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Contango Tumbles To 2-Month Lows As WTI Crude Melts Up Above $49

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Fifth ramp in 5 days takes WTI crude back above $49 for the first time in 2 weeks... on the heels of record production, record streak of inventory builds, and record inventory at Cushing. The 1Y spread has compressed to 2-month lows...

 

WTI melts up...

 

Contango at 2-month lows...

 

as the whole curve flattens...

 

 

Charts: Nanex and Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:00 | 5926092 symtex411
symtex411's picture

bull trap in the making?

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:03 | 5926110 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

What the fuck is up with those volume graphs? I don't follow the oil market but those daily volume graphs look really weird.

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:07 | 5926131 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Bull something..... I can hardly wait to see whose holding this crap.......

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:11 | 5926138 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Big time... Treasury yields are creeping a little higher, and the usdx is over sold on the 5hr chart. Ifully expect some $usd strengthening over the next 48 hours in front of the final q4 gdp print Friday.

 Don't forget Mr. Yellen is scheduled to speak 15minutes before the N.Y. equity close Friday.

 12:45       USD         Fed Chair Yellen Speaks   3:45 p.m. N.Y. time

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:33 | 5926242 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Saudis moving forces to Yemen border.  Iranian backed rebels in Yemen on the move..

More reprecussions from Obammie foreign policy.

 

 As late as 2010, things were going so well in Iraq that Obama and Biden were bragging. Now, after Obama’s politically-motivated pullout and disengagement, the whole thing’s fallen apart. This is near-criminal neglect and incompetence, and an awful lot of people will pay a steep price for the Obama Administration’s fecklessness.

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:59 | 5926322 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Those are definitely some important axioms to factor in.(relative to oil price spikes) Unfortunately, I think the glut is so wide spread, it's not likely to have any major impact over the short term.

 Here's an interesting scenario. How well protected are all those rented contango tankers, (full of crude) sitting outside of major ports? What happens if some terrorists decide to blow a couple of those tankers up?

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:59 | 5926344 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

"...if some terrorists decide to blow a couple of those tankers up"

i assume you are referring to banker paid militia so banks holding that oil can collect the insurance?

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:15 | 5926173 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

All hands on deck from the PPT.  Imagine the Dow with crude down a couple bucks today.  We can't have the sacred Dow down over a few hundred points . . . . . EVER!!!  

Charts telling me it should resume the downtrend in a big way especially if yet again it can't get over that 10 week with some pop and sizzle.  The Fed always zeroes in on "things too important for momo and fairy tales" as it has all along with AAPL, AMZN, and many others.  

SCO holding higher than the previous unicorn counter-trend move (I know, I know spare me the lecture on ETFs just an observation).  

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:00 | 5926093 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

efficient market theory...

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:05 | 5926106 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Record demand for refined product?  When you only look at one part of the picture you should expect to be confused.  As storage fills, imports will fall and demand for US oil willl rise thus causing the gap between WTI and Brent to narrow.  That is most likely what the market is expecting.  The storage at Cushing could be consumed in three days if the pipelines supported that but they don't.  In any case, Cactus is coming online in a couple of weeks and that means 250,000 bbl/day less input to Cushing.

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:10 | 5926146 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Tsk, there you go ignoring the smartest people in the room when all they wanna do is rape and pillage the country.....

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:02 | 5926107 aliki
aliki's picture

i was gonna comment on this topic but did anyone just catch the guy from tuttle tactical management on CNBC? he said this bull market will eventually end but not today. mandy asked him whats going to be the cause. he said "when the fed leaves the market, that will be the end of the bull". they immediately cut off his interview to go to a "market flash" or some shit.

lol. can't have someone telling the truth - can only imagine what the producers were saying to the anchors "get this guy off the fucking air ... don't u realize we have a HOPIUM narrative based on FUNNY-mentals to promote!!!"

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:26 | 5926220 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

CNBC hasn't yet learned that they get moar viewers when stocks crash. 

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:02 | 5926108 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I wonder when I should buy my puts for June expiration?  How long can this idiot ramp possibly last?

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:12 | 5926157 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I'd be careful about oil since this looks to be set up for maximum pain for somebody.....

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:46 | 5926304 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

We 'melted' some folks

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 15:29 | 5926463 venturen
venturen's picture

markets crash in Oct!

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:05 | 5926121 katchum
katchum's picture

Wait till we get into backwardation, oil will be at 60$.

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:06 | 5926125 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Is this HFTs scalping industry? Maybe a round of unfortunate accidents in the next couple months at the HFT firms?

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:08 | 5926140 uncle_vito
uncle_vito's picture

Quit trying to figure the direction of oil.   It is going to go up just because it has gone down.

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:10 | 5926150 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

I guess the Bankers do owe us

 

Will China Pay the $1 trillion it Owes Americans?

http://www.newenglishreview.org/blog_direct_link.cfm/blog_id/42080

 

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:18 | 5926184 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i need about three fiddy [/the damn loch ness monster]

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:47 | 5926305 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Buzz,  I wonder if we can give the Incubus aka Mr.Yellen about $Three Fiddy to dry up and die?

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:26 | 5926222 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Because US production may peak by the end of April (up this week 0.032% according to the WAG of EIA), is it really such a surprise that May's futures are up?

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:31 | 5926246 The Shape
The Shape's picture

Production has peaked. The EIA's algo driven production estimates are nonsense.

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 15:14 | 5926410 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

i saw the eia's sept production numbers for canada, which looked completely made up, and then the revised numbers in the oct edition, which looked even less believable.  what makes you also think the eia is lying through their teeth?

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 16:00 | 5926575 The Shape
The Shape's picture

I'd say check out their production numbers in January for North Dakota and some of the numbers out of Texas. According to those states it was falling in January, yet the EIA's numbers had production increasing. The EIA numbers are an estimate using an algo.

Given the Tylers' committment to truth, justice and algo busting, I would have thought they'd be all over it.

More bucks in clickbait these days it seems.

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:38 | 5926264 In.Sip.ient
In.Sip.ient's picture

Another "so what" moment...

Whatever production happens to be

means nothing without corresponding "consumption"

figures.

 

Any bets, when you put those two together you get

a WTF moment... and prices rise...

 

!

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:41 | 5926278 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

How's that $20 call from Goldman working out for the lemmings?

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:43 | 5926288 Goldbugger
Goldbugger's picture

Nothing but a bunch of BULL.

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:43 | 5926290 henry chucho
henry chucho's picture

Your Contongo may be tumbling,but my Puntango sure is pumping.

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 14:51 | 5926317 silver_stacker
silver_stacker's picture

Since the PPT appear to have lost control of stawks today, TPTB will manipulate whatever else they can...like crude and U.S. 10 year treasuries both up...

Wed, 03/25/2015 - 15:52 | 5926532 Condition 1SQ
Condition 1SQ's picture

Oh for crying out loud .. "melt up".  At what point, if ever, will ZH go bullish on, say, crude?  When WTI hits $1?

Thu, 03/26/2015 - 00:32 | 5928181 kiwimail
kiwimail's picture

Saudi Arabia now bombing Yemen, which was "cleared with the US" which means a lot of people in DC would have known what was coming a few hours before it happened. And you wonder why the suden Jump???

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