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No Longer Quiet On The Eastern Front (Part 2)
Submitted by Kevin Virgil of Emerging Frontiers
No Longer Quiet on the Eastern Front (Part 2)
This is the second of my three-part series that will explore the expanding fault line between the European Union and Russia, and the early stages of what I believe will eventually become known as the Second Cold War.
* * * * *
In the first part of this series we discussed Greece and its ongoing negotiations with the European Union – particularly with Germany – and how the complicated history between these two countries makes it exceedingly difficult for the Greek people to accept the terms on offer from the EU. The financial media’s reporting on the Greek saga has become quite dramatic (at least in comparison to other financial dramas); it has become one of the more memorable economic conflicts in recent years.
This time we will turn our attention north, to a different kind of conflict. This one has also wrought economic devastation to a European country, but of a much higher intensity. It is the first civil war that the European continent has seen since the Balkan Wars of the 1990s, when the regional superpower of Yugoslavia was ultimately broken up amidst a series of separatist and independence movements. Today’s conflict will almost certainly result in a similar outcome for its host country.
I’m talking, of course, about Ukraine. Let’s take a closer look.
A Very Bad Year For Ukraine
The past eighteen months have been cataclysmic for Ukraine. Its current descent into anarchy began in November 2013 with the Euromaidan protests, when pro-Western protestors denounced then-president Viktor Yanukovych and demanded closer integration with Europe. The protests endured until February 2014, when clashes between police and protestors descended into urban warfare. Police snipers used live ammunition against protestors and at least 88 people were killed within 48 hours.
Ukrainian politics are famously ruthless. Fistfights routinely break out in their parliament (gratuitous examples provided here and here). This is also the country where a former president was poisoned and disfigured by dioxin — and ultimately implicated the godfather of his own children as the culprit. Perhaps it’s no coincidence that Vitaliy Klitschko, a 200-cm world heavyweight boxing champion who has never been knocked out, is now the mayor of Kiev.
Yushchenko, before and after dioxin poisoning. Courtesy: Kiev News Blog
However, even the murder of unarmed protestors proved too much for arch-stooge Yanukovych to withstand and he was forced to flee Kiev within days. A media sideshow ensued when the public discovered their president-in-exile’s opulent dacha outside of Kiev, built with some of the billions that he had siphoned out of the country’s coffers. The ensuing “Marie Antoinette on the Dnieper River” moment, coupled with the rapidly increasing list of his former associates who have lately been found dead, ensures that he will not emerge from his current and undisclosed location anytime soon.
View from inside the humble Yanukovych country cottage. Courtesy: NY Times
In such a chaotic political climate, it is rather unsurprising that the leadership vacuum created by Yanukovych’s hasty exit ultimately led to civil war and a thinly-veiled Russian military invasion. The Ukrainian presidency (also known as “the world’s least desirable head of state position”) was ultimately claimed by oligarch Petr Poroshenko, the “chocolate king” of Ukraine. His Roshen Corporation is the world’s 18th-largest confectionery company, providing him with a net worth of approximately $1.5 billion. He managed to win elections in May 2014 with enough margin to avoid a run-off.
However, Poroshenko has not always enjoyed similar support from his foreign friends. Take US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, for instance. Married to conservative foreign policy commentator Robert Kagan, Nuland is one-half of the perennial Washington neoconservative power couple. Her husband aggressively pushed for the Iraq War; she now aggressively lobbies for American military sales to Ukraine and other Eastern European countries. Tasked with managing US diplomatic relations in Europe, Nuland became famous after a phone conversation between her and the US Ambassador to Ukraine was leaked to the media. During that call, Nuland made several references to whom she thought should become the next prime minister of Ukraine after Yanukovych’s ouster. Her recommendation, Arseniy Yatseniuk (whom she referred to colloquially as “Yats”) became the PM on 27 February but was defeated by Poroshenko in elections. The call descended from creepy interventionist plot into a full-on diplomatic neutron bomb when she was quoted as saying “F*** the EU” in response to the continent’s leaders failing to join ranks with the US in enforcing sanctions against Ukrainian political leaders. Whether or not her interference played a role in the succession of “Yats”, the incident provided the Russian government with a golden opportunity to portray her as a villain, and to paint the pro-European Maidan protests as more of the usual American meddling.
