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Q1 GDP Now Just 0.3% According To Fed Model
When we first exposed the world to The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting model (just 2 weeks ago), expectations were for 1.2% growth in GDP in Q1. A week later it was cut in half to 0.6% as dismal data just poured on. And today, The Fed model now predicts another 50% cut in growth to just 0.3% in Q1, led by a near 20% collapse in non-residential investment.
March 3rd... +1.2%
March 12th... cut in half to +0.6%
And now... March 18th... another 50% cut in growth to a mere +0.3%
As The Atlanta Fed explains...
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.3 percent on March 17, down from 0.6 percent on March 12.
Following yesterday morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board that reported a 17 percent decline in oil and gas well drilling in February, the nowcast for first-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth fell from -13.3 percent to -19.6 percent.
And that decline is only getting started...
* * *
In Gartman-esque terms, the trend for US economic growth appears to be from upper left to lower right... and accelerating
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No rate hike
More QE
Stocks will cheer.
UE IS 5.5% !!!
Raise those rates, Mr. Yellen (Moshe), you Woody Allen twin-speak, bowl cut, midget boob, FFS!!!
Got that right - 'she' sure as bloody hell ain't a 'BBW', that's for certain...
So, "un-seasonally adjusted" and with an inflation measurement like the ones used in the 80s that were a lot more honest , our actual GDP was probably NEGATIVE 3-4% or so. I'll go with that number instead.
i'm not too sure about that anymore. there is a level that people get to that they understand something is wrong. Then again, there is very little alternative to stocks for some sort of yield and (more importantly by now), relative safety (confiscation, bank runs, physical threat etc). Losing only 50% is perhaps better than 100% with the alternatives...
Yes and some gold/zilver/platinum etc, but not for 100%
Keep on dancing, but stay near the exit
FANTASY LAND ECONOMICS CONTINUES !!
but it is still a recovery, gdp + 0.3%, good ?
You still have to subtract out the deficit spending to see what the real economy less unpayable debt is doing, what about 4-5% GDP?
So, real, effective GDP of about -4-5%.
Of course we've been there since Obamco got in office with trillion dollar deficits.
.
And the correct defator, more like -8/9 %.
Just don't look down, whatever you do.
"the correct defator, more like -8/9 %. "
The leverage masks the lies.
Yah but 8% 6 years running is 48% or nearly 50% reduction in GDP. Things aren't that bad on the surface right? They must be hiding a lot of this toxic crap under thousands of feet of crap, err debt.
Recently they changed statistical methodology to push up GDP. Even with that, they could only squeeze out a measly .3% growth(obviously with some goal-seeking)?
Ok, now we have the pig in place....add lipstick in 3...2...1....
What's this? No happy St. Party's your layed off drinking games? You guys are all fukin work and no play around here...
well, someone has to work
i'm assuming O will be spending his time (like past few years) with ESPN filling out his basketball bracket
filling out his basketball bracket....that is code for massaging the anus for smoother entry.
I have a wicked cold.
I am damned, to have been given such a drinking interfering virus, on St. Patrick's Day, like a bad case of the clap from kissing Lassie Erin McKringleberries Blarney Stone when I was all of a lad of 15 meself.
The admiration I have for that man. The pressure to make those picks would be immobilizing.
Give the guy a third term!
Not to worry, we can always manipulate the CPI lower by a few percent lower adding a few percent to the real GDP. This game has been played since the early 1980s.
If you correct US GDP for this fake CPI adjustment, real US GDP is $7 to $8 trillion instead of $17 trillion.
Truth is treason in a fascist, police state.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
I just wish he hadn't jumped the looney by making (and sticking to) his 'hyperinflation' forecasts since 2010. It somewhat tarnished an otherwise impeccable position and data series.
Ya. While I do admire the balls it takes to make a call like that, it does tend to make him less convincing to some people, which is a shame because he puts out some great info.
Damn, the futures so bright, just like the core of a nuclear detonation.....
Blue Chip Consensus.
Son, get in here. Sorry, last homeschooling lesson for today.
We have no clue or we are a bunch of shit flinging apes. That is what is known as a Blue Chip Consensus.
Go play.
blame it on the weather, transitory, irratiional exhuberence, patience, BULLISH.
Dow 20,000...
Gold $20...
Silver free.....
No way. They are going to pay us to take Silver off their hands. The LCS will just show up at your door with a dolly and pay you. Come on...answer the fucking door...I gottah get rid of this shit.
yeah...
peeking ot the blinds waiting for them to show up any minute now....
cheers...
You know when gold has topped? When the shoeshine boy tells you to buy some.
When there are commercials on TV, "Buy GOLD from us! The price is up 1000% in the last 5 years. Get it while its HOT!"
And stores open up, "BUY GOLD HERE" (right now the stores say "We BUY your broken or unwanted GOLD")
"The United States had been on a de facto gold standard since the 1830s and de jure gold standard since 1900. In 1913 the gold standard was built into the framework of the Federal Reserve. The law required the Federal Reserve to hold gold equal to 40 percent of the value of the currency it issued (technically termed the Federal Reserve Note but colloquially called the dollar) and to convert those dollars into gold at a fixed price of $20.67 per ounce of pure gold.
