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Greece Faces Cash Crunch This Friday Without "Plan A Or Plan B": What Happens Next
Greece’s day of reckoning may be fast approaching. Athens will have to pony up more than €2 billion in debt payments this Friday to the ECB, the IMF, and (get this) Goldman Sachs, for an interest payment on a derivative and it’s not entirely clear where the money will come from. On Wednesday, the government will vote on a “plan” to boost liquidity which includes tapping public funds and diverting bank bailout money. Here’s Bloomberg:
Greece will begin debating measures to boost liquidity as the cash-starved country braces for more than 2 billion euros ($2.12 billion) in debt payments Friday…
The government’s revenue-boosting plan includes eliminating fines on those who submit overdue taxes by March 27 to encourage payment, helping cover salaries and pensions due at the end of the month. The bill also requires pension funds and public entities to invest reserves held at the Bank of Greece in government securities and repurchase agreements, and transfers 556 million euros from the country’s bank recapitalization fund to the state. A vote on the measures is scheduled for Wednesday…
The Goldman Sachs derivative, now held by the National Bank of Greece, masked the country’s growing debt when it was agreed in 2001, helping it meet European Union rules for entering the euro area. The interest payment adds to the country’s funding woes as the government misses budget targets and the ECB refuses to allow Greek banks to keep the country afloat with additional short-term debt.
Despite government claims that it can meet its obligations, outside observers aren’t so sure. German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble for instance, can’t find anyone who can explain it:
“None of my colleagues, or anyone in the international institutions, can tell me how this is supposed to work.”
Meanwhile, one senior fellow at the Brookings Institution suggests Athens is winging it entirely at this point:
“The impression given is that there’s no plan A or plan B. There’s nothing.”
With the situation deteriorating rapidly, the sell side is back to drawing up Grexit plans. For their part, Morgan Stanley sees a 60% chance of either a euro exit or what the bank is calling a “staycation,” which basically means that the situation is so convoluted that no one can figure it out leading to the imposition of capital controls and a painful prolonging of the inevitable. Here’s more from MS:
Grexit – what’s the probability?
We recap the three alternative scenarios worth exploring:
1. Euro stay (40% probability): This scenario would be the result of political compromise. Basically, of the ‘impossible trinity’ that Syriza wants (stay in the euro; be in power; and undo the bailout programme), what gives is that the Greek government doesn’t undo the bailout programme. We assume that it recommits to implementing a slightly less demanding package of measures in agreement with the official lenders, and prospects of somewhat less austerity, extra maturity extensions and interest rate reductions on the EU loans, as well as ECB QE, help find a compromise (see here). This is still our base case but, compared to our previous assessment of 55%, we think that the chances of this outcome have diminished, given the inherent difficulties in finding a middle-ground solution, mostly given Greece’s political constraints domestically, and Europe has little appetite for further slippages.
2. Euro exit (25% probability): This would happen if the lack of a Greece-Troika compromise led to bitter negotiations, then a worsening in market reaction, negotiations ultimately failing and Greek banks being cut off from ECB funding. It could also happen if the EU perceived low contagion risk and/or viewed the political precedent of a Greek euro exit as not that bad – in which case Greece would be ‘let go’. The chances of this outcome playing out have not increased, in our view; yet they haven’t diminished either. While this is not our base case, we believe that the probability of a misstep remains substantial – given an unstable economic, bank deposit and sovereign funding situation – and may well lead to an exit.
3. Euro staycation (35% probability): This is an intermediate scenario where no
compromise is reached over a 3-6-month horizon. We presume capital controls would be introduced to limit money outflows, and Greece, like Cyprus, would effectively no longer be a full member of the eurozone, even though formally it would stay within the currency union. Full euro membership would eventually be restored once/if all capital controls were lifted. This scenario, after some time, could evolve into either of the other two. Should this happen, we’d see a 60% probability that an exit might follow, taking a 12-18 month view, and a 40% probability that capital controls get lifted. Further damage to the economy, banking system and confidence may well lead to this outcome, especially if accompanied by policy mistakes.
