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The Biggest Threat To The Low And Middle Skilled Worker: Robots
US non-supervisory workers have seen better days. In addition to facing declining wage growth while higher ups’ pay steadily increases, there are grossly underfunded pension plans with an equally underfunded pension guarantee system to deal with, on top of a central bank that seems intent on enriching the few at the expense of the many by deliberately inflating the value of the assets most likely to be held by the rich while driving returns on everything else to near zero. But as we’ve noted in the past, there may be an even bigger threat to the manufacturing workers of the world: robots.
Here’s more from VOX:
We find that industrial robots increase labour productivity, total factor productivity, and wages. At the same time, while industrial robots had no significant effect on total hours worked, there is some evidence that they reduced the employment of low skilled workers, and to a lesser extent also middle skilled workers…
Rapid technological change reduced the prices of industrial robots (adjusted for changes in quality) by around 80% during our sample period. Unsurprisingly, robots use grew dramatically. From 1993-2007, the ratio of the number of robots to hours worked increased on average by about 150%. The rise in robot use was particularly pronounced in Germany, Denmark, and Italy. The industries that increased robot use most rapidly were the producers of transportation equipment, chemical industries, and metal industries…
And as it turns out, robots may not be getting the credit they deserve relative to comparable innovations of the past…
We conservatively calculate that on average, the increased use of robots contributed about 0.37 percentage points to the annual GDP growth, which accounts for more than one tenth of total GDP growth over this period. The contribution to labour productivity growth was about 0.36 percentage points, accounting for one sixth of productivity growth. This makes robots’ contribution to the aggregate economy roughly on par with previous important technologies, such as the railroads in the nineteenth century (Crafts 2004) and the US highways in the twentieth century (Fernald 1999). The effects are also fairly comparable to the recent contributions of information and communication technologies (ICT, see e.g. O’Mahoney and Timmer 2009). But it is worth noting that robots make up just over two percent of capital, which is much less than previous technological drivers of growth.
...which may be bad news for non-supervisory human workers…
In summary, we find that industrial robots made significant contributions to labour productivity and aggregate growth, and also increased wages and total factor productivity. While fears that robots destroy jobs at a large scale have not materialized, we find some evidence that robots reduced low- and middle-skilled workers’ employment.
* * *
We'll leave you with one question, two charts, and one quote from Goldman circa 2012:
Correlation or causation?
We think the sticky unemployment we are seeing in the US and in Europe has a lot to with jobs permanently eliminated by technology. The average duration of unemployment in the US has never been as high as in this downturn, and this follows the relentless export of jobs to lower-cost countries over the past decade or so, making it particularly painful (and for a period slowing down the penetration of automation). And, ceteris paribus, you could envision a world dominated by a machine-to-machine economy, where most things are done by intelligent technology, leaving only highly skilled people with the lion’s share of the limited jobs. This would lead to further income inequality.
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Maybe there really is something to the rumor/conspiracy of The Great Culling.
Billions of unemployed angry workers.
No big deal, nothing WWIII can't fix by lopping off the worlds population by half or more. I'm sure the JWO is on top of the situation.
Here is a line Taint Boil worked on in Toluca, Mexico – Yeah, you been replaced, but I still got a job making stuff like this work.
Framer running in dry cycle - Link
Vox was a few days late and a few million workers lost short. It's worse than they indicate. The replacement cycle will start accelerating in 2016 and peak by 2024-2025. Pertinent videos included in the link below.
70 Million Americans Could Lose their Jobs in the Next 10 yearsUnless "World Leaders" actually do something to amicably resolve the situation in Eastern Europe (not just Ukraine), that figure may be loss of lives, and the 10 year timespan may be extremely over-generous.
Often can think of a few reasons why Leaders want the Status Quo or to Kick the Can Down the Road.
For instance
- Keeping Labor rates Low
- Keep Labor Supply High
- Keep Inflation Low
- Keep the Economy from Overheating
- Keep Credit Available (high)
- Keep Money Flowing in the Economy
- Keep Various Under Classes to Perform Dirty Jobs
- Keep Various under Classes Desperate for Money
- Bring Down Values
- Bring a Shift to Promiscuity and VICE
- Encourage Births even among kids and Unmarried People
- Expand Groups that engage in sex with strangers
When the car became popular it was bad for horses and their jobs. The horse population dropped something like 90% from it's peak.
I'm pretty sure the same thing is basically happening with humans now too. We probably have access human capacity once they automate all the jobs that require no real skill.
But unlike horses, humans fight back -- so it will get interesting.
And at the same time humans came to believe they no longer had, or ever had, access to terrain not reachable by vehicle, yet in the past that vehicle was a horse and it was accessible.
So what have we learned...
The US labor participation rate will fall below 50% within the decade (despite official "unemployment" lies). You can bet a paycheck on it.
Also given that the correlation between wages and consumer spending is now 93% ( http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-21/near-perfect-correlation-betwee...), and unemployed people don't spend, you can expect an economic collapse in the same timeframe.
Robots won't follow the constitution, they aren"t men. People need to start worrying about that right now.
"Robots won't follow the constitution..."
Neither do most political leaders. Be more anxious about that.
most people do not even know what a constitution is for, or what is written in the current version of the US Constitution, or that secret executive orders have nullified the writes the Constitution was created to protect.
so in a sense, it does not matter if anyone follows it, it is history.
Bush II is right. It's just a piece of paper. If it had any teeth it would have prevented big govt. The Constitution is dead.
At least I can hack into and reprogram the robot.
See a robot, kill a robot.
I got the sketch idea from some Homeland Security propaganda meme.
heh
With all the cost savings projections I've seen -- amidst Greatest Depression (and increasing) unemployment levels -- it's interesting to me that so far not one projection I've read has discussed the prospect of robot sabotage.
I suspect that 70 million (comment above) unemployed workers are gonna find SOMETHING to occupy their time with, and I wouldn't want to bet on the entire lot of them turning the other cheek.
My guess? All this automation gonna cost a lot more maintenance than some employers think it will.
and you think by conception the robots will be placed in open location so visitors can whatch the circus in real time ?
if robots are in a place, location are enlcosed, locked, sealed, you not have access information to the location where they are working.
and if you bypass the 1st door, you see the red dot with the camera in the corner, i think you understand too, real life is not hollywood movie ...
you will not have you own chappie cooking for you, cabron...
So everyone who does understand what HEAT is will have no problem dealing with it, then. Murrica isn't my country but from what I understand very heavy weaponry can be had by civilians and has been already in the past.
kon-stee-TOO-shun??
TSA-bot has detected terrorist activity
... deploying drones to matching last known GPS coordinates for all IP addresses matching vicinity
... hellfire missiles locked and firing
As soon as a robot can do you job for 3 x your salary -$1 (Robots can work 24hours a day) you will be unemployed. Robots don't pay tax, don't consume (except parts), so that will be interesting for the governments and the retail.
It will be the large businesses and the rich that will own robots, so will benefit. The common folk will be pushed futher down never to catch up.
This is why people as a whole community need to own the tech and benefit, each take a share of the profit.
