Pam was so Big she.....

Bruce Krasting's picture

 

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Cyclone Pam was a monster Category 5 storm. It had peak winds of 185 MPH, waves that would crash over a four story building. The barometer fell to 915, the storm's 'eye' was 2o miles across across, the total low pressure area was a million square miles. The islands of Vanuatu got whacked hard.

Okay, this was a big one. One for the books. But I was amazed to learn that Pam had the power to change the weather outlook for a large portion of the globe.

Based on information just released, a significant change in global weather is either upon us today or will will be in a matter of weeks. As the consequences of Pam unfold, tens of millions of people will be affected one way or the other.

Sound like Tin Foil Hat stuff? Maybe. We shall see - in the very near future.

The Australian Government Meteorological Office blew my mind surprised me with this comment (Link):

As a result of severe tropical cyclone Pam in the southern hemisphere, and tropical storm Bavi (category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale) in the northern hemisphere, a strong reversal of the trade winds occurred in the equatorial Pacific just west of the Date Line. This is likely to initiate a downwelling Kelvin Wave and subsequent warming in the ocean sub-surface and potentially surface.

What does that mean? It means that there is, all of a sudden, a very high probability that an El Nino is right around the corner.

Consider this chart released today by the Aussies. Note the average of the forecast models goes into the orange (El Nino territory) in April.

 

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Now look at the same chart from a month ago. The timing and relative strength of the ENSO cycle has increased. The change in outlook is attributable to Pam.

 

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Consider what the models were saying 30 days ago regarding expectations for May. Note that only Model ECMWF predicted a significant upturn in ocean temperatures:

 

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The following chart, released today shows the estimates for the month of April (this is for the period a month before the prior slide), yet it shows a rapidly growing consensus for El Nino.

 

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The following is the report for June. All models are now in El Nino. This is an additional indications of how rapid the coming change will be.

 

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The next slide is the latest estimate for August, 2015 - just four months from today. Note that model ECMWF (prior winner) is suggesting a very strong 2.0 El Nino. All of the models are lined up - A 2015 El Nino event is now 100% certain to happen (if you believe models).

 

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Suppose this comes true - what are the implications? A strong El Nino would result in above average rainfall in the entire Pacific West. It would also relieve the more serious drought conditions now occurring in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

If you believe in any of this you might consider one of the following:

-Buy flood insurance if you live in California.

-Buy lift tickets and rent lodges at the West Coast ski resorts now - tons of snow next winter will cause prices to soar.

-Buy Vail stock.

-Buy cheap/dry farmland in California - it might pop with the rain.

-Buy lake front property on Lake Mead (today the water is hundreds of yards away).

- Buy the stock of Brazilian hydroelectric companies that today have no water to make juice.

-Short coffee beans - (The Brazilian crop will be bumper next year).

-Sell insurance company stocks who underwrite homeowners in California.

-Municipalities in West Coast flood prone areas should make some preparations. These changes will happen in a matter of months.

 

Okay, that stuff is a bit over the top. My point is that many things will change if the rains return to California and Brazil. We shall know soon enough if a significant new weather patterns is in the offing. But assume that this does play out as the meteorologists are now forecasting. What this means is that a big storm in the Pacific, at just the right time and place, can knock global weather into a new loop. Pam was a random event that may have significant and lasting results. The butterfly flapped its wings, there will be broad, unforeseen consequences.

If science can't predict random events that alter weather patterns in significant ways on a month-to-month basis how can those same scientists predict, with such precision, what will happen in fifty-years?

 

1938

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goose3's picture

That was great up until the last sentence.  Weather is not climate, and short-term randomness is not the same as long-term trends.

ptoemmes's picture

And then there is James Inhofe's snowball...in Winter for Christ sakes.

Miss Expectations's picture

Here's Weather Bell...See the Saturday Forecast over to the right.

Snow in Northeast for Easter 

Big tornado season setting up for the spring

http://www.weatherbell.com

Divine Wind's picture

 

 

 

Pam was so big if you poked her in the leg she leaked gravy.

Seize Mars's picture

Pam was so big, when she sat around the house, she sat around the house.

Comte d'herblay's picture

"Weather the weather, whatever the weather, whether you like it or not".

Several years ago I picked Vanuatu as my Fave place to escape to if hilary clinton didn't die, be assassinated, or simply go away forerever with her partner in crime.

Now that option is looking even more affordable with beachfront property likely going for a song.

 

 

 

fredquimby's picture

This world wind map blows my mind whenever I check it.....

Spin the globe to NZ and you can still see the remnants of Pam.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/o...

Waaaaaay cool.

Toolshed's picture

Thanks for the spiffy link!

DeadFred's picture

A great site. A bit of a drain on limited time resources but who can resist an addictive website? I watched Pam develop days ahead of time on this site because they have pretty accurate predictions out to about four days in the future.

basho's picture

" But I was amazed to learn that Pam had the power to change the weather outlook for a large portion of the globe. "

surprise Brucey, everything is connected

patb's picture

unless it shows up as Snowpack, California doesn't do well.

 

 

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Wow, this will make for the fastest 1000 year drought in California history.

Escapeclaws's picture

For sure this article is a very insidious jab at Social Security, but I can't put my finger on just how. Perhaps Pam is a metaphor for the destructivness of Social Secuity and Vanatu in the "Pacific" represents those halcyon times when the invisible hand poored out its blessings of peace and prosperity before Social Security laid waste "to the way things should be". The destructive effects of this curse will yet make themslves felt, like earthquake aftershocks.

lamont cranston's picture

Whut's this sheet about Pam? Hell, we been greasin' Honey Boo Boo's skillets with it when she got fat but didn't do no good, hell. So some bitch ganna make it rain named Pam? Just kinda that Tammy crap on Parks & Rec?

Hell, who gives a shit. We all know Putin's behind this.

Big Brother's picture

I watched this last Saturday.  It presents a different theory as why storms like these arise.  Please see link:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8EE0p9kx5o

the grateful unemployed's picture

well its pretty wierd tonight. after nearly a week of sub 20% humidity and record heat, the humidity came back, along with the heat, from desert to tropical (when does winter end?) all californians know that one hot month in spring does not imply a hotter summer. things seem to balance out. this year we had a big jump on the rain averages early but we fell behind. now temperatures are breaking records, but that doesnt mean summer will be more extreme. its possible el nino will have an effect but it is really too late in our annual rain cycle for very much to happen, and so next year maybe.

farmerbraun's picture

"(when does winter end?)"

 

In a  few days time  it will be  the Spring Equinox; the middle of spring by day-length. By the same calendar the beginning of spring was around the beginning of February  (Imbolc or Oimelg).

Babalooee's picture

Well, Pam's offspring better get on their horses and ride if they plan on rescuing the Sierras this winter, I mean spring. Historically the Sierras are a warm temperature range and these last years have been ever more so.  Each day passing raises the odds of rising freezing levels. And in a decent year, snow is the resevoir for California's resevoirs, helping the distribution through the historically long, dry summers. 

farmerbraun's picture

Down here in New Zealand  Pam was great. Talk about wet. We were all hanging out for it after a dry summer on the East Coast.

All good.

ebworthen's picture

Sun spot activiity and solar energy reaching the Earth has diminished in the past decade.

Global cooling more likely than global warming; and change either way causes...change.

We have absolutely ZERO control over it.  Rain will return to California, and that dry ground will wash.

Mike Honcho's picture

Cold weather doesnt imply rainfall.  Not all deserts have dunes.

q99x2's picture

This butterfly lives in the sun.

HowardBeale's picture

Bruce,

And what initiated a storm so powerful that it could change things so drastically as you claim...

What a waste of space you are. You have to ask yourself at this point in time: Am I a psychopath who will do anything for money? Am I too stupid to understand the scientific method? Or am I just a lazy fuck that can't be bothered to do real research and come to an understanding of reality. Choose.

Billy the Poet's picture
'I made a mistake': Gaia theory scientist James Lovelock admits he was 'alarmist' about the impact of climate change
  • British scientist admits he had 'extrapolated too far' in earlier book
  • Claims other environmental commentators such as Al Gore did the same

Environmental scientist James Lovelock, renowned for his terrifying predictions of climate change's deadly impact on the planet, has gone back on his previous claims, admitting they were 'alarmist'.

The 92-year-old Briton, who also developed the Gaia theory of the Earth as a single organism, has said climate change is still happening - just not as quickly as he once warned.

He added that other environmental commentators, such as former vice president Al Gore, are also guilty of exaggerating their arguments.

The admission comes as a devastating blow to proponents of climate change who regard Lovelock as a powerful figurehead.

Five years ago, he had claimed: 'Before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.'

He admitted: 'I made a mistake.'

He said: 'The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing,' he told   'We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear cut, but it hasn’t happened.

'The climate is doing its usual tricks. There’s nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world.

'[The temperature] has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising - carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that.'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2134092/Gaia-scientist-James-Lovelock-I-alarmist-climate-change.html#ixzz3Uhdr2QfS
donsluck's picture

So, the exaggeration that humans aren't responsible AT ALL, that CO2 levels don't matter, that nothing can be done, isn't "devestating" to the climate change deniers?

rationale's picture

One of the more interesting posts on zh in a while. I'm baffled though, by Krastigs assertion that climatologist make confident precise predictions 50 years out. On the contrary they take long-term trends and try to take what we know about the drivers to make long term forecasts. These are generally given with wide error bands in either direction. They tend to be conservative I their assumptions - just look at the huge miss in arctic sea ice decline which is worse than the most conservative forecast.
Also, tremendous amounts of work has been and continues to be done on the impact of El Niño and its variability.

