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Government Hints Fannie/Freddie Would Need Another Bailout If Conditions Deteriorate
Bill Ackman — who may or may not have manipulated some stocks — is confident that the “truth will prevail” as it relates to Fannie and Freddie, and the truth will supposedly show that the government is engaged in an unconstitutional confiscation of money that rightfully belong to shareholders. This stems from the Treasury’s 2012 move to sweep 100% of the companies’ profits. That arrangement replaced the old, some say inefficient, arrangement whereby Fannie and Freddie owed the Treasury a dividend on the government’s preferred shares but didn’t make enough money to cover it so, not wanting to lose out, the Treasury would then take the logical step of loaning the GSEs the money they needed to make the payment.
As the Treasury correctly noted when it changed the rules, this practice was rather circular and probably made very little sense (and that’s coming from the people who issue US government debt who most certainly know something about ridiculous circular funding schemes that make no sense):
“The agreements will replace the 10 percent dividend payments made to Treasury on its preferred stock investments in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with a quarterly sweep of every dollar of profit that each firm earns going forward. This will help achieve several important objectives, including ending the circular practice of the Treasury advancing funds to the GSEs simply to pay dividends back to Treasury.”
Of course that was then, and this is now, and thanks to $80 billion in “income” from non-recurring sources in 2013 and another $10 billion in maybe-not-real profits last year, these bastions of profitability are now throwing off cash and several billionaires plus a long line of BTFDers want their cut.
The problem with this, to let the FHFA tell it, is that Fannie and Freddie may well go broke again, at which point taxpayers would once again be on the hook for subsidizing their own bad mortgage debt, and so ultimately, the “truth” Bill Ackman is looking for here might be that these two firms are destined, by design, by decades of reckless behavior, and by Treasury decree, to be insolvent most of the time and that is one rather inconvenient truth. Here’s more from the FHFA:
To meaningfully discuss the sustainability of future earnings by the Enterprises, OIG separated nonrecurring events out of the income from the single-family, multifamily, and portfolio investment business segments. Analyzing the earnings reported by the Enterprises in 2012, OIG found that non-recurring earnings contributed $1 billion— 3.6%—of the $28 billion in net income. OIG found that, for 2013, non-recurring events accounted for $79 billion—60%—of the $132.6 billion in net income. Results for 2014 reflect that non-recurring sources comprise 45% of net income. Figure 2 illustrates that non-recurring sources contributed significantly to the Enterprises’ financial performance in 2013 and 2014.
Historically, net interest income from the Enterprises’ retained portfolios has been their primary source of revenue (see Figure 4).15 Net interest income is the difference, or spread, between the interest income earned on the assets in the retained portfolio and the interest expense associated with the debt that funds those assets. The Enterprises’ retained portfolios grew over 700% between 1992 and 2008, and net interest income became the largest source of earnings. The Enterprises’ combined retained portfolios were $192 billion as of the end of 1992, and grew to $1.6 trillion as of 2008.
While in conservatorship, the Enterprises are required to reduce the size of their retained portfolios in accordance with a designated schedule, and these mandatory reductions will reduce earnings from these portfolios in the future. The PSPAs require the Enterprises to reduce the size of their retained portfolios by 15% per year until they reach $250 billion by 2018.16 Since the conservatorships began in 2008, the size of the Enterprises’ retained portfolios has declined dramatically. Fannie Mae’s total mortgage related investment portfolio was $413.3 billion as of December 31, 2014; Freddie Mac’s comparable portfolio was $408.4 billion. The Enterprises have cautioned that any income growth from guarantee fees may not completely offset the loss in income from the retained portfolios.
And then, because no story about insolvent institutions is complete without a discussion of giant losses on a mountain of derivatives, there’s this…
The Enterprises, like many financial institutions, use derivatives to hedge against various risks, such as fluctuating interest rates. They use a variety of derivative instruments, including interest rate swaps, as an integral part of their interest rate risk management strategies. Derivative instruments are recorded at fair value and marked-to-market in the Enterprises’ financial statements to reflect changes in the value of these instruments due to changes in, for example, short-term and long-term swap rates.17 The Enterprises report changes in the value of their derivatives portfolios as fair value gains or losses, and the impact of those changes affects financial performance. For example, Fannie Mae reported fair value gains on derivatives of $3.3 billion in 2013, and fair value losses of $5.8 billion in 2014, a swing of more than $9 billion.
