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These Are 2015's "Black Swans" According To SocGen
For those who recall our summary of the most popular article of 2014, there was one common theme:" what readers founds most fascinating, and troubling, was the increasing preponderance of social disobedience, of covert, proxy or outright wars, and of civil unrest: all phenomena that accompany a world sliding deeper into distress, not as most central banks and their puppet media would have us believe, a global recovery."
It should therefore hardly come as a surprise that as SocGen attempts to quantify the biggest Black Swans risks (and hopes) of 2015 (yes, a foolish endeavor since nobody can actually envision what a black swan may be, by its very definition an event that was predicted by no one), it notes that "political and financial risks now outnumber real economy risks."
So what does SocGen believe are 2015's black swans?
Here are the "bad" ones, alongside their estimated probability of occurring:
- Ukraine crisis spills over to broader disruption (5%)
- Deflate-thy-neighbor, or systemic EM crisis (10%)
- Lower-than-expected price multipliers (15%)
- Sharp repricing of G4 term premiums (20%)
- UK election leads to Brexit vote (25%), Brexit (10%)
- China hard-landing (30%)
Here are the "unexpected" events that would lead to a favorable outcome (sadly, these never actually occur).
- Higher than expected price multipliers (15%)
- Euro area fast track reform and growth friendly fiscal policies (10%)
And visually:
But, then again, why bother with such trivial exercises, when as Paul Tudor Jones accurately laid out, how the current centrally-planed farce ends is simple - there are three outcomes: Revolution, War and Taxes.
Everything else is just a distraction.
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Don't forget the Shemitah.
5% chance of the situation in the Ukraine deteriorating?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/neoconservative-ideology-supports-us-financ...
Paul Craig Roberts and "The Saker" get to the bottom of the NeoCons plans for war with Russia. Plus PCR tells you exactly who runs the USA (mostly).
Time to dig a deep hole with a couple of years of food stuffed inside...
I am voting for a hard landing in China. Engineered by China itself.
How about these black swans:
1) Volcano blows in Indonesia plunging earth into a little ice age,
2) Ebola II explodes on the scene with 500,000 cases in 60 days,
3) Denmark drops depth charges on Soviet sub,
4) Kim Kardashian punches the lights out of Miley.
Or Kanye punches Kim's lights out
these "black" swans are actually only grey ones.
black swan will sneak and bite our asses before we can identify it.
Exactly. Isnt the whole point of black swans are that you cant see them coming?
The Black Swan will be the DIJA rising so fast it overcomes the Earth's gravitational pull and atmospheric resistance and lifts off into orbit on a trajectory for Jupiter.
deleted
"but rather a plutocracy run by a small elite which some call “the 1%”. "
A plutocracy is run from within for the benefit of some elite within the borders. The DC US is really a Zionocracy. That is, it is run from without for the benefit of some elites overseas.
And for those so inclined, if the outside elites were all Irish, I'd be calling it a "clanocracy."
The banksters need to repay us.
Livestock. Mangers. Owners.
People. Government. Zionists.
I have always read PCR with a grain of salt because of his past involvement with the empire. "Controlled opposition?"
Then I read this statement from him:
The last three Federal Reserve chairmen have been Jews, and the current vice chairman is the former head of the Israeli central bank. Jews are prominent in the financial sector, for example, Goldman Sachs. In recent years, the US Treasury Secretaries and heads of the financial regulatory agencies have mainly been the bank executives responsible for the fraud and excessive debt leverage that set off the last financial crisis.
To my knowledge controlled opposition never, ever, uses the word "Jew." So either the controlled opposition minders are getting desperate, or PCR is really "off the reservation."
He may want to check his brakes, or start taking the bus.
The banksters need to repay us.
It's not my fault that Zionism employees so many Jews.
Nah. At some point in his career, he probably chose to to the "moral thing" in the face of political opposition and was threatened with a janitorial position in Nebraska.
You can see just how bitter the guy is from his laughing through gritted teeth after every other answer he gives. To be fair I don't blame him. Watching politics and having (even an inkling) of how economies function is like staring into Nietsche's abyss. At some point you just have an existential crisis and realize that no matter HOW smart and HOW reasonable your ideas are, 65% of the population are either too moronic, ignorant, or self-involved to even appreciate them. 80% Of the remainder is just out to feather their nests..
If you're in that lonely 7% that is "not a moron/self-involved/ignorant and bound by ethics" you end up becoming bitter and jaded as hopelessness sets in. PCR strikes me as that type.
For some reason "H/wood is run by Jews" Mel Gibson comes to mind.
Where is that Braveheart Patriot these days anyways?
"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize”
Attributed to Voltaire
The banksters need to repay us.
The Holocaust did NOT happen. Now I'm a felon in at least 7 nations.
You're an idiot the world over, Bob.
Yup. Ending September 13, 2015.
They seem to have missed massive bank runs?
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
No need of blacks swans.Just an old fashioned recession, within the depression we are in.
The govt. has put so much lipstick on this pig it looks like a kardasian, and they've started believing
their own lies.
