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Durable Goods Orders Drop And Miss In Worst Run Since Lehman
For the 3rd of the last 4 months, Durable Goods Orders fell and missed expectations (the worst run since Lehman). A 1.4% drop (against expectations of a 0.2% rise) is made worse by downward revisions of the last month's modest bounce. Across the board the numbers are a disaster - Ex-Trans fell 0.4%, Ex-defense fell 1%, Capital Goods Shipments fell 1.4% with capital goods ex-air dropping a stunning 7.6% YoY. Paging negative Q1 GDP print expectations...
- *U.S. FEBRUARY DURABLES ORDERS FALL 1.4%; EX-TRANS. DROP 0.4% (both big misses)
- *FEB. NON-DEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS EX-AIRCRAFT DROP 1.4% (big miss)
- *JANUARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS RISE 2%, REVISED FROM 2.8% GAIN (major downward revision)
- *U.S. FEBRUARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-DEFENSE DECREASE 1% (big miss)
- *DURABLE GOODS INVENTORIES IN U.S. INCREASED 0.3% IN FEBRUARY
New orders fell for Computer products, fabricated metals, machinery, transportation, motor vehicle, and a dramatic plunge in non-defense aircraft new orders and even larger (33.1%) collapse in defense aircraft orders.
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Just one thing... the "Field of Dreams" economy continues with motor vehicle inventories up 9.7% YoY... a sustained inventory build did not end well last time...
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Here is the slowmotion reversion of the US back to yet another recession, unless QE4 comes in in the last moment, as usual, and prevents the long overdue business cycle from re=emerging: the annual increase in Durables went form 4.7% to 0.6%. Next month we go negative.
The trend in Durables ex-Transports is just as bad:
Finally, who could have possibly imagined that with oil "half off" (still, with the China hard landing now raging), CapEx would be on the verge of going negative.
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"markets" typically peak during the quarter in which recessions begin. no different this time.
Since Lehman
I keep hearing that.....must be the new catch phrase.
no different this time
Secret Pinky swear it?
i know...a few days ago i suggested we time stamp it with other events of that time....like, since o.j. went to jail.....
"and even larger (33.1%) collapse in defense aircraft orders" -- it's time for some more wars!
Note the HUGE run up in inventory prior to the last presidential election in 2012. helped get that important unemployment "rate" under 8%
YES. Great observation. That blatant 'manipulation' of a market for purely Political Purposes should have brought the nation to a stand still, followed by subpoena's, trials and outsized sentences. Instead...? That event right there told anyone with a firing synapse that the United States government was Corrupt to the core and irreparably harmed. My 'awakening' was Waco, Texas, incidentally. In other words, if a sufficient number of the body politic has not 'awakened' already, this chapter in the history of the U.S. is already 'in the can' - most simply do not realize it yet.
Grandpa...What is a market? Do you remember a time when stocks traded on....what did they call it...Oh ya Fundmentals? Did stocks use to go up and down? That must have been scary. Is it true people were allowed to trade stocks back then...before FED-Citidal decided to just trade with itself? What was that like? Were share prices really only 2 digits...I mean they are now 20 digits long....
Wow! What is the "Since Lehman" scorecard tally and what is the PRIZE? QE4?
Prize is a plank walk off a tall ship with an anchor tied to your foot, this is why we hear so much about it, but nobody really wants to jump.
it's the "worst since Lehman drinking game"....and I'm gassed
Mar 24, 2015
Texas has seen about a dozen energy companies file for bankruptcy protection in the last few months— half in the Houston region — and they are beginning to occur with more frequency.
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/blog/drilling-down/2015/03/spoiler-al...
Time to go to AA!!! We need a new reference,,,,, worst since CBC (Central Bankers Crash of 2015).
Fucking snow.....always an easy blame.....move on....BTFATH
Every day I get up and read a "Worst Since Lehman" Headline here on ZH, only to see instant run to record high the same day. Nothing to see here, as usual...time for me to move along to other breaking news. Does Bruce Jenner have a vagina?
