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As Israel Votes, Meet The "Anyone But Bibi" Coalition

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Israelis will elect a new parliament March 17. As Goldman notes, this early election was triggered by tensions within the government:

PM Benjamin Netanyahu has governed Israel for nine years (1996-1999 and 2009-present), making him Israel’s second-longest-serving prime minister (only behind David Ben-Gurion; 13 years). In the latest 2013 election, PM Netanyahu’s center-right Likud party joined forces with right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu and became the largest party within the Knesset, winning 31 of the 120 seats (20 were members of Likud and 11 of Yisrael Beiteinu). While this represented a meaningful fall from the combined 42 seats the two parties won at the 2009 election, it still allowed PM Netanyahu to form a majority coalition together with Yesh Atid, the Jewish Home and Hatnuah (68 seats in total).

 

This broad collation, however, turned out to be fairly unstable due to disagreements on various topics. For example, the alliance between Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu was dissolved on July 9, 2014, following disagreements over how Israel should respond to the rocket fire from Gaza. And on December 2, 2014, PM Netanyahu fired the Finance Minister (Yair Lapid; leader of Yesh Atid) and the Minister of Justice (Tzipi Livni; leader of Hatnuah) following disagreements over the budget (e.g., the zero-VAR proposal from Lapid) and a ‘Jewish state’ proposal. On the same day (December 2, 2014), Likud announced it would support a dissolution bill with a vote scheduled for December 8. This was passed with a vote of 93-0 in the third reading. Early elections for the twentieth Knesset will be held on Tuesday, March 17.

As WaPo notes, the main contest pits the right-wing Likud party of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against a surprisingly strong challenge from the Zionist Union, a center-left political alliance led by Isaac Herzog of the Labor party. Polls place Herzog's bloc ahead of Likud, but that's no guarantee of victory.

 

Since Israel's first election in 1949, no single party has ever won an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset, the name for the Israeli parliament. That means smaller political parties -- and there are 26 in total -- play a significant role in shaping the ruling coalition that forms the Israeli government after the ballots get counted.

There is a high degree of political fragmentation in Israel.

 

This is illustrated by the fact that the two biggest parties (Likud and the Zionist Union) could get far less than half the votes in the election (47 seats according to the latest poll). There is the nationalist right-wing party appealing to Russian speakers (Yisrael Beiteinu), a united list representing the one-fifth of Israeli citizens who are Arabs (Arab Joint List), and a party supporting the squeezed middle class (Yesh Atid). There are also four religious parties (The Jewish Home, Shas, UTJ and Yachad), for Jews of European versus Middle Eastern descent and for varying degrees of nationalism. Then there is Meretz – a secular left-wing social-democratic political party – that emphasises a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Finally, there is Kulanu led by Moshe Kahlon that focuses on economic and cost-of-living issues.

 

Mr. Kahlon is a former member of Likud and served as Minister of Communications and Minister of Welfare & Social Services. Notably, during his time as Minister of Communications, he was widely credited with leading the "Cellular Revolution" in Israel, that allowed new competitors to enter the cellular communications market and which lowered prices significantly.

 

One implication of the political fragmentation is that there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the next coalition (even when the election outcome is known).

Unlike in some other parliamentary democracies, Israelis don't vote for a specific geographic constituency: Rather, they vote for a slate of candidates represented by a party or coalition of parties.

And here is The FT's projected Knesset...

 

While there are 26 or so smaller parties, as The FT reports, there appears to be three possible scenarios for Israel’s next coalition...

1. The “anyone but Bibi” coalition

 

Mr Herzog has urged voters to give his party at least 30 seats — the quarter of the Knesset he says he needs to govern effectively. Little wonder: his party has fewer natural allies in the legislature than Likud.

 

The Zionist Union’s easiest partner would be the small, leftwing Meretz. Others include the parties of Mr Lapid and Mr Kahlon; the two Orthodox Jewish parties might be persuaded to join the centre-left. This combination would yield 64 seats, based on the Yedioth poll. Mr Herzog could also turn to rightwing foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, although it would sit awkwardly with Meretz.

 

It is also unclear whether Meretz and Yisrael Beiteinu, hovering near the 3.25 per cent minimum threshold, will make it into the Knesset at all.

 

Another potential kingmaker for the centre-left is the Joint List, the new unified Arab party projected to come third. Mr Herzog could approach them seeking explicit support or at least tacit backing to block a rightwing government. Ayman Odeh, the party’s leader, says he will not join a coalition with any “Zionist” party but has hinted there are conditions in which he would give a centre-left government support.

