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Just One Chart

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Because it's called a credit "cycle" for a reason...

 

 

Of course, it's different this time.. except as Andy Redleaf noted...

In 2007, "The driver... will be a sudden, profound and pervasive loss of faith in the alchemy of structured finance as currently practiced."

In 2015, will it be a "sudden, profound and pervasive loss of faith in the alchemy of monetary policy as currently practiced."

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:21 | 5902663 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

Bring down this house of card BITCHEZ

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:24 | 5902670 semperfi
semperfi's picture

end this shit-show !!!

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:29 | 5902684 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Won't happen, they aren't out of either smoke or mirrors.....

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:36 | 5902707 Looney
Looney's picture

We cycled some folks… It’s only fair…  I have a phone... and a pen...  ;-)

Looney

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:37 | 5902713 knukles
knukles's picture

Sweden just cut it's base rate again.  Now -0.25%  Whoopee!
Gonna come here to We're Exceptional Land, too!

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:39 | 5902720 Looney
Looney's picture

Yes, exshleptional indeed!  ;-)

Looney

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:41 | 5902730 Manthong
Manthong's picture

It’s not alchemy.

Alchemists really thought they could figure out how to turn lead into gold.

The F-heads running this sh*t show know they are engaging in fraud and theft.

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 14:44 | 5903108 pods
pods's picture

And turning lead (and other elements) into gold is not only possible, it has been achieved.

Modern day alchemists are more focused on turning human beings into debt slaves.

And with that they have been very successful.

pods

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 18:29 | 5904032 H. Perowne
H. Perowne's picture

To return the favor, could turn the alchemists to corpses with lead implants, no?

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 18:05 | 5903943 negative rates
negative rates's picture

We're not so sure they do, they got paid to turn carbon into diamonds for industrial use. When they asked where are you going to get high quality carbon to keep making diamonds, we told them that after the workers of the Fed retired and died, we take their teeth out and use those to make future high quality diamonds, they seem confused about it all.

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:37 | 5902709 fauxhammer
fauxhammer's picture

Won't happen, they aren't out of either smoke or mirrors.....

 

Weed and blow can only fix so much

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:44 | 5902742 darteaus
darteaus's picture

he who is glad at calamity will not go unpunished.

Pr 17:5b

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 14:01 | 5902821 10mm
10mm's picture

Is it calamity when rampant fraud is cheered for the good or the bad? 

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 21:20 | 5904549 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

The real calamity is mankind trying to control and outright disobey nature.  Markets are natural.  It will snap back and that will be the punishment.

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:25 | 5902673 Four chan
Four chan's picture

junk is what worthless script is defined as. 

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:25 | 5902676 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Chart "training" is an art. Nice work Tyler!

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:26 | 5902679 kowalli
kowalli's picture

do you think that they will kill one-two big usa banks to save others or what?

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:30 | 5902691 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, probably.  They hate competing with themselves, pantomime though that "competition" may be.  

Last man standing is where we're headed.  On a giant pile of money, everyone else on the planet scratching around naked in the dirt.  

Then we know who won.

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 20:38 | 5904400 logicalman
logicalman's picture

He still won't be happy.

When he has everything, where's he going to get more from?

 

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:31 | 5902697 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

Absolutely

 

always thought they would have to make a sacrifice or two to appease j6p ... in order to bail others

 

of course, Goldman will be first in line to pick off choice morsels from carcass(es) at rock bottom price ... with taxpayer get stuck with the "bad" bank losses.

 

Ain't Amerika grand?

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:43 | 5902738 madcows
madcows's picture

They already killed Lehmans and bear stearns

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:26 | 5902681 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Why don't you people just trust our PHD's for god sakes.  THEY HAVE PHD"S DAMN IT!

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:29 | 5902685 kowalli
kowalli's picture

they need phd to make money, not to save people, sad thing...

