This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
New Home Sales Data Goes Full Retard With Report Frozen Northeast Saw 153% Surge
This is how ridiculous government data has become: in the same month in which both Housing Starts and Existing Home sales significantly missed expectations, misses which were promptly blamed on the weather, the Census Bureau moments ago released a stunner of a New Home Sales number, which supposedly rose from an upward revised 500K to 539K, smashing expectations of 481K, a 25% spike from a year ago and up 7.8% from January, which incidentally is also the highest number since February 2008, even as the median home price dropped to the lowest since September.
And a close-up on the divergence...
Thanks to the biggest beat since 2005...
All of this would be great... if it was remotely credible. It isn't, for three reasons.
First, as Census always admits in the fine print, the 90% confidence interval on the 7.8% increas is +/- 15.2%
Second, as we reported last year, after reported relentless beats in the middle and late part of 2014, Census would downward revise the data for 6 months in a row!
Third, and final, the reason why today's data is just absolutely seasonally-(un)adjusted garbage is because somehow, even when all the other housing data woul dhave us believe the NOrtheast was a barren wasteland of snow and freezing soil, New Home Sales in February in the Northeast rose from 17K to 43K, an increase of 153%!
And just like that the Census Bureau has itself also gone full retard.
»
- 42665 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Oh trust me.......this isn't full retard yet......it will get way more retarded before this game is over
They are probably including fridge boxes in 'home' sales now.
The Census Bureau director reports directly to the West Wing of the White House ... not the Commerce Department. It's been that way for 6 years.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123423384887066377
i have gotten my puke bucket and put plastic over the furniture and i am now turning on cnbc to see how they cover this news.....
Getting pretty high on the retarded scale, or just really, really, high, here in AZ. They're breaking out the "buy now before it's too late", and "inventories are low" memes again. Right in the middle of the segment they had on local say "I don't know how they can say inventories are low when there are ten houses for sale in my neighborhood", but all the rest was "hurry!"
Let's be clear: Igloo sales were up during this period.
you can't make that shit up
oh, wait
The U.S. went full retard years ago. Some are just catching up.
The Department of Finance in CANADA shill for the housing market with phony new housing starts numbers too, Z/H. Our government administrators are just as retarded as the USA retards IMHO. Frankly, Joe Oliver, our FM, is an ex-Goldman Sachs Executive-RETARD that was indoctrinated by Lloyd Blankfein himself. The name-of-the-game is
SUBPRIME Ponzi shilling in Q1 so the Banksters can pump you UP with irrational exuberance before the developers get new cohorts to sign on the bottom line, and the banks get to generate more triple "AAA" Securities. In brief, 'hot-dogs'-into-'sirloin' is pumped n' dumped until all the newbies are standing in-line.
"Hard times are here, and we think they are going to be here for the foreseeable future."
http://247wallst.com/commodities-metals/2015/03/24/what-an-84-dividend-c...
Very Green Shootish if you ask me.
Just sold my house at the beach in east central florida into a generous unsolicited bid. Looking to downside away from the waterfront I've run into a sea of flippers bidding and selling everything in sight in the midlevel market. I didn't expect this. Looks almost like it did here in 2006/07.
where in east central FL? Im there too, its interesting to see that again. I do see a lot of for sale signs around. I play golf on a course surrounded by the quintessential florida Mcmansions, Ive been told over 1/3 of them are empty, and yet they are still building new ones all the time. There is even a new neighborhood full of them just starting close to my house. It does smell very 2006-ish
Florida is something of a special case, with dramatic boom/bust cycles going back at least to the 1920's.
The highest fucking point in Florida is 354 foot Britton Hill, on the border with Georgia.
Most of the 'hills' in Florida are 100 to 150 feet.
Good luck with that when the tsunami comes...
I mean, as a Geology minor, most of Florida is barely above sea level, and it won't take much more polar ice melt to put much of it under. Whether you agree with climate change or not ('course it's changing, it's always changing), Greenland ice is melting:] The Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced record melting in recent years and is likely to contribute substantially to sea level rise as well as to possible changes in ocean circulation in the future.
Good fucking luck to all those condos along Miami Beach...https://www.google.com/search?q=miami+beach+hotels&espv=2&biw=1093&bih=5...
This is a disaster waiting to happen, and it will, whether thru sea level rise or massive hurricane or a combination - geology gives you a longer-term perspective. Buying land and or property in coastal florida is like BTFATH in the S&P...