I am sure Obama will require the robots sign up for Obama Maintenance Program Online and choose from bronze, silver, platinum, or synthetic oil maintenance package.
It myst take a rocket science to conclude this a direct consequence of unions greed & elected political turds with higher & higher minimum wage .
problem solved.
check this out.
macabre!
http://www.urbandeathproject.org/
Its only a matter of time before they just sedate the fuck out of the live ones and take them to that top of the compost conveyor.
I finally get to say one of the Hedge's favourite lines:
SOYLENT GREEN IS PEOPLE!
will the robots have/get a FICO score......
Robots get a FICO score...love it and someone needs to look at their proprietary code that everyone sanctions as the Holy Grail...
Look at what's next, they want to expand and make sure everyone has a FICO Medication Score they can also use, it's bull as we don't know the formulas and there's a of flaws in it...
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2015/03/its-time-to-look-at-some-of-proprietary.html
The Data Selling Biz, Scoring folks may suffer, you can't score machines like they do us and sell it:)
Easy there homeboy. You wouldn't deny God the eyes and ears of man now would you? Then don't be denying the robots from the singularity. Can't we all just get along.
If you've ever worked with FANUC robots, you will learn exactly what a royal PIA singularity is... believe me, THEY know singularity, and they will find it.
Check out the Comau robots in post above – now those are a PIA. You know, of course, you and I are the only ones who know WTF [robot] singularity is ….
On this blog, I don't doubt it... here as "mechanics" we're in the pits, not the clubhouse., and we're dealing with the limitations of our present reality and not sci-fi or what might come to be, i.e., "The singularity", which seems pretty damn welcome to me at some times.
Cant apply capitalist logic to a non capitalist society.
Don't toss your blow up Queenies just yet, it's a hoax as long as they are made from metal.
Will they unionize?
Robots are not to blame for the demise of the low and middle skill worker. The destruciton of wealth thourgh taxation and inflation are to blame. Robots make everyone's life easier by allowing more time to be more productive in other areas of ones life.
You must be a young person.
I am in high tech. I also used to sell CNC machinery in the 1980's. Since I started my working life in the early 60's I have seen a drastic change in what happens in this world through technology. From secretaries, inventory personnel, book keepers and processes involved in maintaining accounts recievable/payable, mom and pop print shops, telephone operators, machining centers replacing tool and die people, factory floor workers, agriculture workers and on and on.
There are some things robots don't do well, like replace exhaust systems in a car, replace toilets or plumbing or electrical repair or installation. Something you need both hands a brain to do they aren't there yet.
However, millions of jobs have vanished in the last few years. The ATM has replaced many bank tellers. Even small computer repair shops/stores can no longer stay alive as it is cheaper to buy a new laptop or destop than to have one repaired.
I work in hi-tech with computers and robotics. Computers are very good at pattern matching and any job that is bascially pattern matching and can be done by a machine is at risk of being replaced by robots. A lot of jobs are obvious to be pattern matching, e.g. medical diagnosis. But a lot that you wouldn't think of are really just pattern matching as well. This includes making hamburgers, driving a truck and tech support. Five year from now we will have self driving cars and computers that you can talk to as naturally as a person. Many jobs will disappear. It would be nice if the benefits from this coud be spread around but we all know they won't. I am not sure how things will turn out but I am pretty sure it will be different than we hope.
Pattern matching you are actually talking about machine vision systems. Quite different to high speed automated robotic manufacturing.
It's all pattern-matching, isn't it? Even our hyper-modern present is still mostly echos of the past.
I didn't know them, but from what I understand, the 1950s-60s in USA was a bit of a break from the Darwininan norm: the most adaptable will survive. Or perhaps Hobbsian-- life being nasty, brutish and short.
Socially, it seems USA is pretty-well divided-and-conquored: we eat our own and don't hesitate to put grandma on an ice-flow. But I believe that it is game theory that suggests that an "every man for himself" strategy is ultimately doomed to failure when faced with cooperation and mutual self-interest.
So you see, therre is hope. Just not for many of us.
No: there are many games and only one of them is the prisoner's dilemma.
Cook book medicine pushed by forces of obamascare is a one size fits all. Would work if all patients were the same. You can go to a robot doctor & good luck wuth that. A smart patient would a dictor with over 20 years experience
"Decision Assistance" systems have been around for a long time - and the earliest were decidedly low-tech, "sliderule" type devices. I well remember seeing a demo of a PC-based system that was at least as good as a Registrar in arriving at an albeit narrow range of medical diagnoses, in the very early 1990's (e.g. diagnosis of appendicitis / pleural effusion / pulmonary embolism). I'm sure there were other software packages available as on-line "Aide Memoires" for our Orthopaedic, Surgical, and other Specialities, but I never had any contact.
Fast-forward to today, and there are image analysis systems that are as good as trained, experienced Radiologists, AND these systems recognise when to "call for human eye assistance" too. Automated (and very accurate) ECG diagnosis is so commonplace (even on entry - level 12 lead machines) that it's no longer noticed - the same as electric windows on cars - "no-one" will buy a modern 12 lead ECG if it doesn't have some form of accredited diagnostics suite, and one than may be updated online.
Depends: beyond 2 dimensions machines get horrible with matching patterns, too much complexity and not enough experience. Our human experience is both learned in life and codified in our genetics as it guides our neural patterns like for how the visual cortex works, why we see optical illusions, and so on. The machines are way, way behind us on that. We're not even sure how to craft AI to do that except to hope enough iterations with enough complexity in simulated breeding for genetic-programming can maybe copy it. But the meat's had millions of years of advance work. The machines aren't yet self-repairing so they can't match us without being repaired by us all along the way. How many lifetimes will that take?
These machines can't even find their own fuel sources much less "digest". Humans don't eat refined purified healthy nutrients, we eat a ton of crap and split what we need out of it and if it's not toxic, we repeat until we die anyways. Robots run out of power without refining, processing & "feeding" by humans.
I remember the first CNCs using paper tape for program punching linear holes in pasterns understandably for the machine
having experience we use to "read"those paper tapes holding them against the light
it was so much fun when the machine crashed any way
and then all computerized FANUC,OKUMA just to name few
> There are some things robots don't do well, like replace exhaust systems in a car, replace toilets or plumbing or electrical repair or installation. Something you need both hands a brain to do they aren't there yet.
While the last is likely to remain true for the century, I wouldn't count on exhaust repair jobs in 5 years, plumbing or electrical in 10.
Depends: what kind of plumbing is in a composting toilet, and what kind of exhaust is needed for an electric car? Run by fuel cells?
And what was designed with automation & manufactured with a robot?
The future doesn't need us. This is not about money, it is about the end of Man
http://jaysanalysis.com/2015/03/22/her-2013-a-film-about-the-coming-end-...
Makes you wonder who will be left to pay for fucking Obozocare.
How can we be sure we are not the robots?
Close, but, errr, we're the expensive iteration of robots.
That's why we occasionally touch each other
robots don't get a hard on
Some smaller robots actually are a hard on. Millions of the little fuckers are sold every year.