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:39 | 5902724 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Piled Higher and Deeper

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:27 | 5902683 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Can't wait to buy me some more JNK, but hopefully around 6 this time instead of 26, like it was in '09.

 

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:30 | 5902687 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

faith has little to do with a rigged market

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:36 | 5902710 CHX
CHX's picture

True, for now. But once a critical mass loses faith, then the rigging will no longer work... I don't know when it will happen, but know it WILL happen, and it is in much less than 10 years time. 

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:48 | 5902763 darteaus
darteaus's picture

I wonder how high the market would be if the holders of Yen, Euro, Aussie$, etc. weren't running from their currencies...

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:32 | 5902699 CHX
CHX's picture

Nothing, I say NOTHING, I YELL NOTHING TO SEE HERE.... MOVE ALONG...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NNOrp_83RU

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:35 | 5902704 Peterus
Peterus's picture

I guess QE1, 2, 3, inf where just not big enough. If only the FED acted bolder, if only this awesome, perfect program of monetary easing had created a bit more money, than it would all go well. We would be on a permanent plateou of steady growth forever.

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 21:24 | 5904564 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Indeed they did miss a stitch in time so now we'll have nine more.

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:38 | 5902716 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Hey, my credit card still works! I just ordered more ammo with it. 

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:39 | 5902719 darteaus
darteaus's picture

% Delta is quite a bit different between the two HY charts:

In the top chart (Lehman), HY% was approaching 2 (~2.25) and increased to >8% before the initial bounce, roughly a 400% delta.

In the bottom chart (current), HY% were approaching 3 (~3.33) and increased to ~5.5% before the initial bounce, a 65% delta.

In my world, 65% is quite a bit different from 400%.

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:49 | 5902768 mechanized
mechanized's picture

Yeah it'd be nice to see this as ONE chart, not two where the scales are different.

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 14:28 | 5903010 darteaus
darteaus's picture

I'm saying that even though the chart pattern is the same, a 400% change in interest rates is 800% different from a 65% change, and 800% is a big difference.

I.e., don't just look at the pattern, compare the magnitude also.

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 14:27 | 5902997 isudas
isudas's picture

Good observation but we are not at the bottom of the chart, if you look at where the S&P 500 trns down, aboround October 2007 you can see that the two are similar.  You can see that there was a small bounce in HY followed by a long decline about this time frame.  Many similarities.

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:40 | 5902722 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

"Is that like a unicycle?  I borrowed money for college and bought 2 of those.  They are collecting dust along with my diploma." - Amerisheep

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:40 | 5902726 Jtrillian
Jtrillian's picture

The question, which we will not know the answer to until it has already happened, is will the Grexit create another systemic risk collapse via derivatives? 

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 14:08 | 5902866 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

No. Default as defined by derivative contracts is no longer a legal or even descriptive term. It will soon be classified as the N word where only certain people will be allowed to utter it in hushed tones. No debts held by banks or government will ever default ever again. They will simply be rolled over with new debt and reassigned a new negative interest rate. It's hotel California where you can check out but never leave. The debt will never have redeemable value beyond what you can trade it for (a new devalued currency) but you can hold it in your portfolio forever and claim it as an asset.

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 13:51 | 5902776 B2u
B2u's picture

Banks currently are getting FREE money.  No need to lend it, just park it at the FED....BUT when interest rates rise the banks will have to put the money to work by making more loans....

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 15:31 | 5903308 daveO
daveO's picture

They get interest on those reserves. If the FED raises funds rates w/o raising reserve rates, maybe so(inflationary). If the FED raises rates on the reserves, too, maybe not(deflationary). 

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 14:23 | 5902969 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I'm going to turn over a Redleaf if I have quit BTFD

Wed, 03/18/2015 - 18:08 | 5903951 chubakka
Wed, 03/18/2015 - 19:44 | 5904255 Magooo
Magooo's picture

Now is different.  The central banks will do absolutely anything to delay a crash because a crash = end of world

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