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ECB Prepares For Grexit, Anticipates 95% Loss On Greek Debt
Dear Greek readers: the writing is now on the wall, and it is in very clear 48-point, double bold, and underlined font: when the ECB "leaks" that it is modelling a Grexit, something Draghi lied about over and over in 2012 and directly in our face too, take it seriously, because it is time to start planning about what happens on "the day after." And incidentally to all those curious what the fair value of peripheral European bonds is excluding ECB backstops, the ECB has a handy back of the envelope calculation: a 95% loss.
Which also is the punchline, because while the ECB is making it very clear what happens next in the case of a "Graccident", it has yet to provide an explanation how it will resolve the billions of Greek debt held on its own balance sheet which are about to be "marked-to-default"...
... and on which it is prohibited from suffering a loss, or else Draghi will have to fabricate even more on the run rules about how the ECB balance sheet is loss-proof... expect in this case, or that, or the other.
From Manager Magazin, google-translated:
The European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing for a possible Greek exit from the euro zone. In internal model calculations, the central bank has already calculated the consequences of different scenarios on the prices of Greek government bonds.
Fernando González Miranda, head of risk analysis of the ECB, assumed for his model calculations three different developments of the Greek crisis, the magazine reports. These variants have also been presented to our colleagues from the Bundesbank few days ago.
Under this method, the value of Greek government debt - currently around € 320 billion - in the event of a sudden, "accident-like" Farewell to the Greeks from the Euro-zone ("Graccident") shrink to around 5 percent of the principal amount. If it were the Greek Government, however, to complete the withdrawal on the basis of ordered negotiations ("Grexit"), the ECB expects a residual value of government bonds by nearly 14 percent. And should it even create the country to negotiate a recent haircut, without having to give up the single currency, the government securities could keep at least a quarter of its original value.
A central bankers feared compared with manager magazin especially the "Graccident". The risk is high that the Greek government members "lose track and suddenly unable to settle their bills." In such a case, the rating agencies Greece would classify as necessarily insolvent, with the result that the central bank should have stopped emergency loans.
Or summarized :
Take this opportunity to reread the Goldman piece on whether Greece "can just print Drachmas" because it is about to be revised by the author.
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Re-establish Glass Seagall Act, watch phoney wealth go south in a jippy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p13yZAjhU0M
How about listening to it done right by the Ventures?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bKG0p6Tv9Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p13yZAjhU0M
fair trade RU/CN bailout GR.
EU bailout UE
RU/CN win. lol
You would be lucky to get 5% back!!!!
On behalf of the entire anti-Semitic Zero Hedge community, I'd like to congratulate Benjamin Netanyahu on his recent electoral victory.
Go, Bibi, Go!
iofera, -- where's the Semite? I only see common whites.
Unfortunately, the Ashkanazi's be runnin the show over there, as well as here.
Just like they ran the show in Weimar Germany, well at least ran it for awhile.
Bennie is not a common white. He is a Khazar. They have no connection to biblical Israel.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Greece's problems are so (b)anal .... welfare state issues .... Bibi is fighting for Israel's survival .... a job for a real mensch .... not some whiny Greek pussy Socialist !
The Grexit is bullshit! We do not see a Grexit.
If we see the Grexit, than the EURO will be dead in 24h!
So Grexit maybe at the End of the System. (as a Black Shwan)
leave already..man up!
with a crowbar
Tsipras goes to see Vlad and ECB let's a rumour out that they are preparing for Grexit? What a timing.
Don't forget the Austrian banking issues...
grexit 5 years of prep. If there allowed to exit every country wants OUT. so It ain't happenin.
Don't think so anymore. Italy and Spain have very viable industrial economies that are benefiting from the Euro. Spain has more hectares of agriculture under glass and tarp than any other place on the planet. They're very innovative and the Euro has helped them. There are benefits to a common currency but everyone needs to make an effort and do their part. The corrupt political families have run the Greek economy into the ground. There is no recovery from that.
The problem of tax evasion is systemic in Greece. Once the Greeks sort themselves out of their cultural and political mess, they may have a chance to afford the welfare state they've created.
Instead however, they will dig up 70 year old bodies and ask for more money from Germany. Gotta be careful. They could ask for reparations from Rome as well.... Did Napoleon ever invade them? Napoleon has a tomb that the French visit and where they pay their respects to their former leader and emperor.
