picture

As a Mac user, I installed Windows 7 to run a Windows based tax program.  It's not a bad OS.  Don't know why Microsoft ran away from that model so quickly.  I thought they'd at least keep it and tweak it one more major time.  It's a shame.  It's the only one I think XP users could have migrated to and felt comfortable with.  It was a whole boatload better than Vista, and less demanding on the hardware.  Lots of PC users that would have liked it didn't even have a chance to try it out. Maybe NSA wanted an 'upgrade' to improve 'integration'?

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 10:22 | 5881255 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Windope 7 sucks horribly.  Windopey 8 is worse IMO

Windog 10 will be a free upgrade for both those P-OS

BTW, you do know your Mac runs on an Intel CPU, don't you?

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 10:09 | 5881284 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

My wife got a new laptop with windows 8, the first thing I noticed was no start button, WTF?

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 10:27 | 5881361 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah there is.

It's that window thingy in the lower left corner

The "Power Options" symbol to shut down is to the right of the owner icon.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 13:13 | 5882069 malek
malek's picture

Get http://classicshell.net/downloads/
It's free and I'm still using XP style Start Menu through it.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 18:11 | 5883289 Abbie Normal
Abbie Normal's picture

Or just install one of those Win7 emulator programs like Start is Back.  The look and feel of Win7 with the efficiency of Win8 (not a joke.)

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:11 | 5881058 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

shit.  wont this hurt their ability to expand (the stock price) by borrowing money to buy its own shares?  and then have negative cash flows in future years since buybacks add NOTHING to future cash flows while interest and debt still needs to be paid.  

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:42 | 5881186 seek
seek's picture

With 60% margins, they're paying for buybacks with profits. They have borrowed money, but simply put the cash on their balance sheet, I think their CFO was asked why during the earnings call a while back, and he answered that in the current interest rate environment, it was stupid not to, even if he didn't need it then, he might need it later when rates re higher.

The much bigger story here, for Intel and most industries, is that buybacks continue to be considered a better use of money  than capex -- and hidden in that is the simple message that the companies don't expect growth to return or their end markets to improve any time within the capex window, which is typically 3-5 years. Not that we don't already know this, but it's a pretty solid confirmation that the economy is dead, and will stay dead, until 2020 or later.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 10:59 | 5881497 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

Agreed

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 15:03 | 5882533 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Also Moore's law. Moore's "law" roughly states processor speeds will double, and prices will drop by half every two years. The period of shipping more devices to cover the drop in prices is over. This is why Dell is sucking so bad. When you make 5% of the deal, it gets hard when the amount you take 5% of drops by half every two years. 

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:12 | 5881060 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Who cares about earnings, the only thing that matters is buybacks.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:14 | 5881069 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

As long as buybacks are impervious to the weather the show shall continue. 

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:16 | 5881074 ZoroAustrian
ZoroAustrian's picture

Seriously.  Can someone explain to me why seemingly half the US financial sector announced buybacks and dividend hikes today?  Rats making off with the loot as quick as possible before the ship sinks.  Sickening.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:19 | 5881081 kowalli
kowalli's picture

they need to prop up market by any means, period

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:41 | 5881180 ZoroAustrian
ZoroAustrian's picture

Someone who didn't know any better would see these moves as, gasp, coordinated.

Working brilliantly so far, market above yesterday's highs and financials surging.

Ugly, ugly, ugly

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 10:05 | 5881207 kowalli
kowalli's picture

you heat oven burning 100 dollar bills. It's the same.

You could buy woods, oil or gas, but who needs real sector?


Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:15 | 5881070 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

There is a decreased demand for US technology products that contain built in NSA spyware.

[like every Intel CPU]

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:58 | 5881233 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Intel should follow Google's lead and include adware in its CPUs. How much would companies pay to have the initial boot screen show an ad for Coke or Pepsi or Trojans?

(Don't go all technical on me and complain that the BIOS controls the initial boot.)

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 11:28 | 5881592 artvandalay55
artvandalay55's picture

Source: tinfoil?

Intel wasn't ever implicated in any of the snowden NSA links.  Google, apple, microsoft etc all were

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 22:07 | 5883952 sumo
sumo's picture

Intel engineers tried to get Theodore T'so to alter the pseudo-random number generation in Linux. Intel wanted Linux to rely on Intel hardware only.

My goodness me, who on earth would want Linux to have a compromised Intel-controlled RNG, used in those complicated encrypto-thingies? I simply have no idea, honest.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:18 | 5881080 agstacks
agstacks's picture

Everyone knows businesses don't buy computers when it is cold and icy outside. 

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:19 | 5881086 Big Cox
Big Cox's picture

At least they’re not blaming it on a blizzard!

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:28 | 5881117 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Yah Big, they deserve points for that

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:20 | 5881088 crakinshot
crakinshot's picture

This is the meme you're looking for:

 

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/hHDnD62QWTU/maxresdefault.jpg

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:22 | 5881091 Tasty Sandwich
Tasty Sandwich's picture

Nothing a $200,000 pre-paid debit card issued to every American can't solve.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:29 | 5881119 venturen
venturen's picture

don't be a fool....it is $2 Billion each for select donors to Obama's retirement fund. They will then buy up all the intel production then rent the computers to pauper americans using their EBT computer allowance, they can also write off as rental income as charity the computers will also be classifed as running off renewable energy so they receive twice the value of the cost. They will also embed a bitcoin algorithim to print Bitcoins for themselves as well. You lose they win....do you know nothing!

