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Here Is The Reason Why Stocks Are Soaring, Or Farewell "Recovery"... Again
Why are stock soaring in response to the Fed statement and latest set of projections? Because, as Bloomberg promptly calculated, the FOMC revised down all forecasts for 2015 since the previous SEP was released on Dec. 17.
The median dot for year end 2015 falls to 0.625% from 1.125% in Dec: a whopping 0.50% cut.
And there goes not only the "recovery" but any imminent rate hike.
The details:
- The central tendency for GDP this year is 2.3%-2.7% vs 2.6%-3%. But the real hammer was 2016 and 2017: these were just slashed from 2.5%-3.0% and 2.3%-2.5% as of December, to 2.3-2.7% and 2.0-2.4%.
- Unemployment rate 5.0-5.2% vs 5.2%-5.3%
- The Fed now sees PCE inflation at 0.6%-0.8%. This was supposed to be 1%-1.6% just three months ago.
- Core PCE 1.3%-1.4% vs 1.5%-1.8%
- And the one that matters most, the "dot plot", saw the median dot for 2016 fall to 1.875% vs 2.5%, and decline to 3.125% from 3.625% for 2017.
And here is a comparison of the dots since September 2014 courtesy of @Not_Jim_Cramer. The Fed: wrong as ever.
In other words, what the Fed just said is the following: "it wasn't the snow, it was the economy."
End Result: Goodbye recovery, hello stock surge.
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UN Preparing For Global Sovereign Debt Restructuring https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/un-preparing-for-global-so...
Goldman strikes again....sold some PUTS to unsuspecting Muppets
Translation: "No Rate Increase."
Here comes QE4...
[well, duh...]
I can't wait to see the talking heads eating crow to Peter Schiff when that day happens...and it will happen. Probably just be called something else other than QE or Operation Twist. Maybe Screw Your Neighbor.
Schiff is persona non grata in the MSM- too much truthiness. They only have him on when it's time to persecute him (after a large gain in the market, typically). If/When he's right, they won't let him on the air. That's how that shit goes.
The Goldman and Tickmill guys who shorted SP500 puts the past days to the folks have made a ton of money today. I wish I would be one of them.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Woody_Allen_-_Kup.JPG
This is all leading to QE 4, Schiff is right, coming soon, this economy is in the tank. Janet has confirmed. CB's are pushing everything higher today.
Gold Bitchez...I pick up pennies
The more they pump this fucker up the bigger the the collaps when it pops. They'll keep easing as long as Obummer is Emperor.
What are they gonna buy with QE4??? There's zero mortgage origination's and it's political suicide for the GOP to undo lending standard restrictions. And there's always that little problem of QE NOT WORKING! The only time the stimulus was effective was during the tax rebates and Housing credits of 2009/10. But the Oligarchy got pissed that average folks were getting more affordable homes and such, so we got the QE-For-The-Top-20%-Only version that has given us this insane asset/commodity inflation with wage DEFLATION. I don't see anyway they can push through QE4 and even if they do it will fail quickly and more spectacularly than the last as the damage it will do to the hanging-on-by-a-thread consumer will be extraordinary.
Sorry NZ but you failed the quiz. The textbook clearly states that in order to fix anything we have to print more currency. See the note on page 284: In order to simply maintain the status quo it is necessary to print more currency although not always as much as in bad times.
To summarize, see the table of conditions and reactions below.
Economy Good - Print moar
Economy Meh - Print moarer
Economy Bad - Print moarerer
It is a very simple concept to understand. So simple a Krugman can do it.
@ aPlayer "I wish I would be one of them."
You mean a nasty greedy back stabbing fuckface? Trust me, you don't want to be one of them. Sounds like fun, but it will eat you from the inside out after a while - trust me on that one.
You can come close to being a nasty greedy back stabbing fuckface without the cash by joining your local government though... :)
This is exactly what I was thinking. QE4 here we come. For christs sake the EUR/USD is to da moon now on this FOMC meeting. So much for Marty Armstrongs call for 2015.75. Shit is getting beyond surreal.
Come join us at www.gunsgrubandgold.com
Food Calculators, Stock Charts, Graphs, Chat, Links... etc. For All Your Survival Needs!
"no rate hikes... ever" QE4 was just a few months away in Oct 2014 anyway. there is only 1 trajectory and pretty much everyone on ZH knows it. the world is so predictable nowadays.
Its much easier to assume that everything is fine. When the shit finally does hit the fan we can stand about lamenting the fact that none of us saw it coming. See how easy that is? Safety in numbers. Just make sure all of your associates are delusional and no one will be pointing fingers at you.