The famous “Little Green Men” of eastern Ukraine. Courtesy: The Economist
All of this aside, it goes a bit beyond hypocritical when the Russians accuse the US of meddling in Ukraine’s affairs. In contrast to one diplomat’s ill-advised comments, Putin has spent the past twelve months taking the art of covert foreign intervention to a new level. When was the last time a foreign power sent armored columns of tanks and troop carriers into a neighboring country and denied that such an event was actually happening?
The Russian Angle
This week marks the one-year anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Conveniently, Putin made the decision to send Russian troops into Sevastopol on the eve of the Olympic closing ceremonies in Sochi. Overall the past year has been quite peaceful if you live in Crimea. The same cannot be said of the eastern regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, where loss of confidence in Kiev’s government led to the establishment of separatist movements and new allegiances to Russia. Over 5,000 soldiers, partisans and civilians have died in the intense fighting that has taken place in those regions over the past year.
Western media has portrayed Russian incursions into eastern Ukraine as a “reign of terror” (a quote from none other than Victoria Nuland) where chaos abounds and no one is safe. One wonders how this can be true after reviewing poll counts from a March 2014 referendum where Crimeans voted on the issue of secession from Ukraine and annexation to Russia — 83% of the population cast a vote, and 96% of those voted in favor of annexation. A “reign of terror” might be under way against some hard-line ethnic Tatars who refuse to accept majority rule, but overall these facts appear to further undermine whatever shred of credibility Nuland and the US can still lay claim to on this topic. According to several polls, Crimeans overwhelmingly lost faith in the Yanukovych government and believed that the Maidan protests were orchestrated by the West. As shown below, nearly two-thirds of Crimean residents have Russian heritage and a collective decision was made to seek safety and security in their homeland.
Ethnic breakdown of Ukraine by region. Courtesy: The Economist
The battlegrounds of Donetsk and Lugansk are far more difficult to explain. These are the eastern provinces where the vast majority of conflicts has taken place. Over the past several months we have been shown images of high-intensity conflict from Ukrainian villages like Debaltseve and Mariupol. Over 5,000 have died in these conflicts since the two provinces declared themselves to be independent sovereigns (the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, naturally) that swore allegiance to Russia, who have had the diplomatic sense to stop short of recognizing their independence. To date the only foreign “country” to recognize their status is South Ossetia, another former battleground on Russia’s border that has remained in a state of suspended animation since it left the Georgian sphere of influence in 2008 (and Russia’s most recent foreign incursion).
Why Is This Important?
Before we answer that question, let’s take a quick look at Ukraine’s economy:
- Population: 44.2 million
- Population growth rate in 2013: -0.6% (lowest in Europe)
- GDP (2013 official): US$ 175B (purchasing power parity of US$ 377B)
- GDP per capita: US$ 7,400 (2nd lowest in Europe)
- GDP growth rate (2014): -7.5%
- GDP growth rate (2015E): -4.5%
- Trade deficit (2014): -6.9%
Ukraine's currency, the hryvnia, is the worst-performing currency in the world with a 40% loss against the USD in 2014 and another 40% drop reported so far this year. A drop of this magnitude has been enough to spark hyperinflation in the country — as high as 272%, according to one economist. Two weeks ago Ukraine raised its benchmark interest rate by 10.5 points, up to 30%, in an effort to stop the bleeding. The increased lending rate makes it all but certain that business activity will come to a screeching halt.
An emergency $17.5B rescue package was negotiated with the IMF earlier this month. The country is no stranger to the IMF’s lending officers; they have accepted eight loans since 1991, and only completed one program successfully. Even with an IMF bailout, the economy is in terrible shape. Foreign currency reserves have dropped below $10 billion, which is less than the interest payments that must be paid to service the Kiev government’s existing debt.
