This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Q1 GDP Expectations Are Crashing
Despite the continuing commentary that all is well in America, economic growth expectations for Q1 just collapsed to a new cycle low. From just 4 months ago, growth expectations have been cut 20% to 2.4%... but that is still four times The Atlanta Fed's dismal 0.6% forecast...
The Atlanta Fed forecasts Q1 growth of just 0.6%...
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.6 percent on March 12, down from 1.2 percent on March 6. The nowcast for first-quarter real consumption growth fell from 2.9 percent to 2.2 percent following this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
* * *
* * *
Not "Off The Lows"
One wonders just how The Fed will wriggle out of this box...
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 16817 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
I for one am looking forward to "Recovery Summer"
Time to liquidate the Atlanta Fed for non-conformity?
The Atlanta Fed Center for Quantitative Economic Research team...
Tao Zha Executive Director, Patrick Higgins Senior Economist, Daniel Waggoner Research economist, Juan Rubio-Ramírez Visiting Research Economist, Vivian Yue Senior Research Fellow and Elaine Clokey Administrator.
That's a lot of non-conformity...
It is what it is dude..
Right? What is wrong with the Atlanta FED? Heads will roll!
Unless things turn around soon it will be "Search and Recovery Summer"...
More like search and destroy......
Green shoots of recovery will be ubiquitous this spring. I can feel it in my bone.
For Q1 we had:
1. Crashing oil prices
2. Soaring dollar
3. Earnings misses and warnings
4. Worse winter than last years polar GDP excuse
5. Soaring healthcare prices
6. No "official" QE going on
But we have share buy backs! Can that save the day?
At least the I Love Lucy reruns can be turned off.
Which Recover Summer will this be number 5?
Is that Recovery Summer 7.0?
WHO CARES! Dow is up 200. can you smell QE4 coming?
When is ZH gonna run another story of Apple being so expensive with a forward PE of 13??
The Apple Hedgefund isn't going to look so pretty when the wheels start coming off the market.
When the crash arrives, and it will, what are you going to do?
Bend over and take it, as usual.
How soon human monkeys forget the 1999-2000 NASDAQ destruction.
Bad weather this winter
That's right it snowed this winter.
/sarcasm
its the GDP saved or created, because if you like your GDP, you can keep your GDP... next stop, Utopia!
No worries because we have stimulus. 2014 FY federal deficit through February was $376.4B; 2015 FY so far is $386+ B.
where did you get that number the DailyKOS? the 2014 deficit was $483 Billion, of course that is with the off balance sheet scams at the FED, SS, etc...and lets not forget the mark to fantasy world we live in. Plus you are rescuing student who don't want to pay their loans next year...that is only trillion or two...
To clarify, it was "officially" 376+ B through February 2014. Deficit is higher year over year.
trav7777-2010
''Repayment extinguishes creditmoney. The USG is currently the only entity that is continuing to borrow to prevent mass extinguishment. This is why we should continue to expect national debt to exponentiate. It has to, otherwise as FRNs are repaid and extinguished, there will be less "money" against existing production.''
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-curse-fiat-money#comment-582...
Mr. Yellin fire up that printing press!
They need to stop reporting M2 money supply, just like they did with M3 back in 2006.
I'm glad this can't affect the price of my stawks, because that looks pretty dismal.
Its alaways darkest just before it goes completely black....
Sounds like we need to revise this formula again to account for the ever changing realities of our modern society, becuase we all know that the economy is strong. This just shows the model is flawed and some highly intelligent PhD economists needs to fix it.
Too hard. Simpler to release an initial GDP estimate that beats the forecast, then revise it downward later.
Revise it quietly.
The growth rate is meaningless when virtually all the growth accrues to the top portion of the populace.
Print baby print!
What am I missing here? If Paul Volker confirms John Williams Shadown Stats inflation number at 8-9% and the Atlanta Fed sez growth is .6% then isn't economy acutally CONTRACTING at 7.4-8.4%. WTH is going on with this BS that we have growth...thats a freaking old wives tale thats smells more like rotten fish every day..
Doesn't pretty much every stat especially gasoline consumption and Shadow Stats unemployment at 23% say this puppy is messing itself bigtime.
I think that "2.4%" number is supposed to read 1.4% Tyler.
Ed
During winter everyone stops eating, needing clothes, filling up their cars, paying utilities bills, stops going to the doctor, or buying movies or televisions. Everyone just closes their doors, stops going to work and looking for jobs, and just stays inside and does nothing. They literally stare at a wall until spring, and economic activity grinds to a halt because its simply too cold out to spend money.
Fuck the narrative.
That was good!