"NO RECOVERY"?? BS!!! Wait a week!! That's how it works for the last 7 years. The Fed comes time to raise - Oh wait..."We need to see the unempolyment rate at (fill in the blank)". A week later, every talking head is crowing about the great recovery that's pushing stocks up. Next Fomc meeting, Data is weak to dismal. Fed says: "We are data dependent". Stocks rally - Talking heads crow RECOVERY!!! Next Fomc meeting, "Fed to drop patience" - Fed says: PATIENCE!!! Talking heads will be released on the sheep in 3...2...1!!!
Who the fuck can't see this chirade???
Gramma Cat Lady: um.. the economy is doing great.. um.. we May or May not Raise rates in June.. maybe. um.... economy is doing great.. um...
Yellen is a very patient person since she never lost patience even when losing 'Patience'. Not in Bernankes lifetime.
Unsuspecting muppet is kind of redundent.....
Does a Muppet know He's a muppet?
One hand clapping?
Well damn, I thought the Financial World was supposed to collapse. Stock market carnage. Who knew? </sarc>
Me and all the other BTFD'ers. Sorry Shorts. Maybe one day you will get a clue.
how's it feel to 'earn' your milk and honey taking Chairman Yellen's money shot on your face?
lick it up, and hope she's not 'premature' when you're happily waiting for your next fix.
Thanks for that.
No way the FED lets the market fall on this news, either way. Has to be viewed as positive, at least at the time. Few days ago market soared on expectations of no rate hike. Wait this out.
Won't matter when Q1 earnings start rolling out.
The unmassaged figures must be awfull.
The first reaction is nearly always the wrong one.Let it brew awhiles.
1st quarter will be the warm up act, 2nd quarter is when the passion play will really start.....
That's why we will never see the unmassaged figures.
We simply need to adjust our seasonal adjustments a little more. They do it for the people, to maintain our confidence and to forestall the possibility of their heads being firmly planted on pikes.
Damn ... i barely had time to get my Dow 18k hat back on !!
Is that like one of those cheese head things?
Oh worse..
Moar like a Steelers fan..
And her come the down arrows!
Fucking towel heads..
I gave you the down arrow just cause you expected it- didn't want to see you disappointed!!LOL
Me too. #4.
And who leaked it as the ramp started before hte release in this freak show
Yellen leaked it to Congress and the PPT.
I think the market is just plain nuts....
Seriously!
And it just took five years to notice!
Clinically insane is the proper term....
criminally insane is the better term...
'Market'.
LOL
But the algos love it.
A rigged market cannot[be allowed to] fall for too long.
Not so hard to understand
Short DAX
Go Long DOW
What the heck is a dot plot?
A new version of a Light Bright
Dot plot makes Light Brigade look absolutely brilliant!!!!
so much for them being painted into a corner. i guess there is just a nice big door (it would have to be big for that fat bitch yellen to get thru) right in the corner of the room for them to escape out of?
Force is the only backing the dollar has.
Look at it go.
AUDIT THE FED !!
How about audit government......always fun to watch them point fingers and take swings at each other in the media.
"AUDIT THE FED !!"
No- throw it out, and go back to what the constitution prescribed.
Obama will sign an executive order making such actions unconstitutional.
Is that all it takes?
/Snark
Rates 0% 4eva......and the crowd goes wild!
But wait....doesn't that mean 'Fed loses all credibility' as the script said for months? Aw, just horse shit after all!
Correct Dog!
There has never been a better time to sell stocks said no broker ever.
The FED has blown its biggest bubble ever, and they know it !!!
....And the joke continues.
bullshit!
it is GS and JPM and every algo out there, running every overhead stop to the upside. the FOMC is in complete control, and the market will NOT fall during their deliberations.....
this has happened over and over again....please!!!
they will hike rates. they have to hike rates.
ZH do a story on the imploding insurance industry worldwide - this is why they have to raise rates.
+1
The insurance industry cannot apply NIRP to their models. Was reading the doomsday scenarios across the German financial press.
Rates have to go up and they will. Alternatively the largest bailout ever, 3x as big as 2008 will need to be written to save the Insurers and the policy holders. That would be the Weimar moment even the Fed couldn't keep under control.
Guys, how should I "play" this market?
Should I buy EVERYTHING?
Get out your revolver and load six rounds. Now your ready to play....
Since we now live in a Universe beyond the laws of Physics - this all makes perfect sense. The economy is rotting from within so buy moar stawks.
tick tock. tick tock.
Is there anything that can actually make the market go down anymore ?
yellen naked?
Maybe something else down, but not the market.
<yellen naked>- I actually gagged up a bit in the back of my throat, just thinking about that. Thanks, buddy.
I blew chunks through my nose while drinking my morning coffee.
Yes ... Reality!
if the 20+% the dollar has strengthened is added to the market valuation these are the best times since the internet bubble! its great to an american!
I guess oil is going to $10
So, is this an admission that QE and POMO aren't helping the economy?
Repeat after me: This has nothing to do with the real economy. The game is run by people who cannot create wealth. Claims on wealth are not wealth.
