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Retail Sales Crumble, Suffer Worst Run Since Lehman
Earlier today we warned readers that based on actual credit card spending data, today's retail sales data would continue the worst trend since Lehman...
Ahead of today's retail sales report, BofA found February sales ex autos and gas to be weakest since Jan 2014 http://t.co/qrgVkNkUsa
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 12, 2015
... and sure enough that's what happened: moments ago the Commerce department reported that in February, retail sales missed once again and missed big and across the board, the third big miss in a row, with the headline print coming at -0.6%, far below the 0.3% expected, and in line with the -0.8% drop last month. Putting the headline numbers in context: December -0.9%, January -0.8%, February -0.6%. Surely a great time for the Fed to hike.
Excluding the volatile autos and gas, sales dropped once again, sliding -0.2%, below the 0.3% expected - in fact below the lowest estimate - and worse even than last month's downward revised -0.1% decline. And with that the worst run in retail sales since Lehman is now in the record books.
How the Fed's rate-hike "reaction function" responds to this data is up to Yellen.
And now we expect economists who once again were completely clueless to suddenly remember that, oh wait, it did snow in February - the same month in which they were setting their forecasts for the month, and that all those forecasts were really off because they had no idea, no idea, it snowed at the time.
As previously reported, the subrpime auto loan bonanza is over, and sure enough, Autos led the February drop, although as the chart below shows, there is still a long way down for Y/Y auto sales data to catch down to trend:
The breakdown in sales shows a decline in most major categories, with the drop most acute in autos (-2.5%) and building materials (-2.3%), but declines were also reported in furniture, food and drinking, health and personal and general merchandise sales. In short - pretty much most places expect internet sales which rose 2.2%, and sporting goods sales which saw a 2.3% increase.
Finally, the all important control group which plugs into the GDP calculation posted an unchanged, 0.0% print, with the previous revised from 0.1% to -0.1%. It was expected to rise 0.4%.
Expect a slew of downward Q1 GDP forecast revisions to start within moments, as every highly-paid sell-side economist realizes what we said last week: that the Atlanta Fed's 1.2% Q1 GDP forecast (a number which will now be revised even lower) will prove to be spot on, if not overly optimistic.
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Shit sandwich
I blame debt. Lots and lots of personal debt.
Nahh... All the millennials are too busy tweeting and face booking to buy shit
trav7777
''Usury mathematically leads to bankruptcy and liquidation. Once the machine of geometric compounding is set into motion, there is a very short window to get out, after which it CANNOT be stopped and will proceed to its final, foredestined outcome''
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/zuckerman-loses-it-releases-most-scathing-criticism-obama-yet-most-fiscally-irresponsible-go#comment-548238
Man I miss those days. No wonder the Tylers got noticed by a select few.
trav7777, one of the best ever here on these pages.....I never met anyone who knew so much about synthetic debt.......
In the meantime the market decided to have one bad day this week, followed by several good days trying to regain what was lost and a total media fuckfest over the rally following the selloff culminating with Fantastic Friday.
Just buy the UVXY on up days and sell on red days. Been working really well the past 3 months.
Take profits, stack, buy ammo, land, and seeds.
Numbers are irrelevant. The Fed has our back. I think they may be holding a knife to it.
Surely a great time for the Fed to hike.
bwa ah ah! good one. the first thing i do is look at the ffr before i make a cc purchase /s
OT: But a very good read.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/03/eu-increasingly-abandons-obama-uk...
Everything is awesome!
I did my part. I bought a $3.99 used book on Amazon last month because my local library didn't have it. So there.
Remember folks, you have to spend money to avoid bankruptcy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHFEcyUNBjg
Biden is truly a retard
our library is in a book lending program. If they don't have a book, they can get it from another library... for free.
You don't even need to spend 3.99. You might need that cash someday.
BTW, you get an upvote for the Biden video. He's Obama's life insurance policy. Ain't nobody gonna shoot the pres when you've got a retard as a replacement.
Sitting in an English garden
waiting for the sun
Waiting for the sun in England..could take a long long time...
The bottom 80%, if not borrowing, can't spend what they aren't earning in wages.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-11/mystery-americas-missing-wage-g...
Central bank wars... huh... yeah!
What are they good for?
Financial repression!
Uhuh.. Uhuh..
Stawks up on this news btfd at all times
Futures like this miss a lot
I'm a big ZH fan, but Tyler - Seriously - can't you write a headline without referring to "Since Lehman" -
come on -
Since the last time the Phillies won the world series.
good one -
Oct 29th - The Philadelphia Phillies defeat the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 of the 2008 World Series to become champions of Major League Baseball.
Nov 4th - Barack Obama becomes the first African-American to be elected President of the United States
^^ (can we refer to this as a "black day in american history" ?)
http://www.historyorb.com/events/date/2008
I like "Since Dick Fulded"
QE4...QE4...QE4....We WANT MOAR!
The rise in the dollar's value isn't being caused by reductions in debt.
That's bad news for dollar worshipers.
Summer Recovery version 7 coming up! Trust us. It'll work this time.
People are tapped out. In my freight hauling business, freght is down 1/3 since before X-mas. My Obamacare penalty was 500 which offsets any yearly gain I might have had from cheaper oil on a personal basis. I honestly don't know how people have been making it this far.
Gubmint Cheeeeese bitches
Free Shit Army! "Make" yourself poor and join up! Assets, what assets?