Endgame probabilities: Even though it’s beyond the scope of this note, the ‘fully computed’ probabilities – i.e., taking into account that staycation, in the end, either becomes exit or stay in the medium term – suggest that the chances of the euro stay scenario are just slightly more than even. As such, the outlook really is binary, with considerable downside risks – should capital controls be introduced. Besides economic developments, deposit flows and sovereign funding, what’s worth monitoring is the negotiations on the measures that Greece is supposed to implement by the end of April, and whether a more durable solution can be found before the expiration of the four-month extension at the end of June.
...and here’s a bit on systemic risk…
But wouldn’t Grexit make the euro a riskier proposition? Yes, we think that Grexit could conceivably affect market participants’ reaction function – perhaps for a long time. It’s probably fair to say that, if it’s just one of the smaller countries leaving, the overall impact of a euro exit scenario may well be more manageable for the rest of the region and the contagion effects rather limited if the policy response is strong enough. Yet even that would likely change the dynamics of EMU and negate the concept of irrevocability. So Grexit has the potential to leave the impression that the eurozone is no longer a monetary union, but more akin to a collection of fixed exchange rates. From a logical standpoint, if one country leaves, market participants may think that, in a subsequent crisis, others could follow, which may make bond markets in the EU periphery respond much more negatively to a future shock.
...followed by projections for the euro…
Exit (25% probability) => EURUSD to decline to 0.82
A Greek exit is still the most bearish scenario for EUR, in our view. A country leaving the eurozone, even one of the smaller countries in the periphery, will have a major negative impact on EUR. We believe that this may change the dynamics of EUR, implying that the eurozone is no longer a monetary union, but rather a collection of fixed exchange rates. Under the scenario of a Greek exit, we now project EURUSD at 0.82, especially if a Greek exit starts to increase the probability of other countries leaving.
Staycation (35% probability) => EURUSD to decline to 0.90 However, where we believe the risks have increased the most is for our staycation scenario. The potential for a staycation, where Greece stays in the euro but only with the assistance of additional measures, has increased with a probability of 35%, in our view, up from the 20% we assumed previously. This implies that the probability of the EUR decline exceeding our 1.05 base case projection (euro stay scenario) has also increased significantly. One of most significant measures, as far as EUR is concerned, could be the introduction of capital controls for Greece. While not as severe as an exit from the euro, it would once again call into question the eurozone as a monetary union. This, we believe, would expose EUR to increased downward pressure. Under our staycation scenario, we would now expect EURUSD to achieve 0.90 by year-end.
...and ending in a rather dire outlook for the Greek banking sector…
We’ve been here before: As the chart below shows, at the peak in 2012, one-third of Greek balance sheets were funded by the ECB, mostly via ELA. This coincided with the height of deposit outflows at 20%Y in June 2012 – when a Greek euro exit was most anticipated – and had remained c.30% below its peak before this latest round of outflows.
Eurosystem funds withdrawal in event of a euro exit leaves €82bn loans unfunded: Should deposit outflows further accelerate against fears of potential euro exit, at which point the ECB would stop funding Greek banks, the system would be faced with a large and arguably unmanageable funding gap. We estimate that a 20% decline in deposits – the highest percentage we have seen in a single year (2012) – would result in a funding gap equal to about €82bn, > 40% of GDP.
* * *
The bottom line here is that the supposedly “indissoluble” monetary union is looking more dissoluble by the day and if there’s anything the ECB does not need a week into PSPP it’s for sovereign spreads to blow out as the market begins to price in redenomination risk.
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Oh brother not these guys again...
I know. Slowest. Bandaid. Removal. Ever.
Just wait -- the other EU nations will step up their "unity" and write another huge check to the Greek government, which inturn gives it right back to their banks to show their "solidarity."
I mean, its worked thus far. I think the EU just needs to turn into a Federation. I mean -- that is the cause of all their problems. "Europeans" are "United" enough. I mean --- come-on guyz -- what could *POSSIBLY* go wrong?