Germany should seek a merger with France and just give up being German. Declare the end of Germany by name and adopt another name, do a rebranding. The liabilities will all cease to exist because Germany is dead.
BRICS & SCO Joint Summits in Ufa, Russia this July.
Greece will be there. Greece will join both the EEU & SCO this July. This is the moment Greece defaults on the debts - early July. The clock is ticking. We are nearing 100 days to the bomb going off. Buy your physical!!! Only a few months to go.........
Out of all Forex probably till at least Tues just in case.
Did buy spot gold with no margin instead.
I think it's time for some deadpool betting. Who goes first, Kieth Richards or Greece?
What Grexit? Draghi is on a party right now. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-18/ecb-besieged-by-protes...
And? It will only bankrupt some small countries in Europe. So what? They deserve it, if they wouldn't be so stupid, they would not run into Euro-Zone. Slovenia Slovakia Croatia Estonia maybe all 4 will be within 1 month after Grexit bankrupt.
Greek Exposure of Slovakia : 40% of annual GDP, or 8,3 bn
Preparing for somthing and it actually happening are two different things. Greece will fold and stay in the Euro.
Good news. Grexit now. Liberation from the ECB fascist regime.
"So how many European banks will suddenly fail? What about options losees? "
Made whole again by the tax payers. Banks are not allowed to fail in this new controlled economy.
The only certainty is that the little ZWO banking cabal will NOT suffer any loss. Taxpayers in all involved countries will however.
Randy Quaid and his wife sex tapes hahahahaha what has this world come to?
https://vid.me/u/RandyQuaid
Beware of Greeks bearing bonds.
Surprised it is as low as 95%.
Grexit is just a matter of time now that Greece has invoked Godwin's law to GERMANY.
grexit means the euro crashes so the losses will be several 100%. eurozone commits nailgun suicide or, more appropriately, olive oil vat drowning.
May I repeat here.
The 'entities' Greece, Germany, France, governments & banks etc. do not exist.
People exist.
There are ordinary people, and there are politico-bankers.
There are no wars between 'countries'.......
........ wars are between ordinary people and politico-bankers
How do the Greek people benefit from being in the euro again? How about the Spanish, French, Germans, etc? That's right, not at all. It's just consolidating power for the JWO, unless traveling from one country to the other without a visa is some huge benefit that outweighs all the ECB constraints and social engineering rules of the eurozone.
Germans are worried about the Greeks when they don't bat an eye at GIVING rabid Israel 6 nuclear subs?
Greece has been given Hobson's choice by its German and Troika masters ; accept what we have to offer or its the highway.
Mutti is adamant on that. But the ECB seems befuddled --all the while it pedals QE-- and EU (apparently) are not on that page (what about IMF?).
So Yanis, Quo Vadis Greece? Are you gonna choose the horse Hobson offers you ?
In the meantime Mutti's government is gnashing its teeth at the french who behind the scenes want Greece to have its cake and eat it!
Some tower of babel, but Draghi feels, once he has his QE gun positioned, Greece in or out, will be a Lehman that will not occur or will not deter.
Babel babblings or true economics of a third kind? --(Maybe Krugman knows the answer beamed down from the Martians).
Talk about a Goat F%$#K....
Everbody's in debt the big Blood Moon / Shemittah approaching etc. Seems all to conveinent & coincidental to be happenstance.
The beatings will continue until the Morale improves...
The Stupid it burns.....
>>>
- in the event of a sudden, "accident-like" Farewell to the Greeks from the Euro-zone ("Graccident") shrink to around 5 percent of the principal amount. If it were the Greek Government, however, to complete the withdrawal on the basis of ordered negotiations ("Grexit"), the ECB expects a residual value of government bonds by nearly 14 percent. And should it even create the country to negotiate a recent haircut, without having to give up the single currency, the government securities could keep at least a quarter of its original value.
<<<
I entirely disagree.
Either the Greeks give some notice to the ECB etc., that they are not making any further payments, or they give none.
In either case the residual value of the bonds is low, _but is the same_ (what additional value does notice give to the bond-holder?)
One question: wasn't some (at least) of this debt under English (not Greek law)?
And, if so, doesn't that mean that anyone owning such a bond can go to an English Court with a copy of the Greek announcement, and ask for a charging order over any Greek state assets held within English jurisdiction (or in a country with suitable enforcement agreements with the UK).
I was thinking of Embassy buildings, etc - do the Greeks own their Embassy in London?