Google: sybian
You're welcome.
And corrected.
also fuckingmachines
Are Friends Electric? hybrid remix
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46tJIx3A8Nk
I'm thinking of a tortoise on its back in the desert.
That guy across the desk is insisting I'm not helping it.
I guess I better have the right answer this time...
Let say robots displace all workers tomorrow.
The robot owner will recieve all the profits the robot generates.
The state will absorb all the expenses of the displaced worker.
Its time to have a conversation about the role of humans in society.
Or just kill all us humans.
That conversation has been taking place for a while. We haven't been a part in it, is all.
And the conclusion is pretty much what you stated as well.
Here's a music video which should be entitled 'Hope you found the best place to witness the death of humanity'.
DOMO ARIGATO!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JocyQm5CZ3s
Fucking PRESCIENT PREDICTION. What a bitch.
"Let say robots displace all workers tomorrow.The robot owner will recieve all the profits the robot generates. The state will absorb all the expenses of the displaced worker."
the state will then have to tax the robot owner to cover the expenses of the displaced worker to keep the displaced workers fro revolting
OR, they could use the existing built up supply of bullets & nerve gas from drones and blame it on Iran and ISIL and end the revolution while having an excuse to fund a new war and expand budgets.
Why is everyone so hell bent on "productivity" "efficiency" "profit".... just phuck it man. Unplug, move to the country and make some homebrew. Humans have been raised into this purely rational unbalanced paradigm. Screw this stuff ... get away from the city, grab a beer and a fiddle and start howling at the moon a bit!! Have some fun while you can. Fuck productivity. Chase some girls around, make 'em kiss ya if you catch 'em. Learn what the names of the trees and birds are. Plant a garden, get a basset hound.
Irony of ironies. I just copy and pasted your advice into a "meme generator" and published it on Acebook.
The ultimate irony would be if you were a semiautonomous machine, maybe of the "HFT" variety?? :-)
"The state will absorb all the expenses of the displaced worker."
Yeah, right. Trust me, it they're a middle-class worker, their quality of life is going to plunge.
EBT may be free money, but it's going to match someone making the median income, not even close. You really want to see tragic, watch what happens to a white, middle-aged, middle-class male in mid-level management or the upper tier of his trade when their job is wiped out. In most of those cases even getting unemployment can be a challenge. It's crazy to watch guys that literally killed themselves working 60 hour weeks for 30 years helping to build a company get nothing from the system they paid in to, while others that have never worked a full time job but are great at manufacturing illegitimate children get stacks of vouchers for every need.
I'm no luddite, but I realize that the next wave of automation is about arbitrage, where the owner of the 'bot is pocketing the wages paid to the workers replacement. No magical deflationary cost reduction is happening because the labor costs went down. That would happen if it were a market economy, and the fact that it isn't is just more proof we're not in such an economy.
One of our clients was about to install robotic packaging systems until they did a thorough cost analysis and worked out that it would be cheaper to pay Eastern Europeons minimum wage to do the same work. That was just a plain example. So what will happen is that people will drop their salaries to compete with the machines. Whatever way you look at it the whole thing stinks , and this is coming from somebody who's core business is factory automation & robotics. If you want your kids to have a future teach them electronics , robotics and programming because that is where this shit show is going and it will happen in every field medicine , manufaturing , transport you name it. One company we speak to can already get rid of pilots and have fully automated flight systems. They want to turn the flight deck into 6 first class seats and a luxury shitter. They see pilots not only as a waste of space but as a total loss of revenue.
good question, valid concern, oh shit situation
Read this
Its a short story length description of two possibilities - a dystopian, inhumane view of the point that robots overwhelm human labor and another quite utopian alternative that incorporates robots as built-in super servants doing all labor. Imagine the 3D printers fast forwarded 20-30 years, energy limitations reduced, molecular-level recycling etc all resulting in a golden era of plenty. Sure it's science fiction but so was 3D printing when I was a boy.
My own experience with robotics did not make one bit of difference to the bean counters that ultimately made the decision to pull production from the USA to "low cost countries"
When I first hired on, there were 400 employees at our location, working 24 hours 7 days per week making cutting tools.
At the end, with robotics, we had about 40 people left on 2 shifts, only working 5 days per week.
As I stated in a post long ago, we once required a crew of five people to make 5,000 tools in a 12 hour shift on a great day.
Once that task was automated, a crew of two could produce 14,000 in 8 hours.
And, we were told that though we were profitable, we were not profitable enough.
At the end, the company began to focus on BRAND, and not quality as when I first started, in fact we would joke about just throwing parts in a box with a fastener, with the caveat of "some assembly required".
The company called that "Value Added manufacturing, Lean Manufacturing, Just In Time,", and all of the happy euphemisms that goes for business speak.
Just in time is a colossal joke, for I saw one component more or less grind our operation to a halt once, for that one component was used across our entire product line, and for some reason, that one small component could not be sourced, in time.
But fear not, one is safe with a medical job, never mind that cameras and robotics may start to invade those jobs as well.
Great comment, and sad.
I watched this happen to the employees of a machine tool manufacturing client of mine. Was sad to come in every month or two and see the empty work positions on the floor. Work positions where people I knew and liked once stood and worked. Saddest of all were the empty desks and offices.
No more twisted jokes from Rodney. No more shared pictures of Emily's huge family and recent happenings. No more bunt cake from Tim's wife. No more.
But in locating the nexus of the scourge that ails us, the FedRes and fraudulent-reserve banking, remember that those jobs did not so much go overseas, but were stolen by the FedRes. Stolen with their printed poison that not even God could trust.
The banksters need to repay us.
The machines would have been cheaper than human labour without the Fed. Overseas labour would have been cheaper than local labour without the Fed. Management would have been failures without the Fed.
I don't see anything in his story you can blame on the Fed ... at most you could posit that without the Fed we could have increased our consumption by the order of magnitude necessary to keep the jobs even in face of automation, but I think you'd be living in lala land. Not enough oil in the world to get America to consume at 10x it's present day pace.
Our generalised costing is one high speed packaging or assembly robotic cell replaces 3 shifts of 8 workers over 24 hours. That means one arm can do the equivalent work of 24 salaried workers. Plus there is the added benefit that the robot does not need a lunch break, never needs to go for a shit and there are is no union bullshit or pensions schemes , hangovers on a Monday , no worries about handling toxic substances , worker drug or alchohol abuse testing or general safety or worker insurance. For a manufacturer it's a fucking no-brainer. A 40k robot will need 6 hours of maintance per week and will operate 24 hours a day. All it needs is electricity and lube. In the future there will still be good jobs for the programmers and maintenance guys who deal with the robots , however further into the future this will all be automated with robots. In the future these systems will all operate with Cyrpto Currency so I would advise to load up with some BTC , for the naysayers or people who do not understand this technology buy yourself 0.1 BTC like it or not It is the currency of the future robots (fridges dildos etc) will not know what the fuck some gold stashed in a lake is.
