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Out Of Tricks?
March 24 – Gold $1191.70 up $3.70 - Silver $16.97 up 9 cents
Out Of Tricks?
"I make my practices real hard because if a player is a quitter, I want him to quit in practice, not in a game." … Bear Bryant, legendary Alabama football coach
GO GATA!
It is totally understandable why followers of this commentary have become sick and tired of hearing about The Gold Cartel and the misery they have delivered. It has affected everyone in the gold/silver industry. Basically, investing in the gold/silver shares has been a waste of time and money for the last 17 years. If you had told me that when The Café opened for business in September of 1998, I would have said, "No Way!" … especially since gold went from below $300 back then to $1900+ and silver was below $4, and would rise to $49+.. The other day the XAU was lower than in September of 1998. To me it is more than mindboggling. There have been some really big winners along the way, but they have been dwarfed by the failures … and those failures have been run by some of the finest guys/gals I have ever met. This has been a nightmare.
That said, we were warned by one of the best of the best in our camp, the legendary Bob Bishop of the heralded Gold Mining Stock Report. Bob was the "gold man" in his day and a good friend to GATA. His wife also went to the same high school as me in Glen Ridge, New Jersey. When GATA held our third conference right outside of Washington, D.C., we had a last minute cancellation from one of our speakers. On the spur of the moment Bob agreed to make a presentation. In that presentation he said he was exiting from the gold/silver shares.
Golly, that was 7 years ago, soon to be to the day. I wish I had listened to THE MAN. I did not. So as not to make more Café readers run away. That is the bad news. The good news is that what we have coming in the shares will be one of the most historic market moves in history … and we all need to be there after this cacophony of dismal affairs these past years. Same drill: Newton’s Law about equal and opposite reactions. As bad as it has been, the better it will be in the years ahead. The shares will go bonkers as in a mania rarely ever seen before.
This is not a 'woe is us' story. Anyone who paid attention around 2000 has cleaned up with their bullion purchases … big time so … which means we have a lot of happy camper Café members, who will be even happier down the road.
OK, back to the day. Gold made it to $1195, while silver took out $17 to upside for a brief period of time. Enter Gold Cartel and that was all she wrote. What else is there to say? It is all about the bums and their "allowances"...
From MIDAS following the Fed’s surrender last Wednesday…
Today was somewhat abysmal in that we clearly saw how entrenched The Gold Cartel remains with their control over the precious metals prices. It is hard to remember a time when gold rallied $20 and that rally has me madder than before we got it. As the day wore on today, the euro, DOW and crude oil all made NEW daily highs by substantial margins, while gold was not allowed to do so. Actually, both made modest new highs later and then were nailed again … even as those outside markets mentioned kept on going.
That said, there is some serious daylight here in that the con job over the true state of the U.S. economy ought to be soon running its course. Even the Fed can’t "bull" their way around it anymore. Our economy is in big trouble after ALL the QE and money printing they have done … and they know it. This is a main reason why The Gold Cartel has gone all out to take gold and silver into the dumpster … to defuse the truth barometers.
Well, while THEY are still huffing and puffing, today brought us a lot closer to the day when this charade is going to end. That day shouldn’t be too far off. When The Tipping Point is finally reached, the precious metals are going to go bonkers and the bums won’t be able to do anything about it.
IF we are close to that point, we ought to get a rare follow-through tomorrow and gold should be knocking on its $1200 door by weekend.
To end on a POSITIVE note, gold is last at $1173, while silver is $16.05 ... which means they are back close to their highs of the day. That is constructive and suggests The Gold Cartel might really have their hands full for a change.
CRUD, I take that back. In the last 15 minutes, gold was taken down to $1167 and silver to $15.89. NOTHING has changed!
***
Well, something has changed in terms of upward price movement, controlled as it is.
Now for some fun. Obviously, we are thrilled to have Bob Bishop in our camp, big GATA supporter and superb thinker that he is. We are also extremely fortunate to have James McShirley with us. James was a featured speaker at GATA’s London conference in August of 2011. What a spectacular event that was!
James checked in today with some comments on the way the gold/silver world really is, in contrast to the mumbo jumbo garbage put out by the precious metals nincompoop pundits…
Lest we forget the 26th & 31st = cartel shenanigan days
Bill,
As always it is important to remember Thursday the 26th is option expiration day for April gold, with a week from today being first notice day. These two events have always been an opportunity for the cartel to impose iron lids anywhere near a big option number. Until this Comex charade is over blasting through $1200 seems remote. If gold does somehow defy its cartel masters it will be a very welcome development.
It seems silver has broken out above, and fell below $17 at least 50 times in the past week. This is SO unnatural, as typically even a couple consecutive breakouts above previous stiff resistance would get shorts covering in a hurry. The shorts in this instance aren’t worried in the least. Their agenda is capping and thwarting any and all breakouts rather than utilizing normal trading rules.