"all real estate is local" some say. My friend was transferred up to New England and bought a house for $826,000 back in ... mmm ... about 2008. It plunged and is still listed on zillow/trulia etc for less then $500k as is the rest of his area. This correction may be in the forecast for many other areas also.
I play on a course as a seasonal Floridian and each time I play there
is another shitty McMansion going up. Never see any people but
I assume there for all the commodity country millionaires that will be
buying them to move money out of their country. It's all BS
What seems inappropriate = SOP with our transparent Admin.
Maybe the numbers now include mobile homes, dog houses, houses of ill repute, and tree houses.
And don't forget RV's
What!? You mean you don't trust the gov data? Since when would your gov lie to you? Impossible...
I expect the new home sales number to be revised downward somewhat. But it's not a surprise to see new home sales deviate upward in this situation. (I've got 40 years in real estate). It has happened many times before.
Bad weather doesn't affect the ordering of a new home in the same way it slows resales. the buying of resales requires a lot of driving around and walking around yards, etc. which is hard in bad weather. To buy a new home, people often visit the development once and everything else can happen over the computer, even the picking of the lot location.
Charts don't always describe the real world well.
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
All this BULLSHIT is necessary to convince people that the economy was ROARING and was crashed due to Russia, et. al.
key word = [was]
The PC backlash at that movie was amusing. Their references to the term retard were offensive to some. They dont get the overt ignorance of dialogue and references to mental retardation is a laugh on the characters, not people mentally challenged.
Kirk Lazarus: Check it out. Dustin Hoffman, 'Rain Man,' look retarded, act retarded, not retarded. Counted toothpicks, cheated cards. Autistic, sho'. Not retarded. You know Tom Hanks, 'Forrest Gump.' Slow, yes. Retarded, maybe. Braces on his legs. But he charmed the pants off Nixon and won a ping-pong competition. That ain't retarded. Peter Sellers, "Being There." Infantile, yes. Retarded, no. You went full retard, man. Never go full retard. You don't buy that? Ask Sean Penn, 2001, "I Am Sam." Remember? Went full retard, went home empty handed...
Back in the day... We used to install points, condensor, distributor cap, etc., during a 'tune-up' for a car built before 1973 or so, when electronic ignitions became the norm. During that process we also used a 'timing light' to fine tune the spark, 'top-dead-center' & all that. One of the terms in grease-monkey parlance used back then when we were fiddling with the ignition timing was: 'Retard' the spark. Which was another way of saying: 'Dial it back'. This was done to adjust for smog, fuel economy, certain spark plugs, etc. In any event, there is NOTHING WRONG with using the term 'Retard' - even for people. It is Not 'offensive'. It simply means 'held back'. It is stunning to me how the twisting of words and meanings, combined with Full-'Retard' Marxism has so completely FUCKED UP the psyche of so many people in America - and the world for that matter. F'ing Sick...
Political correctness is CULTURAL MARXISM. I really despise Marxists.... Really. Including the ones we have in Congress, SCOTUS, and the White House.
They all are pretty retarded. For the record when I get home today I plan on getting a little retarded.
so the word [Gay] must also be really F'd.
" It is stunning to me how the twisting of words and meanings, combined with Full-'Retard' Marxism has so completely FUCKED UP the psyche of so many people in America - and the world for that matter. F'ing Sick..."
Language manipulation and control is a form of human and thought control.
That is why Orwell spent so much time and effort on it in his book 1984, and in other writings.
It is how the psychopaths both control the people, and gauge the success of their control efforts. And why I use every non-PC word and slur I can whenever I can.
The banksters need to repay us.
Drater TM
Retard spelled backwards
Dial. Happiness spelled backward.
ASS. Spelled backward; the reason why an epidemic of able-bodied people don't work anymore.
Leonardo Dicaprio played a booger eating retard in that one movie with Johnny Depp...climbed the towns watertower in a full on retard state of mind, had a big fat momma too, that one guy who played Cal Naughton Jr. in the Ricky Bobby racing film was in it as well.."Shake and Bake"....bought a franchise or something...Anyway, shortly thereafter, in his next film, Leo was longcocking some girl in the back of a classic car in the hold of the Titanic! Point being, a guy can go full retard and survive...Then he played an elf in LOTR I think...wait a minute, no, that was some other retard....
WOW. Speechless.
Tylers/zh,
Please see and understand why it serves nobody to use the word 'retard'. Consider the n word. What circumstances is n word ok to use? Now ask yourself how 'retard' is any different.