German news are reporting that the SPD and the Greens are already talking about taking the Greek War Reparations seriously and make further debt restructuring. the last one was +100 billion
meanwhile, have you any idea how unlikely it is that there will be any changes to the treaties? that "federation" thing is just daydreaming. socialist daydreaming, nevertheless, daydreaming
about as solid as the Juncker Phantom Army. very useful... words
40%, 35%, and 25%, sounds like it adds up to 120% chance that they are screwed any way you slice it.
How about someone pays war crime reparations to all the relatives of the citizens and refugees burned alive at Dresden or relatives of the 1.2 million German P.O.W,s deliberately and slowly murdered by Eisenhauer or all the millions of German women and children gang raped and butchered by Soviet Bolshevics and American troops . Come on guys fair,s fair.
I bring this point up often with my girlfriends parents. Its an uncomfortable truth that Germans still feel uncomfortable when admitting that war crimes happened against Germans in WWII.
The rape order* upon the final Berlin assault by the Bolshevics was one of the greatest war crimes no one has even been prosecuted for -- much less apologized for.
*For those of you who don't know what that was -- when the Red Army arrived in Strausberg (a suburb east of Berlin) Soviet high command ordered any woman or girl who had started puberty to be raped. This was not a "do it and we'll look away" but the same people who were executing Russians for retrieting in Stalingrad told hundreds of thousands of young men who have been fighting for months that they HAD to rape -- it was brutal, and destructive.
Putin would do very well for himself with the Germans (and drive a wedge between the US who pushes a lot of this anti-German propaganda and the German population) -- even if they don't say it, but if he was to do a Kniefall type of moment for all the German-civilian victims of Soviet brutality in the final days of WWII -- it would not only be powerful, but it would kick the ball into Obama and Cameron's court to do the same thing re; Dresden and other non-militarized cities that were flattened.
Putin -- if your advisors are reading this and want to cause havoc in the US/German relationship - this would be a GREAT idea.
the final days of Berlin are a bit more complicated then that. the Fire Bombing of Dresden, on the other side, is simple. Several cities were spared, had lots of refugees, and a few generals wanted to see if their theories of a giant sucking ring of fire would work
another reminder that if you don't fight for peace, you will have to... fight in war. and often side by side to the madman you actually ought to shoot, immediately
Sorry Ghordo -
normally there is some credability, albeit abstract to almost everything you say. This is not an example of such.
The ordered rape of girls as young as 10 is completely unacceptable irrespective of the situation. Period. Full stop. This is not complicated at all.
Lastly, the final days of WWII in Berlin had undersupplied German regular force surrounded trying to take as many Russians with them as they could. You had one last battalion of highly trained, experienced and well armed Waffen SS on Museumsinsel holding it out as the last choke point before the Reichstag.
The Waffen SS troops were parked on the front lawn of the Alte Nationalgalerie waiting for the Soviet troops to round the corder of Berliner Dom. The columns there that hold up the Portecove were never repaired as a Denkmal to the last battle of the war in Europe. You can still, to this day see clearly the difference in impact shape on the columns depending on the side of the column you look at.
The fall of Berlin was inevitable, its just a damned shame the Eisenhower was running the Allied forces instead of Patton. Then again, Yalta was already signed and Potsdam drafts were already in the works.
Fuck the Soviet Union.
look, it's very difficult for me to think straight about the last days of Berlin, ok? I had years of family discussions about that. the truth I cobbled together for me is that in those days the Soviet Troops were completely ungovernable. and this, I witnessed often, on war "theaters". so ok, if you believe it was ordered from above, do believe that and forget my comment, I was not trying to make any point and should have deleted it immediately
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=106687768
This took all of 2 seconds with google, and if I spent any length of time on it, I can get you the scholarly sources.
Seperate people from their governments as we today can easily see governments do not represent their populations, but more often than not oppress them.
I realise you being somehow tied to the EU -- you're expected to keep the line that "German did everything wrong in WWII" but admitting that stuff like this;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_during_the_occupation_of_Germany#/medi...
is horrible and completely unexcuseable should not be difficult for you.
Anyone who defends what the Soviets did post Nemmersdorf are egregious pieces of shit, and they make me seriously question their humanity. Don't be one of those people.
(Rape estimates were over 2,000,000 between 45-47)
haus... you have a little habit which I think you ought to adjust: taking for granted that someone's position is exactly straight opposed to yours
I was not denying the rapes. If you would have read a bit more attentively, you'd gathered the suspicion that I talked - and a lot - with people that were there
I just said: it was more complicated then that. in the sense of the straight order-from-above responsibility. compared to the personal responsibility of the soldiers there, or how they were behaving after all those months of campaign, or how much such orders would be even heard or not, or what brutes they were, by then. war is a dehumanizing, uncivilizing force all for itself. and many generals thought they had a restraint or not-restraint on their young men only to be utterly abused of this notion
http://ecsocman.hse.ru/data/419/925/1216/014.RYBAKOVSKIY.pdf
You seem to be both surprised and incensed that the nation which suffered the most catastrophic losses, among the highest in all of modern recorded history, would seek revenge against the victimizer* by any and all available and conceivable means. This is neither surprising nor particularly aggravating. Germans didn't seem to especially mind German war crimes until Germany lost. Germany did not have a monopoly on wrongdoing in the Eurasian landmass - the Soviets bested them in nearly every category, albeit over a much longer period - but this was not from a lack of trying. That is the point. When you start a series of wars as total wars, expect defeat to be total defeat.
*Was there at that time anyone who doubted the intentions of the Third Reich in regard to the Soviet masses after an unconditional surrender of the USSR? Anyone? Anyone?
Ok Ghord , retraction accepted , we can all speak before thinking sometimes . Peace
Ghordius you just revealed yourself, rationalising mass murder and the rape of children is not "complicated" , it is obscene and criminal and an affront to the Creator if that entity even exists
First people need to understand the motive of war. I don't believe we will have an understanding of the truth unless we uncover a credible sources of history. Don't expect to find it in modern day history classes.
Not to justify or provide excuses for abuses committed during wars (or in peacetime), some random thoughts after reading comments here:
Military leaders have been confronted, many times, with the phenomenon that their troops are reviled by killing, and start to show sympathy for the "enemy". Witness the "Christmas truce" of 1914 when the German and Allied troops emerged from their trenches and engaged in friendly exchanges, even games of football (soccer to you unwashed). The Generals, in some cases, responded by ordering artillery fire into no-man's-land to drive the men back into their trenches. In Viet Nam, some US troops refused to take part in the My Lai massacre while others killed all the men, women, and children in the village. Returning veterans often have strong anti-war views gained from their experiences in war. Armchair warriors and psychopaths have no such qualms.
Maintaining the average soldier's motivation to kill, maim, and destroy while that soldier views the horrors caused, is a problem met by constant mental manipulation and brutal discipline.
From The Fall of Berlin 1945 by Anthony Beevor, Viking Penguin 2002, Penguin paperback 2002, the following comes:
Russia, in WW2, had a largely peasant army, its infantry full of people with little education and no world experience. To motivate them to fight the invaders, the Russian army used standard propaganda techniques to instil hatred. Germans were portrayed as ruthless murderers and destroyers, with no human traits. (The Germans instilled in their troops the idea that the Russians were "Untermenschen", i.e. "subhuman" and to be exterminated.) Soviet soldiers were told of terrible atrocities committed by the Germans and their Einsatzgruppen death squads. Blocking forces were also used by the Soviets to shoot any Soviet soldier who retreated without orders during fighting. A Soviet soldier who offended any officer could be sent to the Shtraf companies used to dig trenches under enemy fire, or forced to run through minefields ahead of tanks and infantry. Soviet treatment of its own soldiers was particularly cruel and wasteful. By 1944 these methods had been successful in creating an obedient, if unthinking Soviet infantry soldier, with overwhelming hatred of all things German.
