"A Chaotic Balance Of Terror" - The Greek Government's Four Scenarios

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Alexis Papachelas via ekathimerini,

Where is the Greek government going with its approach? Is it heading for a rift with Berlin and the other creditors or kicking up dust before it achieves a compromise? Why has it dramatically reopened, even with the involvement of the prime minister, the issue of World War II reparations? Four scenarios present themselves and hold the possible answer:

1. Premier Alexis Tsipras is acting a lot like Andreas Papandreou. By taking on the Germans, he’s pushing the envelope and will ultimately present Parliament with a bill for measures and reforms. He’s masking this intention with skillful rhetoric.

 

2. The government knows that in around a fortnight the state will run out of money and commitments will not be met. It is afraid of the political and social consequences of such a development and is intentionally creating an atmosphere of hostility to incriminate Berlin if banks collapse and the state stops paying salaries and pensions.

 

3. The government has decided that a compromise cannot be reached with the country’s creditors and is playing a double game: It is negotiating and bringing technical teams to Athens to show that it’s conforming, but is actually preparing for a velvet exit from the eurozone via a dual currency or payment of obligations with special bonds.

 

4. The government is in the grips of the amateurism and fanaticism that is occasionally evident in the ruling SYRIZA party, and is pushing the country to the edge without even Tsipras being aware of it. The tension with Germany, meanwhile, is building into a self-perpetuating nightmare.

The other question is, what are Greece’s creditors trying to achieve? None of them wants to be cast as the bad guy. They are obviously weighing their next move. In Berlin, those responsible for foreign policy are telling Chancellor Angela Merkel to tread carefully. They are concerned with the spread of anti-German sentiment in Europe, the possibility of Greece becoming a failed state and even the scenario that Athens may pursue much closer ties with Moscow or Beijing. On the other hand, the creditors have run out of patience with the Greek government and some in Europe argue that Greeks will only become aware of the gravity of the situation if the country has a near-death experience, such as a pay freeze or the imposition of capital controls. That would already have happened if the ECB and IMF technocrats had not warned of the consequences.

So now we are in a chaotic balance of terror. It is almost impossible to guess how Tsipras will complete the negotiations, impose the plan in Greece and then implement it. He will have to make some very serious changes. Elections and referendums are not the solution. They may buy him time but he will soon face the same predicament again. He will soon have to choose between displeasing his party or displeasing the creditors – with whatever consequences both entail.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
TheSecondLaw's picture

In other words:  Fucked.

stocktivity's picture

It's all Bullshit!!!  Old Yellen thinks the markets are over extended and then throws the market a 220+ point bone to chew on.

Manthong's picture

Fifth scenario:

5a. They could smuggle their billions in German and French military armament imports to the ECB protestors in Frankfurt.

5b. They could fill their German submarines with soiled Greek underwear taken from homeless Athenians after an August heat wave and return the subs back for credit.

The Submarine Deals That Helped Sink Greece

 

Kotzbomber747's picture

I'd guess option number 4.

When looking at YouTube footage of Yanis Varoufakis, I can't help but detect a strong tone of youthful naïveté that is often found in hippies, flowerpower types and upcoming Marxists.

Peter Pan's picture

Four options?

Which horeseman of the Apocalypse do you want?

The option I prefer is a market based reality free of overt political and economic manipulation that will yield a sustainable solution despite any short term chaos and pain.

Manthong's picture

"My greatest fear, now that I have tossed my hat in the ring, is that I may turn into a politician. As an antidote to that virus I intend to write my resignation letter and keep it in my inside pocket, ready to submit it the moment I sense signs of losing the commitment to speak truth to power."

-Yanis Varoufakis

Zoomorph's picture

reality ... will yield a sustainable solution despite any short term chaos and pain

No evidence of that. It seems more likely that reality will continue to yield an endless amount of chaos and pain (and pleasure, which goes hand in hand with pain).

El Vaquero's picture

5. Tsipras and crew have either sold out or have been blackmailed into folding and the rape of Greece will continue until it cannot go on any further.

SofaPapa's picture

Yes.  The only question is are we there (where there is no further to go) yet.  The time between deadlines is compressing rapidly.  Could we actually be near the Grexit, whether the parties involved want it or not?

agent default's picture

You don't understand the so called radical left in Europe.  They will not change their minds and they will not change the subject either.  If Tsipras comes to any sort of austerity type agreement, the party will revolt.  Greece is headed for another election.

TuPhat's picture

He can be as two faced as possible until it doesn't work anymore.

Youri Carma's picture

Germany should look at paying Greece war reparations, say some Berlin lawmakers
17 March 2015, Berlin (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/17/us-eurozone-greece-germany-reparations-idUSKBN0MD1GH20150317

Several senior Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens have for the first time said Germany should consider paying reparations to Greece for Nazi crimes committed during World War Two, breaking ranks with Angela Merkel's government which has ruled this out.