5 ships sailed for the new world today, were you on one?
I hope (s)he keeps the same name.
Good question. Let's ask one of the Algos that run capital markets.
So what? There is no market that allows for true price discovery now....
Welcome to the "everybody gets a trophy" world where all animals are created equal, it's just that some animals are "more equal" than others...
In fantasy land they are equal, in the real world, not so much.
Something is not right!.......................here
BUT BUT BUT the BLS said yesterday that housing sales was thru the roof....what houses with no stoves or refriges? Buyers must be taking taxis to their new empty homes.
Limos maybe?
Delaying rate hike will no longer keep the market on an upward climb. Only QE can achieve that. To get QE, we will need a sell-off. Going to happen this spring/summer. Position yourself accordingly
Bold call. Sorry, I don't think it will happen. Blatant buying of equities by The Fed that will not stop anytime soon. They own the majority of the treasury/bond "market" and with another Presidential election coming up they have the perfect cover/collaboration to keep buying everything. IMO the last real elected politician that was looking out for the good of the people was JFK. This is and always has been about oligarchs maintaining power and control of real resources, including the human kind.
Interesting times.
Don't wait till May to sell and go away or into hiding whichever seems more prudent.
Since Lehman TM
Got times and dates?
Somebody must have registered that by now.
I'm waiting for, We since Lehman'd some folks. Jumped the shark much...
I suggest a new caledar system. We are now in the year 7SL.
A clear case of negative momentum.
Youngbloods in search of another high.
Durable goods....aside from all of our other maladies, is there any motivation to create anything durable given we are a consumption economy. I mean really.....does any manufacturer want to build things that actually last? This has been the single biggest contribution of tech, the creation of product that is outdated and obsolete the day yo buy it.
It was required by law that everything have at least one weak link, you know, to keep the economy at full tilt.
Actually I'd argue that due to sustainability issues the government would prefer that we all make and use durable goods that we must use and that we will be taxed on a "per-use" basis....
IMO this is the direction we are heading, think about it, things like "carbon taxes". Everyone has to metabolize sugars (reduced carbon) to breath/live (producing CO2).
Business is our government's primary source of tax collection. They are forced to withhold and forward payroll taxes as well as collect sales taxes. They are also a significant tax base where government can apply arbitrary taxation and businesses will always pass those costs on to their customers. Any attempt to tax usage is far too much trouble for them when they can simply push costs into a compliant business class. We will see more pressure for a VAT as it can be fully integrated into the sales price with no line item identification for consumers to push back against. I contend that the primary purpose of income tax is less about revenues than it is about coercion, seeking specific behaviors.
Not to mention that while government will seek to stimulate a consumption economy through debt, this excessive debt provides cover for their own incredible debts. The banking and financial industry is absolutely essential for THEIR survival....not ours.
" Any attempt to tax usage is far too much trouble for them" -- Not entirely, just about everyone lives in a house or apartment that is plugged into the electrical grid.
But, as history always demonstrates, that which cannot be sustained, won't be. IMO humans have been devolving for quite some time now. The government liabilities are real, they will need to be dealt with and will be until they simply cannot be...
"IMO humans have been devolving for quite some time now"
ancient Greeks had the same theory about human devolution. see http://ancienthistory.about.com/cs/grecoromanmyth1/a/hesiodagesofman.htm
a Golden Age followed by an Silver Age followed by a Bronze Age followed by an Heroic Age followed by an Iron Age, and we'd be in the last one
archeological evidence gives some reasoning behind it: by settling down and cultivating as early farmers, people started to be less then perfectly nourished, and became smaller
so whenever they found older graves, they marveled at the (modern) huge size of those corpses, and postulated that people were better, in earlier times
so yes, ZH would have flourished too, three or four millennia ago: malnourishment, overpopulation, farmers claiming the land as proprietary. even mortgages, in the form of huge stones with inscriptions on the fields. and a claim that mighty Zeus might soon kill all the humans because of their wickedness
from an archeologist point of view, people change very little in their belief or behaviour structures, only what they leave behind changes, slowly, in it's artistic value
If businesses are forced to hide a VAT tax, I'd like to see them institute an across the board discount on all items that equals the VAT tax, so it will show up on the sales receipt. Of course, I guess government would then outlaw all discounts, so that the sheeple cannot see the gubmint skim that takes place on a daily basis.