The Federal Reserve typically held more than enough gold to back the currency it had issued. Bankers called the excess “free gold.” The Federal Reserve needed a stock of free gold sufficient to satisfy redemption requests that might occur in the near future. The Federal Reserve could increase the stock of free gold by increasing interest rates, which encouraged Americans to deposit in banks and encouraged foreigners to invest in the United States, shifting gold from the pockets of the public (both here and abroad) to the vaults of Federal Reserve district and member banks. Conversely, when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, gold would flow from its coffers into the hands of the public both at home and overseas.
During the financial crisis of 1933 that culminated in the banking holiday in March 1933, large quantities of gold flowed out from the Federal Reserve. Some of this outflow went to individuals and firms in the United States. This domestic drain occurred because individuals and firms preferred holding metallic gold to bank deposits or paper currency. Some of the gold flowed to foreign nations. This external drain occurred because foreign investors feared a devaluation of the dollar. Together, the internal and external drains consumed the Federal Reserve’s free gold. In March 1933, when the Federal Reserve Bank of New York could no longer honor its commitment to convert currency to gold, President Franklin Roosevelt declared a national banking holiday.
The Roosevelt administration’s policies regarding gold responded to this crisis. The policies unfolded through three phases. During the first phase, in the spring and summer of 1933, the Roosevelt administration suspended the gold standard. In March 1933, the Emergency Banking Act gave the president the power to control international and domestic gold movements. It also gave the secretary of the treasury the power to compel surrender of gold coins and certificates. The administration waited before employing these powers, in hope that the situation would correct itself, but gold outflows continued.
On April 20, President Roosevelt issued a proclamation that formally suspended the gold standard. The proclamation prohibited exports of gold and prohibited the Treasury and financial institutions from converting currency and deposits into gold coins and ingots. The actions halted gold outflows."
You'll know 'it is time' for gold, when the U.S. performs its final act of arrogance in either a border state of Russia, or in the South/East China seas. That is pretty much all that awaits in my view. Russia and China are not going to pre-empt it, but they are preparing for it at breakneck pace.
As a Midwesterner, I must be misunderstanding Janet's Brooklyn accent, 'cause I thought she said the Fed were gonna move in a "beta-dependent" fashion, I assumed no hikes if any 20 DMAs breached ...
"And that decline is only getting started..."
and just wait ... till recent numbers out ... are revised ... downward
So 50% cut each time. At least we'll never get to zero.
The Fed needs to stop reading about Zeno's paradoxes.
Citizens riot after ANOTHER drunk Ukraine soldier has accident in a tank, kills young girl
The crash is almost becoming sexually arousing.
Like hate fucking.
Dibs on Jen Psaki when it is time.
It's a stage of the forth turning. Conspiracy theorists become sexy!
If it doesn't crash within 4 hours, call your doctor
If it doesn't crash in four hours call a friend.
.
redbook and ICSC - goldman same store retail sales out today (for last week) ... both weak and below expectation
Good time for the FED to let the market fall so they can scare the politicians again and have an excuse to launch more QE and get them out of their boxed in situation.
sure, why not? ... the ink is dry on the december lamed duck legislation that backstopped derivative losses for banks ...
taxpayer has no qualms for unlimited exposure to losses in order that wall street hot shots can earn 7 / 8 figure bonuses
http://www.loopnet.com/Atlanta_Georgia_Market-Trends?Trends=AskingPrices...
Have a look at the Atlanta Office/industrial space trends.
Decide for yourself...but do not deceive yourself.
Recession Dead Ahead
Check the forecast again tomorrow when Grannyellen announces their latest patience/qe/pomo intentions or lack there of.
Oh, and how much more accurate is this GDP model than the other one? Aren't they all a bunch of fabrications and misdirections?
Well...not that Wall Street doesnt have a bias of course...but I imagine the Fed dude from Atlanta wants to know how Atlanta is doing more than the Securitizer in Chief.
Otherwise whats going on in Missouri might look like an opening salvo.
The FED despirately needs a rate increase to justify their existance. See, we printed a lot of fiat for our friends but look, we saved the world from catastrophy.
If your model doesn't work anymore, change the model.
Consistency in this market is deception.
Another bumper sticker slogan.
Quarter's not over yet--could very well be negative.
This is just an estimate. It could be negative RIGHT NOW.
They are gonna have to adjust this qaurter to be 4 months long.
New month by executive order: Obamuary.
What are the odds that 50% of the Macros change direction in the next two months before the initial print?
Because that's about what it would take to print positive at this point.
Don't worry, M2M says that even if they miss June, that it will only be a 'temporary' delay until the real deal in September - 'cause it's happened that way in the past and isn't unusual...
Bernanke, QE is working wonders. Fantastic job numb nuts. I think ZIRP and QE is working so well, we should do more of it.
Hey retards at the fed, time to change strategy.
They always have the weather to blame.
Mr Scott ... we need more power... go to Warp 10 on the money printing ...
But Captun... she can't take ... she'll blow apart...
I don't care Scotty ... if we don't go to Warp 10 we'll blow apart anyway .... so make it so
Aye aye captun....
0.3%?
and you know damn well it's a lot worse
This can't be right! I heard on MSNBC that the US economic recovery was robust.
Sure am glad they(the ignoramus American electorate) elected that bright, clean, articulate negro to the highest office so that he could fundamentally transform the nation.
GDP is actually 3%, they're just a little sloppy with the decimal point.