The IMF’s economic bailout is not the only aid package being discussed in Western policy circles. Calls for increased military aid to the Ukrainian government are coming from the usual Washington suspects: US secretary of defense Ashton Carter (who lobbied to bomb Iran in 2009), Senator Lindsey Graham (together with John McCain, the neocon wing’s “Odd Couple”), and, of course, Victoria Nuland of the US State Department who has led the push for regime change in Kiev since the Maidan protests last year.
Unsurprisingly, this contingent of (chicken)hawks is encountering resistance from their EU partners, who are wary of a proxy war on the European continent. Everyone involved knows that, if push comes to shove, Putin is the only player who is willing to send troops to fight in Ukraine. There is not a single NATO signatory that is willing to do the same. This became apparent in 2008, when the Ukrainian government applied to join NATO and was rebuffed by both France and Germany, who cited concerns about “the balance of power between Europe and Russia.” Ukraine has always known that it cannot count on European assistance in the event of a conflict with Russia, and in fact a 2008 poll found that over 40% of Ukrainians expressed suspicion and distrust toward NATO.
Both Ukrainians and Russians are well aware of the enormous power that Russia holds over the European continent. Eastern Europe is almost completely dependent upon reliable imports of Russian natural gas, and even the Germans and French are loth to shake the bear’s cage too much. In addition to gas imports, Russia remains one of Germany’s and France’s most significant trading partners; Russia is a reliable buyer of heavy mining and engineering equipment, and US-led sanctions have undoubtedly been a thorn in the side of the export-driven German economy of late. The US, whose exports to Russia are essentially non-existent (less than 0.2% of GDP), is quite content to sit back and push its European partners into supporting economically painful sanctions programs. It’s therefore a bit disingenuous to accuse the Europeans in going wobbly on sanctions when their interests clearly compel them to be much less aggressive toward Russia. That is exactly what is now happening, as the head of US sanctions policy just visited Brussels last week amidst mounting European opposition to an extension of anti-Russian sanctions when the EU is next scheduled to debate an extension, in June of this year.
None of this is meant to imply support of, or admiration for, Russia’s covert military campaign in eastern Ukraine which has led to widespread mayhem and loss of life over the past several months. However the endgame in Ukraine appears inevitable at this point. Crimea has peacefully and quite happily run the Russian tricolor up the flagpole, and two provinces from the country’s industrial heartland have seceded from Kiev. Several other disputed enclaves sit astride the Russian border - South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transdniestria — but Donetsk and Lugansk sit uncomfortably close to the heart of Europe.
The Kiev-based Ukrainian government has no choice but to accept the fact that its country is, and will continue to be, substantially smaller than it was 18 months ago. Its tax base has been reduced substantially, and its banks are going to have to write their number of ‘non-performing loans’ (currently approaching rates of 20%) substantially upward as they realize that most will never be repaid.
There is a story that was never confirmed, but has been widely reported: at a summit in Bucharest in 2008, Putin spoke to US President George W. Bush and told him, "You have to understand, George. Ukraine is not even a country.” This statement summarizes Moscow’s long-held view toward Ukraine — that it is an artificial state created in the wake of the Soviet Union’s demise. Putin has been quoted as saying that the USSR’s collapse ranks as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” With that in mind, why should we be surprised at Russia’s aggressive moves into eastern Ukraine?
===================
I have been looking at the investment implications of the Ukrainian break-up. The obvious play is to search for deep-value opportunities on the Ukrainian stock exchange (also known as the UX), where 80% of the listings are heavy industrials and basic materials. The UX index seems to be finding a level, after a -35% selloff last year, and has rebounded slightly in 2015. Dragon Capital and Galt & Taggart (apparently Ayn Rand has fans in eastern Europe) are well-known equity brokers who can work with foreign investors.