p.169: "The programme of hatred of the enemy had started in the late summer of 1942, at the time of the withdrawal to Stalingrad and Stalin's 'Not one step back' order. It had also been the time of Anna Akmatova's poem 'The Hour of Courage has Struck'. But in February, 1945, the Soviet authorities adapted her words: 'Red Army soldier: You are now on German soil. The hour of revenge has struck!' It was, in fact, Ilya Ehrenburg who first changed her words, he who had written in 1942, 'Do not count the days; do not count the miles. Count only the number of Germans you have killed. Kill the German - this is your mother's prayer. Kill the German - this is the cry of your Russian earth. Do not waver. Do not let up. Kill'
"Every opportunity had been taken to drum in the scale of German atrocities in the Soviet Union. According to a French informant, the Red Army authorities exhumed the bodies of some 65,000 Jews massacred near Nikolayev and Odessa, and ordered them to be placed alongside the road most used by troops. Every 200 metres a sign declared 'Look how the Germans treat Soviet citizens'"
p. 25: "Ilya Ehrenburg's own mesmerizing calls for revenge on Germany in his articles in the Red Army newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) had created a huge following among the frontoviki or frontline troops."
p.24:"When General Chernyakovsky launched his offensive against East Prussia on 13 January [1945], political officers erected signs to arouse the troops: 'Soldier, remember you are now entering the lair of the fascist beast!'"
Recognizing that this hatred and abuse of the German civil population would be a hindrance to Soviet occupation of Germany after the end of the war, Stalin in April, 1945, ordered a softening of the anti-German tone in the Soviet army news sheets, which order was followed. Stalin also tried to order the armies to treat German civilians humanely. But the Soviet forces had seen so much of German atrocities in Russia, their anti-German attitudes were so hardened, and their mindsets so unsophisticated, that Stalin's order in this regard was ignored. The intense fighting in the last few months of the war, and the discovery of concentration camps, did little to soften the attitudes of Soviet soldiers against Germans.
German women and girls were commonly seen as "booty". It was said that Soviet soldiers 'were not refusing "the complements" of German women'. The rape of civilians was most common among soldiers who were drunk, and was often committed by many men as a gang. Rapes were referred to by the Soviet army authorities as "immoral events", and soldiers were punished only if they caught a venereal disease in the act. Complaints by German women to Soviet officers were useless.
The behavior of Soviet occupation troops in raping German women and girls probably had as much to do with the uncontrolled base urges of undisciplined soldiers as it had to do with any anti-German feelings. In instances in which Soviet officers tried to deter their men from committing rapes, the officers were sometimes threatened with death by their own drunken men. Thus there was an element of some Soviet soldiers being poorly disciplined and uncontrollable when drunk. The rape, by Soviet soldiers, of Russian and Polish women who had been taken prisoner by Germany and used as slave labor was common, although these women were officially seen as liberated allies of the Soviets.
As Soviet forces approached Berlin, the German authorities considered destroying all stores of alcohol before invading Soviet forces could get them, but often decided to let the alcohol fall into Soviet hands, in the hope that drunkeness would impair the fighting ability of the Soviet troops and let the German forces triumph. Drunkeness was rampant among the Soviet rear-echelon forces especially, but did not prevent the Soviet triumph in the end. The Soviet troops often drank any stupifying liquid, and there were cases of poisonings from industrial fluids. Ironically, it was the women and girls of Germany who suffered most after the stores of alcohol were found by advancing Soviet troops in Germany.
This is not to say that the Soviet troops were in any way unique in their conduct. Rape in wartime by armed men, of civilian women in occupied territories, is common. There are now frequent reports of rape being used as a weapon in wars in Africa. War and rape go together, and both are crimes against humanity. It is said that an amazing percentage of humans currently alive bear the DNA of Genghis Khan. It is doubtful that all the women bedded by Genghis were willing participants with him. Armies have been known to kidnap local women and force them into brothels as "comfort women" for the soldiers (Japan, Germany, the National Guard neo-Nazi battallions in east Ukraine in 2014, as examples). War is not an invitation to gentlemanly behavior. War is often portrayed as bringing out the best in a man, but often it brings out the worst. War is very nasty business, and frontline troops and civilian populations in war zones get to experience that nastiness first hand. Unfortunately, humankind does not learn very quickly about the realities of war, and there are always many psychopathic politicians and profiteers who encourage wars, and many useful idiots who can be duped into fighting wars.