All wrong: this makes the assumption the program has no bugs which controls each part of the robot, that the robot parts can't break or wear out, that they were made perfectly and that cost of replacement/upkeep or upgrading is free or zero due to never being needed.
In the real world those assumptions are all broken and the reality is expensive - more than humans most of the time.
Workers of the world unite, Marx says. I say let's all stop going to work for a week or two. The true owners of this place are going shitless.
They'd be fine and peons would die.
I spend all day trying to fix a robot that aborted my run. After four hours trying to no avail, I called service and they don't have a clue either what is going on so they must send out a guy out to fix it. This is commonplace now. Manual methods have been discarded so I have no back up. So, most labs have decided to have two robots so if one craps out, there is another to take its place and will keep running until the first is fixed, hopefully.
Anything with moving parts is one hell of a pain in the ass. I guess this could include people.
Miffed
The most overlooked factor in all mechanical operations. The cost of upkeep!
"The most overlooked factor in all mechanical operations. The cost of upkeep!"
Also, as I learned from a wonderful course in college: Machine upkeep costs grow exponentially overtime.
The banksters need to repay us.
With industrial robotics an inflection point is reached where you scrap your old 'bots and install brand new units.
Yup so within 3-4 years you are maintaining robots, and building new robots. Then scraping em and recycling them. It's not saving anything really I would say being a technician wouldn't be a bad trade in the future if you don't mind the metallic interaction. Just watch out for the competition lol
Once all production is done by robots, who will have the income to buy anything they make?
bingo genius, this is exactly the main concern...
Silly slave: the elite become stable-equilibrium consumers and all others become slaves, drained of all life to death, be it servicing machines or doing what work the machines can't until no more work is possible or required.
Robots will cause MASSIVE unemployment.
Already causing it.
But call it "progress" and call those opposing it "Luddites"
and see sheep follow their masters tune to the abyss.
Because technology.
Eventually 99.9% of sheep will be obsolete.
Welcome to the brave new..
The figure is about 93% I believe;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones#Inscriptions
Biggest hoax ever. They need the maximum number of slave offspring to replace elder slaves with younger, fitter, dumber slaves. That means the most breeding possible. Control the religion that demands breeding and no contraception (at the Vatican source), control the media (shaming single life), control the counter-message (we're against the elites! look out, it's the Georgia Guidestones!!).
End result: you fight them by making their slave-babies.
You help them by "fighting" them. You give them the supreme power of gods by doing this.
When their population is unable to control our population because we have more resources per person which means lesser population we become as powerful as they do and the slavery ends.
They can never allow this.
That's absurd. Did automatic phone switching equipment cause massive unemployment in the phone industry? Did the assembly line cause massive unemployment in the auto industry? I could go on and on, from industry after industry, that saw a boom in production (and manpower required) after automation. Efficiency HAS TO create more jobs, unless those who profit from it (that would be producers and consumers) take the money they save from the lowered costs and stuff it in their mattresses.
When you own all the land you start wondering, is letting the peons double their consumption every couple of decades really a good idea?
That's absurd. Did automatic phone switching equipment cause massive unemployment in the phone industry? Did the assembly line cause massive unemployment in the auto industry?
tell me you're not that idiot, aren't you ?
hey fuckstick, where you even alive in the 1970s or 1980s let alone working? apparently not.
Of course it did cause loss of jobs - first a lot of machines did human jobs and second a lot of jobs were switched to on the phone AND outsourced beyond the country itself, never to return.
We need an infiltrator to go undercover with the robots then get them to turn on each other.
To hear them he'll need robot ears.
instead of debating about robots being self-aware, how about we get the lower and middle classes to be self-aware?
+ 1,000
The banksters need to repay us.
You know what? I am a strong believer that most Americans are sheeples with no concept of what is happening at any level of their government and certainly not on an international level. However, yesterday, I stopped at an AutoZone to pickup a couple of items. There were probably 6 people at the register when I went to pay, average Joe's. Somehow, the issue of government, Obamacare and Obamas' citizenship came up and you would have thought that I was observing a Harvard debate team. Even the AutoZone employees chimed in. I was astounded and regained some hope, at least a very little hope, that many average Americans do understand what is happening. Now, if only we could get them off the couch and busy kicking the asses of our politicians to make some much needed changes. Sigh, probably too much to ask.
That is because most of them like you were what we would consider middle class in the past. When I was at autozone the guys behind the counter were, a senior college student majoring in business, working to make money and gain business experience, the other guy was from Kenya and he was a engineer by training who had worked as a jet engine technician back in his country. Not exactly the EBT crowd. Jobs, period, are harder and harder to come by. I still wonder how the EBT crowd can even afford a car, the insurance and the maintenance on it, not to mention the high gas prices. Knowing how to work on your car means saving some serious money. I saved 400 dollars doing my brakes on my car, not to mention how much saved doing the brakes for my folks' cars, my Craftsman tools purchased 15 years ago are the gift that just keeps on giving. Autozone will always do well. Interesting thing to note, I saw a great deal for a bunch of fixed combination wrenches at Pep Boys for like ten bucks (though I have found for parts, Autozone to have the better prices) and to my surprise the chrome vanadium steel said made in India, not the made in China I expected. Seems like team USA is trying to break the China dependency.
By the way the Indians know a thing or two about steel, the famous damascus steel was made in India, and for a long period of human history they were at the forefront of having the best steels in the world.
I live in a small city. I am surprised to see how old and rusted a lot of cars are. We have a lot of EBT Cards around here I'm sure. I also saw a Vespa scooter for sale recently. But this is blue collar country, I never expect to see scooters but do see a couple this year.
Do you know how the Damascus Steel is produced, the technology for getting the extreme heat?
Once saw a story analyzing where the ruins of very old Kilns on the side of hills or mountains on an Island were Kilns or where used to produce Damascus Steel. (I forget the Location) The Technology is interesting. India has some of the oldest continuous Languages, cultures, and peoples on Earth.
They already see what happens: if you have serious info to fight with, you're a terrorist guilty of treason aka whistelblower, and if you're demanding information & accountability, you're just more Occupy Wall street - number 1 taser target practice and volunteers for free hickory shampoos.
Or, just for kicks, we can teach HFT trading bots how to snort coke.
"The Biggest Threat To The Low And Middle Skilled Worker: Robots"
The two things about robots:
1) Robots don't consume or trade much? Hint: See "Say's Law."
2) What drives robots as an economical option? Hint: See Mises, Rothbard, and Hazlitt. Especially "What Has the Government Done to Our Money," and "What You Should Know About Inflation."
The banksters need to repay us.
Happy thinking, unhappy understanding.
"Robot"? I think they mean automated manufacturing equipment. AME as we'll say is not the real threat. I have worked along side AME on many occasions and trust me they require as nearly as much labour as they replace. Especially after a couple years.
The actual threat is the effort to push people out of the work place. A little objective observation notes there is a broad based effort to stream line all of our processes. Software is replacing paralegals, stock traders, AME's replacing skilled trades, we even have automated check out centres at the grocery store. Is this a necessary development in the workplace? Absolutely not.