If you decide to take a punt on Ukrainian stocks, take comfort in knowing that you won’t fare as poorly as Rinat Akhmetov has this year. Akhmetov, a Ukrainian oligarch, has lost as much as $5.8bn in the conflict. His SCM Group owns coal mines, steel mills, and power generation operations in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. His steel mills in other regions are now forced to import coal from Russia and South Africa. Dozens of his employees have been killed or injured in the fighting. Over 70,000 of his employees are located in Donetsk and Luhansk, which are now rebel-controlled. SCM Group has stated that these companies are still under their control and operating under Ukrainian law. (Good luck with that.) Akhmetov is well-known for carefully straddling the Moscow-Kiev divide, an exceptionally difficult act to perform in the current environment.
* * * * *
Next time, in the final part of this series, we will take a trip east to Moscow where we shall further explore Russia’s expected actions along the growing European fault line. We will also take a look at other potential regional hot-spots, and how we might all be surprised at where the next battleground of the Second Cold War kicks off.
One final note, on an update to my recent article on Greece. I was entertained to see that the intrepid Ms. Nuland (as mentioned above) decided to pay a visit to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in Athens this week. It seems that the US has been watching Tsipras’ ongoing difficulties with EU debt negotiations, and has heard about his pending 8 April trip to Moscow where he almost certainly intends to explore alternatives to further austerity as prescribed by Herr Schäuble of the German Finance Ministry. It appears that Washington and Moscow may soon be climbing over each other to provide “aid packages” to the Greeks.
US diplomat Victoria Nuland, on a well-deserved Greek holiday after
months of hard work in Kiev. Courtesy: The Guardian
The world continues to become more interesting every day. See you in two weeks!
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Not sure on the 'columns of tanks' in Cambodia, but planes full of bombs, yesirree, as we wanted to keep the trail open and the war going strong, the money and thrill of it all is just too much for these types.
But in this case, the absolute lack of footage of these infamous invading tanks and armies from Russia has long passed the point of being farce and become just more BS propaganda from the ususal failure dept of whatever think tank or NGO has been assigned to this mess called op Ukie. This prop piece could have been done a lot better if they even tried. 'The Crow' made mention of how these 'useful idiots' were being used for the stupid stuff and how the usual pathological types were taking over the entire business, which we can see that after a few decades all that is left is a mere shell of extremely limited senselessness in the intel crowd. Like all the psycho cops getting away with murder, when the 'good' ones don't step up to denounce the 'bad' ones, then they all get tainted by the BS and labelled in the same light of 'evil'. We here in the States can at least be proud of the fact that we are the ringleaders of this 'evil empire', someone has to fill those shoes, and we get a good example of how the idiots running the propaganda mill here are spewing their BS hoping most of the stupid sheeple will stay asleep and believe their lies just a little longer... a few more months and it won't matter anymore.
A nazi propaganda (in US nazi=neocons), not more and not less.
"When was the last time a foreign power sent armored columns of tanks and troop carriers into a neighboring country and denied that such an event was actually happening?"
When was the last time this accusation was repeated over and over in major newspapers with nothing like a shred of evidence? I would not be surprised, at all, if Russia was providing aid and irregular troops - but suspicion isn't evidence. Not as to sending regular or irregular troops, and not as to proving who shot down a commercial jetliner. The author did not ask about pure bombing - lest we forget, it wasn't that long ago that the US killed about 500,000 Laotians, and more Cambodians. But that was 40 years ago - surely, the US is less, not more likely to kill tens of thousands in secret, or on some pretext or other...
Lest we forget, Obama repeatedly blamed Russia for the shootdown, and not only was nothing like genuine evidence produced {the black and white 3rd party imaging being a joke} but communications which would be expected to shed light have *still* not been produced. Kolomoisky's militia likely shot it down.
As to South Ossetia, Georgia's minister of defense, oddly enough, was a dual ciitzen Israeli Jew, and decided to treat the Osssetians like Palestinians - killing over a dozen Russian peacekeepers there by agreement. Of course, the US backs terrorists, dictators, and war crimes when it isn't pretending to protest them {a great example being accusing Saddam of having chemical weapons - which he did, because the US gave them to him, and the US did not protest too much when he used them on Iranians and Kurds}.