Note too how lumber went limit up this morning in a nanosecond on the rumor of China buying from a major Canadian mill. Lumber not only anticipated higher prices, but went limit up on a rumor. How quaint. Panicked shorts and mills pulling bids translate to higher prices in a hurry. This is how gold and silver should trade if there wasn’t a constant presence capping all rallies. We’ll never know how many gold rallies which were capped at 1% could have risen 5% or even 10% had price discovery been allowed. Some day price discovery will return with a vengeance, and +10% will be low volatility. Until then we wait for the lockdown to run its course.
JMc
What fun! Was thinking about James this morning re his commentary last week…
John paid a nice complement to James Mc and had a question for him…
Thanks for passing along. Give JB my best.
Regarding JB’s question regarding lumber: $270 must hold as a bottom or else it’s an elevator ride to hell. Canadian mills are still profitable here, yielding closer to $340 after factoring the Loonie/Dollar exchange rate. U.S. mills however are hemorrhaging badly. So far mills are only taking minor counters. Overproduction however is still evident. How quickly it gets cleaned up is the question. DC’s and wholesalers will be key if/when it does get cleaned up. Lumber is notorious for going on a tear out of nowhere and it wouldn’t take much to ignite a rip-roaring rally. FWIW I hedged our operation’s entire year here at these levels. Owning wood in the $270’s might look pretty good once hurricane season kicks off.
***
You don’t have to be a futures trader to "get" these markets, but surely the experience helps. As a former limit position trader at one point in my career, I know something about it all. It made my day this morning getting back to James about his lumber call and hedge bet. He came back with…
It tickled me to see lumber limit up as everybody and his brother-in-law was so hugely bearish. My lumber broker said his three dumbest traders who always lose money got short yesterday, and that’s when he knew limit up was right around the corner. Anybody shorting a 25 year low deserves to get lit up. Can’t wait for it to happen to the cartel.
JMc
The AM Fix was $1193.25. The PM Fix fell to $1191.50.
Oh my gosh … the gold open interest rose a steep 11,094 contracts to 447,773, which means the gold OI is as high as it has been in a long time. The silver open interest fell 1527 contracts to 174,123.
The ideal here would be for the specs to pour into the gold market, as the technicals are SO good, while the perennial mega silver shorts RUN FOR THE HILLS.
Bill Murphy
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this sums up why i went to "other" reserves. when i went to the gun store and offered on two different guns(fair value)a roll of 1 oz silvs and both sellers(consign) said fuck off i knew it was time to liquidate and that was at 30/oz. fuck it. making 33 percent on boats and motors and having fun...
if ya can't trade silver for a gun then you know it's gonna be a greater fool market when ya really need something of real value.
just sayin. eat your silver and shut the fuck up or wake the fuck up and eat your loss.
Why is this piece getting an avg "4" vote? Who says they're out of tricks? Not this essay...
"Well, while THEY are still huffing and puffing, today brought us a lot closer to the day when this charade is going to end. That day shouldn’t be too far off. When The Tipping Point is finally reached, the precious metals are going to go bonkers and the bums won’t be able to do anything about it."
That is repeated all the time, with a comment that the FED is out of bullets and cannot keep this up. But NO ONE ever lays out the logic of why it is immenent that Extend and Pretend is nearly done for. All we ever hear is some version of 'They can't keep it up for much longer'. I listen closely every time, and do not hear anything except "geometric logic".
"Now for some fun. Obviously, we are thrilled to have Bob Bishop in our camp, big GATA supporter and superb thinker that he is."
What does that mean? Is Bob, the guy who called it right 7 years ago, now calling for the imminent demise of those who control the gold market?? Than why doesn't the essay state that clearly? I'd love to hear a current quote (and may go looking for one in a minute) from prescient Bob.
"To end on a POSITIVE note, gold is last at $1173, while silver is $16.05 ... which means they are back close to their highs of the day. That is constructive and suggests The Gold Cartel might really have their hands full for a change.
CRUD, I take that back. In the last 15 minutes, gold was taken down to $1167 and silver to $15.89. NOTHING has changed!"
Right. 'Nuf said.
I would LOVE to believe that the manipulation music is about to stop. I would LOVE to re-open my brokerage account and go all in on the miners. And retire in abject wealth. But....
The writer is irrational and making up excuses/cartels for his bad investment.
Deception is the rule in this world, and the meek will not inherit it.
I've lost almost everything. I don't expect to ever recover.
I've learned that nobody can outlast the Fed's ability to panic the markets on demand, because if that doesn't work they click a mouse and give other criminals the money to panic it for them.
Its a corrupt government controlled "ponzi" world, and there is absolutely nothing we can do to make it honest ever again.
PS: I need another bookmarks folder to put anything related to metals or mines in, instead of calling it "Investment Sites", it would more aptly be called "Losers". Its not that I'd wish it to stay that way, it just "Is".
Still maintaining a 20% PM exposure (only 2% is wild ass small cap dogshit lottery tickets). This will end, but nobody knows when or how. All I know is that IF PMs do go up when this ends, they will move too soon and too fast for anybody to add or establish a position.
I don't even know if PMs are the way to protect or profit from an eventual market meltdown, but the fact that they are shunned, loathed, barely mentioned by mainstream pundits gives me hope. My best investment decisions always looked really really stupid before they moved.