I expect the items I purchase to last and even demand it. Of course this means that I have to buy vintage items and clean them up. I avoid a great deal of sales rape, er, I mean tax in the bargain.
Negative data? Obviously bullish for the HFT algos...
http://olduvai.ca
Must be the weather...except for new home sales.... But its the weather...
LECTURE
Economy = Output, real assets
Finance = Claims on output, claims on real assets
Conclusion:
Unless multiple claims on real assets are demolished, economy will continue to worsen
END OF LECTURE
Very succinct post. +1
Despite being a banking troll, yes, this is the ultimate question. when will all those paper claims on real goods and services actually start seeking them out? because should they, boom motherfuckers!
Or your government can claim it too.
Orwell and Kafka Do America:
How the Government Steals Your Money--"Legally," Of Course
By Charles Hugh Smith
Be glad you live in a fake democracy with a fake rule of law, a fake judiciary, and a government of thugs with the officially sanctioned right to steal your money and possessions without any due process or court proceedings. Continue
Have you noticed the use of foul language also goes as the nation and its economy goes? When women speak like men and worse, then you know you have digressed both as a society and a nation driven without any moral compass, for women are the last to go. Thank you for the reminder.
It is what it is...
The entire world today, in this particular moment in time, runs on oil and faith, period.
But hey, I am one of those people who can actually do math.
Only two constants in life; 1) change 2) that which cannot be sustained, won't be...
hedge accordingly, (it's all you can do anyway).
Lecture:
The end:
Test tomorrow and the answers are posted on my blog page; so everyone gets a free pass so mommy & if you have a daddy know there money is being well spent.
"FEB. NON-DEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS EX-AIRCRAFT DROP 1.4% (big miss)"
don't have many canaries, but this is one of the key ones
not only big miss, but big downward revision to january ... +0.6% ---> -0.1%
core capital goods orders have fallen SIX MONTHS IN A ROW
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEWORDER
Just more evidence that yields on government debt must continue downward...
They will as many markets are offering negative yield in order to drive, on final time, toward the US bond market before it implodes. Many are saying 3rd qtr of 2015 and those are not the same voices that say that every year. Personally; I say that Japan and Europe fall first, the US becomes the temporary safer haven, then falls the hardest...might make it well into 2016. When the DOW hits 18,750 sometime in July-August, then that will be the time to either enter into short indices or get completely out and convert it into metal of all sorts.
That is an interesting chart that I have never seen before; like to see that overlay on the DOW and/or S&P...calling Tyler!!
Real bad news; well that means the market will soar today at least .75-1.25%....1 minute till blast off.
Looks like a real slow start; must have been a US made rocket (do we make them) or they used the wrong algorithm...don't worry they will get the fix in by the end of the day...look at those early volumes battling each other. It is the last 10 minutes, literally, 3:50-4pm that count for the market.
Looks like a real recovery has taken place relative to 2008-2009, but just can't seem to get good traction...oh that is right they went back and revised the numbers.
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BTW-at Walmart and Kroger; the flexible plastic straws are 20% shorter - no kidding! Now that is the official sign of true inflationary pressure about to unload.
by recovery you mean the FED giving unlimited Zero rate money to the criminal wall street banks and printing $5 Trillion Dollars...and Obama running a $1 Trillion Deficits? Running 30%-50% deficits EVERY YEAR isn't a recovery! Is that like my lifestyle is better now that I don't payoff my credit cars...I just get new ones I can't pay off?
