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The Ignorance Is Bliss Market (Summed Up In 1 Simple Chart)
The "Rational" Expectations Circular Reference Flowchart guide to today's market meme...
Via Jeffrey Snider of Alhambra Investment Partners,
"Worst Since 2009" Or "Same As Last Year"
It seems to me as if there is growing nervousness in the otherwise unshakable cadre of economic commentators over the fact the economy so far in 2015 is not behaving. This is undoubtedly more than just the price of oil and the constant blurt of supply, supply, supply – in fact, oil prices no longer dominate much of the chatter as if “everyone” has finally made peace with the reality, if not fully the implications. Even the idea that the unemployment rate might be wholly misleading is simply too much to comprehend, so that everything else is rationalized inside that context.
The Bloomberg ECO U.S. Surprise Index, which measures whether data beat or miss forecasts, fell to the lowest since 2009, when the nation was in the deepest recession since the Great Depression.
To that end, there is now widespread recognition that the economy is taking a breather because trying to describe otherwise is no longer reasonable; and thus a rush to ensure and assure that such is nothing out of the ordinary. Indeed, apparently this year is almost the same as last year; a point which will be the dominant theme for the remaining alacrity of whatever is left of last year’s unequivocal “boom.”
The Atlanta Fed published a tracking forecast for GDP in the first quarter, and that was halved to 0.6 percent after the retail report.
If this all seems vaguely familiar, pretty much the same thing happened last year.
Then, a contraction in the first quarter that most everyone blamed on the weather was followed by two blockbuster quarters with GDP averaging 4.8 percent.
There it is, the assured nature that even a negative quarter is nothing to fret because last time “blockbuster” GDP immediately followed. It’s the weather again, so the sunshine will bring economic sunshine even if last year’s didn’t actually create the sustainable advance these same commentators were likewise so sure it would. There is a flipside to this exact attempted validation, and it isn’t so sunny. Instability in the economy thwarts all such notions of “blockbuster” growth because, axiomatically, instability is a highly negative factor that accompanies malfunction and malaise rather than the opposite and desired condition. Recoveries might be bumpy here and there, but they don’t pause every winter in worsening fashion.
That aside, however, there is much about this year that is far and away beyond last year. This includes many raw economic accounts that are far worse than the 2014’s Polar Vortices, but mainly that credit markets, the aforementioned oil collapse and the “dollar” are all market confirmations of the crucial difference between this year and last. There is also the small matter of the domestic banking system acting completely contrary to these assumed accepted notions of everything becoming rock solid, carrying out these fears in dramatic and rather obvious ways. Instability has a way of taking these forms, and continued instability only assures that the pessimism propagates widely.
The phrase “worst since 2009” has supplanted “like last year” in far too many places, not to mention that this was not supposed to happen again anyway. There is apparently nothing so much like the regularity of “unexpected” weakness to motivate everyone toward the most optimistic interpretation of really bad and concerning trends. Even a good proportion of stock prices have stopped buying it and started paying attention to the sharp and very much relevant distinctions.
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Again.
1) Eat Food
2) Poop It
3) Eat your own poop
4) Digest and poop that poop again.
5) Now, eat THAT poop
etc etc.
...If obama can forgive all African American held mortgages, student & credit card debt, plus double their minimum wage, then we will have real democratic freedom.
Delusion has no ends. If you lie long enough to yourself you will believe. Welcome to the self-deluded society.
Have you ever seen the movie 'They Live'?
I highly recommend it as a primer in the teaching of those who are struggling to understand the reality that they are becoming aware of, just under the surface of what is generally considered to be 'the real world'. Of course, it's a work of 'fiction'; and the ending leaves much to be desired.
'Tragedy And Hope Communications' might be considered as an advanced grade 'primer'.
Mankind (as a whole) is deluded, though.
The Mechanics Of The Chinese Gold Market https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/the-mechanics-of-the-chine...
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... http://goo.gl/ezLA00
Propaganda and Perceptions Management.
Everything's fine. Back to sleep.
There will be no rate increase. This sham of the upcoming rate increase has been going on since 2011. Everytime they say next year.
Any normalisation of rates needs to have a normal functioning economy with limited debt. We have abnormally high debt levels in US and an impaired economy. Most people dont have jobs, or the pensioners and elderly are stumped as to why their incomes dropped to zero with zero zero interest rates. Thus, almost no one except a few million workers (out of 350m population) who could not be shipped to China still have some jobs...and never forget the below low wage workers of Wal Mart, McDonalds or Burger King or the mall stores for that matter. Whatever high paying jobs were left, post the banking collapse, in the energy sector have been taken away in the last 6 months.