Economy sucks, BUY MORTIMER, BUY!
Must be that cold weather again aye?
Yes it must be the cold weather driving oil consumption and pushing up oil prices so much....
In my attempt to collect as many down-votes as humanly possible, I can see how the weather would have had an affect on retail sales, especially last month.
Consider the millions of people who couldn't even get out of their front door for a few days at a time, let alone drive to a furniture store or automobile dealership to buy something. Or even make it to a gas station, if it was even open for business.
But myopism is an American trait, along with "us vs. them" in nearly everything we do/say/think. So...
We are on the verge of another 2008 experience, they just don't want to know it.
Because they never see anything coming. The Fed drives the economy via rearview mirrors only.
The cheifs of police, nationwide, wanted to ban the rear view mirror when it was invented. Police said they needed to sneak up on folks.
... makes perfect sense that retail stocks are getting ramped up on bad news ... new normal.
I get to pay $700 for a reverse backflow valve for my connection to the public water supply. Then I have the privilege of getting it inspected every couple of years ($50-100). Have had a private well for years and now all of a sudden it's a risk to the public water supply even though they cannot come up with one example of a well causing loss of life or injury to any public water system in the last hundred years.
Lobbying of the Federal, State and local EPA parasites apparently pays well, especially for the plumbers. Due to this, I have decided to not purchase anything other than necessities for the next couple of years as payback to this system of fraud, payoffs and bribes,,, was thinking of a new auto and some furniture for the Mrs.
I won't even mention what I had to pay the federalies. Lets just say it will fund a few 'refunds' for others. There went the new computer system, and washer/dryer... Yea,, the parasites can't figure out where the prob is...
This is cuzzah all you racists not wanting to go into debt and buy shit you dont need to show your love of and support for POSident Obama. And cuzzah the snow in winter. And cuzzah the dog that shat in my yard.
Someday, soon, "they" will add sales of used materials, cars, clothing, computers, cell phones, you know, all that stuff they sell on Ebay, Craigslist, etc. This will boost the numbers!
"Used Retail Market" will save us I am telling you! THEN we will have great numbers.
Surprised that hasn't already happened. Heck, they tax you on the purchase of used cars, or used merchandise purchased through pawn shop or thrift store.
Why buy new anyway? Other than personal stuff like underwear, because just ick.
People generally have this habit of only buying new when they don't have the equivalent item, or they did have it and it stopped functioning. So we are sold on how we "need" new gee wiz gadgets and OTOH items we really need are made worse and worse so they stop functioning and need to be replaced as soon as possible.
Might as well let someone else take the hit in depreciation and buy used. It will likely work as well and last as long as a new one, and may work better and last longer.
Best example I know is washer and dryers. Used to be made of metal and got your clothes clean with agitation and hot water if you wanted. Now mostly made of plastic and by law are made with tubs that only partially fill and have sensors to keep the water from being really hot.
Stocks up on bad news.
Stocks up on good news.
What a piece of crap.
I'd love to short some stocks via option puts, but I know I'll just get my ass handed to me. I also can't buy any stocks since they're already at all-time highs. Ya know, buy low, sell high.
I'd buy more silver and/or gold, but the chances of them going even lower than they are now are significant, so I might as well wait.
I have tons of cash and even more oodles of credit (CC companies keep throwing 12 and 18 month 0% interest rate deal my way).
Leaves me with the final option. Cruise porn on the internet all day and jack off. However, my hand is sore and my dick is getting worn out. Great country, America.
Even getting drunk and high every afternoon has lost its luster.
I have been formally trained to analyze stocks and futures contracts.
I haven't picked a winner in years.
I stick to the tangible now (phyzz and cash), I'm even taking a beating on that.
The world is upside down to me, I feel like I'm taking Crazy Pills, even cash is not a sure thing anymore.
Guess food and liquor are the only things I can squirrel away that I know I will never get QE'd out of.
the more I read ZH. I put you in the camp on max keser. he said this about 4 years ago "Buy silver crash jpm" in reality buy silver crash yourself. In your need for content. you put out stories with little on no substance. example "a .06 drop in expect increase." just BS I've been hoping for the crash for 7 years now. and it's still not here.
the crash has been happening for 7 years, you're just waiting for the fireworks :-) coming soon to a living room near you
Grasp what Keiser said before you denounce it. It was a situational statement not plan of action. His research was how short JPM was on silver contracts. Take physical off the market and if called on it they lose. It wasnt going to actually happen, just sensationally proposed.
And if you are hoping for the crash, I am not sure you grasp that either.
So don't buy silver.
AND, anyone hoping for a crash must be independently wealthy and not in need of work. Hence, I reason that you must be a parasitic .01%er.
You are persona non grata here.
Or have I drawn the wrong conclusions from your little rant?
I see words like plummet, crumble etc. then I see percentages at less than 1%
Am I missing something here?
I think it is a cumulative Month-over-Month thing. I.E. it was already in the crapper, another 1% drop shows that it hasn't stabilized yet, still getting worse.
A 0.1% decrease is a "crash" here at ZH. :o)
I absolutely love ZH, but it drives me nuts when phrases like "-0.8% drop," "sliding -0.2%," and "-0.1% decline" appear. Since these are all double-negatives, you get (respectively) a 0.8% increase, a 0.2% increase, and a 0.1% increase.
Maybe it's just me, but simply leaving off the plus or minus makes for clarity; i.e. "a 0.8% drop."