BBC Places that don't exist - South-Ossetia / Abkhazia (2005 ...
The Ossetians did not wish to be part of Georgia and Georgia with US {and apparently Israeli} backing decided they'd kill some civilians and see how Russia would react. Russia's national security in Georgia and Ukraine is obvious - I remain unclear on what the vital US national security interest is in Ukraine.
Yanukovich was a pig, and much of the protests were legit.
but if you don't think the US piggybacked and coopted that, to expand NATO, American and IMF dominance, and to further encircle and threaten Russia, all while raping the average Ukrainian to benefit the oligarchs and large banks - you have no business writing opinion articles.
This author would do well to read "The Grand Chessboard" and "Confessions of an Economic Hitman." And then sites like consortiumnews and antiwar and globalresearch, if only to provide some balance to the war propaganda coming out of the American MSM which all sings the same song, as if all provided copy by the same neocon-run state department hacks.
The US is and has been the aggressor in lands nowhere near its own borders.
And the neocons do nothing - nothing - in isolation from an analysis of how Israel benefits.
It is unlikely to be pure chance that Nuland and Pyatt, both Jewish, both just happened to discuss 3 potential new Ukrainian PMs - each of whom are, like many of the oligarchs, of mostly Jewish ethnic background - just like most of the prominent neocons. Indeed the "neocons" are defined by their warmongering and their blind devotion to Israel. They are basically proxy Zionists - using US power to weaken Israel's perceived enemies or just economic rivals - which is the real story as to Iran.
oh, and NATO troops are and have been in Ukraine for some time - mostly US, of course. US special ops are also in Syria where, when not helping drop food and weapons to the Hollywood production known as ISIS, are helping pick infrastructure and Syrian government command and control.
In essence, the US, Saudi, and Israel are supporting Salafist mercenaries who have been tasked with destroying the Christian communities, other minorities, and generally destroying any chance of a regional rival to Israel. You don't do this to run through Qatari pipelines - you do it to *prevent* Iranian pipelines, and to prevent a rival to the gas Israel plans to sell Europe from Leviathan, as well as from stealing Palestinian, Lebanese and Syrian territorial gas.
The author is an ex army guy with sand in his brains. Probabely recruited at the local Wal Mart.
Excellent summary, Mister Delicious.
Soon to be followed by a train of replies "You're just a poopy old Putin lover", no doubt.
Who shot down MH17?
http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/2015/03/04/
For the history and wwII buffs this is a great video of German army group south attempt to secure Crimea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_TjE_EYYE4
Germans and Russians never should have fought.
I think I just vomited in my mouth....
So iofera/Amerikan Patriot/other avatars unnamed writes for MSM....
Huh!
Even if the article were true... who died and left us the keys to 'fixing' a country or providing funds and boots .. clandestine or open .. to do regime change.. .. we have done a horse shit job HORSE SHIT and fix nothing ... remind me the last time we left a country better off than when we arrived .. what we do is muddy the waters.. create chaos . and move on to the nezt target like a bunch of mindless vandals sacking every country or place they go ... . all with the best of intentions of course.. all to keep the MIC in style... We removed Saddam .. Iraq is worse off than before .. we did the Balkans ans set up a hell hole for jiahd and drug running .. it amazes me how arrogant Americans have become.. how bloody arrogant and self centered... its leaders using other people's sons to do its corporate or geopolitical dirty work .. leaving both the US and the country we send forces to.. worse off than before .. we have got to stop playing god.. we seem to be more in league with the devil these days than wiht the Almighty .
"When was the last time a foreign power sent armored columns of tanks and troop carriers into a neighboring country and denied that such an event was actually happening?" When was the last time or first time a single evidence of these thousands of tanks was produced? Not counting fakes that Ukies feed to US Senate and State Dep with pictures of Russians in Georgia. There are american stationary sattelites over Ukraine that could photograph every tank crossing the border with enough resolution to see faces. Separatists captured thousands of Ukranian soldiers and several hundred of Ukie tanks, did Ukranians capture at least a few of those invisible Russians? Put up or shut up already.
this is a nothing burger. didn't read the 1st and won't the 3rd.