Vullsain's picture

What would Greece do when that money runs out?

ted41776's picture

because elections matter!

/sarc

zikos's picture

Remarkable is the fact that one only a Greek journalist has participated in a meeting of the bilderberg Club, 2002 and 2008, in Virginia, USA, ("trained" in the US) Alexis Papahelas.

skistroni's picture

A very accurate observation.

Which is exactly why we should pay special attention to what is said, because the way these parasites work is by spreading seemingly (and I stress seemingly) knowledgeable, neutral and important "views" which are a cover for their next plans, and when these are implemented they come out as modern prophets, always supported by the sold-off media status quo. 

To the witty, Papahelas is showing where our next line of resistance should be. A bipartisan government is in the works to further the policies of submission. It's a pity that very few people can read between the lines. 

TNTARG's picture

"Full list of Bilderberg 2013 Attendees

AlexisPapahelas, Executive Editor, Kathimerini Newspaper"

 

No further questions.

Ghordius's picture

the endless fascination of the Bilderberg Meetings never stops

as a short reminder, they are a product of... Freedom and Liberty. Yes, many powerful attend. They discuss openly matters of importance. And they invite... journalists

what are the only two restrictions on this meeting?

well, the list of attendees, of course, as in all private meetings. and that the attending journalists may use what was discussed... without mentioning who said what

so be very, very careful about Bilderberg Meetings. If you start to think how you could forbid them... that rabbit hole goes very deep, and could swallow more then you might want

davidalan1's picture

Gawd forbid...."displease the creditors or displease the party"-- hmmmmm decisions, decisions. What would one do in that situation?

 

cossack55's picture

Easy. Which group has the shortest ropes.

Harbanger's picture

They don't have an economic plan without the creditors.  Did you hear of any plan?  Syriza folk think money just magically happens, like the left in the US.  Even if they went to their own currency, they would have to imposed self austerity anyway.  They don't really have a choice.  The Greek politicians need someone to blame for the disaster just as much as the German politicians,

vote_libertarian_party's picture

...and then billions mysteriously show up in their coffers and everything is fixed!!!

economessed's picture

As Damit "Captain Kangaroo" Yelling says, there is no problem in the universe that can't be solved with patience and an infinite amount of digital money creation.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

As Damit "Captain Kangaroo" Yelling says,

Yellen's theme:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csorirBIWgw

there is no problem in the universe that can't be solved with patience and an infinite amount of digital money creation.

Eeeeeat your greens...

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Scenario #5

Greek goverment could have for all we know been quietly counterfitting paper Euros with the printing press in their terrortory, saving it as 'financial nuclear option' if the ECB ever cut off the money flowing in. I'm sure they'd have no shortage of accomplices (think PIIGS banks) that would 'inject' all those euros into the system at once using derivatives exposure as the injection method. Think of the shitshow that would cause the whole entire banking system scrambling to stop it.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

If only.  If only.

That would be better than bad sex.

Harbanger's picture

Syriza describes itself as a coalition of radical leftist.  Do you really think they have any clue about economics?  Of course not.  They're looking to remove capital from the plebs as fast as they can.  They actually want to use tourists as tax spies?  Thats crazy.  If anything they'll be the first to eliminate paper money.

Wilcox1's picture

Looks like #4 with some #2 thrown in

tarabel's picture

 

 

How did you go bankrupt?

At first a little at a time, and then very quickly.

Greece only has two options:

1) Go back to riding donkeys to work and selling olives to tourists from roadside stands.

or

2) Bow down to the Golden Rule-- those who have the gold (i.e., not the Greeks) make the rules. 

 

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

We also don't know just how much gold they do have that the ECB and such haven't gotten their hands on either. They may have enough to float a Drachma without pegging it to gold with the understanding it is collateral aka invisible loan from a 3rd party allowing them to pay with Drachma's as the substitute.

hairball48's picture

I went long Greek donkey carts back in 2012. It was a good bet then, and it's better now.

hairball

Magooo's picture

Why not just have Russia China and the US uleash a massive barrage of nuclear missiles into Athens and put the country out of its misery (sarc... maybe...)

edotabin's picture

ahhh yes, missile porn again.

cwsuisse's picture

Scenario One is based on the assumption that reforms can bring Greece back on track to finally redeem its financial obligations or to keeping them at least current. I do not agree. The lemon has been squeezed to the point of final dryness. At least there seems no balance possible between allocation of remaining funds to debt-service and the maintenance of the population. Scenario One should be deleted from the list.

NordikAvenger's picture

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shite

 

 

 

 

Shite