Q1 earning are going to be absolutely pitiful, and the sow will berevealed in all her true ugliness.
Good point, but can't "profit" be largely what the company wants it to be?
Profit yes, but cashflows are much harder to disguise.
Even the Fed cant bail them all out.
Good big picture thinking:
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts Interview w/ The Saker
http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=340563
nice, good link.
A black swan is "an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences." So I don't think socgen can say, this is a black swan.
The identification of a black swan negates its existence.
Actual identification of a black swan is a black swan
Cool HoHum, can we try that with banksters?
Kinda like looking at a photon.
They didn't read the book.
Always a crisis...If i here or see the word "crisis" on more fucking time...
Why is it that only BLACK swans are bad
Good point. Sounds RAYCISS
Same reason Angel's Food cake is white and Devil's Food cake is black.
Because they're associated with dark, dangerous times.
BTW what is a Black Swan before he grows up, and why isn't he "handled" before he grows up?
And what happens when 2 black swans mate? Do you gate a gaggle or a murder of black swans?
And if it mates with a white swan, do you get mulatto swans?
Not all Black Swan events are bad.
The accidental discovery of antibiotics at the end of WWII was a Black Swan event.
In the early 1800s Edward Jenner accidentally discovered that Cowpox vaccine could prevent Smallpox. That was a Black Swan event.
The Great Plague in London, which started in 1665, was ended by the Great Fire of London in 1666. A very fortuitous Black Swan event.
hear and one...there, fixed it myself- retards
What about:
Central Bank Ponzi Scheme Becomes Mainstream
Paper Markets default
Derivatiives explosion and counterparty cascades to crash fiat currency system
Aliens land
WHITE Swans SocGen neglected to mention:
cure for cancer (et al), robots/productivity/PE expansion,
biofab/3D, cold fusion, cogen/regen/renew fuel sources,
battery breakthrough, AI generally...need i go on?
A cure for cancer would be awful for pension liabilities.
On another note, Russia is gearing up for another proxy war by loaning Argentina fighter jets to try and "take back" the Falklands...
What's Russian for Exocet?
What's British for General Belgrano?
Yakhont
Cure for excessive ear hair and crankiness in older white men...
What about a cure for excessive nose hair, you little $h!t.
Derivatives? Think maybe they missed that one.
That's because that is the one event that no one believes is going to happen.
That makes the collapse of derivatives a true Black Swan event.
My definition of these events is "gray" swans.
Ahh but, who needs a black swan? Stretch a rubber band to its last possible extension, and even a fly will take it down ....
Take a look at the shocks that have occurred in the last 40 years...they didn't take down the system because the system was strong enuf to handle it....vs. today. The system looks like a drunk that was rolled in an alleyway, with extreme predjudice.
By denfinition, if you see them coming they are not true Black Swans.
Looks remarkably like 2014's list, and 2013, 2012......
lower than expected p/e multiples is a "black swan EVENT" ??? the term black swan is in a bubble, along with the word bubble.
also the wsj had a hilarious article about how last week's 'volatility' had so much "verve". they are wound sooo tight out there.
If Nassim Taleb is seeing this right now, potential "Black Swan" events plotted across his intensely hated bell curve, he would have a heart attack. There is so much wrong with SocGen's "analysis" that it begs the question of where to starrt. This report corroborates all three major points ot the "forecasting fallacy" that Taleb explains in the book.
As variable matters (1) greatly, the accuracy in the forecast matters more than the forecast itself. The policies we decide on should depend more on the range of possible outcomes rather than the final number of outcomes themselves. This report completely fails to account for forecast degredation as the projected period lengthens (2). And they are misunderstanding the random character of the variables themselves (3), because how on earth can we "measure" them accurately enough to assign percentages to their occurence? How can we know if it is too optimistic or pessimistic?
Thank you, it's good to see a comment from a poster that grasps the concept of a Black Swan.
No Grexit? Or is that already priced in?
Real black swans:
9.4+ earthquake N Cal coast triple junction, messes with closed Huboldt Bay nuke plant - closed, but old nuke shit still stored there.
A small, dirty, suitcade nuke exploded anywhere in US = even if in middle of desert, much less any city.
Huricane in Atlantic that takes out South Florida east coast.
An F-5 through Oklahoma City.
All possible and totally within the realm of probablility, all totally unpredictable...
Make up your own list - it's FUN!!
Stay puft marshmallow man
Dubya ("W") or Cheney as JEB's running mates.
Michele Obama running for POTUS. If she ran with Billary, the question is: Which one is the Black Swan, or is the pair a Black Swan?
no ussa black swans.
get real
Peak Black Swans?
The most black swans since Lehman.
Nuke event? Seems that clock started ticking again.
Mahoney,
I place the greatest emphasis on this. We are hated around the world, we practice evil, we have a muslim president and cabinet holders. What's not to nuke?
We try to play checkers, while Putin plays chess. When the pieces are all in place......
The Soviet Defense Minister came out a month ago and said that a first strike was survivable. No longer MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction), but in reality, we are all MAD.
What's not to Nuke?