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:36 | 5881145 Tasty Sandwich
Tasty Sandwich's picture

And you won't actually do anything about it because you're fed and entertained.

Bread and circuses, including internet comments.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:25 | 5881100 youngman
youngman's picture

Its the NSA crap.....why buy American Spy machines????

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:26 | 5881104 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Looks like they are going to have to significantly lower their prices on their chips.  If the masses can't afford McDonalds, they certainly are not going to upgrade their desktop/laptops.  

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 10:06 | 5881276 Alvin Fernald
Alvin Fernald's picture

Here is some good news about McDonalds:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p36rxQunljU

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:30 | 5881121 e_u_r_o
e_u_r_o's picture

Intel's CPU prices have been steadily growing. I bought i5-4690 for 190 euros but its now over 220. Something very fishy going on with prices, in europe atleast.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:48 | 5881206 RadioactiveRant
RadioactiveRant's picture

The Euro has lost 23% of its value against USD in the last 12 months, not sure when you made your first purchased but 190 x 1.23 = 233

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:51 | 5881221 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

And a Euro used to be worth approximately $1.40, whereas now it's $1.06 or so. Maybe that has something to do with it. Put all that i5 power to work and figure it out.

 

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 11:43 | 5881653 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Siri, how can I use all my i5 power to figure this out?

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:58 | 5881251 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

The future of computing will be driven by the lowest cost producer, which today are open source asian ARM processors running flavors of linux headed for a price of about $1.00 per CPU.

This renders Intel's business model broken in the near future by two orders of magnitude.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 11:13 | 5881524 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Blame the Jews in Haifa making the SkyLake and Broadwell CPUs.

You cant put those backdoors on a CPU for free now can you?

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:30 | 5881124 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

if you think it just began, you have not been paying attention.  Here are the profit in dollars before the Intel news: (Apple has been included and ATT booted) $$$ are in billions.

 

Dow 30 Profit ($$$)  Year        % Change(YOY)

2013                 346.633           4.44%

2014                 347.144           0.15%

2015                 334.090          -3.76%

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:32 | 5881131 venturen
venturen's picture

but if you multiply by negative interest rate bonds you get a positive! 

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:31 | 5881129 venturen
venturen's picture

But doesn't Apple need more computer power to run Itunes? 

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:55 | 5881231 silverer
silverer's picture

What you listen to becomes part of your psychological profile. Which means they can take whatever you listen to and twist it into whatever fits the narrative.  Use your imagination, because you can back out of art to mean anything you want it to mean.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:32 | 5881130 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Must have been cold and snowing everywhere around the world.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:36 | 5881152 Archetype
Archetype's picture

If INTC falls that only proves the rest of the market needs to rally, rigth? BTFD?

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:38 | 5881154 silverer
silverer's picture

This whole technology thing used to produce big productivity gains, but now I have my doubts to its future.  What does the Apple watch really do for your bottom line?  Can you even measure it? You can still run a medium sized company without using any computers.  I'm starting to model my own business to run computer and electricity free as a fallback, because the tech companies are pushing hard to make your purchases of hardware and software permanent subscription revenue producers.  Soon, your software and hardware won't even work unless you are plugged into the internet.  That's why I'm keeping my older software and the machines that run it all:  They still do everything I need to run my business, no internet connection necessary.  That's big folks.  Think about it.  The old stuff will be like gold in the future, unless you don't mind getting your wallet sucked on a monthly basis.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 10:27 | 5881360 RadioactiveRant
RadioactiveRant's picture

Open Source software is becoming increasingly useable, and you can usually avoid a hardware upgrade. Tech margins will half to GM/Ford levels in a decade.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:37 | 5881155 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

the dow is up 135 pts now.

 

EVERYTHING IS AWESOME!!!!!

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:42 | 5881184 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

This is clearly bullish. The equity markets are telling you that today.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 09:45 | 5881198 praps
praps's picture

If they decided on the conference call last night that today is a short squeeze, then a short squeeze is gonna happen no matter how bad the news.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 10:52 | 5881470 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

 

So stop building back doors into your chips then...

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 11:39 | 5881635 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

"The company believes the changes to demand and inventory patterns are caused by lower than expected Windows XP refresh..."

~That~ is unbelievable.   And telling.   I still use XP - because it just flat out works.   Imagine that - 15 years and it still gets the job done.   Meanwhile, my other machine that runs 10.6.8 (another OS that just flat out 'works'), is basically Fucked.   But I still use it...

 

 

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 12:53 | 5882000 Jano
Jano's picture

why not use ARM MLB?

I take a shit wether any chineese policeman reads my emails ( he cannot anyhow, I doubt he has my private pgp key.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 13:16 | 5882067 TalkToLind
TalkToLind's picture

Stop making commercials about how Intel powered 2 in 1 devices are approved by the TSA.  No one likes the TSA.

Thu, 03/12/2015 - 15:38 | 5882673 pitz
pitz's picture

There's just no reason for pretty much anyone these days to upgrade.  Computers delivered 4 years ago are within 10-20% of the performance of the models delivered today.  SSDs and cloud computing services prolong end-user system longevity significantly.  Unless someone comes out with a new "killer app" over the next few years, Intel is going to have increasing difficulty moving product. 

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