Cool, thanks.
the "n" word is useful to Read Huck Finn with...to rap and gangbang with...to sing frat songs with....and, depending on its useage, to assess the mental/moral evolution of your fellow man with.
when you get right down to it....Nigger is still a very useful word
Read Gilad Atzmon on the poison that is political correctness and identity politics BEFORE you come in here wagging your self righteous finger.
Nigger PLEASE!
And QUEEEEEEEEERR!!
Right, kick ass. Well, don't want to sound like a dick or nothin', but, ah... it says on your chart that you're fucked up. Ah, you talk like a fag, and your shit's all retarded. What I'd do, is just like... like... you know, like, you know what I mean, like...
Don't worry, scrote. There are plenty of 'tards out there living really kick-ass lives. My first wife was 'tarded. She's a pilot now.
Oh, plus one for Idiocracy quote.
Sometimes, homie just doesn't cut it. But I do kind of see your point. My brother in law is mentally retarded so I'm not indifferent to casual use of the term. My brother in law works 8 hours a day in a pet shop.
He's as productive as he can be. Which make him more efficient and intelligent than all members of congress and most presidents.
It's acceptable because there's never been such thing as a retard riot
What are they going to do? Spit their mashed potatoes at you?
Get a life
Lies - more lies - zzzzzzz
its not BS. those were new home sales. they were built in early 2014 and finally sold in Feb after discounts up to 30%.
The Northeast is now a barren wasteland of melting snow and MUD! There's lots of construction equipment and tractors stuck in fields up to their axles in mud.
Didn't you see all those guys up on the houses in the -20 degree weather pounding nails all winter? There were young families pulling their children through the snow on sleds just to see the new models flush with cash from living in the land of hope and change. Where are my Lew Rockwell paintings I need to revelle in them the joys of living in America!
lol you said Lew Rockwell. I see where you been reading Norman.
Just think about it, these pathetic liars, sit around spinning bullshit all day. They have a nice government salery, the best health care our tax dollars can buy, and a fat ass pension when they are what,....about 55 or so ? I picked the wrong line of work.....
Yep, me too. And to think all I'd have to do is sell my soul.... hmmm....
So what have we learned here today, boys and girls?
1. Good, high quality manufacturing jobs are pouring back into the United States.
2. Inflation is muted (excluding volatile food, energy and Obamacare prices).
3. Gas is cheap and goiing to get cheaper.
3. We are in a ripping recovery in new home sales, which means more good paying construction jobs are just around the corner (probably second half of the year, as usual).
4. The Fed is not going to unleash interest rate increases any time soon.
How are you not understanding this recovery is for real?
[In honor of MDB]
Thank you Dr. Krugman.
Paul Krugman: "You always go full retard."
OK No Debt, I had to give you a greenie for the In Honor of reference...I'm also gratified that everybody gets it, given the up vs down arrows, without the damn /sarc/ tag.
People are wising up to the overpriced housing scam worldwide looks like.
Builders are dumping inventory with the expectations of rising construction loans. I suspect that there is a comercial new home buyer market that hold housing so that it is not on the books of the builders that is also dumping and has 'fugded the numbers', in essence a new home can be sold twice, thus jacking the sold numbers.
sounds like it
sometimes ZH doesn't paint the whole picture
if you compare this report to january's you'll find
jan 2015 median price $294,300
feb 2015 median price $275,500
jan 2015 average price $348,300
feb 2015 average price $341,000
The bond market call BS on this - TNX and FVX haven't budged.
Shit that's a lot of igloos!
just for the record
a new home "sale" is booked when contract signed
but quite a stretch from wandering into a model home on a saturday morning - and having the 24 yr old blond hottie RE sales girl flirt with you till you sign - and closing on a mortgage weeks later
In the end, they will pay for their lies.
full corrupt is more like it.
The reality is setting in that our housing stock of foreclosed homes has been largely ruined by neglect. They don't last long in the Northeast without someone looking after them.
Plus, many occupied homes are slowly going to ruin, because homeowners (and landlords) can no longer afford to properly maintain them.
Unsold inventory will go to ruin too.
All of which is of course good for a system that thrives on waste and destruction.
You should write love notes to Paul "Freddy" Krugman. This one made him cream his little mangina.
you ain't kidding. we need a new roof and some serious work around the front door. the asshole builder never installed flashing. now there's rot. fucktard. I figure all this will cost around $15 grand.
we spend a fortune maintaining our house. I'll add it all up someday, but it's got to rival the annual payment we make toward the principle. At 5 or 6 grand annually, just to maintain it. never mind improve upon it.
