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Gold Prices Will Hit Record On Surging Asian Demand, ANZ Says
With Japan all set to become the sole owner of Japanese government bonds and equity ETFs and with ECB officials explicitly promising to print euros until the market finally gives up and submits to “monetary dominance,” the utility of owning a barbarous yellow relic may be less clear as it appears that the path to eternal prosperity runs parallel to the road where printing worthless paper to buy other worthless paper somehow doesn’t dead end at the intersection of “absolutely broke” and “massive bubble.”
Be that as it may, there are still some analysts out there who believe owning an asset that can’t be printed by central planners is probably not a bad idea in an era where the CBs of the world have driven the idea of a “market” to the edge of extinction. When you couple that with EM CB demand and cultural dynamics in Asia, you’ve got the recipe for surging prices. Here’s more, via Bloomberg:
Gold demand in Asia is set to double by 2030 and boost prices to a record as investment and jewelry purchases climb, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
Demand from retail and institutional investors will jump to almost 5,000 metric tons a year by 2030 from 2,500 tons, analysts including Warren Hogan and Victor Thianpiriya said in a report. Prices may rise to more than $2,000 an ounce by 2025 and to $2,400 by 2030, they said. The bank says it supplied more than 20 percent of China’s gold imports last year.
“The bedrock, the anchor of our views of increasing demand for physical gold will come from rising incomes in Asia,” Hogan, chief economist at ANZ, said by phone from Sydney on Wednesday. “Gold is going to have that investment role and it’s going to become more prominent.”
While the bank has a short-term target of $1,100, prices will increase through 2030 on growing wealth in Asia, rising investment by money managers and expanding holdings at emerging-market central banks, the bank said. If China’s shift to a more open economy is bumpy and global financial instability continues, the price may surge to $3,230, it said.
Rising incomes in Asia will increase gold demand as people purchase more jewelry and continue to channel savings into gold for cultural reasons, according to the ANZ report.
And here's more from ANZ:
Under our central case, gold prices are likely to rise gradually, eventually breaking through the USD2,000/oz level within the next decade. This is the most likely outcome, to which we assign a 45% probability. This expectation reflects our core economic and financial views for the broader global economy. We expect the global economy to experience moderate growth over the next decade of around 3% to 4% annually which will lead to rising real interest rates. This should provide positive, though modest, returns to equity and fixed income markets, creating a headwind for gold prices.
...and even though central banks are by definition enamored with fiat money, EM CB demand will drive price gains…
The reaction of central banks, a key driver of the physical gold market, will be crucial to the long-term outlook. Under our central case, emerging market central banks will continue to accumulate physical gold, bringing their allocations more in line with developed markets. This should see central banks remain net buyers of gold at an average of 75 tonnes per year.
...and ultimately, there’s always a China angle…
Currently, the bulk of commodity trading on organised exchanges takes place in the US and Europe. Gold is no exception. The vast majority of the world’s gold is traded through the London OTC (Over the Counter) market, with an estimated turnover in 2013 of over 500,000 tonnes. This is equivalent to around 170 times the global annual mine supply, accounting for 75% of gold traded. While this market dominates price discovery, gold futures traded on the US-based Comex amounted to around 147,000 tonnes, making up 20% of global turnover in traded gold. Meanwhile, China’s onshore gold market accounted for around 40,000 tonnes or 4% of turnover in 2013.
China’s rapid industrialisation over the past two decades has seen it become an increasingly important trading hub for physical commodities. This reflects its status as the world’s largest consumer of bulk commodities, base metals, precious metals, and numerous other agricultural commodities.
This has led to a natural rise in China’s role as a centre for price discovery in relation to some commodities, which will be further enhanced as the Chinese financial markets grow to be the largest in the world. The development of onshore exchange contracts for commodities in China have supported this trend, and have witnessed a significant increase in traded volumes over the past decade. For example, Chinese onshore markets now set the global prices of coal and iron ore.
Despite China’s position as both the largest consumer and producer of gold, its share of global gold trading is currently relatively modest. Two factors which explain China’s present gold-trading position are that gold contracts are a relatively recent addition to the Chinese exchanges, and regulations presently constrain international participation in the Chinese financial markets. Despite this, the Chinese gold futures market has grown in size, and we are likely to see the further development of a market for options and other derivatives in the near future.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSMPzYNXyk8
were have i seen those accurate knda charts before...hmmm, lets see...ecb, fed, acc, nba, nfl, mlb,ncaa.......never are they right...if in 15yrs we get back to were we where just a few yrs ago i will be pissssssseeeeeeddddd!!!!!
Looks like an AGW chart.
I have no doubt gold will go up, but not because of Asian demand. I think it will level out in an upward direction as the West loses control of the pricing structure. That is IF the Chinese bullion bank is not intentionally being setup by the same criminal gangs.
3-4 % global growth every year for the next 10 years...?? Sounds like unicorns and rainbows to me.
Looks like some body used to work for the IMF in the chart depornment.
Heads up Latina, only because I like your titties, There is no such thing as global growth right now. Sell your rubles.
When bankers say growth, they really mean in their portfolios.
Dammit Latina wheres the hi-res version of your profile pic? I swear that tat says my name, but i cant read it.
What was the name of that 'Laka SUSHI' Ackbar Acumen dude from a few years back [that had the purple crayon]...
Is this his work?
I predict when confiscation of gold occurs. It will be at an exchange rate of lead at 2000fps.
WTF? that's like 'air rifle' speed
Yeah, but that potential gain pales in comparison to the safety and security of a negative interest rate sovereign bond.
I'm still trying to find out why the dude before didn't opt for 2,350 ft/s muzzle velocity...
"Prices may rise to more than $2,000 an ounce by 2025 and to $2,400 by 2030"
I guess I could have gone with 2400fps. Just a comparison to article not a discussion on ballistics.
OK... I get it now... You're cool...
FWIW
9mm muzzle velocity = around 1,508 fs
airgun/.22 pellet gun = around 2,000 (from which sprang my WTF)
AK47 = around 2,350
Douche Nozzlery at its finest...
Even douchier..
Under those circumstances, a more fair trade is 1 oz. troy for 1.5 oz. avdp. at 2910 fps at the muzzle brake.
High velocity .22 is less than 1500 fps. Airguns (pump are less than 1000 fps. 50 BMG 2800fps (varies with load.)
.45cal is lower than the speed of sound (ie is normally subsonic) 1127 fps (343.59 m/sec) all can do the job if well placed.
Gold is not an asset, it is an insurance policy against the madness of central banks and fiat money. Everyone should own it. And by "it" I mean physical. You don't plow all your money into it, but you should own some.
It's also a good inter-generational way to transfer wealth. Buy modest amounts, in cash, slowly over time. Then SHUT THE FUCK UP ABOUT IT AND LEAVE IT ALONE FOR A FEW DECADES. If you need it, you got it. If not, your kids get it (tax free and without government meddling, if you followed rule #1 and kept you mouth shut).
A question I ask my clients: Your great aunt Ethel sets aside $10,000 in 1955 for you. Would you rather she had put that $10,000 cash in a shoe box or would you rather she had put aside however much gold $10,000 would have bought in 1955?
(Hint: Gold was ~$35 in 1955 and would have bought about 285 troy ounces at that time, excluding transaction costs. Worth about $328,000 dollars today, if I did the math right.)
You better pray your generous great aunt Ethel was a gold bug who knew how to keep her freaking trap shut!
have you ever known an american to keep his mouth shut? when you're that exceptional it's hard not to let everyone know, daily if not hourly.
Only the smart ones. You can't fix stupid people. Trying to do so only wastes your time and pisses them off.
"don't argue with stupid people, they will bring you down to their level and then beat you with experience"
-someone smarter than me.
I would rather have bought a professional basketball team in 1955.
Folks who lived thru the Depression liked to keep their gold and silver in shoe boxes, in their closets. I saw one, in the 1980's, who built her brick ranch house with her husband's silver stash.
In 1955 a ranch style brick bungalo cost about that in most major cities. My dad bought such a home in 1959 for a little over $11,000. Worth about $350,000 today but sure to go down in value. Gold is sure to go the other way.
I forgot... Aunt Ethel would have had to have been a smuggler. Americans were not allowed to own monetary gold back then. She could of drove to Tijuana and brought back some honkin' Mexican 50 peso coins. Oooh.... they are so righteous with over an ounce of gold in each.
Wish I was in Tijuana, eating bar b q iguana.
iguana's over-rated...tastes like sidewinder.
I believe you were still allowed to own older collectible coins minted before a certain date. ron paul wrote about the mexican mint dutifully minting up a bunch of coins with that date on them to sell to americans like him who saw what was coming with the dollar
I heard from old timers that coin dealers who had a large gold inventory were always concerned about potential seizure at ANA shows and such until the prohibition was lifted. I was only a teenager then and buying gold coins was not on my mind then.
Maybe someone could share their thoughts or experiences on this?
See my previous comment:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-05/gold-prices-and-real-interest-r...
Gold is an asset, and like every other asset, it's an insurance policy against the stupidity of future generations. Look at how many morons today maintain their lifestyle only because of the assets inherited from their parents.
Your great aunt Ethel sets aside $10,000 in 1955 for you...
It would've been great if it was in Au, but what if she instead bought a 1955 USD10K chunk of real estate on the mudflats outside Milpitas? As much as I adore the shiny, burying wealth with your mouth shut, while being a decent "preservation" of wealth, is a far cry from putting it to work.
jmo.
What a joke. By 2030 gold won't be measured in USD but how much bread and bullets an ounce will buy. Hell, by 2030 the dollar will likely not even exist.
It will measure the prevailing currency of the time, not the other way around. Could be !0,000 Yuan, 3 pesos, god knows what it'll be or how the prevailing cash will be compared to it.
The thing is, you WILL be able to convert it into peso, yuan or rials...and you will be getting a supreme premium for the time.
Measured in "dollars"...... really?
I'll take it but a 4% PA compound growth doesn't seem particularly exciting. Especially in view of the imminent collapse of the financial system....
Blah Blah, commodities demand, blah blah, chinese demand, blah blah. Not a fucking word about the trillions in QE and their impact on prices of EVERYTHING. Nope, don't want to pull down the pants of the central planners and their beloved currencies.
China has a novel approach .... you can actually take delivery of your gold !
Uhhhhhh... You mean 20:30 pm CST 3/19/15, right ??? No, you mean the year 2030 ???????? I gotta poop between now and then !!!!!!!
Nipsy Rusell says, "RIIIIIIIIGGGHT"
2030?
Seriously?
Wow....only 15 years. My kids will be sooooo happy. They'll say, dad was really smart!
200+ K in gold & silver bullion.....yea!
Gold will take off, go to $3, $5k, no question.
I just fervently hope it happens in my lifetime........
Hey, you once asked me if I was who you thought I was...I am.
Thanks for the confirm.
Straight up like that huh? Bullshit.
Gold will do nothing because its manilpulated. Then the dollar will crash, and gold will be illegal to own and get confiscated.
Who would upvote this stupid fuckan comment? Not a chance in hell this will happen. Gold is traded worldwide, thus it would make no sense to make it illegal even if the dollar does crash or is devalued. Illogical. irrational and just plain dumb.
Or did I miss the <sarc>?
Gold to 2000$ yes, when the governments owns it after buying back to everybody at 700$...
and for the few who still own it, a 10% flat tax on sales + 75% flat tax on profit, while inflation is running at double digits, means your smartness will look much less smart... resulting in the end of the road by a loss in real purchase.
Government wins, you lose. Shut up
very true. accept when they want it back, most smarts would have already sold it, cough,, lost it.
Or I'll exchange it for you behide the 7-11 for half that amount
The gold market is a pimple on the banker bitches ass. They toy with those prices for fun and games. It will only cease to be insignificant upon total collapse and economic apocalypse. Have fun stroking your fortune just before the band of marauders fuck & kill your wife, take your kids for food and slit your throat. Party on!
That's why if you are going to own gold you have to have some lead too. Hey you only die once, don't wimp out.
Lead, regardless. Folks get killed for a lot less.
That's right. So you may as well get killed for something solid.
Bunch of fucking faggots, worrying about "marauders". If you want to worry about marauders, worry about the ones in black uniforms.
"It will only cease to be insignificant upon total collapse and economic apocalypse."
Actually, city rich fucks like yourself will be gutted by the local homeboys for your watch. They'll stick a nine millimeter up your "culo" as you scream like a bitch.
CLICK.
"It will only cease to be insignificant upon total collapse and economic apocalypse."
Actually, city rich fucks like yourself will be gutted by the local homeboys for your watch. They'll stick a nine millimeter up your "culo" as you scream like a bitch.
CLICK.
could you repeat that....I did'nt get it the first (or the second) time
Gee... don't step too far out on that prediction limb. Sometime in the next ten years you'll be able to say... I predicted that!!!
Unfortunately, I'll probably be dead long before 2030 so I sure hope Armageddon arrives before then. I want a ringside seat. I'll make the fire, you get the marshmallows!
Gold simply reflects inflation. It protects wealth. It won't make you rich.
Oh yea? Well, consider this. When all the ten cent millionaires you know go broke, who's gonna buy up their toys at a fraction of the original price? Will it be someone who's had their bank deposit frozen or bailed in? Gold/US$ can stand still while banking craters. The result is still probably, at least, a 10x increase in purchasing power.
I want to know what's going to happen in the next 15 days.
shit! I want to know what happened last night.
We're all going to get 15 days older.
"Next 15 days", you ask?
Easy: Pump & Dump. Same as always. Drink accordingly.
Tired of seeing stupid ass charts predicting shit decades away. It's ike a weatherman telling you it's going to be 78 degrees and sunny in New York on March 19, 2018.
I suspect once the depression has been with us for another 20 years....Gold will be back to $100...the DOW with be a million and a loaf of bread will be 2 million and Yellen will be even more homely and named Pat!
Wow!!! Within the next decade?!!? Why so fast!!!
$2,000 after a decade? What's the point? I am going all in to beanie babies.
Cases of genuine Russian Vodka would've been a better (financial) investment... for resale or to support a "going concern".
Especially if had bought it in 2011. You'd be up 20% by now.
Why even bother typing this ????
stupid bank "wanna be " analysts, a bit tired of their day jobs so they make all types of "calculations" theat they learnt last year in university.
Hers a prediction, gold will tank once china starts to dump it.
Since when in history have the communists held the wealth of the world?.. things aint gong to change today.
I cant find a bear for the gold market even if i PAID someone to be a bear.. They all need to be washed out first,
Peter
So China is accumulating metal at breakneck speed so they can dump it? That makes sense.
So China is accumulating metal at breakneck speed so they can dump it? That makes sense.
...the big guys know that a gold backed Chinese currency is just about to appear.
"Since when in history have the communists held the wealth of the world?.. things aint gong to change today."
China is only theoretically a communist country. Practically, it is at least as capitalistic as the U.S. and probably more than E.U.
I ate some chocolate .... and a face broke out on my pimple !
So, if you bought in 2011, your shiny asset will finally be back at the same price in 2023?
Too bad that the things you will buy, will cost a lot more than in 2011. /sarc
Smart people will diversify both their Income streams and Wealth (Real Assets, Savings and Investments). Gold? 5-10%. Quietly locked away and not discussed.
deleted duplicate
Lol, $2k by 2025. Eat my ass. It'll be $2k within five years I'll bet.
True. They're just lowballing, for appearance's sake.
2k in the next 5 years or decade? no thx, Ill buy the miners instead
Whatever. I'm ready to put more of it on plastic at today's price.
I wonder why the writers even include the annual tonnage of paper gold sold on the COMEX in comparison to actual?
There are two gold markets...the real one where all gold goes east, and the funny one traded on the COMEX.
Oh yeah, there is third one. The mints sell a bit too... keeping us believing that there is still PM available.
What good is another speculative story like this? This isn't news. I'm going to shit gold dabloons out my ass by November 2016. I can just feel it!
Above $2,000 by the time we're all dead bitchez. What the hell kind of article is this anyhow.
Is this author on crack? Next decade the people will say "What is a Dollar?"
$2000 / oz only if they can keep feeding people on cardboard.
We don't all have kids or grandkids. We don't have decades to wait either. We can't wait decades to start paying our bills or living our lives, when they are already close to over.
Gold @ 2k by the next decade! Just enough time for me to finish sucking out my pond with a straw in search of metal lost during a freak boating accident...