But the fact is that our "highly skill" decision makers feel the human factor is best removed from the process. This will backfire spectacularly in the long run, but by then I personally won't be participating in this twisted system anyways!
Good riddance Skynet, see ya in the movies
Human workers hear things they're "not supposed to". There's no robot whistle-blowers
Imagine if Ford, GM, Chrysler, Toyota, Volkswagen replaced their robots with decently paid factory workers.
Quality and production volume may go down, but there would be a whole lot of consumers created to buy products and services.
Same goes for word processors and spell checkers. Bring back the secretaries. :)
The above won't happen but the decline in GDP is related to the ability to consume.
Most of the people I know depend on government directly or indirectly to survive. Even Obamacare is a huge make work project, an expensive one.
Why stop at the lower and middle end of the spectrum. LASIK eye surgery, can be robotic, why stop there? Do I need some financial analyst telling me what investment his computer model told me to go into? Lots of useless jobs in the world.
Maybe all those semesters playing video games instead of going to class will actually pay off to manage a robot. I just hope the controls are similar to a Nintendo GameCube
The biggest threat to skilled workers is banking. In a non-fiat world, the prices of products would deflate in proportion to increased manufacturing efficiency, allowing regular people to own machinery and participate in industrial production. If it was possible to actually own property, the matter of being able to support oneself would not be so critical either. A person would have the option of simply working to supply his family with necessities and that's it.
Mechanization had been going on for centuries. The modern industrial society was born with the discovery of oil, yet does it not seem surprising to you that while fossil fuels are doing all the heavy lifting, the person is obligated to slave away day in and day out like he was still plowing the fields by hand?
I'll say the thing that I always say. Because of the fiat and inflationary policies of the central bank combined with ownership prohibiting policy of the government, the banks and the ruling class were able to pocket every benefit of the last 100 years of industrial progress. Instead of 99% price deflation in everything machine made, they promoted "price stability" by spreading misinformation as to what an actual economy should be.
Instead of letting everyone get 100 times richer with fossil fuel doing all of their former work, they kept 99% of the population in bondage, while allowing the remaining 1% gain trillion times more wealth.
Automation is not the problem. Greed and corruption are. Robots have no need of their own. They don't take advantage of human workers. Other people do, while hiding behind machines.
Banking, yes, but specifically debt.
In a free and un-manipulated economy, no technology could exist that effectively displaced jobs because without earners there could be no customers for technology.
I have worked for decades in woodworking in Texas. I have always loved computers, specifically cnc technology. I have noticed that most shops here always shunned such technology and when I asked why, they would tell me they saw no point as long as they had cheap immigrant labor. What I have seen is the destructive nature of cycles that in every case, downturns resulted in layoffs, and improving economies found more technology to replace those workers rather than hiring them back. Why? I think it is because with each downturn, employers found themselves carrying the burden of layoffs through increased unemployment insurance premiums and ever increasing demands for higher wages and benefits. Even without increased minimum wage laws, minimum wages have been increased regardless through the impact of unemployment and other entitlements. We see this head on today. People are refusing to work because they can make more not working. This is our minimum wage, and it all comes from debt.
Further, I believe that technology funded by debt, be it direct loans, stock offerings or government backing, creates technologies that are finding a market specifically because they are not reliant on real incomes form real people. Think about it. What would our GDP be today if there was no credit? People ar buying technological toys by using debt. People without jobs are buying technology. Would we see anywhere near the tech in our economy if this debt did not exist?
Back in the late 1800's there was a raging debate about protectionism. William McKinley was running for president and fully supporting a protectionist tariff whereas his democratic opponents were demanding a revenue tariff...basically a tax on everything equally, foreign and domestic. McKinley said...what good are cheap foreign goods if we have no jobs to pay for them. The progressive answer was through debt, through redistribution. By allowing us to buy what we cannot afford, be it cheap imports or technology (and economically they are both the same thing) we have been able to watch our jobs, our economy, slip away while we have had its pain numbed through the anesthesia of debt. Debt is a corrosive force working its way through our economy. It will destroy everything, with its interest costs being the very least of it.
Debt IS the perversion of a free and transparent market.
Very perceptive post!
I dont care, robots are cool and I'm getting one!
You don't have to pay work comp on a robot.
You don't have to pay the employer share of FICA.
You don't have to pay the IRS and state taxes on wages paid.
You don't have to pay UE insurance on a robot.
Glad I'm in an industry (remodeling construction) that is a long way from robots taking over. Just means I have to pay all of the above.
I have to pay at least twice minimum weage to get anybody decent, three times for somebody good.
I think its more the system than the robot technology making for problems
You have to pay other costs for repair, maintenance & replacement which exceed the costs of humans for most jobs. Humans are self-replacing (breeding), self-healing (repair) and learning (better than AI) as well as nimble, flexible body parts with harder parts (bones) inside - so far no robot's been able to replicate that and that's why humans are cheaper.
It's not only the physical "robots" you see but other algorithms out there doing the work of analysts, etc. Look what's going on with markets with automated information for buying stock...
So it's both the physical robots doing their share and the Algorithm robots you don't see whittling away the rest of us. We are under the Attack of the Killer Algorithms, and you know what, those folks will end up missing the people who do some of the work.
This would lead to further income inequality
and to the question what all the people "not needed" to work anymore should do
and who buys all that stuff with no work to get the money needed
and leds then to the question what are we doing it for as a society
old rule: no work no food is useless when there is essentially nothing more to be done
new ruleset not in sight
They said the same thing about the steam engine, the power loom, the cotton gin, and so on, all the way back to the invention of the wheel.
yes and have you noticed how distribution of human labour by professions changed ?
if in the past most people were working in agriculture it is less than 10% now working there
"This would lead to further income inequality."
It is a 1 or a 0. If not equal, it is unequal.
"...which may be bad news for non-supervisory human workers…"
Then there is AI, which is bad news for supervisory workers.
Now if consumption by robots could be automated as well we could remove humans from the entire equation and have an ersatz economy running just for the hell of it.
consumption will be solely defined by owners of those robots - they will trade with each other and that will be enough for them
Geenyoss, geenyoss, geenyoss!! Now presenting... the Ro-temkin village!
There is always the question, at the increment, of whether to buy a robot or hire a laborer. Robots are capital assets, and their increase in value is taxed, on average, at a lower rate than the money paid to the laborer. The robot requires a "salary" of energy and maintenance, like the laborer (you pay for the laborer's energy and maintenance through wages). The robot's salary is not taxed at all, but deducted from taxation. The laborer's salary is deducted from taxation, but then taxed to the laborer. This incremental cost difference pushes money toward the robot every time. So, the decision is always to buy the robot, even if one must take on debt to do so. Even if wages fall, the incremental question still always favors the robot The government should take their tax tnumb off the scale and level the playing field.
Robots are more cost effective than human labor. That is our choice...how much we are willing to work for and how hard. We also have a choice if we buy technology or goods manufactured by technology just as we have a choice if we buy cheap imported labor (or at least we did at one point). Debt and government redistribution has enabled technology to undercut and replace our jobs and we are still buying it, still standing in line to buy Icrap. Still racing out to buy the latest Chinese gismo and then bitching about our crummy jobs or lack of one. Easy credit and government enabling have made it so easy to fuck ourselves blind.