"Maintaining the average soldier's motivation to kill, maim, and destroy while that soldier views the horrors caused, is a problem met by constant mental manipulation and brutal discipline."
and a segue to Col. Kurtz' famous words in Apocalypse Now (emphasis mine):
"I've seen horrors … horrors that you've seen. But you have no right to call me a murderer. You have a right to kill me. You have a right to do that … but you have no right to judge me. It's impossible for words to describe what is necessary to those who do not know what horror means. Horror. Horror has a face … and you must make a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends. If they are not, then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies. I remember when I was with Special Forces. Seems a thousand centuries ago. We went into a camp to inoculate the children. We left the camp after we had inoculated the children for Polio, and this old man came running after us, and he was crying. He couldn't see. We went back there, and they had come and hacked off every inoculated arm. There they were in a pile. A pile of little arms. And I remember … I … I … I cried. I wept like some grandmother. I wanted to tear my teeth out. I didn't know what I wanted to do. And I want to remember it. I never want to forget it. I never want to forget. And then I realized … like I was shot … like I was shot with a diamond … a diamond bullet right through my forehead. And I thought: My God … the genius of that. The genius. The will to do that. Perfect, genuine, complete, crystalline, pure. And then I realized they were stronger than we. Because they could stand that these were not monsters. These were men … trained cadres. These men who fought with their hearts, who had families, who had children, who were filled with love … but they had the strength … the strength … to do that. If I had ten divisions of those men, then our troubles here would be over very quickly. You have to have men who are moral … and at the same time who are able to utilize their primordial instincts to kill without feeling … without passion … without judgment … without judgment. Because it's judgment that defeats us."
The Left wing of the German political spectrum is filled with truly sick individuals. They aren't nearly as bad as the left wing of the British political spectrum, and are just a tad worse than American Leftists.
If you could point me to an article that has members of either party taking this seriously -- I'd appreciate it.
People wanting to keep apologizing about WWII here is similar to that of EUR and EU love -- it borders on a religion.
My girlfriends aunt and uncle told me that the little German kids that got killed in the various city bombings in WWII "deserved it." Regrettably, I would venture to say most on the Left wing here -- if not explicitly agree with the statement could emphatize with it.
Its a true sickness, a mental defect I believe. That or just decades of effective propaganda.
Haus-Tar that is unbelievably insane that German adults would say such a treacherous thing about children of their own tribe , as if ANY child anywhere is responsible for adult wars. It just goes to show how powerful the mind control of statist "education" and chosenite cult media is. My heart goes out to the spirits of ALL women and children raped and butchered in elitist mind control wars.
Haus, whatever Germans were, right after WWII, don't forget that they already had years and years of Dr. Goebbel's propaganda sitting in their brain interstices
many were truly at loss, the moment nazi propaganda ceased. propaganda is a bit like a soothing drug, it can give you withdrawal symptoms, and thirst for new "truths" to hold dear
(how much of what you read about the EUR is, btw, propaganda, too? is it... coherent, btw? still coherent nowadays compared to last year?)
voilà, mon ami: http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article138495313/SPD-und-Gruene-w... and http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/streit-um-reparationen-spd-und-gruene...(you really should read more German news, imho. take care)
I think all media is propaganda at this point & time -- including ZH.
That being said -- the best we can do is know both sides and try to make our own decisions about "the truth" whatever that might exactly be.
You're completely right about reading more. As I study for the British Solicitor, my "reading for fun time" is limited to 30 minutes in the morning before work, during work when I cannot stare at excel anymore (for example right now) and in the evenings for 30 minutes or so when I am done studying.
As soon as all my insanity is over come a year from now I am planning on getting a few subs;
- FAZ
- Süddeutsche
- Wirtschaftswoche
- Junge Freiheit (but thats just to troll the people at work)
Oh, it was all Goebbels propaganda?
If you are ever interested of overcoming that simplistic view, you might want to read The Milgram Experiment some day.
(But careful, that might show you what can happen to people that have no strict principles at all, just like you.)
If we are to believe the "The Evil So-and-Sos Made Them Do It!" meme that is so very popular here (as elsewhere), we must conclude that all peoples at all times are just a few really good speeches, rallies, and parades away from launching themselves into war. We must further conclude that, if all people at all times are so easily manipulated, no one and no people can ever be considered responsible for anything, any more than a marionette is responsible for the actions of its puppeteer. What a conveniently self-absolving doctrine.
Well you clearly haven't read The Milgram Experiment either.
and how did you infer that I don't have strict personal principles at all? because I like to expose group hypocrisy?
I have witnessed similar situations to this experiment, I'm well aware of human frailties. you seem to be building up a lot of projections upon me
Maybe because in all you've written over an extended period of time, I have never seen you take a stance that implies you have personal principles?
Plus you make it a sport to dance around principle-based arguments I bring up?
have witnessed similar situations to this experiment
Give me a brief description of such a situation you personally witnessed!
malek, if I do give a brief description of such situations... how do I prove them, here, on an anonymous blog? and how do I even write about them without sacrificing my anonymity?
have a look at how often I get here on ZH the feedback of the sort "we know where you are" by people tech-savy enough to sniff at the end of my VPN entry
weaseling?
If you clearly state "that is my opinion, or facts I state, but cannot prove by anything" that's totally OK.
Only if you extend it to "and I declare those unproven facts to be universally true and everyone else must live according to them" you wander out into ridiculous territory.
If you believe you have real anonymity anywhere on the Internet, you better 1. never write anything anywhere anymore and 2. stop reading/clicking on independent thinking websites as that might be construed against you one day. And finally think about that principles thing again.
But I believe it to be easy to tell a true story leaving out identifiable facts so nobody except people who had experienced it with me would be able to recognize it.
maybe a problem is that you do NOT know what are identifiable facts for sure, as you do not know what is in the mind of other people and even minor pieces of info can lead them to connect a few dots you were not even aware of.
as you do not know what is in the mind of other people
I thought that's why we are writing comments here?
If someone believes an important piece to be left out of consideration, bring it up and show us how it connects to the other pieces and why you believe it makes a difference.
sure seems like this week may be the end game......
Friday you say: "solar eclipse plunges the UK and other places into darkness this Friday, two other rare if less spectacular celestial events will be taking place, too: a Supermoon and the Spring equinox."
maybe a good day to stay near home...hmm
Why don't they just waive their debt limit like more sophisticated economies? <sarc>
Wave their dick? They are.
What happens next?
The same thing that always happens, a bunch of scaremongering followed up by more of the same shit. Bankers win, the people of Greece continue to suck it.
Yeah, it's amazing how many 'The' Days of Reckoning Greece has had.
I'm sure there's still some pension funds they haven't plundered yet.
What the F@#$ https://www.tradingview.com/x/Oa7lcEki/
Greece is hoping for urgent reparations from Germany by Friday. Hope springs eternal in a desperate heart.
Greeks will burn a few German flags to hasten reparations that will never come.
Out of fraud, no action arrises.
amazing. so the Vampire Squid Firmly Attached To The Face Of Humanity forecasts a lower EURUSD in the event of GreXit. oh, then we need even less a Q€, don't we?
and it talks of an "impossible trinity’ that Syriza wants (stay in the euro; be in power; and undo the bailout programme), what gives is that the Greek government doesn’t undo the bailout programme"
well, the way I know politicians, there is only one impossible thing for them: relinquish power without a fight. but getting out of the EUR is due to cause more political blowback from the average Greek then the bailout programme, so I still think Varoufakis might start to look for a better tax regime, clench his jaw and soldier on
The EU has atrillion lying around and they can't even give it away. A few hundred billion at -2% would be great for Greece and unelected EU nazi's could keep their jobs.