Under the PSPAs, losses from derivatives could require a draw if they cause an Enterprise’s liabilities to exceed the assets on its balance sheet and the Enterprise’s losses exceed the applicable capital reserve amount. Stated differently, if derivatives losses, expenses, and other adjustments exceed revenues and applicable capital reserve amount, a draw from Treasury would be required to cover the negative net worth amount.
… which when combined with the fact that the Fed MBS put is almost a memory...
It is uncertain when the FOMC will cease investing in MBS. The Mortgage Bankers Association suggests that the Federal Reserve, which has been the single largest purchaser of MBS over the past few years, will likely exit the MBS market in mid-2015.28 The ramifications of the FOMC’s decision to end the asset purchase program will not be clear until the market adjusts to the changed environment.
There is no obvious single player prepared to take over the Federal Reserve’s position as the dominant purchaser. Investors in MBS have different incentives for holding these instruments, and their investment strategies are influenced by a variety of factors, including regulatory capital and liquidity standards (e.g., Basel III and liquidity requirements); risk appetite and return objectives; and access to funding at favorable rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates modest gains in demand for MBS issuance in 2015 and expects total mortgage production to remain low. This lack of production combined with factors beyond FHFA and the Enterprises’ control create uncertainty about the future source of capital to fund the housing mortgage market and who the holders will be of MBS.
... you end up with a rather large problem…
…and so in the end shareholders may well find themselves in a familiar position…
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When is the financial regime change happening, again?
Sorry, I forgot.
And the records as to past bailout actions are sealed by Obama
https://cei.org/blog/least-transparent-administration-closes-records-fan...
resealed
Quick!!! Hire a new jew to run the joint, so that when TSHTF he can collect his golden scheckel parachute [which ~ will, OF COURSE be 100% donated to worthy causes]...
Recession may be here soon so this may happen any time...
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2015/03/recession-coming-to-usa-more-qe-on...
when i hear the feds saying that fannie/freddie will need a bailout what they are really saying is that the DEBT must grow because what trav7777 taught us is that only ''growth in credit (debt) can prolong the system''..........
and it is *required*, not optional
AAAHHHH!
'Mortimer, you're brother's not well! I think we should call an ambulance!
"FUCK HIM!"
https://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A86.JyGEmQtVuSoAE1olnIlQ;...
'Clarence Beeks' and 'Janet Yellen' have MUCH in common! Add 'trav7777' to the list of sellout fucks...
Need Another Bailout If Conditions Deteriorate
We have a brand new bank of printers on standby.....but.....let's hope it doesn't come to that.
Here we go again.
Seriously, taxpayers and savers might as well bend over, spread their ass cheeks apart, and just keep their well lubed bunghole at the ready permanently at this point.
Running out of lube here. This is gonna hurt.
What? Barney got his ass resealed ?
Democrats have been tryin to cover up the fannie/freddie scandal which led to the 2007 crisis. Bring back that lispy barney guy so we can ask him some questions.
Respectfully. FHFA Won’t Rule Out Ending Fannie, Freddie Oversight Without Congress - WSJ
Fannie/Freddie was designed to need a bailout.
Financial regime change when the Dollar fills wheelbarrows to buy a loaf of bread.
pucker up
Government Hints Fannie/Freddie Would Need Another Bailout When Conditions Deteriorate
fixed
switching to Firefox
AdBlock Plus. You'll thank me.
Yeah but ~ You'll miss this... THERE'S A SALE AT PENNEY'S!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJSgZYUnQn0
Whats a Pennys? you're obviously lacking some recent NSA tapes?
http://ir.jcpenney.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=70528&p=irol-irHome
Spend some time away from intel & ordinance, and you might just prosper. ;-)
I'm a stupid currency trader.
Install Ghostery and NoScript while you're at it...
I'm linux. No need for such things. I just BeachBit root. Thanks for thinking of me though. :-)
http://zorin-os.com/free.html It's ubuntu 14.0 4LTS based, with windows explorer or the other platform layouts.
Done, and thanks
The presses have only been idled because they're in serious need of maintenance after the last 6 years. They'll have them up and humming again in short order.
This shit doesn't even make sense anymore.