Even the OSCE says they have not seen Russian armor crossing the border.
What nonsense.
And the article makes no mention of Svododa and Right Sector Nazi thugs being trained in Baltic countries that are in NATO.
The article is a mix of truths and disinformation, the project of a confused mind.
Those in the West that are pushing this war mongering cr*p better realize that war with a nuclear power is not worth the brinkmanship for a couple of scraps.
NWO is moving into destabilize the "Stanislands" now as well as Ukraine.
"Mama, don't let your babies grow up to be soldiers." - paraphrased from some band.
Got some family history of military service, myelf included. I have seen the light now and they will not get my boys til Russkis et. al. are swimming ashore in Galveston. If they come ashore in Cali... I'll wait and see. "I am not about to send Texas boys 9 or 10 hundred miles away from home to do what Cali boys ought to be doing for themselves." - paraphrased LBJ quote.
Not ot mention that there was a US government tender in August 2013 (i.e. three months beforee the first person started demonstrating on the Maidan in Kiev), where the US Navy was seeking bids to build and operate some training installlation in Sevastopol in Crimea. So what, one might say? Sevastopol is the very center of the special Russian military section (as agreed by treaty in 1991)!
Also, it is a disgrace on a webaite devoted to seeking out the truth to print such a half-baked and propaganda-filled article as the original post, without a disclaimer "this is what the average article writer is writing". Otherwise one might think the Tylers approve of it by reprinting it.
'Police snipers used live ammunition against protestors and at least 88 people were killed within 48 hours.'
As soon as I read that I knew you couldn't trust a word written.
No way I would waste my time reading it.
Unreliable crap.
Did Nulandstein write this under an assumed name??
Agree with comments above-article is total BS-snipers hit both sides and were not police snipers-nuland has appeared before congress and stated that a reign of terror is in east by separatists with " "russian invaders." she and her staff, include breedlove, have been lying since day one, trying to start a war while the germans say WTF.
They tax the shit out of the peasants by taking the resources away and giving them shitty wages per labor. Democracy at it's best! Fuck the EU.
Man, is this ever sweet to behold.
When I saw the early link to the MH 17 report yesterday (which I posted for the benefit of those who want to hear all sides of the story), I knew that every one of the Okhrana dudes would be chained to their desks all weekend busily trying to change the subject, massage their narrative, and discredit the news that they don't want you to hear.
No Vitaly Klevchenko concert for you today, bucko. You got to help out the Motherland and no two ways about it.
And here they are, ludicrously upvoting each other to the moon and savagely turning on any dissenting opinions like a pack of rabid hyenas. Isolate your opposition, concentrate your fire, destroy it, and then get ready for the next head to rise above the trench. If you've done a good enough job, the next guy is simply going to stay low and say fuck it, right? That's their idea of an exchange of ideas.
I read how they "interpret" the MH 17 story amongst themselves and, wonder of wonders, they all agree that it is a fake, phony NWO plot. It's kind of like switching between ABC, CBS, and NBC in search of some contrast on Obama. Or tuning in to RT for some dirt on Grandmother Putin.
But they aren't about to share a link with you, their readers, where you are free to make up your own mind. Hearing their expert and unanimous interpretation ought to be good enough for peasants like you.
So, in case you want to make up your own mind and hear both sides of the story, here's the link to Jane's. As I stated yesterday, it's not a reliable, scrupulously fair and non-partisan source like Pravda but it will have to do for now.
http://www.janes.com/article/50075/dutch-investigation-concludes-mh17-downed-by-buk-missile-from-russian-battery
So get busy, Okhrana dudes, the weekend is only half over and then Monday is right around the corner.
All wheels are standing still
At thy mighty sinews' will.
That linked article is just wow, WOW!
Some side (or both sides) is going all in, attempting to put up lies so thick even a tunnel drilling machine wouldn't get through.