Why the fuck are they still paying GSucks for dropping them in the shit in the first place?
The tried and trusted method to remove a leech is to hold a cigarette lighter near its arse just to make sure that it can't come back you stamp on it when it lets go.
No kidding. They should be sueing Goldman in a Greek court for mis-representing their entry in to the Euro.
You guys don't get it.
The Squid helped a bunch of politicians get what they wanted, at the time. 'Now' isn't any different; the pols want something, the Squid, with its unbeatable army of sociopath financiers, is in the best position to give it to them.
If 'it' involves ass-fucking future generations of Greeks... so be it.
This is just typical of degenerate communist assholes. They think you can just print money out of thin air like Mandrake the Magician and then spend like a drunken sailor. If only the Greeks would follow the USA's lead on fiscal responsibility.
This is the deal Germany got after they had to wheel barrow money around to buy a bar of soap...
"The truth is, however, that then-West German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer and Deutsche Bank chairman Hermann Abs knew perfectly well that there would never have been a German “economic miracle,” if Germany had not had 60% of its foreign debt canceled and the remaining debt payments linked to export surpluses. Repayments were only due as long as Germany ran a trade surplus, and were limited to 3% of export earnings"
by Helga Zepp-LaRouche
German fckn HYPOCRITES
Another photo spread?
I see "violent regime change" isn't included in the scenarios.
Rephrased, MS sees Syriza's three choices as continued austerity, Grexit or a coup d'etat. Those three are really only two. If Syriza choose Grexit, they'll get a coup d'etat. Simple as that.
I do like the "staycation" scenario though, and not just because it's most likely at this point. Lovely euphemism for allowing Greek banks to fiddle the proles out of what remains of their life savings.
Bailout=steal taxpayers money...Bailin=steal taxpayers money. I dont understand how the govt tries to fool people by saying bailins wont hurt the taxpayer. Truly Orwellian. Stealing is stealing whether you call it a haircut, bailout, or bailin...or any of the many other euphemisms (lies) used. Vigorous inhalers of roosters (cocksuckers), the lot of 'em.
" The bottom line here is that the supposedly “indissoluble” monetary union is looking more dissoluble by the day and if there’s anything the ECB does not need a week into PSPP it’s for sovereign spreads to blow out as the market begins to price in redenomination risk."
Call me a contrarian, but sounds like exactly what the ECB/NB's need. Higher yields relieve the negative interest problem, and create excess supply which is the sweetener.
anyone want to make a bet that they come up with the $2b? I guarantee they will 10 to one odds.... takers...?
I will still offer them $10 US cash money for their island. Offer ends soon though.
Pay all EU debts in Drachmas
"concept of irrevocability"
A union is only irrevocable if nation states have lost their sovereignty, either by agreement or by conquest. While Greece remains a sovereign nation, there can be no such thing as "irrecovability" unless the shiny new EU army marches in force on Athens to bring Greece to heel. Tony Blair said the EU is about power, however, and might is right.
Dear Mr Tsipras,
Get your hands on whatever funds you can and place the biggest single order of silver you can. This will send the system into a tail spin and the price skywards. At the very least you will have the basis of a silver based currency.
You only have one shot left and this is it. Sure you can default and cause some problems but a silver bullet is the only solution for Dracula Europe.
Carpe diem
PP
I think Tsipras has invested to German DAX index, not to silver
Can you say "$2 billion lease of naval base to the Russians"?
VAROUFAKIS UNDERGOES PLASTIC SURGERY TO ATTRACT EUROPEAN PARTNERS
Greece confident that a handsome Finance Minister will be able to reach a better agreement with Europe: "Varoufakis nose was a liability, but now is an asset".
Source: www.financialpaparazzi.com
This indecision's bugging me
If you don't want me set me free...
HAHAHA
http://www.vevo.com/watch/the-clash/Should-I-Stay-or-Should-I-Go/GB02003...