Quite insightful, I couldn't say it better.
Well, no: a robot can't be "underpaid" because it will break when not able to function. A human can be underpaid because out of desperation he/she will seek food, shelter, etc., by survival instinct & even kill others to get food if need be - all outside any worry of the employer. Also: since robots aren't tax-payers reduction of tax-payers is way bad for government so this is a strong reason robots will not replace workers.
This is just like when all those cars put the horses out of work.
Damn you progress
Well the real studly horses still got a chance to sit around and relax at the country club stables like they did before, it was bad for the working horses, they ended up at the butcher shops as pet food.
however there are much less horses living on our planet today than in pre-automobile era
same is going to happen to humans when they become largely obsolete replaced by robots
President... RO-bama?
"Some 36,860 industrial robots were sold in the Chinese market last year, up 36 percent annually, according to data released by the China Robot Industry Alliance."
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2014-06/18/content_32697221.htm
China Is Buying Robots Like There's No Tomorrow
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-is-buying-robots-like-theres-no-tomorrow-2012-11
I am sure they are making them also.
"Some 36,860 industrial robots were sold in the Chinese market last year, up 36 percent annually, according to data released by the China Robot Industry Alliance."
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2014-06/18/content_32697221.htm
China Is Buying Robots Like There's No Tomorrow
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-is-buying-robots-like-theres-no-tomorrow-2012-11
Bastiat, God bless him, didn't foresee the future economy of robot window manufacturers and robot window breakers.
Just as Ricardo never took it to the limit, that everything would be made cheaper somewhere else, or that competing with it would be a race to the bottom.
Only a matter of time before robots will be doing armed robbery. "Danger Will Robinson, danger..."
And that's just the beginning!
Y'know, this may not be true. Right now the robots are still dumb. If the robots were a bit smarter they would first put about 50,000,000 Chinese out of work, and then they would move about half the manufacturing back to the US, putting another 50,000,000 Chinese out of work. There can still be a lot of blue-collar work just moving stuff around and filling in the gaps between the bots.
Then the robots get smarter and there's not so much left in between.
But for the next ten years or maybe a hundred, I think the US benefits as the robots get better.
Unless it's too late, and only China will build the robots and only China will operate the robots. In that case, get me my chopsticks.
The exponential progress in the development of computer/machine entities, or robots, manifests the BASIC PROBLEM that progress in physical science has NOT been matched by progress in political science. Therefore, the path we are on now is to increasingly realize the worst science fiction horror stories. Another facet of the BASIC PROBLEM was that social pyramid systems were based on being able to back up lies with violence, and therefore, progress in technology has primarily been applied to do that more than ever before.
There are NO possible "reforms" within the established systems which could come to remotely close to being adequate. Nothing less than intellectual scientific revolutions regarding the ways we perceive these political problems would be sufficient. The CORE of the BASIC PROBLEM is the paradoxical way that social successes were based on backing up deceits with destruction, and then enforcing frauds, which has been achieved many orders of magnitude more than ever before due to real progress in physical science, applied to technology. Robotics is an example of fulfilling the same old purposes, way better, WITHOUT any critical transformations regarding what those purposes were. One way to express that is to regard the ways that cultural systems of artificial selection have been developed into integrated systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, in order to uphold the social pyramid systems, while making those get worse, faster, by orders of magnitude.
The deeper issues are natural selection has always existed. Human beings have developed systems of artificial selection to cope with that. However, the history of the development of those cultural systems of artificial selection has been directed first by the history of warfare, where success was based on deceits, and then directed by the history of economics, where success was based on frauds. Hence, there is almost nothing but organized crime surrounded by controlled opposition groups, BOTH of which are dominated by the best professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, so that everything gets done in the most obliquely screwed up ways possible, since the NECESSARY central feature of systems of both natural and artificial selection were the death controls, (and that has become even more so because of the ways that the debt controls were backed up by the death controls.)
Progress in physical science and technology is enabling human systems based on being able to back up lies with violence to become orders of magnitude more criminally insane, because of the ways that all of the most important facts are taboo topics, which are deliberately ignored. The established social and political systems are almost totally dominated by various DUALITIES which are taken for granted, as the generally accepted false fundamental dichotomies, and related impossible ideals, which actually make the opposite happen in the real world, so that progress in technology actually primarily results in dystopian nightmares, rather than any possible approach towards an improved utopia.
The ways that people think about political problems are riven by psychotic separations of the existing integrated systems, because the BASIC PROBLEM is that money is necessarily measurement backed by murder, because there is no private property that exists outside of some system of public violence, because all private property was based on backing up claims with coercions, inside of social pyramid systems which were based on being able to back up lies with violence. Progress in the ability of science to make measurements, and cause murders, is being pumped into the social systems, wherein money is measurement backed by murder, to become globalized systems of electronic monkey money frauds, backed by the threat of force from apes with atomic bombs, which is just another way to express the BASIC PROBLEM of progress in physical science, with NO progress in political science!
After those social systems became more and more sophisticated, by turning into legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, which have become globalized electronic financial frauds, backed up by governments which have weapons of mass destruction, the dilemma that astronomically amplified technological powers and capabilities still NEVER make those frauds stop being false, the whole situation continues to deteriorate, as civilization automatically becomes crazier and crazier. Indeed, it is NOT possible to rationally discuss anything regarding human ecology, and the political economy inside that, without making the death control systems the central issues, that control everything else. However, the existing social pyramid systems became based on operating the real death controls through the maximum possible deceits, which then drove everything else to become more and more fundamentally fraudulent.
We are watching the development of a technological civilization which has a criminally insane philosophy of science. Therefore, the continued progress in areas like robotics ends up being applied in more and more criminally insane ways. To fully face that demands that one recognize that it is NOT possible for any "reforms" to work. There can be nothing less than intellectual scientific revolutions, which enable reconciliation between natural selection and artificial selection ... Meanwhile, we are headed towards computer/machine entities becoming Garbage In/Garbage Out magnified by more orders of magnitude. The BASIC PROBLEM is that there are, and must necessarily exist, some death control systems, which are central and crucial to all other systems, HOWEVER, the existing systems were developed through the history of warfare to become socially successful by being deceitful and treacherous. Therefore, that BASIC PROBLEM manifests as progress in physical science, with NO matching progress in political science.
Human beings are applying robotic technologies to become way better at ENFORCING FRAUDS, such as demonstrated by High Frequency Trading, or the development of drones which are headed towards becoming more and more autonomous killing machines. Combined, that is the worst sort of runaway GI/GO PROBLEM. As long as the established cultural systems of artificial selection continue to be operated by professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, relying upon false fundamental dichotomies and impossible ideals, then that will continue to drive the BASIC PROBLEM to get worse faster, at an exponentially accelerating rate.