Watson
Kyrgyz citizen Manass a reserve officer, who voluntarily went to war to the east of Ukraine. More than half a year he has served the self-proclaimed "People's Republic of Luhansk" (LTR) power now "Radio Free Europe" Kyrgyz Service man discovers that it is deeply disappointed that Russia is about what is happening in Ukraine distributes a complete misinformation that do not meet reality.
Manass Donbas got in August 2014, but the contract for warfare pro-Russian forces entered only in November.
"There I found myself on a voluntary basis. I watched TV - the first channel RTR, others. I had important symbolic that in 1941 my grandfather died. That moral values called me. TV channel reported that there Fascists raised his head, showed a swastika," says the USSR during the senior military educated gentleman.
Ukraine, he entered through the border crossing point "Izvarino". After five days checked his papers, certificate of military service and military educational institution diploma.
"We held five days a filtration point, examined the documents stated specialty," says Manass. Then he sent to Luhansk. Total of Kyrgyzstan with him came another 17 people, which is then broken down by service areas. Manass got a special task brigade.
Arriving Luhansk, he familiarized himself with the reconnaissance group composed of different nationalities - Serbs, Chechens, Kazakhs, Ossetians.
Manasseh moral fracture occurred when he realized that Ukraine "fascist" is not, but the Donbas operate a regular Russian army.
"I think there are fascists, but I basically did not see them. We fought with regular Ukrainian army. They have some drawbacks - Battalions" Right-wing sector "," Donbass ", made up of volunteers, ultra-nationalist. Where both are not. But the fascists I did not see. We took captive enemies are destroyed, but because of the war, "explains Manass.
"Fracture occurred to me when I saw the Russian soldiers as they are entering, at war. I broke something inside," recalls Mr, emphasizing that it is absolutely certain that they were Russian soldiers, because with them fought.
Manass indicates that they have been able to battle parts of the South with the Chechen war experience.
"Mostly the contract serving in. They were there from time to time p?rsviež, occasionally pulls. Moreover, they go without equipment. They trained people leave and go technique. Front there are not too uniform, the battle takes place in different towns," reveals Kirghiz.
"Now there's more work in the Russian regular army. Miners almost did not go. Volunteers also left with very little. Now we are replaced by the regular army. They'll deterrence forces in all circumstances be protected within a heading," explains Manass. He decided to take leave as a cover for the Donbas no longer be converted.
"There is such thing as a legal holiday. I gave it once took a Debalcevo. Then we spent a" cargo 200 ". I did not terminate the Treaty - it would cause suspicion. I simply asked for permission to go home, even though the Russian border would not be placed on the , "says a former volunteer.
Stop warfare Manass decided, therefore, that did not confirm the motives for which he went to the Donbass.
"I was one of the motive, it was not confirmed. It turned out that all of this is propaganda and agitation," says the Kirghiz, stating that now go to war Ukrainian side.
"I would now go for Ukraine. These are the people who defend the unity, sovereignty," concludes Manass which gives very unhappy that there is a "russia propaganda on the hook."
http://rus.azattyk.org/media/video/kyrgyzstan-prorussian-mercenary/26905...
Fick off nuland you fucking whore
i know its you
1. The greek people have never seen that money.
2. The greek people have been impoverished since they entered "the Eurozone" convertibility
3. Goldman Sach helped Greece entering the Eurozone
4. Everybody knew Greece didn't had the numbers required by the "Eurozone rules" (neither did others as Italy, by the way)
5. Eurozone is not for the people's sake, but for banksters
6. The only thing that's gonna work for the people (the whole Europe's people) is going back to national currencies
7. Eurozone it's been a huge transfer of wealth (and freedom) from the people to banksters. This is not some thought, it's hard data.
8. Common currencies don't work (for the people) between countries and regions with deeply diverse economies.
9. Economics is a social science. Should be approached as such.
10. Similar experiment was conducted in Argentina under the "Convertibility" which led to 2001 debacle. This is not some thought, it's hard data.
OUT-OF-THE-EURO, GREECE! You'll do just fine.
Amen, brother
I second that. Hit those fucker's who have no fiduciary responsibilities at the knee caps. Bat or bullet, your choice.
Greece has defaulted on its external sovereign debt obligations at least five previous times in the modern era (1826, 1843, 1860, 1894 and 1932).
Link:http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0911/the-history-of-greek-sov...