 

2. Netanyahu returns

 

When observing how closely polls are tracking, Israelis see a parallel with the 2009 vote. This worries leftwingers and gives conservatives hope.

 

In that election, Tzipi Livni, then head of the centrist party and Mr Herzog’s running mate in Zionist Union this year, won one more Knesset seat than Likud. However, the then president Shimon Peres concluded Mr Netanyahu was better placed to form a government and handed the task to him. This was the first time in Israeli history that a second-place party went on to lead government.

 

Mr Netanyahu’s Likud may be flagging in the polls and internally demoralised, but it still has more natural allies than Mr Herzog can command. They include Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home, the religious parties and Mr Lieberman, Likud’s former partner. Mr Netanyahu has also offered the popular Mr Kahlon the finance ministry, although he has not committed to take it.

 

There is a lot of bad blood between Mr Netanyahu and Mr Lapid from the last administration but a joining of the two in government cannot be ruled out. A coalition of this type could get 73 seats.

 

3. A grand coalition

 

Israeli media carried unsourced reports at the weekend that Mr Rivlin could seek to facilitate a unity government as the vote was unlikely to hand clear victory to either side.

 

The reports should be taken sceptically, at least until the election, with both Mr Netanyahu and Mr Herzog saying they do not want a unity government.

 

Israeli Labour Party leader and co-leader of the Zionist Union list for the upcoming general election, Isaac Herzog gives a speech during a debate on economy on March 11, 2015 in the costal Israeli city of Tel Aviv. Six days before Israel votes in a snap general election, the centre-left Zionist Union opened a lead of several points over the ruling rightwing Likud party, a poll showed.

 

However, it is also worth remembering that Mr Herzog has said he does not want to be “blackmailed” by smaller parties. He is a pragmatist who has served as minister under rightwing prime ministers — including Mr Netanyahu — before.

 

The Israeli right and left pulled together in a unity government in 1967 when the country faced a major security crisis around the Six Day War. In 1984, leftist Mr Peres and rightist Yitzhak Shamir joined forces in response to an economic crisis, rotating the premiership after two years.

 

Mr Herzog, whom Mr Netanyahu belittles by using his nickname “Buji”, has promised to rotate the premiership to his running mate Ms Livni after two years. On the campaign trail, he has brushed off speculation about a unity government, saying he wants a solid centre-left bench.

 

Still, instead of “Tzipi and Buji”, Israel could well get “Buji and Bibi”. “It always makes sense for big parties to go together,” says Yehuda Benmeir, senior fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “This limits the ability of small parties to blackmail them and get advantage beyond their numbers.”

*  *  *

In Goldman's view, Moshe Kahlon may hold the decisive vote (especially for the markets)

This discussion has highlighted that Moshe Kahlon – leader of the newly founded Kulanu party – may become the decisive factor in the next government. Based on the most recent poll, both a left-wing and a right-wing government would likely need his support to form a coalition.

 

Mr. Kahlon has stated previously that he wishes to become the new Finance Minister, and given his unique position, it seems plausible that both sides may offer him this position.

 

Mr. Kahlon has stated a desire to improve competitiveness in the banking sector, and thereby reduce fees and other financial service-related costs. This could be similar to what he did to the telecom sector when he was Minister of Communications. If so, it could mean a potential reduction in consumer price inflation in the medium term. As this type of deflationary pressure derives from structural factors that are unrelated to domestic demand, it is not clear that the BoI will respond to this scenario. Still, given the currently very low headline inflation and depressed inflation expectations, it may be challenging to ignore these pressures for the central bank as it potentially risks de-anchoring inflation expectations.

*  *  *

Finally, if all that is too complicated, here is one "guide" from The Times of Israel's Benji Lovitt ( @Benjilovitt )

 

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Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:15 | 5895745 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

If only Israel had an Obama to offer Israelis change they could believe in.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:19 | 5895753 HonkyShogun
HonkyShogun's picture

True. They'll just have to settle for owning 100 US Senators instead.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:29 | 5895779 BlackChicken
BlackChicken's picture

Who gives a crap who wins there?

We will just keep giving them money, and weapons.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:41 | 5895812 EnglishMajor
EnglishMajor's picture

The powers that be need to get their shit under control there like they have it here. Two choices, that's it.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 21:01 | 5896201 Lore
Lore's picture

How does any of this address the need for a purge of deranged ideologues and psychopaths?  

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 21:21 | 5896264 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Potential plan.

Buy 100 AMERICAN MADE (like it matters anymore) Israeli flags.

Use said flags to wipe ass with and piss on after taking a shit.

 

Plan COULD be averted if BIBI looses.

 

Baby killing mother fuckers.

 

RIPS

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 21:41 | 5896363 Lore
Lore's picture

Silly and tasteless.  How do your toilet habits make the slightest difference?  (BTW, most flags are made in China.) 

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:31 | 5895789 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

The israeli parliament only determines methodology, so nothing will change realistically. Bibi will be ousted as his hardliner stance doesn't work. I expect far more propaganda once he's out.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 19:55 | 5895982 Arthur Schopenhauer
Arthur Schopenhauer's picture

Ahem. Didn't you mean 47 senators?

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 23:00 | 5896681 HonkyShogun
HonkyShogun's picture

No. All 100. I think that was for show. Put a real vote up and see how they grovel.

 

Great moniker, btw.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:21 | 5895761 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Ahem...shekels you can believe in.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:21 | 5895762 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Eat your peas!

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 23:31 | 5896795 chilli sauce
chilli sauce's picture

my roomate's step-mother makes $79 hourly on the laptop . She has been fired for 10 months but last month her pay was $18694 just working on the laptop for a few hours. see here... www.globe-report.com

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 03:54 | 5897179 zhandax
zhandax's picture

That old whore again?  Shouldn't you be paying to get your shit in the side columns I block?  Tyler, blatant revenue leak here!

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:17 | 5895750 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Look what voting for the lesser evil got America,,, the slightly lesser evil.

 

Oh, well...

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 02:51 | 5895755 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

Anybody but a cheesepope! (ABC Party)

 

"I'm sorry I had a fight in the middle of your Cheesepope Party"

~Forrest_Gump

 

Maybe they'd consider a Kenyan mulatto candidate to help solve the apartheid problem.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:20 | 5895760 blindman
blindman's picture

"Benjamin Netanyahu was meeting in at Finks bar in Jerusalem, a well-known Mossad watering-hole. Here is what he said as taken directly from the transcript of the recording which was witnessed and has been 100% fully authenticated:

“If we get caught they will just replace us with persons of the same cloth. So it doesn’t matter what you do, America is a Golden Calf and we will suck it dry, chop it up, and sell it off piece by piece until there is nothing left but the World’s biggest welfare state that we will create and control. Why? Because it’s god’s will and America is big enough to take the hit so we can do it again, again and again. This is what we do to countries that we hate. We destroy them very slowly and make them suffer for refusing to be our slaves.”"
p.j.
.
The Hidden History of the Incredibly Evil Khazarian Mafia (Updated)
Posted by Preston James, Ph.D on March 8, 2015
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/03/08/the-hidden-history-of-the-incred...
.
these are not muslims, christians or jews; they are organized monetary
and fiscal criminals of many races defying the people who seek basic
and essential, simple and intelligent civilized governance and the
liberty and power that sovereignty demands. they are the enemies of
truth, freedom and responsibility.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:40 | 5895808 iofera
iofera's picture

"100% fully authenticated" to the Zeroes' satisfaction.

Wow, that's rich. Did mama have any children that lived, Bob?

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:50 | 5895827 blindman
blindman's picture

i feel your sentiment, bob.
then look at bibi's record and
the history of the Us / Israeli
relationship regarding money, central
banking/the us liberty/and pnac.
never forget apac, the bushes, bin ladens
and dov zacheim(9/11)silverstein mash up.
some children lived, some were murdered.
i cant' forget the murdered ones. bob

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 05:17 | 5897240 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

Why cant you just confirm it rather than beating the bushes?

Pnac? The US Liberty? Fine, how does that confirm Netanyahu's saying?

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 16:48 | 5899648 blindman
blindman's picture

it, pnac, us liberty, apac etc. doesn't confirm the statement or quote
but is consistent with the statement. i have no idea if there is
a recording of this statement. merely passing along a published
and linked source for the claim. at that source there was no
link to an actual recording of the statement. p.j., the author of
the linked piece may have such a recording or copy? or, he may
have taken the transcription on what he considers a reliable source?
i linked it because it is inflammatory and direct and not inconsistent
with what i perceive mr. bibi to be. a crook, a thug and
a murdering psychopath who has claimed his pride in this life as
a champion of all that, achieving power by terrorizing his own
flock so to speak. the kind of man who brings out the worst
in humanity. standard fare that sells itself as leadership today.
imho,
a large part of why we are doom-ed.

