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The Last Time This Happened, The Fed Launched QE 2
The prospects of a rate hike by the Fed are looking increasingly shaky and downright laughable, not just because the start to 2015 for the US economy has been the worst in "negative surprises" terms since Lehman, or because the Atlanta Fed Q1 real-time GDP forecast is about to go negative (consensus originally expected this print to be 3.5% if not higher), but because the last time this happened, the Fed launched QE2.
What is "this"? Bank of America explains.
Trimmed mean measures of inflation had appeared stable when cited by some FOMC participants in the January minutes, supporting the idea that soft inflation largely reflected transitory factors. But, the 12-month change in the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE measure has dropped below 1.5% after running between 1.6 and 1.7% for much of 2014. The annualized 3-month change, illustrates how sudden and sharp the deterioration has been. The last time this measure was so weak was in early 2010, when persistently low inflation helped convinced the Fed to launch QE2 later that year.
So add tumbling personal consumption expenditures (but... but... plunging gas prices are unambiguously good) to the list of items the Fed will sternly refuse to observe as it moves from "patient" to "impatient", if as so many now expect, it starts hiking interest rates as soon as June.
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But but but EVERYTHING IS AWESOME!!
Fer suuuure..
We QE'd some folks, after killing some others.
When you can't even get 2% inflation going after injecting multiple trillions of freshly printed dollars into the system, you know you're in trouble.
You're not in trouble until the fat lady sings.
<And the fat lady is Mr. Yellen.>
Silver went up significantly after QE2, but dropped significantly after QE3. What will it be this time?
Silver should always drop no matter what. Silver to $0!
I'm backing up the truck when it gets to $1!
For the unitiiated, here is my daily BTFDAX comment... up around 2000 points since I began at 12120 and still plenty of headroom for MAUR
BTFDAX !!!
You are an idiot. But so am I as many here have pointed out. I bought and then bought some more. Not DAX but ES.
PS: Trades are like women. Be very thoughtful and deliberate if you want to marry one. Otherwise the flings are for in and out. No commitment just fun.
I may be an idiot Party, but I'm no fool and in reference to your "Trades are like women" expample - I'm having a threesome with (that well known idiiot) Draghi and the slut knows as the DAX
Does patient mean more QE or higher rates?
I can't fathom it, I don't even care how, but the DAX is up another 90 points since my last comment and it still looks like it wants to go up some more. On the flip side, someone is getting very seriously squeezed and I would expect to hear of hedge funds going out of business by the end of this week
I'm renting a train when it gets to 0 !!!
No, silver can never drop to 0. All mining would shut down way before then and there would be a shortage which would raise the price.
Remember that silver is an industrial metal.
Really? Thanks for the explanation. I didn't think actual human beings could take my comment seriously! And I got junked to boot! Silver to $0!
Guess I won't be renting that train after all...
it will go below zero, you will have to pay somebody to dispose of it for you
I AM Jon Nadler
very tired of the...."since lehman....other things we can use are
:.
paul newman died...
oj went to jail..
hedi and spencer got married...who? exactly
britneys divorce..
anna nicoles death...
and oblowme became our first worstestest gay president with a wookie first transgendered ledy(?)
You're not in trouble until the fat lady sings.... She's behind the curtain clearing her voice at this moment.
Right now the Ponzi Munchkin is singing "Hi ho, hi ho, it's off to print I go..."
Patience....
I think it's BETTER than awesome. I think we need a new word to describe it.
Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious is already taken. Just sayin'
... "Since Lehman"
(c)
nonstop monster buying of SPY - started with a block of 1.75 mil
There's that lowflation boogy man again...
QE = HEROIN = Just One More = Overdose = DEATH!
But, but, but, it feels so good, so it must be right, LOL.
Juis sui Junkies!
Signed the FED
venturen "Juis sui Junkies!= I am junkies!", signed the FED.
---
I think it is more like "Profitez junkies". "Enjoy junkies". Signed the FED.
Or perhaps "Nous sommes" = "We are"
Can you imagine what a stupid bitch Yellen is to take the reins right now?
"It wasn't us, it was the stupid bitch and the black guy!" - Zionists and assorted secret society crowd
ya right....What do Bernaeke and Greenspan get per speech?.... They can earn a million a day droning on in NY to an empty room. The bankers know how to butter up a blowhard economists. Let's see be banker friend...and when I retire they pay me $200k a speech regardless of its merit or be tough on bankers and actually have to make a living. What would you do? The public isn't going to pay you for being a good guy. Even Tim Stupid Geithner got the message....be stupid....don't do anything against banks....magic....EIGHT FIGURE SALARY!
History will always remember who was on what side. Everyone has a chance to do something meaningful with their lives. These people made their choice and it will not be forgiven, nor forgotten. Ever.
And don't forget, you always need a patsy. She will fulfill her role, as will the Geithners and Dimons of the world.
You are making a different argument now. Anyone can look up and know who was in charge of the FRB during the 1929 - 1932 crash. I would bet that most people, wouldn't know unless they looked it up. By the way, the Chair was Roy Young and then Eugene Meyer during those times.