I expect the claimed "video evidence" will be very poor, as we still haven't heard from single source seeing the SAM characteristic smoke trail. And if they now, months later, present a few such sources it will likely be more like "babies from incubators" style. But let's see what they cough up.
This Janes article is Kiev propaganda. The Dutch investigators denounced it as false and repeated that they have reached no conclusions with the investigation ongoing - as the only quote in the link states. It is a shame that Janes reprints a Kiev propaganda piece but then Janes receives alot of money from the USA military!! So the report you posted tarabel has been denied and denounced by the Dutch investigators! Best read something else that hasnt been written in Kiev.
This post it seems o me as DofS hack, Nuddlemann style dark gray propaganda. The Emerging Frontiers blog seems to be a front or useful idiot for DofS policy propaganda in emerging markets.
Very disconcerting trends however, emerged when respectable publications such as ZH and lately The Intercept became platforms form DofS or CIA operations of misinformation. They must be concerned with MSM impotency in swaying remaining public opinion in the US. The world got over it long time ago, and acquiesced to the fact that US is lying.
Few fundamental points conveniently omitted in this excretion called post.
1. There was agreement signed between Yanukovitch and parliamentary opposition guarantied by the EU represented by German, Polish and other foreign ministers which stipulated reversal of state power more toward parliament and forced new presidential elections within 6 months. This was done without US participation and angered Vicki already suffering from PMS.
2. The killings started even while agreement was being signed and continued afterwards when Yanukovitch ordered police withdrawal. This was a prelude to a coup.
3. The coupe was perpetrated by Ukrainian security forces, including presidential guard disregarding its constitutional duty to protect the president, on orders from Washington which insisted on deposing Yanukovitch against European pleading.
4. Yanukovitch fled to the eastern Ukraine for his personal safety and his family, since his life was in immediate danger. He was left with few body guards to defend himself. When coupe’s hunting parties arrived in the east he fled to Russia. He did not abandon his post. He was unconstitutionally forced into exile retaining his prerogatives as president. The attempt to impeach him back in Kiev resulted in failure even after illegal threats of death or bodily injury and family intimidation directed toward Yanukovitch party members since it did not achieve constitutionally mandated super majority of votes. Legally he is still a President of Ukraine since he did not resign. As much as I personally dislike the guy who is just an oligarch like the gang currently in power in Kiev but theses are the facts.
5. The Russian military port city of Sevastopol was never annexed by Ukraine in 1954 and until 1993 was solely under Moscow’s military administration (and practically after 1993) as was any strategically located military installation dominated city in former Soviet Union, Kaliningrad and Murmansk are other examples. Ukrainians have zero claims over Crimean city of Sevastopol or any Crimean land as you may convince yourself by examining western political maps from just few decades ago.
6. Facing with illegal coupe in Kiev, Eastern regions demanded full autonomy from Kiev at least until legal government is established. The already autonomous, Russian dominated (90%) Crimea demanded independence. Both demands met with aggression. Fascist paramilitary from Svoboda and Right Sector started APC/tank raids in the east for effect of pure intimidation running over peaceful protesters in Slyaviansk and Mariupol. The Crimean’s did not want this to happened in their backyard and feeling support of 16,000 of Russian navy were bold enough to take over their land. It was true that Russians took over Crimea but these were Russians LIVING there for generations. Presence of Russian navy gave them confidence to act. Putin obviously was happy with the stand of his fellow ethnic Russians-Ukrainian citizens which play in his hands of strategic interests of keeping Crimea under Russian sphere of influence not only because of Sevastopol but also because massive electronic surveillance bases in Evpatoria and huge airfield in Simferopol and other strategic installations vital fro Russia national defense strategy.
For much more objective look at Ukraine crisis and war instigating US policies see:
https://contrarianopinion.wordpress.com/2015/01/18/ukraine-no-country-fo...
Maybe someday we will get to see a picture of Plloyd Blankenfiend's dacha, bet it's more opulent than the one above.
