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The Markets Are Primed for a Collapse
The markets are primed for a very serious correction… possibly even a Crash.
Earnings are what drive stocks. Investors sometimes forget this during periods of speculative manias such as the one we’re experiencing today. But the reality is that there is no rational reason to buy a stock (company) other than to share it its profits via Earnings or Dividends.
With that in mind, consider that Earnings and Sales are both rolling over sharply. The below chart from Societe General illustrates this point nicely. Also note that we are rapidly approaching a period in which Year over Year changes in both metrics are negative.
Moreover, this is occurring at a time in which stocks have rallied far higher than earnings warranted.
Earnings Per Share or EPS leads stock prices as the below chart shows. Note the large divergence that occurred in 2007 at a time when EPS rolled over (EPS is the blue lines). We all know what came after this (2008).
Now look at the massive divergence occurring today (the right black square). It makes the 2007 divergence look small by comparison!
Stocks are more stretched than at any point in the last 10 years. At the very least we should see a 10-15% correction if not an outright Crash in the coming months.
And yet, 99% of investors will ignore the clear warnings today… just as 99% ignored the warnings in 2007 and 1999.
If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for the second round of the financial crisis, we offer a FREE investment report Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines easy, simple to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits.
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http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html
Best Regards
Phoenix Capital Research
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Kind of fun to look back 3 years or more at the Phoenix warnings back then.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-10-10/black-swan-no-one-talkin...
So far Germany doesn't look likely to exit the Euro :-). But in the FAR future - maybe 3 years hence, who knows!
Germany IS the Euro.
Pheonix Capital Research needs to consider changing its name. Here are some suggestions:
Don't take it personal there PCR, because everyone knows there will be a crash eventually and there's a bond bubble and all equities are over priced. But nobody is selling. It is all about timing, but just because you beat the drum every single post with the same story will not make the reconning day arrive any faster. You may consider investing in a bot to do your posting if you have not done so already, because the posts read like a bot wrote them.
I think a lot of people who have seen the plethora of your posts over the years would like to start seeing some new subject matter other than "crash immanent" theme. Surely your research delves into other subjects besides "crash". We all know a crash is coming, but it may be years away, possibly even surviving multiple black swan events!
I ve en reading these kind of headlines "The Markets Are Primed for a Collapse" for the past 3 years...nothing has happened...fed up with these articles...
while the FEd props up the markets dont forget the billions that are from foreign investors. When the foreigners start selling there will be blood!
They won't unload because they know the Fed can and WILL print unlimited dollars to push the market higher.
Why exit - why short - when you know you will most definitely LOSE.
You may as well just go all in and just ride the wave.
When it smashes into the rocks you are fucked anyway so in the meantime enjoy what is left of your short life.
Doesn't knowing this relieve the stress? Like the french are fond of saying this is fait accompli
Graham - how many years will it take you to grasp the fact that there is no sense in Fighting the Fed. And there is not second guessing the Fed.
Rule 1. The Fed has demonstrated that they will do anything to stop the market from crashing. ANYTHING. They will buy stocks - they will make sure struggling companies get billions at ZIRP so they can buy back their stocks
Rule 2. Instead of ranting do the smart thing - buy an index fund - because there is NO fucking way in hell anyone is going to outpeform this kind of market --- some will of course get lucky some time - but overall index funds are destroying managed money (oops - I guess that puts you out of busines if you jump on this horse eh Graham!)
Rule 3. Do not attempt to time and exit because the markets will go up until the Fed's money printing gig blows up in its face. And when that happens it will not matter if you guessed that right and dumped out or shorted --- you will be FUCKED. Because when this sucker blows it's the end of the global economy and civilization.
Rule 4. Take your winnings from your index fund returns and piss them away on women, booze, coke, fishing, travelling, eating, gambling --- do whatever the fuck you like to do most because you have limited time to live.
Rule 5. Remember - you are already a dead man (and life was only temporary anyway so big deal) because:
THE PERFECT STORM (see p. 59 onwards)
The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf
OIL BECOMING TOO EXPENSIVE TO EXTRACT
It emerged this week that the drilling of wells in the North Sea has crashed by around 50% this year, compared to the year-ago period. The reason for this is simple: the cost of extracting oil in North Sea has quintupled over the last decade, discouraging companies from investing within the region. http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2014/07/18/surging-north-sea-project-costs-are-putting-the-regions-future-at-risk-tullow-oil-plc-premier-oil-plc-xcite-energy-limited/
The marginal cost of the 50 largest oil and gas producers globally increased to US$92/bbl in 2011, an increase of 11% y-o-y and in-line with historical average CAGR growth. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/05/02/983171/marginal-oil-production-costs-are-heading-towards-100barrel/
Sanford C. Bernstein, the Wall Street research company, calls the rapid increase in production costs “the dark side of the golden age of shale”. In a recent analysis, it estimates that non-Opec marginal cost of production rose last year to $104.5 a barrel, up more than 13 per cent from $92.3 a barrel in 2011. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec3bb622-c794-11e2-9c52-00144feab7de.html#axzz3T4sTXDB5
Steven Kopits from Douglas-Westwood said the productivity of new capital spending has fallen by a factor of five since 2000. “The vast majority of public oil and gas companies require oil prices of over $100 to achieve positive free cash flow under current capex and dividend programmes. Nearly half of the industry needs more than $120,” he said
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11024845/Oil-and-gas-company-debt-soars-to-danger-levels-to-cover-shortfall-in-cash.html
No comment, I quit reading when it said 'earnings are what drive stocks'. Possibly a long time ago.