Billy the Poet's picture

 

 

I'm baffled though, by Krastigs assertion that climatologist make confident precise predictions 50 years out.

 

He's using irony (or sarcasm if you prefer) to imply that climatogists can't make accurate long range predictions.

 

"If science can't predict random events that alter weather patterns in significant ways on a month-to-month basis how can those same scientists predict, with such precision, what will happen in fifty-years?"

TruthInSunshine's picture

Bruce is a limousine liberal who used to work for the parasitic financial sector as a bond trader.

He would love nothing more than to be welcomed back into the tribe of VIP dual-citizens in Manhattan at one of the large "trading/prop firms" if given the chance.

Billy the Poet's picture

How do you believe that impacts the meaning of the cited quotation?

TruthInSunshine's picture

He's trying to get readers to buy into the notion that massive follow-on weather impacts based on a past weather event can be a lucrative financial/investment endeavor based on some insane conjecture (unable to control for the million other variables at play now and soon to come).

Short coffee futures!

Buy California grapes of wrath desert!

DeadFred's picture

This is what you get when you take a nascent tropical storm and pop an X2 solar flare directly overhead. Boom, and it's a Cat 5 just like that.

rsnoble's picture

Pam who?  Haven't been watching the news.

I hope CA does get rain.  Last thing I want is for all those fucks to move inland.  Stay where you're at.

MontgomeryScott's picture

Unfortunately, Superman foiled Lex Luthor's plot to detonate that nuclear device on the San Andreas fault. I was rooting for Lex (and hoping to meet Miss Teshmocker).

Is there a fault line somewhere near Washington, D.C.? Just wondering...

Sincerely,

Alexander Luthor

Post script:

It's 'PAMELA' to YOU, you 'hater'!

<obligatory 'sarc' tag inserted>

lordbyroniv's picture

I skip Bruce Krasting articles cuz hes a statist !!!

williambanzai7's picture

This can only mean one thing: more share buybacks

gmak's picture

Go ahead alarmists. Tell me again how 0.04% of the total atmosphere did this. 

Billy the Poet's picture

Not to mention the fact that the remaining 99.96% of the atmosphere actually has a higher greenhouse potential than CO2 does by itself. So additional CO2 can only dilute the atmosphere's greenhouse potential. Worrying about it is like worrying that a vat of whiskey would become too strong to drink if you added a drop of beer.

kaiserhoff's picture

Pam was so big she...

   exploded your water bed?

MontgomeryScott's picture

Pam was SO BIG...

When she sat around the house, she sat AROUND THE HOUSE!

I don't get no respect! They're a tough crowd tonight!

 

It was a MASSIVE storm. ALMOST unprecedented.

PTR's picture

The volume of earthquakes that Vanuatu gets in the 6+ range makes me wonder why people bother still living there.

Hulk's picture

Pam was SO BIG, that when she walked outside in high heals,she struck oil/water, depending upon your needs...

kevinearick's picture

bipolar cause or effect?

positive or negative feedback?

MEAN BUSINESS's picture

We might see better answers to those questions in the Sixth Assessment Report ~2020 (if it ever gets done) however there is likely some discussion already in AR5.

One more melt before Paris

keep krafting kevinearick : )

MontgomeryScott's picture

"bipolar cause or effect?

"positive or negative feedback?"

A sadist and a masochist were stranded on a desert island. They went months without talking.

Finally, the masochist broke the silence. "Hit, me, damnit, hit me!"

The sadist grinned, and replied, "NO! NO!"

Lumberjack's picture

To which I add…

http://www.insidepolitics.org/heard/heard32300.html

Would you have a surgeon with grades like that operate on you, fix your roof or electrical or even your car? These guys are pushing global warming and fail at science, religion (Gore also failed divinity school), and yes, Enron was Bush's baby along with bullshit wars. Do you want leaders who get D grades and/or just pass because someone knew somebody who could fix a failing grade(s)?

What was Yale teaching?  Same goes for Harvard, especially in the economics, political and psychological fields and those who followed suit.

 

That said, with the student loan problem (and it isn't the students per sey, or for that anything else except for those who fell for the gig in the first place),  the problems exist in the educational and media system...across the board. WHO were the smart asses that fucked this up as bad as they did? Now look at these assholes scramble for every excuse in the book to place the blame elsewhere and now comes the accounting phase of who done what... 

azusgm's picture

Itching to post a short video of my nephew's 2-1/2 year old daughter spelling her 3-syllable name then pronouncing it. She knows her letters and numbers and is starting to learn addition.

Homeschooling for the win!

kaiserhoff's picture

Fascinating, sooo... where are Barry's transcripts?

Oh Bejesus I forgot.  They are a state secret, protected by Barry's NUMBER ONE executive order!

Why is that ya think?  Why is the Lame Streem Media constantly yapping about everything except the most obvious treason?