Central Bankers are fucked. We all know that. How they will get fucked and when they will get fucked is anybodys guess, but I do believe that the longer it takes just means the eventual carnage will be more awesome.
But anybody who gives up and tries to pretend that the markets are still markets will regret it.
Same here, I never ever fail to top-tick gold/silver does not matter if the price was climbing for weeks or months after I buy it immidieatly drops by 10-20-30%, I've lost money on other things too but gold/silve is definitely my loss leader, but I learned my lesson haven't commited new funds to stocks in over 5 years.
I am still stacking physicall though, I am about break-even on that.
Try picking a level on spot Gold or a Mid-cap producer with a decent operating history and mines in US/Canada only. Try technicals and get a level(s) that are WAY below current levels. Have a fixed amount (2%?) and when/IF it gets there, close your eyes, pull the trigger and walk away. If the prices doesn't get to the target, walk away.
I have seen some very smart people, gifted brilliant investors, make some very bad calls because of emotions. It can happen to anybody, and it does happen to everybody at some point in their life. As you get older it happens less often.
Gold and silver have to be kept down at any cost by the banks, because they are anathema to the dollar. The metal is absolutely worth more than what it trades for. Paper contracts produce losses, but that gets covered by the printing press. It's the only way they can keep the price down. If you wanted to crash the dollar in one day, just pass a law that all metal contracts have to be settled by taking actual metal delivery. Metal stackers take heart: once the dollar starts to lose traction, there is no other place to be that will be as liquid as precious metal. They will exchange for any accepted currency. Once the general population finally catches on to this, they will not be able to get gold or silver. They will call, and they will hear, "sorry, we can't get it". For those that have been punished for years, holding the metal, congratulations! You have real money, and your day will come.
Its an education. It doesn't come cheap. My first try at contracting was an even loss. I was better at it the second time but then tried investing and lost again. Don't lose your soul and you'll be alright
There is only one way for the "loser" mentality (always buying at the high, selling at the low, only to watch the reverse happen) to make any sense at all.
Hundreds of thousands of shares, and/or millions of human beans must also be making that exact same decision, AT THE SAME TIME--- as the "loser"-- to have any effect on price.
One person, hundreds of shares, selling at the high, is not enough to change the trajectory of the price downward.
This brings up a kind of phenomenon that echoes the "mass mind" concept which asserts that there is an operating principle in the universe wherein hundreds of thousands, millions, billions of human beans are all doing the same thing at the same time.
When I have bought (sold) shares in a company thinking it will rise (or fall) but the exact opposite happens, I have made a decision that those with hundreds of thousands of shares have also made simultaneously.
Which is mind boggling when you examine it. What is the 'force', the dynamic, that is hitting everyone simultaneously that reach this losing choice??
I have no answer, but I do not I am far from alone in making that losing decision.
Great to see Bill Murphy guest posting here.
I'm so sick of hearing this kind of shit.
Good news I can use my shinies as collateral for a small business loan.
Gold and Silver have value the rest is bullshit. Fiat currency is backed by promises, from governments,bankers,politicians and the Fed. So how's their track record at keeping promises ? And historically how have the metals behaved ? It's justa matter of time and fiats time is running out. Don't despair Gold and Silver will get you there, sooner than later.
If you have any spare fiat laying aroung, I'd be more than happy to have you send it to me.
Deal?
Bill M -One of the few PM pundits I can still stomach.
If the cartels are ever broken and the central banks' power collapses, Bill will be one of the architects, if not one of the vanguard.
Look we will never ever win against the Central Banking Cartell, they have ruled the World for at least 300 years with a firm grip for over 100, and if they ever seem to be loosing control .. well then we get something like WW1 and WW2 .. so don't expect anything to happen or change soon, for if it did you'd better be prepared to eat your gold because everything else will be out of stock.
yeah Bill of the good fight
And this is not to deny what Bill says, It is to put it into perspective. Us "little folks" who have little ounces....who have lost jobs, salary increases, etc. Our little ounces of gold are not "happy camper" Bill. They are survival. One oz. at a time that needs to be sold at crap prices to make the game go round. So I love you Bill but FOAD. Happy campers?
"This is not a 'woe is us' story. Anyone who paid attention around 2000 has cleaned up with their bullion purchases … big time so … which means we have a lot of happy camper Café members, who will be even happier down the road."
Yep, I've heard just about enough from all of these people. If gold ever actually gets to do its thing, it won't be against a happy backdrop of rising Gold stocks. They are going to zero. The cabal-cunts will be buying up the assets at fractions of pennies on the dollar.
They are not ... And so are a few smart miners and players.
Love all these comments!
Gotta be buying when everyone's a hatin'.
Bill M seems a bit of a stretch to listen to, as well, but I agree you can stomach him.
Vanguard chart seems to follow the SPX weekly chart ==> …. see here. ==>http://www.bit.ly/1fMcakI
This is the future,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32026636
Get on the bran muffins and prune juice and shit yourself rich.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/psychoanalysis-money-heads-and-tails-mo...