Fuck this I quit.
Calm down. When everyone around you is losing their head, don't lose yours.
EVERY governmental institution (and a bunch of private ones, including many banks) is, right now, as I type this, BANKRUPT. And have been for quite some time. They just haven't reached the point of INSOLVENCY (where they can't write the next check to pay for whatever).
The bastards control the money supply, this shit can go on for a LONG LONG TIME. But it does not change the fact they are bankrupt.
One way or another, they will use the power of the printing press to stave off actual INSOLVENCY for as long as possible. How long could that be? Look at Japan. Been doing it for DECADES.
Japan is the barometer. They will be the first major to fall. After that the others (including the US) will fall more quickly because we're all tied together at the banking level like a bunch of out-of-shape 300 lb. mountain climbers. When the first one slips off the side, he's going to drag the others down with him eventually.
As usual, our perspectives are quite similar. However, the "look at Japan" meme has always struck me as being a non-starter.
It was a totally different world for much of the period during which Japan "muddled through", and there is no chance that the impending crisis can be delayed for more than a (very) few years.
What makes you think you can quit?
I suggest you read your deed of indenture more carefully.
Another huge wealth transfer to the super loaded?
Remind me again
No.
You hand the first out of your own pocket.
The second they conjure out of thin air to spend as they see fit, for which you get Zero Benefit, but remain on the hook for fuckups.
plus ca change...
So if the recovery gets any better we'll be able to do another bailout, which, in turn, will strengthen the recovery further. Makes sense.
Three words; Government Sponsored Enterprise
I can't wait until Berkshire Hathaway is officially named as a GSE and nationalized, maybe after Warren takes his dirt nap and WW3 breaks out, gonna need lots of trains to move troops and new FEMA invitees.
I will toast the good Lord when Warren shuffles off this mortal coil, but he may outlive me. Anyone notice that the true evil fucks live forever, like Buffet, Soros, Greenspan. At least the db king of SA finally is worm food.
Formaldehyde drip
Wow, who could have seen this coming??
"Fannie," "Freddie," "GSE." Dang, I haven't heard those terms in years. Holy crap, I'm having acid flashbacks...
It seems like the fraudclosure deal was like 500 scandals ago, but holy mackeral it was a doozy.
Here we have the fraudulent FED QE'ing bennie bucks out of nowhere so they can hand it over to the fraudulent Treasury. The fraudulent Treasury then hands it over to the fraudulent GSE's so they can make payments right back to themselve. Now that's an awesome financial innovation!
All this after the fraudulent courts were turned into a collection agency for the banks to do millions of foreclosures. At one time I looked into the history of FNMA and saved it as a doc.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FRANKLIN RAINES [D] – FNMA CEO (1999 – 2004) Raines accepted “early retirement” from his CEO position while the SEC pretended to investigate accounting irregularities. Fannie’s own OHFHEO also accused him of abetting widespread accounting errors, including the shifting of losses, so he and his fellow execs could “earn” large bonuses. The WSJ reported back in 2008 that Raines was one of several cronies that received below market rates for mortgages from Countrywide. Raines alone receive loans for over $3 million while CEO of FNMA. Raines’ compensation for his “work” at FNMA - $90 million.
RAINES GRADE – F
DANIEL MUDD [R] – FNMA CEO (2005 – 2008) Before becoming CEO of FNMA, Mudd worked at the Office of the Secretary of Defense, was an advisor to Asia-Pacific Economic Corp., “served” on the board of the Council of Foreign Relations, “consulted” at the World Bank, and held many positions at GE Capital including president and CEO. Mudd was dismissed as CEO of FNMA when FHFA became conservator in 2008. In 2011 Mudd and other GSE execs were charged by SEC with securities fraud. After his career at FNMA Mudd became CEO of a NYC hedge fund named “Fortress”. Fortress invested in purchasing tax liens on delinquent property taxes from local governments under many benign corporate names such as “Pleasant Valley Capital” and “Travis Farm Investments”. Cozy. Mudd’s compensation for his “work” at FNMA - $80 million.
MUDD GRADE – F
NEEL KASHKARI [R] – FNMA CEO (Tenure is murky) Kashkari was a former investment banker for Goldman Sachs, was tapped by Hank “The Shank” Paulson to lend his skills over at TARP HQ, and now rather ironically, continues God’s work as a Managing Director at PIMCO. Kashkari’s compensation for his “work” at FNMA is also murky; I’ll just assume it was too much.