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 13:52 | 5898864 Jameson18
Jameson18's picture

By the way that same thing was written in the early 1930's German newpaper about Germany.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:25 | 5895769 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture
Netanyahu: “A Danger to Israel”, say 200 Israeli Military and Security Veterans

The group comprises retired officers and those serving in the reserves, all of whom held a rank equivalent to general. Many are household names.

Yaron Ezrahi, a politics professor at Hebrew University and expert on Israeli-US relations, said there was no precedent for what he termed a “rebellion” by so many former senior officials.

“This is a very powerful and distinguished group of former commanders, who are extremely worried about where Netanyahu is taking Israel right now,” he said.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/netanyahu-a-danger-to-israel-say-200-israel...

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:52 | 5895834 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Still can't figure it out, the zionist Yaron Ezrahi is remarking that military zionists say another zionist "is a danger" to zionism.

I gave up on the third brain cramp...lol.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 19:26 | 5895927 Jonesy
Jonesy's picture

Yep, the world's full of whacked out Jews willing to send our kids to die for Eretz Israel.  Doesn't matter if Bibi is out, the joke is on the goyim.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 19:36 | 5895945 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Obama isn't joooish, neither is Putin, neither was Mao or Stalin or Pol Pot or Hitler and certainly not "Jinjus Con" or Abu Bakr, unless you know something I don't...lol.

Whatever dude, I just like fuckin with trolls anyways ;-)

 

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 04:19 | 5897204 Victor999
Victor999's picture

Shame you are poor at it.

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 06:16 | 5897280 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...that wasn't bad.

Have a greenie ;-)

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 05:15 | 5897237 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

The thing is no one ever defined what zionism is. I always thought it was jewish nationalism with all that it entails (a jewish nation state with its own land and jewish population, army, etc). Hitler agreed with this definition.

But there are differences in the implementation. Some zionists want endorse coexisting with arabs as long as jews have the right to live in Israel, others want a pure jewish country. Some are communist, others endorse free market capitalism. Others are liars with hidden agendas.

There are israeli arabs calling themselves zionists but no one is sure what it means.

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 06:15 | 5897278 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Ding ding ding! We have a winner!

"Some are communist, others endorse free market capitalism. Others are liars with hidden agendas."

I wonder which one Yaron Ezrahi is, reading his bio I'd say, statist-elitist-leftist, with eugenic tendencies which is born of a national socialists mindset.

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 06:32 | 5897293 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

Any socialism that does not recognize the equality of all human beings (all homo sapien) is national socialism, as it places one group of humans above the others.

If the socialism recognizes the equality of all human beings, then we all become equally replaceable. And it would be ok, because anyone is just as good as you..

In the absence of socialism we have freedom with all that it entails: Non-cooperative competition. Bullets to the back of the head delivered by death squads are an example of non cooperative competition.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:35 | 5895799 geekz_rule
geekz_rule's picture

netanyahu is the israeli version of sock puppet war mongerer. disgusting pig

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:41 | 5895814 iofera
iofera's picture

Another anti-Semite exposed.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:58 | 5895849 blindman
blindman's picture

i up voted this comment as bibi is not semitic
and is a "superior"/nazi anti semite. imho
of course.
ps.
this is why i do not support him.

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 04:17 | 5897203 Victor999
Victor999's picture

'Anti-Jewish' perhaps, but certainly not 'anti-Semitic' since some 85-90% of Jews today have little or no Semitic blood in their veins.  The most anti-Semitic group are the Jews themselves who oppress the true Semitics of that area - the Palestinians.

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 05:09 | 5897229 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

"Semites" is a made up racial category, like "arab". No such a thing as a semite exists.

Like a moroccan is a qatary is a syrian...

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 07:00 | 5897330 Victor999
Victor999's picture

You are technically correct, of course.  Semite usually refers to those originating in the Levant, speaking a 'semitic' language like Arabic or Hebrew (or one of a number of similar languages in the area).  What it does not refer to is those who claim roots in the Levant but who in fact have roots in Eastern and Central Europe - those who today call themselves Ashkanazi Jews, but in fact have absolutely no blood relationship to true Levant Jews and Semites whose father is accepted as Abraham - and therefore, no entitlement to Abrahamic Promises (which presumably include the land of Israel).

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 12:34 | 5898517 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

Abrahamic promises include all of abraham´s descendants, including Ishmael and his descendants.