What would happen if all those who have credit ratings above 750 went and applied for 5-7 new credit cards from various banks at the same time, then went and spent all that on hard assets, then gave those away to a shell charity (a progressive one to make sure it doesn't raise IRS flags), then declare bankruptcy.
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I believe that could euthanize a few banks permanently.
can't they just buy them back and park them in the desert next to those planes....heck stock buybacks work....buying your own product and throwing them away has to work better...perfect the fraud!
Since 1971 when Nixon took the u.s off the gold system the economy has been in slow motion descent. In forty years we went from a thriving economic power and creditor to a whimpering, part time service economy and debtor nation. Where we used to strive to conquer space we no strive to conquer people. Where we once were the land of opportunity with jobs and entrepreneurs galore, we are now the largest welfare state in the world. Where americans were once proud and independent, we are now shamelessly pathetic and depend on government and the FED for our very survival. Where we had the highest level of education for the lowest cost we now have the lowest level of education at the highest cost. Where other nations used to look at us with envy they now hate our very name and shake in loathing when they see our flag. Where we used to be family oriented we now have three bathrooms for wannabe women and wannabee men. Where our children were raised and nurtured by their mothers these days they're raised by part time, minimum wage, government approved and certified care centers. Where our government used to mind it's own business it now interferes with every aspect of our lives. Where the FED's mandates was maintaining the viability and value of their money it's now purchasing bonds and stocks for illusion sakes. Where the dollar was value and prized it is now used as a weapon for any nation that disputes its supremacy with nations dumping it as fast as they can.
I could go on for several paragraphs with these then and now comparisons but in these enlightened days of digital this and digital that, americans are so entranced with all their cheap ithingies that family, country and God are now laughed and scoffed at, with all three being outdated at best and offensive at worst.
And all from removing the symbol of strength, value and beauty from our money and cheapening it with debt, fraud and ugliness. Apparently,,, As goes the money, so goes the nation.
it is bad when you are wishing for the late 60's 70's
Remember the psychopaths think in generational terms; so removing the gold standard was to put into the minds that gold was foolish and that has been the narrative all along the way till today. Therefore now the ordinary people do not even consider the "poor man's gold", much less the real deal. Meanwhile the elite have been accumulating much since 1974 while selling the narrative. Ask anyone born since 1975 if they have real physical assets (metals) as part of their portfolio; they would look at you like you like "what are you talking about?"
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This whole enchilada has been planned and the US bond and equity markets will have one last "hurrah" before the final and damning plunge. I'm not sure we will even have a market after that; at least for quite a while. Many will be completely wiped out and death and destruction will be in its wake.
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I do not buy into the East verses West when Russian soldiers are training on American soil and have been since 2009; just Google it. They are training for Martial Law scenarios. Easier to get mercenaries to murder civilians than your own people. Remember, one's believe or lack of belief regarding the starting point of our origins, the Scripture (young earth) verses millions of years will naturally determine your world view. For the elite Satanist; it means the heard must be thinned out severely in order to preserve "nature" and mankind and they are the ones that are superior and they will make the decisions based on their view of origins and their own superiority. God said the planet was made for man ( agift & it is) and it is disposable since a New Universe will be ushered in when sin is banished. He should know since He is the Author of all that we know except for one thing; sin. Sin is what man does and is not a "created thing" as many suppose.
Croc,
People born after 1975 have a portfolio?
I understand your point, but we are speaking about the 35-42 year old range...there are those with 401K's and young children..that assums they are not among the 60% of kids born today out of fornication by the many whores laden down with sin...who see children as a means of government aid.
I can handle taking care of foreign Mercs, going up against propagandized and bribed Mericans will be harder mentally at first,,, but not after a few.
Good news! The Baltic Dry Index is rising!
So ....... "There's never been a better time then now to buy a ...."
Is that what you're saying? I have a hard time discussing that issue with all those chemical and mechanical engineers who are getting fired in the O&G sector.
"Green Shoots" is another sore topic with them.