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Goldman's FOMC Post-Mortem - "More Dovish Than Expected" But Hike Coming In September
Via Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius,
The March FOMC statement and projections suggested that September rather than June appears to be the most likely date for the first hike of the fed funds rate. Although the change to the "patient" forward guidance was close to expectations, the shift in the "dot plot" was most consistent with two rather than three 25 basis point hikes to the target range occurring in 2015. In addition, changes to the Committee's economic assessment were a bit more dovish.
MAIN POINTS:
1. As widely expected, the FOMC decided to drop its "patient" formulation in its forward guidance regarding the date of the first rate hike. It explicitly noted that a hike at the upcoming April meeting was unlikely, while stating that the Committee will hike "when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term."
2. Changes to the Committee's assessment of economic activity were generally dovish, with growth at a "solid pace" downgraded to growth having "moderated somewhat." In particular, "export growth weakened."
3. The median projection for the fed funds rate (or "dot") fell 50bp to 0.625% at end-2015, fell 62.5bp to 1.875% at end-2016, and fell 50bp to 3.125% at end-2017. Two participants again indicated that a hike would not be appropriate until 2016, while one indicated a target range of 25-50bp at end-2015 and seven indicated a target range of 50-75bp at end 2015 (a group that is highly likely to include the leadership of the Committee), most likely consistent with a first hike in September. The median longer run projection was unchanged at 3.75%, but many participants reduced their longer run dot by 25bp.
4. The FOMC also released a new Summary of Economic Projections. The mid-point of the central tendency of the unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 5.1% in 2015Q4, 0.1pp to 5.0% in 2016Q4, and 0.15pp to 4.95% in 2017, implying a 0.15pp undershooting of the longer-run or “structural” rate, which declined 0.25pp to 5.1%. Real GDP growth declined 0.3pp to 2.5% in 2015, 0.25pp to 2.5% in 2016, and 0.2pp to 2.2% in 2017. Longer run growth was unchanged at 2.15%. Headline PCE inflation fell 0.6pp to 0.7% in 2015, but was little changed after that. Core inflation fell 0.3pp to 1.35% in 2015 and fell 0.15pp to 1.7% in 2016, but was unchanged at 1.9% in 2017.
5. There were no dissents.
6. Our forecast remains for a September hike, but the risks now appear slightly skewed toward a later liftoff.
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It's like waiting for Godot. We'll raise. No really, next time maybe. Nope, next time, most likely. It's coming soon, but not yet. Fuck off and die!
Goldman thinks its in September so it should happen in April
"we are just as surprised as everyone else"
Go fuck yourself LLoyd
This whole world is bullshit. I head Yelled say "Job markets are improving" --> I wanted to hurl a rock at her face when she said that.
Please, right along with Liesman, SHUTTHEFUCKUPALREADYJON
September ?? ... of what year ?
In September they will say rates will rise in 1Q 2016, then it will Be later in 2016, then 4Q 2016....
You get the picture.
someone should compile a list of all the reneged promises to raise rates since the GFC
Fed policy is to steer the markets without actually ever acting. It's like herding cattle with promises that you won't kill them if they go a certain direction.
Markets = RIGGED and BROKEN.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BatgvSN2Z7M
No kidding.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU9JoFKlaZ0
Look!!! Superman!!!
Anytime a Phoenix Capital article appears at the top of ZH, BUY BUY BUY!!!!!
You sure it's him and not Econ-doesn't-Matters...?
You're only half right. You need to add:
Anytime a Phoenix Capital article does not appear at the top of ZH, BUY BUY BUY!!!!!
the rate hike is the last thing we'll all be thinking about in September...
salacious crumb has something to say to that:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMnSpd0XRmo
evil dead has something to add:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_xJUQxE9tY
So this time I was screwed by a 'dot plot'
I thought the rate hike was going to be in June! With the end of the Shemitah Year coming up in September 2015 Goldman will have to forget about any rate hike for the foreseeable future.
"Ms Yellen, what are your thoughts on the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's real time GDP model collapsing?"
Bullishit
September.. when shemitah hits the fan
next time, can GS give us the pre-mortom FOMC statement? you know....since they do write it out and just email it to the fat cow anyways......
back in October, rate hike in March, then more recently in June and now GS says Sept.
why? because the Fed doesn't control rates - the Fed influences rates through bond buying and rates won't go up because of Europe's NIRP.
Why would the US gubbamint want to pay higher rates on their debt??
And in conclusion, fuck off and die yellen and eat shit and die GS.
hahahahahahahahaha GS thinks that the fed will hike rates in september. You know September its the official month of shit hitting the fan
No rate hike in 2015.
The only real forecast is perpetual jawboning as the banksters of the world rob the public and public treasuries blind with the aid and abetment of central banks.
Surely you mean Public Debteries and not Treasuries!
No one could have seen it coming...
The Fed does not understand what comes first. They are now dropping future expectations for the economy yet expect that employment will continue rising and point to rising employment as their indicator that things are getting better.
Employment is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator. And it lags by four to five quaters. We will be in the recession before they even know what has hit them.
View their forecasts for yourself. And remember that they have been on the high and optimistic side since the beginning.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20150318.pdf
You forget that it is employment statistics published by the government that are rising and improving while in the real world employment is getting worse.
I have not forgotten that. I know how half-baked their data is. Yellen stated we may not even see a rise in wages. That tells us everything.
She makes it up as she goes along. Pure propaganda.
i hope come september, goldman sachs is non exsistent, these bastards need to be taken care of once and for all.
die goldman sachs, u fucking scumbags. lloyd and all his cronies must be taken care of once and for all
Unfortunately the FDIC will now be insuring OTC Derivatives of banks like Goldman so they will probably be saved again thanks to the lawmakerrs in D.C.
That legislation has to be for some kind of bankruptcy or liability coverage. $290T or any trills for that matter cannot be literally paid to cover losses. Even if it could be so, if that isnt the straw that breaks the citizens back then I am off to the Bahamas.
So where the fuck do you find the extra GDP to service debt if you raise rates?
Do we get OperationTwist x 10Fuck You ?
I'm sure all of this would make sense if I had a D.Phil.
The collaspe is on for Oct!
Who's Hike? German soccer player?
ZH should can this fuckan bullshit from the worthless cocksuckers at Goldman Sachs.
Since the dollar is strengthening, wouldn't it make more sense to go NIRP?
I made a post the other day explaining how statistically it was about 100% guarnteed we would go sharply higher of the announcement so any idiot should have know what today would bring but that is using the numbers.
That said; no way goldman knew this was coming, their public recommendation yesterday to sell the market combined with their prop traders in the S&P pit buying futs with both hands all day shows that they were confused.
No. It shows that they wanted to buy prop and take more money from the muppets.
Have you met Goldmann Sachs? LoL.
Never hike, never.
They cannot hike.
IT'S A MADHOUSE!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFCM6TZgTMI
The commie Apes win.
From my cold dead hands!
DC is AC (Ape City).
Bullshit, they've been saying there's a hike coming for 7 years. Lying fuckers need to be tried and hung for crimes against the citizenry.
March.... NO - June.... NO - September. Anyone else feel like this is a wallet on a string that's always being pulled out of reach. The FED will NEVER hike rates. they can't. The only way rates go up is when the market says enough! and asks to be paid in keeping with the level of risk.
Blowbama would have to borrow even more $$$ if there is a hike.
They can never raise rates. We have passed Peak Jew.