The space defense technology developed by the Keshe Foundation using magnetic and gravitational force fields (Magravs) has proved to be the best method for blocking magnetic field communication systems at any frequency.
The system is capable of jamming all communication lines and when used correctly can directly block all communication in a large area even from a distance.
This means that with a minimum effort all satellite communications can be blocked.
edit: "To how this US aircraft carrier was “disabled” by the Northern Fleet’s attack submarines, this report says, was due to the Federations successful implementation of “magrav technology” weapons which had previously been used against American warships in the Black Sea, and had “disabled” them too"
When this system is used effectively by forces that are active in a certain area, the opposite side cannot send information to its destined receiver.
The recent US decree proves their concern about how advanced the technology is and shows that the opposite side is being prevented from carrying out its operations.
Thus there is more to this decree than is seen at first glance.
In reality it shows that the US does not have any system that can overcome such a powerful and advanced technology, and by means of the decree they are trying to outlaw new technologies so that they have an excuse to label organizations like the Keshe Foundation as a rogue organization.
We are open, we stay open and we invite US scientists to join us so that we can use this technology effectively for the protection of craft in deep space.
This technology was developed by the Keshe Foundation, as described in our patent applications, so that in deep space crafts can be protected from any high level magnetic field radiation zones that are detected, and the systems and passengers can be safe when the crafts are traveling through them.
One of the uses of this new technology is to block any magnetic field carrying information throughout a large target area in space. This is how the Drum was captured, as it was blocked from receiving information from its control satellites during the procedure.
In a word, “Welcome to the real space technology,” and to seeing it working in real life on a large scale.
Our technology is on offer to the US government also, if they are prepared to accept that Iranian nuclear physicists are not necessarily betraying their nation if they share space technology with them.
We are here to bring about world peace so that mankind will be ready to join the universal community.
If sharing technology between friendly nations like Iran and the US is a criminal act then man of today has sunk lower than in the days of the cavemen.
We have invited NASA to explain their UFO technology and we are ready to do the same and explain our Magravs system to them.
https://jhaines6.wordpress.com/2012/09/07/us-presidential-decree-and-kes...
The real black-swan lies with the banksters' victims, the people.
If they wake up and just resort to "quit paying" the jig is up.
Guillotines are the other.
The banksters need to repay us.
The most powerful weapon the American people have is Rejection.
The system of fraud and theft that has been built up upon the backs of the American people is dependent upon our backs. Withdraw our backs, and the whole scheme collapses. This is our greatest weapon.
Stop Paying--Put it into food, and precious metals, etc. They stole whatever "debt money" they loaned you in the first place (fractional reserve banking) and soon you won't be able to pay them anyways, so Stop Paying.
Stop Playing--Stop being a tool for them to use, mock, and call "stupid." Stop Playing.
Stop Obeying--If they are in violation of the Constitution then they are not legitimate anyways, so Stop Obeying their unlawful dictates.
The Four Rs
Rejection: Stop Paying. Stop Playing. Stop Obeying.
Revolution: It is inevitable, so prepare, as they are.
Retribution: The guilty must answer for their crimes against the American people and the Constitution. No “truth and reconciliation,” but “trial and Retribution.”
Restoration: Restore the American people, country and Constitutional republic.
Amazingly, a so-called "American President" provided what may have been the clearest, most concise formulation for this, namely...
JUST SAY NO.
Yes, he was talking about drugs (or something), but JUST SAY NO is precisely what everyone needs to say to the predators-that-be, the predators-DBA-government, the predators-DBA-corporations, the predators-DBA-centralbanks... and all other human predators.
JUST SAY NO.
Then follow through. Pay no taxes. Obey no laws. Kill all paid-thug predator hit-men who attempt to force your obedience, force you to pay protection money, force you to acknowledge any form of legitimacy or authority over you or anyone else.
Yeah great but are these the unanticipated unknowns?
Seal, maybe you need to read a little closer.
Tyler made it clear upfront that the black swan was going to be used as a metaphor or device different from its meaning. Tyler knew he was going to misrepresent the term black swan to get a point across, and threw out this jewel of a disclaimer:
"yes, a foolish endeavor since nobody can actually envision what a black swan may be, by its very definition an event that was predicted by no one"
In the past, I have bashed Tyler for similar things, but this time they certainly deserve props.
Kudos Tyler(s), well done...
Beautiful bird. I hope it comes to visit soon.
SNAP DEPRESSION occuring as we read this nonsense. No one knows what the black swan will be but the moons have aligned. China in freefall, BRICs almost, Japan is headed to the mortuary, Europe close behind. US is broke, just won't fess up.
The big factor: In developed economies, most people in 40's, 50's and on know they are SCREWED. Central Banks can't fix it. Retirement reality has set in.
Demand is dropping like a rock. Nothing anyone can do about it.
SNAP DEPRESSION in next 6 months.
.
The following instructive but hidden histories might become apparent:
"Stop whoring for Wall Street"
http://www.showrealhist.com/yTRIAL.html
http://patrick.net/?p=1223928
What color is deserved truth?
We're going to see them all hit, and a whole lot more. 2015 is the year it hits the fan.