Now I ask you, what happened to these Chairs of the FRB after and during the crash? Anything? Did they go to the poor house and suffer with the average person?
Do you know of the average person cursing the name of Young and Meyer today?
We recovered from that crash. The Fed itself is not seen as a threat to world peace by the average individual today. You will remember these people this time, and so will posterity because they will be viewed as traitors not only to this country, but to their fellow man.
Mr Poopra We recovered from that crash. The Fed itself is not seen as a threat to world peace by the average individual today. You will remember these people this time, and so will posterity because they will be viewed as traitors not only to this country, but to their fellow man.
----
You are NOT putting yourself in the position of the person living in that time. I am beginning to think you don't have the capability to do so.
Did the man in the soup line in 1931 KNOW things would recover? NO
There were Americans there were viewed as traitors to the USA at that time also. Do you not know history? Have you ever heard of Japanese American prison camps in the US that came afterwards? How many American Germans were blacklisted?
And why don't you answer my questions to previous posts?
Instead of answer questions or asking questions to me, you try to change or deflect.
If you can't have an intelligent debate with me, then I'll end this and let the readers decide.
I didn't answer your previous posts because your views are myopic and filled with normalcy bias. You are pointing to bumps in the road when i'm pointing to the cliff we are speeding towards.
Mr Poopra Can you imagine what a stupid bitch Yellen is to take the reins right now?
---
I don't know. She may get blamed and be hated by the lower 98%. But as a top earner, probably in the toop 10%, she'll be just fine. When the SHTF, she will still live decently while the average man starves. She can move to whatever country while the average man can't.
And she can always have some cozy job as a professor in some foreign country making more in a year then most people make in a decade. Yea, we all hate them and the FRB. But she is gonna get hers while she in on earth.
This crash will not be like any one before. This is the end of this particular system, and anyone tied to it will be sacrificed to the mob. Finance will be a dirty word and anyone involved will be seen as fair game by the populace.
Mr Poopra This crash will not be like any one before. This is the end of this particular system, and anyone tied to it will be sacrificed to the mob. Finance will be a dirty word and anyone involved will be seen as fair game by the populace.
----
Look, I don't want to insult you. You are making your view points which is okay. I disagree. I also present evidence to support my position, while you don't. That tends to lead me to think you aren't very educated in history.
So once again, I will suggest to you that your view point may not necessarily be correct. The Rothchilds were in charge of banking and they survived quite fine after the World's Currency Reserve was switched from Britain to the United States. If you lived at that time period, you probably would have proclaimed that the Rothchilds were over. The system has changed and this crash is different, like none before.
But the Rothchilds are just fine to this day. And keep in mind, I have been a defender of Jewish people and have gone after anti semites on ZH.
Regardless of how dirty the word finance is, it is always needed. Do you need to borrow money from a relative or do they need a loan from you? Are you a dirty person because you loaned your child some money? After all, you are a money changer now.
You are familiar with Rothschild Zionism in name only, it seems like. Being Jewish myself, i can explain it to you. There is, in fact, an endgame. This particular brand of Zionism is not playing to merely exist and enjoy the profits generated from their understanding of fractional reserve banking, they are playing for everything. Nothing short of complete domination, not in secret, but in open. A worldwide system of control and surveillance with Jerusalem as the world capital. This has always been the plan. Read the Torah and Talmud carefully. The final crash will be the house claiming all physical property.
Finance is needed, not to enslave people but to free them. Like any other tool, it is inert without the skillful manipulation of individuals. That is the key difference and why this is so important.
As for my education in history, i have neither the time nor the inclination to write detailed essays in the comments section of a blog in order to persuade you to accept view. I am not "competing" with you, and regardless of how many people agree with either of us, that in itself does not give more weight to either argument. Know that there are powerful groups, that you've never heard of, working diligently with near limitless resources for ends that most people could never conceive of.
This particular brand of Zionism is not playing to merely exist and enjoy the profits generated from their understanding of fractional reserve banking, they are playing for everything. Nothing short of complete domination, not in secret, but in open. A worldwide system of control and surveillance with Jerusalem as the world capital. This has always been the plan. Read the Torah and Talmud carefully. The final crash will be the house claiming all physical property.
You are one of the very few people I've ever seen who understand this. When the mortgage defaults, the bank forecloses. This is a purposeful engineering of such a default for the entire planet.
I've been saying this for a number of years now, and I'm not even Jewish. Nor am I an antisemite; the problem with the Rothschilds is PSYCHPATHY, not Jewishness.
I worry constantly that those of us Jews who have been speaking out for some time against this will be grouped in with these deranged psychopaths. They do not represent Judaism or the Jewish people. Judaism has been hijacked by the Zionists, they have turned it and distorted it into materialism. They have traded virtue, something they now sneer at, for sand.
I worry about the exact same thing. Most of the Jews I've ever known have been great people, and it really pisses me off to think of the PsychoJews getting away scot-free while the enraged Gentile masses vent their rage by wiping out millions of people who had nothing to do with screwing up the world's economy. And my gut tells me this is not only possible, but likely.