KASHKARI GRADE - F
HERB ALLISON [D] – FNMA CEO (2008 – 2009) The esteemed Mr. Allison was quickly whisked off to oversee the wildly successful TARP program. I didn’t find much on his compensation during his brief stint as FNMA CEO. Allison served in various positions at Merrill Lynch and became a member of the board in 1997. He was a director of the NYSE from 2003 – 2005.
ALLISON GRADE – F
MICHAEL WILLIAMS [?] – FNMA CEO (2009 – Jan 1, 2012) Mr. Williams is a 20 year veteran at FNMA. While “serving” as FNMA CEO, Williams managed to scrape by on less than $6 million in 2011 alone. This could and should be considered a hardship, given the complexities involved in purloining ~ $60 billion of Fed bailout money.
WILLIAMS GRADE – F
FANNIE’S MAJOR DANCE PARTNER, FREDDIE MAC, HAS ALSO PERFORMED VERY POORLY.
Charles (my friends call me “Ed”) Haldeman has announced his retirement plans but intends to be a good sport and stay on with insolvent FHLMC until another crony can be found to fill his wing-tips.
That might take a while. “Serving” as CEO of the ultimate backstops for the lion’s share of the MBS Ponzi is very stressful.
We’ll have to accept former Freddie exec David Kellermann’s testimony posthumously. Mr. Kellermann was found hanging by the neck in the basement of his posh Vienna, VA home in the affluent suburb of Washington. D.C. way back in April of 2009. It is presumed he had no help and local police have stated there was no evidence of foul play.
FEDS PREPARING TO INVADE TEXAS, LIST STATE AS ‘HOSTILE’ "Some participants will be wearing civilian attire and driving civilian vehicles..."http://www.infowars.com/feds-preparing-to-invade-texas/
Stop being dumb.
I miss the days when we were a real country with real money, and a real president, and congress was more honest and open than the mafia. It is amazing to me that things still function even if they are in decline.
When was that?
Last real america was Eisenhower.
If Gse's were a union they'd get 200% returns by now
Oh well
Who actually read the article?
Bill Ackman? Mr. Herbalife(puke) wants to turn the Federal housing system into a giant ponzi scheme. (upside -down pyramid)
Enter Bill Akroid>
As the Treasury correctly noted when it changed the rules, this practice was rather circular and probably made very little sense (and that’s coming from the people who issue US government debt who most certainly know something about ridiculous circular funding schemes that make no sense):
Based on what valuation?
Here's a good one. Does this clause apply to indiividual property owners, or partnerships?
We know The FED has sold intest rate swaptions. How deep a rabbit hole do you want to imagine?
Did The FED buy/sell derivative hedges to/with/on The GSEs or GSE debt/MBS?
Maiden Lane wrapper to/with/on TRSy as well?
This is a prime example of GOVERNMENT PIGS feeding at the trough.
20 February 2015, by Joe Light (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-freddie-weak-earnings-raise-poss...
Fannie, Freddie results raise specter of bailouts
20 February 2015, by Joe Light (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-freddie-results-raise-specter-of...
Fannie Mae profit falls, sees more declines likely
20 February 2015, by Michael Calia (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-mae-profit-falls-sees-more-decli...
Fannie, Freddie risk needing more bailouts: FHFA
18 March 2015, by Joe Light (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-freddie-risk-needing-more-bailou...
afteer wall street breaks the market...they need more cash from the stupid taxpayer who vote in crooks!
can someone tell me what is the effect of this on a bank in europe who hold
in his books bonds of fannie and freddie and salie mae.
they havent admit their loses yet , because the bonds are long
but at what point sould they recognized the losses?
and how can you predict what will be the selling price of a bond
30-50 years from now(cosidering they wait for mature)?
thanks you all !!
"If conditions deteriorate" Umm that's pretty much a given. How many trillions does it take to prop up a nations real estate market? Dunno, but you, your children and their children will pay for it, that's for sure.
dupe
Timmeh G. Would call this "foaming the runway
All for me. None for thee
Fannie and Freddie are just surrogate 'employment' agencies for otherwise unemployable minorities. Just like the Post Ofice.