This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Pam was so Big she.....
Cyclone Pam was a monster Category 5 storm. It had peak winds of 185 MPH, waves that would crash over a four story building. The barometer fell to 915, the storm's 'eye' was 2o miles across across, the total low pressure area was a million square miles. The islands of Vanuatu got whacked hard.
Okay, this was a big one. One for the books. But I was amazed to learn that Pam had the power to change the weather outlook for a large portion of the globe.
Based on information just released, a significant change in global weather is either upon us today or will will be in a matter of weeks. As the consequences of Pam unfold, tens of millions of people will be affected one way or the other.
Sound like Tin Foil Hat stuff? Maybe. We shall see - in the very near future.
The Australian Government Meteorological Office blew my mind surprised me with this comment (Link):
As a result of severe tropical cyclone Pam in the southern hemisphere, and tropical storm Bavi (category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale) in the northern hemisphere, a strong reversal of the trade winds occurred in the equatorial Pacific just west of the Date Line. This is likely to initiate a downwelling Kelvin Wave and subsequent warming in the ocean sub-surface and potentially surface.
What does that mean? It means that there is, all of a sudden, a very high probability that an El Nino is right around the corner.
Consider this chart released today by the Aussies. Note the average of the forecast models goes into the orange (El Nino territory) in April.
Now look at the same chart from a month ago. The timing and relative strength of the ENSO cycle has increased. The change in outlook is attributable to Pam.
Consider what the models were saying 30 days ago regarding expectations for May. Note that only Model ECMWF predicted a significant upturn in ocean temperatures:
The following chart, released today shows the estimates for the month of April (this is for the period a month before the prior slide), yet it shows a rapidly growing consensus for El Nino.
The following is the report for June. All models are now in El Nino. This is an additional indications of how rapid the coming change will be.
The next slide is the latest estimate for August, 2015 - just four months from today. Note that model ECMWF (prior winner) is suggesting a very strong 2.0 El Nino. All of the models are lined up - A 2015 El Nino event is now 100% certain to happen (if you believe models).
Suppose this comes true - what are the implications? A strong El Nino would result in above average rainfall in the entire Pacific West. It would also relieve the more serious drought conditions now occurring in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
If you believe in any of this you might consider one of the following:
-Buy flood insurance if you live in California.
-Buy lift tickets and rent lodges at the West Coast ski resorts now - tons of snow next winter will cause prices to soar.
-Buy Vail stock.
-Buy cheap/dry farmland in California - it might pop with the rain.
-Buy lake front property on Lake Mead (today the water is hundreds of yards away).
- Buy the stock of Brazilian hydroelectric companies that today have no water to make juice.
-Short coffee beans - (The Brazilian crop will be bumper next year).
-Sell insurance company stocks who underwrite homeowners in California.
-Municipalities in West Coast flood prone areas should make some preparations. These changes will happen in a matter of months.
Okay, that stuff is a bit over the top. My point is that many things will change if the rains return to California and Brazil. We shall know soon enough if a significant new weather patterns is in the offing. But assume that this does play out as the meteorologists are now forecasting. What this means is that a big storm in the Pacific, at just the right time and place, can knock global weather into a new loop. Pam was a random event that may have significant and lasting results. The butterfly flapped its wings, there will be broad, unforeseen consequences.
If science can't predict random events that alter weather patterns in significant ways on a month-to-month basis how can those same scientists predict, with such precision, what will happen in fifty-years?
1938
»
- advertisements -
Credibility trap. Most of America is in it..., I have friends and family who will never acknowledge Obama's bullshit simply because they voted for him. If it doesn't have a "D" next to the name, they never mark it. Period.
But how are we going to get our carbon tax if we don't predict dire consequences 50 years out?
edit: I do hope Calif gets some useful rain; we don't need higher food prices right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8
The irony of course is that abide by the most strict form of "climatology" are the ones getting crushed with a massive drought.
So the obvious answer is to head to Vegas and blow everything before it's too late!
Heck...can't get a loan? NO PROBLEM, EVEN BETTER!
Seriously...God wrote that book for a reason folks. The whole thing is a parable about money and its evil ways.
Ultimately no less than Rome was destroyed by what the Bible warned us about...and so are we.
The Joke of course is "all in God's name" of course...
That little butterfly I saw on the daisies this morning will cause violent thunderstorms over the Russian steppes in July 2016.
The neighbor's cat has taken a liking to me these past years. I opened my back door this morning and found the carcass of a bird (sans head) sitting neatly placed on the step. of course, I was wondering how many butterflies this bird had eaten before the cat decided to rip it's head off and eat it (placing the carcass on my back step neatly; like a trusted animal does to show fealty).
NO BULLSHIT (except for the part about the wonderment regarding butterflies).
The cat came to see me on my back porch after I arrived home, and I petted her, telling her she was a GOOD cat for doing what she was made to do. I hope that the Russians won't be affected by my actions (or the actions of my neighbor's cat in killing the bird and ripping it's head off and placing it directly in the center of the back door opening on my porch).
The little butterfly you saw this morning was sent by Satan, I assume, 'Stuck'. In fact, ALL Butterflies are all terrorists (in a sense). They flap their evil, pretty, whore-like tempting wings, and the weather changes globally...
SAVED by Zero:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rp3YQEYcEhU
my childhood pet was a Calico cat. She would bring lizards to the patio door; lizards (one at a time) with their guts eaten out.
Smart cat - went for the Lizard filet !
I grew up in Orange County CA - Huntington Beach - in the 60's and 70's. That time period was Golden California. It was desert then and Nature will return it to natural state over the many years in the future. I believe the weather reversion to its historical mean is happening now. California is a desert and will always be a desert.
NoVa
I used to ride my motorcycle through the few miles left of orange groves in Irvine in the 70's and the scent of oranges was overwhelming. On returning to my local watering hole in Seal Beach, everybody knew you had ridden through Irvine because the orange oil on your clothes cut through the smelly smoke filled air in the bar.
Those were some great years of bikes, beach bunnies and bar rooms without a care in the world. I would have appreciated them more had I known they wouldn't last forever.
MS, thanks for that, it puts a tad of balance into my morning doom out, ha...
El Nino is already here Bruce. It is probably too late for any real snow pack in CA, and if you're relying on El Nino to end a drought, good luck. Some of the really big droughts in history did have some very wet years. Preceded and followed by very, very dry years. Droughts can last for decades and centuries and they can have several very wet years while overall there is not enough water. Droughts, from year to year, can look like dry dry dry dry dry, wet, wet, wet, dry dry dry dry dry dry dry, wet wet, dry dry dry dry dry dry, wet, dry, wet, dry, wet, dry dry dry dry dry, etc...
And people won't believe that they're in a drought until crops fail and people die because of those few wet years. A few years ago, it was so dry here that the muzzle flash from a .223 would ignite the vegetation. I don't know if we're in a temporary reprieve, or if the drought is done. The only thing I can do is live to see what the answer is.
That being said, a strong El Nino typically means summer rains for me, so I'll take it. But I won't rely on it.
Weak el nino, per NASA....
what do they know...?