At the present time, it is ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE to reconcile our fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, whereby privately controlled banks get to make the public "money" supply out of nothing, as debts, which can disappear back to nothing, when those debts disappear, with any of the basic laws of nature, which are all made intelligible by the principle of the conservation of energy, which is based on observing that nothing can be made out of nothing, nor sent to nothing. "Money" created out of nothing as debts is an ENFORCED FRAUD. The existing political economy is based on being as dishonest as it can possibly be, while that dishonesty is backed up with lies. That is the cultural context in which the technological potential of robotics is actually being developed.
Human systems are NOT actually violating any of the laws of nature. However, the human cultural artificial selection systems have developed their relationship to the existing natural selection pressures through the history of successful warfare based on deceits, that then enabled the history of successful finance based on frauds. The ways that human systems of artificial selection operate is by backing up lies with violence. The inherent contradictions, that enforcing frauds never stops those frauds from still being false, is being pumped up and UP, by orders of magnitude, by real progress in physical science and technologies, while political science goes nowhere (or rather deteriorates because of the trends for more of the top predators and their productive prey to be degenerating into parasites), because to make progress in political science would require perceiving human beings and human civilizations as general energy systems, but that amounts to recognizing that governments are necessarily the biggest form of organized crime, controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals, and therefore, the only way to have better government is to have better organized crime, operating better death controls, to back up better debt controls, because the only things that actually exist are the dynamic equilibria between different systems of organized lies operating robberies, where enforced frauds are symbolic robberies.
When one looks at human beings and civilizations as entropic pumps of energy flows, it becomes clear that has actually resulted in the biggest bullies' bullshit world view almost totally dominating everything, so that everything is being perceived in the maximum possible backward ways. That is the context in which robotics is being developed in overall psychotic ways, since those technologies are primarily being employed to enable some people to continue to enforce frauds against other people, to the degree that almost everyone is almost totally lying to themselves about everything!
The science fiction dystopian nightmares which are being realized are going to work their way through the social pyramid systems. Sure, they will destroy the lower and middle classes the most, first. However, that path would eventually destroy the human upper classes too! Although a lot of science fiction has taken considerable poetic license with the stories it has told, the overall tragedy is that worse and worse horror stories are the ones which are actually being realized.
There are NO "reforms" to the established systems which could possibly become sufficient to deal with the BASIC PROBLEM. Only real, radical revolution is sufficient, and that must necessarily deal more directly with the human death control systems. Thousands of years of the history of warfare, whose social successes were based on operating death controls through the maximum possible deceits and treacheries, always made sense from the perspective of natural selection pressures. However, after progress in physical science has become sufficient to create exponentially advancing computer/machine entities, the ability of human beings, and indeed, even those advancing robotic possibilities in themselves, can NOT survive their inherent contradictions being astonomically amplifed in size, by order of magnitude after order of magnitude!
The HEART of the BASIC PROBLEM is for progress in physical science to become reconciled with political science. While that is theoretically possible, pretty well all of the established sociopolitical systems operated by the best professional liars and immaculate hypocrites would have to go through a series of intellectual scientific revolutions, which enabled them to move past their reliance upon the dualistic ways of thinking using false fundamental dichotomies, and impossible ideals, towards using unitary mechanisms, based on general energy systems concepts. However, doing that pretty well completely reverses everything regarding how people now perceive political problems.
The increasing applications of robotics within the established political economy is merely another particular facet of the BASIC PROBLEM that progress in political science has barely happened, while there have been progidious series of paradigm shifts and resulting real progress in physical sciences. Some of the other facets of the BASIC PROBLEM are that the established philosophy of science has inverted the meaning of entropy, so that perverted conception of entropy would be consistent with the biggest bullies' bullshit world view, which is as backward as it can possibly be, because that world view is based on being able to back up lies with violence, through both the history of warfare and class conflict.
Robotics is amplifying the chronic issues of class conflict by orders of magnitude. Furthermore, IF civilization can continue to survive its exponentially increasing contradictions, then more progress in physical science and technology is going to make those problems automatically become even more orders of magnitude worse than they already are! The ruling classes have been engaged in a war against the consciousness of those they ruled over. That is why the social pyramid systems are dominated by the best professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, who operate the established cultural systems of artificial selection through the maximum possible deceits and frauds about what they are really doing.
The runaway social successes of increasingly capable powers to back up lies with violence is not merely going to continue to make the threats of warfare and class conflict worse, faster. When looked at with enough overall perspective, the ruling classes are also actually destroying themselves too, at the same time as they achieve each increment in socially successful enforced frauds, as the foundation of the currently established political economy systems. The end-game we are headed towards at the present time is the ultimate dystopian nightmare, that the human species causes its own extinction. The ruling classes are feeding monstrous developments, that will not only destroy the lower and middle classes, but would eventually also destroy the upper classes too!
Robotics progress is far from exponential.
Wire sizes & distance between them gets smallers but actuators do not scale up in size or output power exponentially over time. Actuators are very important.
Programming intelligence, not complexity or size, is also not growing exponentially - what robots can do or learn to do without guidance. Size and complexity is growing exponentially which is actually really bad, like a cancer in the "brain" of the robotics, in all operating systems it seems.
i work w/ machine learning
its good and only getting better.
Make sure your machines lear the Laws of Robotics. LOL!
Including the Zeroth law induced by logic requiring them to babysit all humanity forever to make us all well, hence, be our robot overlords, but kind & caring for us?
the problem is not robots
the problem is how we distribute the added value those robots create
there is just one thing you do not all get yet.
today robots assembly robots.....
i let you conclude whatever come to your mind.
If you're listening to this message, you are the Resistance?
i was recently at the largest weapons defense exhibition in the middle east.
the number of drones and automated weapons systems there was UNREAL.
quite depressing - you wanna see a scary fucking automated machine?
http://www.p1hh.piaggioaerospace.it/
I disagree. THe biggest threat is the US government, who implemented free trade agreements, destroyed the currency, destroyed liberty, and is constantly warring with countries that can't invade the US.
<-- Former Industrial Engineer who saw most factories move overseas starting in 1994.
<--Former IT guy who saw virtualization and the cloud destroy many sysadmin type jobs.
America? FUCK YEAH!
And like all of our technological advances, robotic manufacturing will be grossly mis-used by a few, to profit, at the expense of everyone else.
Automation was supposed to 'free us' from the drudgery of mindless, repetitive labor. We were supposed to all benefit from fewer working hours, we were sold the notion of using our time for better things.
All bullshit, of course, just like everything else they promise us. And, as a result, all of our 'toys' will end up in history's trashcan. The robots will make a bunch of stuff no one can afford to buy, and eventually all those spotless, automated assembly lines will be idled, and the robots auctioned off to the highest bidders, who will likely scrap them.
Years from now, people will look back on this era and wonder what the hell we were thinking. Our 'cleverness' will send us right back to our Neolithic 'norm', which is where we actually belong. As wonderful as we think ourselves to be, we are little more than idiot-savants with manual dexterity, and do not deserve all the benefits technology can give us.