Write a book about it. Or make a movie. Call it something catchy, like "The Money Pit."
Oh, sorry, that title's been taken.
wait I was told there was no supply...
MOAR GUBBAMINT LYING!!!!
Hey barry, you're a complete fucking asshole!!!
In a society where economic confidence is everything bs data is required in ever increasing amounts.
It's going to get a lot worse.
You're abbreviating a word with a letter because saying the abbreviation is okay but not the whole word even though everyone knows what word you're referring to. Do you realize how childish and simple minded that is? More importantely do you realize how orwellian that is?
The Chinese invasion included in this somehow?
Does every house being burned in Detroit count as a sale?
Yes
I have a sweet little 4-yo Downs boy. He doesn't speak, but has a vocabulary of several hundred words (text to picture relationships). He would never go this retarded. These people are liars whos assumption is economic data consumers are as stupid and unaware as they are, with the mainstream media having their backs. I expect an uproar that will cause a later revision, that will go unreported.
I can say without a doubt that the housing market in the DC burbs is full out 2006 full retard. Home prices moving up and homes moving quickly at retard prices. We have decided to postpone buying because of it. The RE market hasn't been this crazy in 8 years and I'm not buying at the top regardless of how shitty our current rental is.
Of Course. The Biggest growth industry in the world is the United States Government. Lots of leeches on that body, within a 6 hr drive of the Swamp on the Potomac.
So, I'm looking to purchase a place - when are prices expected to plunge?
Earth.
I hear housing is doing great in China as well, just remember its not an existing property if nobody has lived in it, its "brand new". Dolts all over the world.
In my state the number of people currently obtaining real estate licenses is unbelievable. Thousands in the past few months. I think my state has some of the most lax requirements to get a license in the country. Can you fog a mirror and dole out some cash up front? Here, go write some legally binding contracts for hundreds of thousands of dollars.
They're all ready to go out there and get rich. Happy 2006!!
Sunday night CBS nightly news with Scott Pelley ran a segment on the Northeast's struggling home sales.
It isn't home sales, it has to be refi's. I just got the call from my mortgage company that they are offering refis, nominally about .25% below the current low of 3.75%. I live in CT, and a number of vet friends and I have all been approached about the refinancing option for VA loans. I think that may be your culprit, otherwise this has red herring written all over it.
Illegals getting free homes.
Oddly enough, home sales are definitely picking up out here in the middle of nowhere. Of course, the buyers are all urban refugees who are just trying to beat the rush and people who no longer trust government statistics.
Real nice, smart people, in other words.
I never thought banks would lend so much money to illegals without jobs and income.
I suppose they'll be the first served when the commie government bails them out.
Illegals buying property on credit?
Get your money out of the banks right away!
I'm an illegal who just busted out of a Mexican prison.
Can I get a home loan, gringo?
Sure, it's on Obozo's tab.
The whole Full Retard is actually pretty offensive. Developmentally Challenged people (PC Iknow), actually have IQ's above zero. These idiots in the goverment have managed to do the impossible, reduce their own IQ's to a negative number.
If you are into drones check out this site http://pickyourdrone.com/
There's nothing whatsoever wrong with the economy.
The only problem we have is the idiots on Zero Hedge.
Too many illegal Russian immigrants getting home loans.
They deport well-educated, employed, productive Russian immigrants who have overstayed their visas.
It is the un-educated, unemployed, unproductive illegal immigrants from all origins that they want to keep.
housing market is fully valued, yes. housing will 'crash', not likely. the key difference this time around is there is very little neg-am interest only stated income or ninja loans out there. a very very significant part of the buying is done with CASH. I ask the local genius realtor where they get the cash and they think the buyer sold something 'up north'. the local wells home loan originator is telling me the new 'asset based products they have. where you get to take your $1million stock portfolio and they will count as 'income' a 20 yr amortization schedule on this acount. it doesnt get attached but they will let you claim an income from a portfolio....using principle.
then of course there is the $700Billion elephant in the room. Securities Based Lending....look it up. didnt exist prior to 2008, but of course Morgan and Goldman and Merril werent banks then. SEC only counts 'margin debt'.
On this go round, stock market 'corrects' by 30% real estate falls (no crash like before though) and those who thought they survived or even did well during this depression get the wringer....sell your stocks low to cover the $ you took out to buy all that real estate. and then interest rates go up. one will need to be quite nimble to get through this one...so just buy the indexes b/c active mgmtn doesnt work /s