The GREPOCALYPSE is upon us all!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FPELc1wEvk
I had been thinking the EU QE might offer TPTB cover for a Greek kick "off the island".
As usual the collateral damage will be underestimated.
Greece," Does that mean you won't loan/give us anymore money?"
ECB is at a blackjack table counting cards before the IMF mystery player sits down to bid a extraordinary bet.
/sarc
ECB MAKES IT CLEAR: "OUR JOB IS TO MAKE SURE GREECE BECOMES TURKEY"
After repeatedly missing its target of helping the European economy grow, the ECB decided to focus on attainable targets: "Destroying Greece´s economy will be the first ECB success in 10 years".
European officials are hopeful that Greece will become Turkey, before Turkey becomes Greece.
Source: www.financialpaparazzi.com
ECB cannot lose the Greece gravy train of revenue stream. It would require 3x semi-perphery countries to replace a factional return.
There is no Plan B.
There is always a plan B.
EU likes to distance itself from war, so discount that.
The only downside is the damage to the Reputation of the IMF and maybe the ECB. They can write off the lose. If they compete for a bonus, then they have to figure out how to look smart. The Blame Game is helpful here. The most Dominant always wins in the Blame Game.
So Plan B
Write off Debt, Print Money, Blame someone in a smart way, Spin the Narrative, Determine how and when to seize any and all Assets put up by Greece, Plan how to deflect requests from Greece for War Reparations, get your team together for support to defend against Greece Request for War Reparations.
Boom Done.
Allow Greece to Use Euro if they desire as it makes no difference. Request Speedy Decision from Greece on Grexit. Demand all Business and Individuals who own assets in Greece be treated under international laws of ownership.
Phoenix Capital did okay here.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-18/greece-just-tip-iceberg-100-tri...
I didn't have it straight in my head.
** So a Bailout for any PIIGS is really a corporate bailout for Banks unless a stupid government buys PIIGS Bonds. IMF/WB are just banks, Corporations.
** That is not to say PIIGS were not Targeted for Looting **
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Bail-Outs are Corruption -
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All bailouts benefit the corporations that were bad Capitalists.
Kapitalismus Totet oder Toten.
Capitalism where Corporations and Banks are Protected is probably an old Europe thing that just came to the USA in 2009. But it is not Capitalism.
It is Fascism, Inverted Totalitarianism, or Corporate Socialism.
Bailouts are for the Elites. Start a business you are a target of the Banks and Wall Street. You don't get a Bailout.
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Bail-Outs are Corruption -
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Grexit? delusional, the EU is a debtors slave prison with a giant Muslim Socialist millstone to push
LOL let me know when the Ukrexit is done
YeeeeeeeeHaaaaaaaa Pappy Bush, you can take your NWO to your deathbed with you.
Drachma in the hands of a socialist spending spree, lots and lots and lots of drachma, just like Zimbawe. I can hardly wait to buy some drachma bonds.
ECB Prepares For Grexit, Anticipates 95% Loss On Greek Debt
Well it couldn't happen to better people.
Now watch the Rhetoric. ECB & IMF will pretend not to be Businesses.
- Oh we are supposed to think you are a Charity? S/
- All the Benefits the FED, BIS, EU, ECB, OECD, IMF, WB get as Diplomats and the power & Salaries, Diplomatic Immunity, No Taxes, Special Treatment in Travel to and from meetings, Per Diem Travel Allowances, Free Meals too
- How much did Timothy Geithner Make in Per Diem from his Travel?
- Oh I feel so sorry for Bankers S/
Inviting Greece into the euro cooperation was a scam in the first place. Greece never met the requirements to join. It was like a couple of rich guys letting a poor kid be part of their group for a while, lending him money all the time. And then after a few years of friendship, the rich kids want all their money back with interest. When he can't pay it back, the rich boys tell him to eat less and less so he can afford his payments.
Of course Greece can print drachmas. It's called reclaiming national sovereignity by reclaiming the issuance of currency. Next establish a national public bank that has no relationship to the BIS and start making low interest loans to businesses and in two years the Greek economy will thrive just like the US economy will thrive after the same thing happens in the US when the Federal Rserve is replaced by a national public bank that has no allegiance to the BIS. Until that happens, the US economy will never improve and the banker game of impoverishment will continue.
Sure they can print drachmae. They just can't make anybody accept them---least of all men in uniform. If Syriza try it, a wink and a nod from the CIA and the army will overthrow and kill them. Simple as that.