I totally agree aboiut Zionism, also. Having a cultural identity is one thing. Proclaiming yourself superior to the whole of humanity by accident of birth is something else again.
I also think the PsychoJews are trying to reverse the Diaspsora, in order to raise an army in the MidEast.
There is a much larger and longer game being played here than most people even begin to realize.
Can you imagine what a stupid bitch Yellen is to take the reins right now?
It's all by design: print and pump as long as Ovomit is in office. Leave a House of Cards that the next administration will get the blame for when it crashes.
Can't recapture that first high...
but this time is different!
About all the un-fed can say now is that everything is going so well, the timing is just not right to raise rates. Since it ain't broke no need to fix it!
FUBAR!
the pros know no rate hike, no matter the blather on MSM about good jobs low UE..lies the pros know this data will make qe a lock, ergo up we go.
BULLISH! (for tech?)
Let's see how long the $USD can go up without a rate hike is more likely.The counter-intuitive world continues.
Using inflation as an indicator to do so has not and will not work.
I am waiting for the Fed to drop 'patient' which will be followed by a final spike in USD along with a hammer of gold. I will add some PMs and expect by next week for the USD to start falling back. Speculators have driven the dollar up in a parabolic move and once they see 'patient' removed they will take their profits and move on to manipulating something else.
They won't drop 'patient' with the USD so high. MSM setting up for a rally with all this 'consensus' that 'patient' will be removed. It'll stay, and Dow to soar another 400.
This is fucking absurd.
Yes.
Just yes.
Wednesday FOMC flip the script and drops the big bomb.....QE6 = $2.5 trillion effective immediately.
SD-1, Thanks for taking a stand, but you know we hsve to take your call with a grain of salt. I was around when you were assuring everyone that QE would never happen ... Then you disappeared for a while.
Not trying to rile you up. Just reminiscing.
The Fed will remove the word patient and opt for 'data dependent' as the new key words.
The extended period, the patient, and all the other buzzwords were added to 'inspire' confidence in buying stocks and never should have been included. The Feds actions, after all, have always been data dependent, only the data has never been all that great -- and the data still is not.
By adapting 'data dependent' they can still keep the markets happy since the data is too weak right now.
And we the people just let it happen when does the word ASHAMED show up REDICULOUS is another when will we just pay the piper
You speak of serious, moral, socially conscious thought.
Expecting this from a populous shocked from credit withdrawal, with minds and bodies polluted by the toxins that corporate america pumps into them through foods, and media?
All we need is a few more hundreds of billions to those bankers and a little spritz of unicorn urine and we'll be walking in high cotton again.
how they gonna keep oil down with maor qe on the way?? magic I guess
Betting on higher JGB rates has been known as the ' widowmaker ' trade since ... forever.
Granma will be patient whether she says the word or not.
When will the Fed do a study on how an economy suffocates to death without interest being paid on savings?
Oh great, now the Fed can't even see it's own rate hike coming.
Justice may not be blind anymore, but, at least the Fed still is.
It would be so much fun to watch TPTB all wrestling for the same steering wheel, while driving along a steep gorge, if I didn't suddenly remember that we were all in the backseat.
Or perhaps they plan to jump out at the very last moment sending us down the embankment alone?
This just doesn't make sense, because WE ALL KNOW the economy is recovering nicely...
"Roaring".
#FUCKYOUYELLEN
The FED has crashed the economy before, why wouldn't they do it again? They can gain either way. It looks to me like they have run out of means to prop up the false recovery so why not profit from the crash?
Right, I've read (would like others to confirm) that they brought Winston Churchill over to watch the crash real-time in 1929.
The crash will happen when the elites want it to. So they can buy assets for pennies on the dollar.
I didn't know about Churchill watching the crash but the history I have read does look like it was on purpose.
Low gas prices are good...
next one - "worst since 1980" after that -"worst since ww2"
Ha! Worst since The Inquisition.
FED is out of options
The tactics employed to date have only enriched the ultra wealthy and is now beginning to enrage the sheeple who seem to come to every now and again?
Shit, I called no rate hike the other day. No surprise here. FRB follows. When rates are going to be hiked, it should be when private bond investors panic.
If the FRB hikes rates before the private sector, then they immediately have to reverse their hike the next meeting (which is another way of saying "Oops, we fucked up". that will cause HUGE turmoil in the market and an eventual collapse months later.
YELLEN: "I´D RATHER GIVE AWAY MY TWO KIDNEYS THAN RAISE INTEREST RATES"
FED president moves her office to surgery room to calm the markets.
Investor: "I´d feel more confident if she threw in her liver too".
Source: www.financialpaparazzi.com
Greater volatility is a sign the controlling is getting harder.
Could it be the Fed will follow rates up rather than lead them up?
That's what they used to do with fed fund rates in the past, before they owned the Treasury market lock, stock, and barrel.
The FED will NEVER raise rates by choice. NEVER
They won't raise rates until they are sure it will cause the biggest crash ever.