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Homebuilder Sentiment Tumbles To October Lows (and No, It's Not The Weather)
Homebuilder Sentiment tumbled for the 2nd month to October lows, missing expectations for the 3rd month in a row, as buyer traffic and sales expectations both fell. The weather-crushed Midwest saw sentiment surge from 48 to 61 and the sun-soaked home-sales-destroyingly warm West region saw sentiment collapse from 64 to 53.
Lowest since October...
It's not the weather...
Charts: Bloomberg
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No demand
They are trying any and every gimmick to get foot traffic through model homes to no avail.
Watch out you might get what you're after
Cool baby strange but not a stranger
I'm an ordinary guy
Burning down the house
This lets you know where we came from and where we're going.
They are in the final round of "whose the biggest fool" and the competition is fierce.....
I was driving through my town yesterday (San Diego suburb) and I saw at least 20 open house signs. Other than the 1%, and remarkably dumb, nobodys buying any of their shit anymore. They all just sits there with no comps to compare.
um hum
Worst since October? Pffft. Call me when it's the Worst Since LehmanTM.
+1
you win for applying the Superscript
My daughter is still trying for a house in the Bay Area. Saw a decent place, 3/2 1400 sf listed for 620K. Offered 650 but it went for 730. Some places aren't quite cold yet.
Bay Area is unique and probably always will be. Not easy there.
Parks, Wine Country, No Growth Groups had kept the supply tight historically.
The change of ownership is the primary reason for the pause, Brown told the Chronicle, noting the private company "can afford to take a longer-term view" than publicly traded AmREIT. However, the drop in oil prices and its effect on Houston's real estate market is another factor.
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/03/new-owner-hits-p...
This buyer/owner evidently has never lived through one of those Houston downturns/depressions. He'll get a hard lesson soon it seems.
Water bill going up.
I lived in the bay area from 1999-2004 and still go back regularly to visit friends. It is even more frenzied this time than in the original 1999/2000 bubble. I think your daughter would be very wise to be patient and not chase this market....
Bullish for the market. Wow what happened to this year. Onevmight wonder if all this bad news is pnoney so they can justify QE5 or is it 6
Whatever man. Prices here in Northern Virginia are through the roof even in the low end parts of town. Houses sell in days if they are halfway decent. We've been looking for 3 months with absolutely ZERO luck. EVERYTHING is 400k or more that's halfway decent...and climbing. Except for my old neighborhood where I was underwater for 5 years and dropped 70% from peak in 2 years. Of course that neighborhood to this day is still stagnant.
There's never a recession in the DC area.
The DC area is in perpetual recession.
A model for the rest of the country.
Competing with Detroit for shit hole status.
my neighbor is selling their 4 bedroom for $1.169 Million - want the Realtor name?
is it under 2000sf?
my bad -
5 br / 5 bath. 5300 sq ft
I will take it....5300 sq ft might be the cost of the land by me...wait is it in NJ and the property tax are $75k?
Same here in central/N Jersey.
And the further north you go, including NYC Price and demand is thru the roof.
The last hoorah I guess..
Several stories last week in the growth of wages in management / executive employees
Reston / Herndon has property in your range.
No they don't in my price range. SFH only. No attached housing again. Got my ass handed to me before when the illegals swooped into the hood and made my life miserable for 8 years.
Should have changed your name to Paul Kersey.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9R389kyfYE
they need higher home prices so they can take bigger credit.... People will live without home soon, ghosts cities
oh wait
Graph of the growth of government workers in the greater DC area and home prices reveals:
Patience.
Blue light special coming to a neighborhood near you soon....
Your old neighborhood? Let me guess - South Riding? Manassas Park?
Suzanne is fired up and hitting the phones hard after this print. But no worries, she's still researching this! &!#@*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPIxrzmatq0
+1000
John lost his IT job at HP to a H1B visa Indian.
The wife is a bookeeper at a car dealership.
John is depressed and gaining more weight from the Prozac.
The kids are growing up in front of the television.
A typical American family.
Make sure you pay the mortgage on time.
Sentiment can simply be fixed with another round of QE.
It is so the weather. October was snowy as hell.
Shackbuilders are optimistic about the future.
Your gonna need a bigger bounce.
But the Philly Housing Index monthly is off multi year highs
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/monthly-philly-housing-index-closes-8-e...
Yellen is buying housing stocks too - the Fed isn't satisfied with just AAPL and AMZN.
Open up your books Yellen - let's see what you've done.
houses in Las Vegas are still cheap...but not for long
www.ViewLasVegasRealEstate.com
A gallon of water is going to cost you an ounce of gold.
Don't buy a house you moron.
An Indian with a H1B visa is about to take your job.
Copper prices? Sure, I guess, though my wire-and-pipe needs are few and don't ask me to track that price too closely. Being a DIYer, I make fairly frquent trips to Home Depot. The easiest metric for me - as far as the state of the sprawl-building industry goes, is the retail cost of a sheet of 7/16" OSB. It's right there by the front door, and it's cost is easy to check as I pass through on my way to wherever I'm going in the store. Poulsbo, Washington store.
In the depths of the 2008-2009 panic, the cost sank to $6.50 or so. It rose up to almost $14 in the 'recovery', but as of yesterday a little above $8, so I guess that gives you some idea of how the regional Home Depot price coordinator feels about the worth of his inventory...
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/03/crude-oil-tumble...
Budget for higher water bills if you live along the west coast.
Factor it into your budgets before you buy any real property.
You've been warned.