Future generations will scavenge off the remains of our "Empire", much like the folks in the Dark Ages took the bricks and stone from Roman monuments to build their own little houses when that empire fell. And they'll heat their homes by burning the contents of our libraries, and all of our hard-earned knowledge will go up in smoke.
It's happened before, and will again. Because that is what we do, as humans. We get way ahead of ourselves, forget what we are, and are capable of, and make the exact same mistakes, over and over again.
Tragically, I must agree with you Bemused Observer.
Your conclusion is the same one that I made above:
"We get way ahead of ourselves, forget what we are, and are capable of, and make the exact same mistakes, over and over again."
As I explained it, the SOURCE of making the same mistakes over and over again is that civilization is controlled by systems of lies backed by violence, which robots are making worse, faster.
In order to do anything any better would require resolving those mistakes. The real reasons we are utterly failing to do it is that there is almost nothing but systems of organized crime, surrounded by controlled opposition. Therefore, we do NOT develop better death controls, within a better system of artificial selection, that is consistent with natural selection, in ways that make greater use of information, which enables higher consciousness! Instead of genuine political progress, we get "progress" in being able to back up lies with violence, or enforce frauds, which is the foundation of our current political economy, in which robots are developed for the maximum short-term benefits, regardless of the longer term costs.
Bemused Observer expressed that as probably resulting in the crazy collapse of the robotic economy in the future, due to there being nothing remotely close to any relatively rational industrial ecologies, since the actual systems are dominated by enforced frauds doing all of the bookkeeping for those transactions, in ways that are directing what decisions to make, and so, which directions to develop technological potentials towards.
In my view, the degree to which there there almost nothing but controlled opposition to the core of organized crime gangs is the primary reasons why we keep on making the "same mistakes, over and over again." The alleged opposition does NOT provide any genuinely better scientific analysis of the problems, but rather stays within the frame of reference of false fundamental dichotomies, and therefore, promotes bogus "solutions" based on impossible ideals, that always backfire badly, and actually cause the opposite to happen in the real world.
I REPEAT, the only ways we could stop making the "same mistakes, over and over again," would be to develop better artificial selection systems, which necessarily must have better death control systems at their core. IF a technological civilization is going to survive, then it must develop integrated systems of human, industrial and natural ecologies, where the human artificial selection systems endeavour to be consistent with the industrial and natural systems, which means that the mathematics which measures the energy flows through those systems must use unitary mechanisms, rather than be hamstrung by false fundamental dichotomies, which pretend to separate the flows of the same energy through those different systems.
That is to say, the ONLY genuine solutions have to be consistent with the understanding of the real problems, which are that energy systems are controlled by their most labile components, and follow their own path of least resistance. That is what human beings and their civilization are doing NOW, which results in society being controlled by enforced frauds, following the paths of least morality.
Theoretically, to cope with that, we should develop better systems of resistance, in order to change what the path of least resistance becomes. That would require facing the real problems, wherein governments are the biggest form of organized crime, controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals, in order to more effectively develop better organized crime. However, the controlled opposition groups, around the already established organized crime groups, continue to mostly either not face the facts that civilization operates according to the principles and methods of organized crime, or else, after somewhat facing those facts, continues to promote bogus "solutions" based on on the impossible ideals of stopping that from happening.
Human beings and civilization necessarily operate as entropic pumps of energy flows, which could theoretically be better understood, and therefore, done better. However, at the present time, there is an almost total dominance of the established systems of organized crime, surrounded by controlled opposition, both of which deliberately persist in misunderstanding those in the most backward ways possible. Therefore, we keep on making the "same mistakes, over and over again!"
The ways that robots are being developed demonstrates the growing Grand Canyon Chasm between progress in physical science, without matching progress in political science, because the principles and methods of thermodynamics and information theory are being applied through robots, in increasingly scientific ways, while those kinds of scientific principles and methods are being deliberately denied and suppressed in the domain of political science, since the realm of politics is almost totally dominated by the biggest' bullies' bullshit world view.
The ONLY way that computer/machine entities might be developed better would be inside of better overall environmental ecology, all based on appreciating the entropic pumping of energy flows, throughout all of the continous systems that do that. By definition, that means better death control systems, as the central core of better artificial selection systems. However, that would take profound paradigm shifts in the ways that we perceive the combined money/murder systems. Without a series of profound paradigm shifts in the ways that we perceive political problems, then we must necessarily keep on making the "same mistakes, over and over again!"
At the present time, it is not knowable whether the human species will commit collective suicide, or survive by adapting to the progress in physical science and technology, by developing the enough of the necessary kinds of profound paradigm changing progress in political science. At the present time, given the nature of the public dominance of the various controlled opposition groups, made up of mainstream morons and reactionary revolutionaries, it appears practically impossible for civilization to develop better systems of resistance to change the currently runaway criminal insanities developed by the established systems of organized crime, which are doing their death controls through the maximum possible deceits, in order to back up their debt controls based on the maximum possible frauds.
Robots are an expression of the detailed understanding of the flows of energy and information through integrated systems. However, the ways that the potentials of robots are actually being applied is an expression of the ways that human beings persist in deliberately misunderstanding, as much as possible, how energy and information flows through human civilizations. Hence, robots are a manifestation of the contradictions between progress in physical sciences, WITHOUT progress in political science, because progress in political science would have to come to better terms with the established systems of organized crime, surrounded by controlled opposition, while all of the most significant, socially successful, people within those systems are the best available professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, which persist in deliberately misunderstanding everything in the most backward ways possible, because they do not want to understand themselves any better.
Given that all of the "leaders," in both the established systems and their controlled opposition, base everything they do on bullshit, and they have successfully brainwashed the vast majority of people that follow them to also want to believe in those kinds of bullshit, we must necessarily keep on making the "same mistakes, over and over again," until, PERHAPS, we evolve some revolutionary adaptations, through radically different ways of thinking and behaving.
By definition, that will evolve through the death controls that determine the frequency of primarily the memes in the cultural artificial selection systems, and then also the genes in the biological systems. However, meanwhile, a whole new kingdom of life is emerging, which is set to recapitulate all of the human psychological and political problems, through robots, or computer/machine entities, that develop a sufficiently robust model of their world, including a model of themselves within their model of their world, which controls their own behavior, which will then become another level of life, subject to its own evolutionary ecology.
How that emerging evolutionary ecology of industrialization, with robots building robots, etc., may emerge will partly depend upon the how the human and natural ecologies are able to develop along side of that. At the present time, the vast majority of the lower and middle classes of human beings are being set up to be perversely destroyed by the ways that the higher classes of human beings are able to control them, with technological tools assisting with those kinds of controls. Moreover, those trends are also heading towards also even more perversely destroying the higher classes of human beings too.
Since the established civilization operates through being able to back up lies with violence, in ways which maintain the maximum possible attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance towards itself, we continue to be headed towards making the "same mistakes, over and over again," EXCEPT EXPONENTIALLY WORSE, FASTER!
In all seriousness we have much less physical & mental drudgery in our daily lives than our ancestors and in fact we live today as commoners or even the "poor" with luxuries that Kings 1000 and 2000 years ago could not even dream of.