Oligarch, a very dodgy dude, appears to have stepped on it but porko will take care of him-this guy is a slime ball of the first order and has his fingers in all aspects of the coup and subsequent activities-he has funded Azov Bn and others which have been identified with numerous atrocities in the east. The Odessa massacre on 2 May had some of his boyz involved. Hunter Biden will be of assistance.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/20/us-ukraine-crisis-kolomoisky-i...
http://burisma.com/en/news.html
Gee, i am gonna throw up if i see one more Ukranian oligarch dacha. They should juxtapose the Yanukovitches one with Poroshenko's next time. Comrade Poroshenko spent last twenty years in the parliament and the government non stop, unlike Yanukovitch who at least took some breaks. While they are all pissing boiling water about dachas maybe someone could also answer where are 40 tonnes of Ukranian gold that were in Kiev's Treasury when Yanukovitch left.
Interesting mix of real facts -even some ones well hidden in western media- with wild conjecture disguised as "facts".
Looks like western propagandists realized they need to prop up their efforts by not providing 100% bullshit anymore.
I think that their should be a citizen initiated war crimes tribunal, the next time one of the politicians or state dept bureaucrat assholes or their money master shows their face in public they should be arrested and tried.
Victoria Nuland and Alexis Tsipras :) http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v393/youricarma/Miscellaneous/Nuland%2...
Not bad... not bad. :)
Western Spin Propaganda here, Mr. Virgil.... either that, or you are hopelessly bamboozled by the Western Mainsleaze Media.
Agreed - totally Western biased spin - - - Russians bad -- americans good. BS!
Crimea accepted Russia with open arms
.
America has politics to play with Europe and NATO as well
.
There will probably not be WWIII who wants to tell Russians what to do with their land
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Ukranians though, I hope Russia thought this through and didnt have the back up plan of nuke everyone
It is absolutely essential for the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk to retake nearly all of the Donbass that is still under the control of the Kiev junta. As the line of contact stands, the DPR and LPR do not possess the infrastructure and industrial-agricultural mix necessary to stand as a viable independent country. All sides involved in the civil war know that.
In fact, for Eastern Ukraine to be truly viable independent state, the Oblasts of Kharkov, Zaporizhia, and Kherson should be combined and integrated with Crimea. However, only a slim majority of the populations in these other oblasts favor separation from Kiev. This not enough for any sort of uprising against the Kiev regime to be successful, unless the separatist -or Russian- military should intervene.
So as it stands, the DPR+LPR are liabilities for Russia, just as their insurrection undermines the viability and legitimacy of the Ukraine under Kiev's control. The staus quo, as defined by the Minsk2 agreement, cannot stand. There is going to be a lot more fighting before this can be resolved. But there won't be intense fighting much before the late summer of this year.
I imagine that the forces loyal to Kiev would prefer to fight a defensive battle. They will try to entice the Donbass separatists to go on the offensive in order to retake the land lost to Kiev last year. Then, once the separatist forces are weary from the efforts that offensive operations entail, and the inevitable degeneration of unit integrity becomes evident, the Kiev forces would try to tear into the separatists in a series of counterattacks. If the battles looming in 2015 turn out this way, then the separatist movement is doomed, unless Russia takes direct military action.
The leader of the Donetsk Peoples Republic is a relatively young and dynamic military tactician. He has promised to form a separatist army of 200,000. An army of this size would certainly be adequate to take and hold the Ukraine east of the Dneiper River. But... This cannot be done without massive Russian aid in all forms short of Russian battalions. And it would take nearly a year for an army of this size to reach full strength and to attain an adequate level of competence.
Unless something triggers one side or the other to act faster than they wanted, or in a way they would prefer not to, the lines of contact will be restive but relatively calm for the next several months at least.
If anyone is thinking to wait until the Donbass separatists tire of their efforts and throw in the towel, they had better think again...Donbass/Novorossiya will never subject themselves to Kiev Nazi domination.
The most important (and governing) point you are not making is that Russia will never under any circumstance whatsoever tolerate any situation that allows NATO to expand eastward to their border with Ukraine.
The Ukraine army is already preparing a Spring offensive.
Totally clueless article parroting the MSM.