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 05:07 | 5897226 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

How can that possibly qualify as antisemitism? Look, im as self hating as any other jew, not trying to brag about it or anything but cmon man! He is not even critizing Israel, just Bibi.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 18:48 | 5895822 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Anyone but Bibi and then Bibi can take the helm at ISIL.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 19:12 | 5895890 Dicey
Dicey's picture

Stuff Israel, tip of the iceberg this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDaKFE_J_ug

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 19:18 | 5895904 iofera
iofera's picture

[For even more virulent anti-Jew commentary, be sure to visit our sister site JewHatred.com]

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 19:25 | 5895925 blindman
blindman's picture

i,
what is religion? does the term "jew" or "jewish"
confer or imply a "religious" affiliation?
thank you for forcing this essential question upon
this thread.
(and apologies as i imagine it is beyond the capacity
of this thread to respond coherently)

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 04:14 | 5897200 Victor999
Victor999's picture

Jews are the only group that can claim discrimination based upon race, or religion, or ethnicity - whatever is most convenient at the time.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 20:57 | 5895928 Dearlydeparted
Dearlydeparted's picture

'[For even more virulent anti-Jew commentary, be sure to visit our sister site JewHatred.com]'

Articles like this one bring out the Hasbara team in full force.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 19:28 | 5895933 Jonesy
Jonesy's picture

Nah, that site is lite, take a peek at Incogman.net  instead, if you want the facts.

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 04:12 | 5897199 Victor999
Victor999's picture

There are growing numbers of them.....getting nervous?

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 19:32 | 5895940 Arthur Schopenhauer
Arthur Schopenhauer's picture

Whats with all these complicated charts and graphs? The simple straightforward truth is Benjamin Netanyahu has always been nothing but a shill for (1) the American military industrial/defense contractor butt buddy ponzi scheme and (2) Wall Street lobbyists. The quicker he's gone the better.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 20:03 | 5895999 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

Netanyahu was also directly involved in the theft of the nuclear triggers...

 

http://original.antiwar.com/smith-grant/2012/07/03/netanyahu-worked-insi...

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 21:41 | 5896361 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

The "flowchart" is supposed to be a joke.

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 04:10 | 5897196 Victor999
Victor999's picture

If he is nothing but a shill, then it won't matter who replaces him, will it?  Just another shill?

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 19:44 | 5895960 JailBanksters
JailBanksters's picture

Will it be Germans or Poles that rule Israel, that is the question

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 19:53 | 5895980 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

There's a lot at stake here since the winners will pick the presidental candidates the U.S. populous will be allowed to vote for in it's pretend democratic election farce.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 20:11 | 5896028 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

Fucking Nuttinyahoo was claiming Iran was a year away from the bomb, and that was a couple of decades ago.

Pathalogical liar.

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 20:41 | 5896127 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

He's been harping on that since the early 80s...

Mon, 03/16/2015 - 23:46 | 5896852 Jerusalem Cats
Jerusalem Cats's picture

In the past elections the Haredim (Orthodox Jews) were paid not to vote ($200 per person). Now the Torah leaders are telling the Haredim to vote.

Vote for a Torah Party 17 March 2015

That is an additional 20% of the voters that will vote for the Torah parties of United Torah Judaism, Shas and Yachad. On the other hand Haaretz columnist Rogel Alpher, is now urging Israelis not to bother voting altogether.

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 03:19 | 5897152 besnook
besnook's picture

in the end israel will still run the largest outdoor prison on the world and influence usa foreign policy in the region......

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 05:12 | 5897233 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"Unlike in some other parliamentary democracies, Israelis don't vote for a specific geographic constituency: Rather, they vote for a slate of candidates represented by a party or coalition of parties."

the explanation for this is simpler then that: Israel has a parliamentary democracy with a multy-party electoral system like the european ones, with one twist:

instead of having geographically separated electoral districts with up to 30 or 50 seats each, it has one single giant electoral district with 120 seats

the end result is the maximum of... choice

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 08:02 | 5897464 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

fyi the Netherlands also has only one electoral district ( but you probably knew )

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 17:06 | 5899704 blindman
blindman's picture

it seems man-kind just might be prone to
destroy all life on earth, not for the privileged
of naming or claiming a particular rock or two,
but for authority to charge usurious duties for
access, by the many, to the many formations
of rocks.
drain bramage is the norm today, aka
militarism and where from comes the phrase
"self licking ice cream cone."
anyway .....

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