If rates rise, China and Japan will receive more money as interest payments. US cannot afford to pay higher interest rates and billions flowing out of its economy.
hear hear . dubb bankr mera reply pd lena china cracking wale post pr and jawab de dena . thnx .
If the FED's game is to create a managed inflation in order to correct the nominal Debt to GDP ratio, then "raising interest rates" will indeed be used as a tool. It was done back in the 1970's into 1980 by Paul Volker's predeceasor, as a means of fueling inflation. How this "helps" create inflation, is to created a small amount of inflation, then slowly raise interest rates but which actually support and inspire even more inflation. What this does is make gaming financials a positive re-enforcer of the growing inflation machine. They keep interest rates too low, following inflations rates up. As both inflation and lagging interest rates rise together they re-enforce the rising inflation mechanism. This, then, raises noiminal prices at the same time as nominal debt accumulation slows proportionally, so nominal Debt to GDP goes down to about 100-140%, where it is "sustainable".
At least that is what they did back then. They may think they can pull the same rabbit out of their hat to right this pig. I have my doubts.
After "fighting inflation" for a period of time (which is a ruse), they will then bring in a super hawk like Volker who will crush the economy with 20% interest rates again. Maybe. We shall see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5y68ErffgM yep, I know.
I'm going to have another boating accident.
Gold Bitchez.....I pick up pennies
Ouroboros economy!
It just requires eating the middle class tail to feed the Wall Street head!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ouroboros
The economy is not taking a breather, the "recovery" is taking a breather.
You must learn betterer doublespeak.
Circular arguments work because circular arguments work
http://www.stopthecrime.net/docs/Report_from_Iron_Mountain.pdf
REPORT FROM IRON MOUNTAIN: ON THE POSSIBILITY AND DESIRABILITY OF PEACE With introductory material by Leonard C. Lewin The Dial Press, Inc. 1967, New York Library of Congress Catalog card Number 67-27553 Printed in the U.S.
BADASS!
I have this one saved on my 'favorites', along with a video put out in the days of VCR's (made in 1993).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY2VQtGgAJA
thanks for the great links,
this seems to fall into the category
of psy-op on the intellectual level.
perhaps the project was an intelligence
study in consensus building from the
start. i have to watch the flick.
.
the term "self licking ice cream cone"
keeps repeating in a circular fashion,
lbj had his war on poverty, then ,
the war on drugs, then the war on terrorism
with many in between, skirmishes on other
things, all circular self licking ice cream
cones to establish the heir arch of social
control, money control to direct the attention of the many (to)
behave, produce or consume in the good war
like manner. industrially prescribed for
predictable social cohesion. top down
control, with no legitimacy in fact.
.
now, the culture drips with militarism for
naked economic and psychological mining of
the souls of the innocent youth.
they know not what they do ..............
they are creating an unforgiving realm. imho
In the NORTHERN hemisphere, when the bowl is flushed, it swirls CLOCKWISE. In the SOUTHERN hemisphere, it swirls ANTICLOCKWISE ('COUNTERCLOCKWISE').
In BOTH hemispheres, the bowl sends the water and the shit and the piss, and the paper used to wipe the privates, down the drains to the sewers or the leechfields. it's a CIRCULAR SINGULARITY DUALITY thingie, I guess.
Up in space, though, the shit just seems to float around. The ideas of those who plan our demise are working in the sphere outside of the natural one (for humans). THAT is why their shit floats, and everyone else's seems to go down with the 'big flush'. It's all made up, though (kind of like 'cyberspace' is).
Circles and squares. I'm old enough to remember when the squares had four sides; all of them having an origin point, a vector, and a termination point (all of even length; meeting at a specific point in space at a 90 degree included vector in the same angular direction). THEY started to call them 'round-tables' a LONG time ago (like fucking astronauts do). THEY are trying to put a round peg in a square hole.
Is this comment 'too esoteric'? Try dealing with this in MORE than two dimensions...
Bloomberg finally published the Atlanta Fed 0.6 GDP number.
They commented that the REAL numbers look so bad because we are comparing them with forecasted numbers that ere too high. Seriously - that is how they described ALL the pathetic Q 1 numbers.