"The MOST LIKELY outcome to which we assign A 45% PROBABILITY OVER THE NEXT DECADE".
BOLD FUCKING CALL, NO DOUBT!
Add: If you buy gold, don't accept "paper" gold. Insist on physical delivery.
Could it be banks crystal balls are broken? Back a while ago plenty of bank economists were suggesting rates would go up here in oz as they were at historical lows. Already one drop and more to come.
How can they predict such stability in Federal Reserve Notes?
How many times are people willingly going to get scammed by another gold troll?
Emilie Rothschild London Gold Fixing website www.goldfixing.com taken offline, chairperson in the shadows
Posted on 19 Mar 2015 by Ronan Manly
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/london-gold-fixing-website...
The last ever ‘Gold Fixing’ will take place on the afternoon of Thursday 19th March 2015 at 3.00pm.
Following the last fixing, the www.goldfixing.com website of the London Gold Market Fixing Limited will be immediately and permanently taken off-line as of close of business 19th March (i.e. the web server will be made inaccessible to web browsers).
This follows a similar manoeuvre on the evening of 14th August 2014, when the web site of the London Silver Market Fixing Limited, www.silverfixing.com, was immediately and permanently switched off (without warning), leaving no trace of the live website.
By the time you read this, the www.goldfixing.com web site may be switched off.
This is very unusual behavior by the administrators of the fixing web sites and the bullion banks that run the Gold Fixing and Silver Fixing Companies to immediately make the web sites inaccessible. It’s as if the two Fixing Companies want to vanish without a trace from the internet.
The Gold Fixing website domain was first registered on 22 Dec 1999 by emilie.rivoire@rothschild.co.uk, and is listed with a tech support contact of barclaysmsosupport@sapient.com. See Domain lookup. So there is still a direct reference to Barclays in the web site and in the Sapient app, which is interesting given that Barclays was the firm that was fined by the FCA for manipulating the gold fixing in 2012 and whose trader Daniel Plunkett was also fined for the same offence.
Interestingly, the London Silver Market Fixing Limited has not been wound up, and still exists as a company, and its directors, until recently, represented HSBC, Scotia and Deutsche Bank. The only Deutsche director, New York based Eric Parker, resigned from the company last December. The HSBC and Scotia directors are still in situ.
LOL.
Gold shows one green candle on the verge of abyss, and everyone dreams of it rising to 2000$ ? You cant fix stupid
According to ANZ:
EAST TO EL DORADO: ASIA AND THE FUTURE OF GOLD
• Today, ANZ releases a thought leadership piece on the future of the gold market. This report, East to El Dorado: Asia and the Future of Gold, is the third in the ANZ Research In-Depth series. This report expands on our findings from ANZ Insight - Caged Tiger: The Transformation of the Asian Financial System and explores the key role that Asia will play in driving the dynamics of the global gold market in coming decades.
• As Asia will comprise over half of the global economy by 2050, the rise in regional incomes will support the demand for gold investments. China and India are already the world’s largest gold consumers and incomes still have a long way to rise before reaching developed-world levels.
• Central banks are likely to increase gold holdings over the long-term. Most of the buying will come from emerging market central banks as they move closer to the level of developed world holdings. The supply side is also supportive of prices as gold mines are unable to expand rapidly. Prices too far below USD1,000/oz are unsustainable in the long-term.
• Gold has a unique role as an investment and a defensive asset. We believe it will remain an important part of investment portfolios for both the private sector and central banks. Gold is a store of wealth in unstable times, and while the global financial system has successfully weathered a major storm in the past decade, the future is far from certain.
• The gold price is likely to rise above USD2,000/oz by 2025. This is our central-case for the gold price. While the near-term could see prices trade only marginally higher over the next few years, we believe the combined effect of greater demand from investors and central banks will see gold prices rise materially over the long-term.
• Beyond its role as the world’s largest producer and consumer of physical gold, we believe China will eventually dominate the price discovery process too, as Asia’s financial centres gradually open up. There is no reason why Shanghai should not become a major centre for gold trading provided the appropriate institutional and legal reforms take place.
-----------------------------------
You can download this ANZ research report at the following link:
http://www.sharpspixley.com/uploads/CommodityInsightEasttoElDorado.pdf