The financials, still negative on the day, aren't banking on the success of any fed dot plot scenario, and equities aren't going anywhere w/o the banks:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=bkx&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=5
The people who write for this blog are idiots, and perennially wrong, about pretty much everything.
I am no lover of our government or the FED, but a bull market is a bull market until it's not.
CTRL-P is not a market
Had you said a bullshit market I would have up-voted you.
Right, because your market allows for true price discovery? LMFAO!!!!
What flavor of koolaid are you drinking? It sounds exotic; like a combo of LSD and rat poison.
Easy Biff, baby steps
2100 in 3.. 2... 1... :D hilarious! But to be honest... everybody could have seen this coming...
the flash crash in the VIX was NO accident. it was a mis "TIMED" algo that "GAVE AWAY" early what TPTB had in store for the spx after the FOMC release!!!
Amen
What happens when the Fed goes neg interest rate ?
Then you sue the .fed. This would then make it to the SCOTUS and they will rule it is just a tax....
It's just running up tp a 5 position, last rally.
This should increase buybacks....which is the stockmarket now...
I should have given up and BTFD
Just BTFD.
Good thing they have no credibility, otherwise it would..... Never mind.
Here comes QE 4, then QE 5, QE 6....QE 20.
Never ending monetizing debt.
Bull queers run the markets now.
Did I say markets?
My error.
Bull queers run the porn gallery now.
easy money
Trading stocks off this nonsense is like trading off of clicks and views in 2000. It doesn't matter when no one makes any money. But I guess when you live in Zombie land, you cover yourself in Zombie guts and stagger around mumbling incoherantly like everyone else if you want to live.
check the DAX - up almost 50% in five months
central bank cocksuckers doing it to all the markets
Make no mistake....this bloated fucking pig is wedging all the way to 2200 before the rubber hits the road. Until then, relax and BTFD.
http://i.imgur.com/L5oHr7I.png
a rowboat with one oar.....
Another day, another fucking circus. I'm really getting tired of watching these monkeys go around in circles, someone trip one of them.
Today's Theme Song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iL0Qt7IF8Q4
For some
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJOjTNuuEVw
Palliative care.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3MrcbRzl-o
up, up and away:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5akEgsZSfhg
I assume these "growth" numbers are NOT inflation adjusted.
So really, for all we know, ALL of the "growth" is simply Fed printing. Bogus.
And yet, this moves the market up?
OMG
In the words of Robert Louis Stevenson......."Sooner or later in life, we all sit down to a banquet of consequences."
The longer we put off that banquet, the more bitter will be the taste. In the end, the piper must be paid and the devil will have his due. Forestalling the inevitable will accomplish nothing and will only serve to make it worse when it comes.Just burn your candle at both ends and get your show on the road.
Honestly, I think they are goosing the DOW until enough Boomers die off to not cause problems with a downturn in their retirement funds. Big difference in the perception of wealth and real wealth, I know. But most people think real wealth is numbers on a statement.
In the UK the FTSE 100 just hit an all-time high (6986.3 at 18:15 GMT) in after-hours trading after today's budget. Official close was just 16 points beow the all-time high. It seems a correction is on the cards over here too.
SHERLOCK HOLMES AND THE CASE OF
THE MISTAKEN METAPHOR
SH: So you see, Watson, the participants in the strong US stock market and the rising dollar aren't behaving at all like Ali Baba and the 40 Thieves. They are more like a fellowship of gang rapists in Punjab.
DW: I see, Holmes. Everybody wants to jab their puny little pee pee in. Dip their wick, so to speak.
SH: And leave it in as long as possible. The US economy is not a victim here. Like a prostitute with a mattress strapped to her back, her desires can't be filled. The only victims in this case are those who haven't banged her at all.
Can anyone say "diminishing return"?
Either spend it now or buy a bigger wheel barrow!
So glad I am not trying to play this market!
Skullduggery and chichanerous, straight up, theft of what is left of my savings.
QE4.....QE5.......?????
Thank G-d I am not rich or I would really be pissed!
WE CAN'T EVEN AFFORD A MILITARY ANYMORE! It is so bad I saw American Veterans volunteering to fight in IRAQ against Al-CIA-da for free.
Guess I'll get that Obama Phone while I still can!
And the fraud continues...
It's options expiration week. That's why it went up. The Fed, the US Dollar, and "fundamentals" had nothing to do with it.
The 110 puts had to be taken out. And after tomorrow they will be.
Thank you for that, insightful, observation!
Third Thursday it is!
But the e-mini future is still trading at 2103?
Looks like the ppt is working through the weekend?
Thanks M'aam you made my day. Cronies in my Country (which is on the other side of the Globe) have never had it so good.
Hope somebody has the balls to hang Yellen - naked
minority opinion
Because this is what a financial 'tail wagging the dog' looks like.
We've seen several iterations of it since the second half of 2009.
It is the monster created by the 'Second Wish of the Monkey's Paw'.