A 10% correction from DOW 18k = meaningless.
A 20% crash from DOW 18k= meaningless, unless starts a bear market that takes it lower.
If it doesn't take it lower, hft's can recover 20% in days and you'll see the biggest onslaught of bull run bullshit on MSM you've ever seen.
If the Fed doesn't know that ZIRP and QE don't help the economy by now, we truly are lost.
Well the US IS truly fucking lost.....
how many more years before the goyim awaken to this Godless Evil JWO ponzi circus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8OmxI2AYV8
Phoenix has been saying this for so many years, I gave up reading their stuff. Sure, it's going to happen someday, but they've been saying any day now for so long, it's become boring.
Buy the dip!!!! Dow 20k!
To hell with the individual, the household, the family; these markets are about: a fantasy of retirement, enriching the elites, and feeding the .gov mandarins and the kleptoligarchy.
The markets will crash when Wall Street is ready to clean more saver and retiree chips off the green felt of their casino - and not until then.
Paaaaaleeeeeeas, Those crash days are over,It's different this time................
Herman Bolhaar, voorzitter van het College van procureurs-generaal, ziet het AANDACHT=LIEFDE-paradigma wel zitten. Natuurlijk moet één en ander nog worden uitgetest, maar het verhaal van TTiP doet hem deugd.
http://nos.nl/artikel/2026871-ploumen-positief-over-omstreden-handelsver...
Minister Ploumen van Buitenlandse Handel zegt dat de beschavingsnorm 'waarheiddelen tussen rechtspersonen wordt gestimuleerd door tegengestelde geldstromen' in goede aarde is gevallen bij de andere Europese landen. het grootste voordeel van het verdrag is dat bedrijven bij conflicten zich moeten melden bij het omvattende geweten. Veel landen hanteren nog psychosegelovige wetgeving, waardoor het waarheiddelen niet snel en effectief kan worden gedaan. Ploumen en haar collega's uit Duitsland, Frankrijk, Zweden, Denemarken en Luxemburg willen dat een onafhankelijke arbitragecommissie uitspraak gaat doen als landen en bedrijven een conflict hebben. Natuurlijk gaat die onafhankelijke arbitragecommissie niet toetsen aan de psychosegelovige wetgeving van de afzonderlijke landen, maar aan de 'Logica van de 1'.
http://nos.nl/artikel/2026835-neem-de-tijd-voor-nieuw-belastingstelsel.html
Eén en ander gaat nog boven de pet van het gemiddelde kamerlid en om ze voor te bereiden op het DAB-systeem kwamen gisteren vakbonden, ex-politici, werkgeversorganisaties, belastingexperts en hoogleraren naar het Binnenhof. Ze mochten praten over de modernisering van het belastingstelsel en volgens 0ud-PvdA-staatssecretaris Vermeend heb je 'hier minstens drie jaar voor nodig'?!?!?
http://www.rtlnieuws.nl/columns/column/kees-berghuis/vvd-heeft-smaak-te-...
Hier denkt Kees Berghuis, chef van de politieke redactie, natuurlijk heel anders over, want de invoering van het DAB-systeem kan per direct. Tenminste wanneer de rechtstaat de psychosegelovige grondwetten inruilt voor het 'recht op waarheid', 'recht op uniciteit' en het 'recht op vrijheid'.
Thought EPS would rise with all the buy backs? Oh right, that's accounting anyway. Just make up the number.
lulz
Make sure to have a paid off house.
All the cash/currency will be canceled.
Yes they are primed , that's why we will see SPX 2300 and DOW 19000. Then the Jaws of death and a crash that will make 2008 a walk in the park. But then again they coudl print another 10 Trillion...
Is Greece still scheduled to crash 4/20?
Where have I seen this headline before?
yeah, that's right, at least 20 times over the past 4 years.
And eventually Phoenix Capital will be right! It's just that one will have made oneself bankrupt thrice over by the time that day comes. :( Sorry Phoenix, but we really have seen these dogged proclamations too many times.
A lot of the graphs over the last couple years have seemed to me to hint at things being years or months off. This graph makes it look like it is past due. But you are right so I'm not holding my breath.
A "crash" would require price discovery. Good luck with that. Everything will be "awesome" right up until the store shelves are bare.
They ain't primed for a crash, they are primed for another round of QE and ignore the fact that the last round only jacked the market up while suppressing the economy since only Wall St. is important.....
If the Fed doesn't know that ZIRP and QE don't help the economy by now, we truly are lost.
Can't crash when the JWO can print as much as they want. If that doesn't work they can change the accounting rules again, this time making liablities into double assets.
Double Entry Accounting becomes Multiplicative Entry Accounting
If only there was somebody, somewhere that would offer me a FREE investment report that outlines easy, simple to follow strategies I could use to not only protect my portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits...