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US Services PMI Surges To 6-Month Highs, Decouples From Hard Data Reality
Who could have seen that coming? Markit reports that US Services PMI surged to 58.6 in March (considerably better than the 57.0 exp) and the highest in 6 months. Despite the total collapse in US Macro data, the survey says... everything is awesome.
Except, under the covers the report is full of contradictions...
Despite stronger output and new business growth during March, the latest survey pointed to a moderation in service providers’ optimism towards the business outlook. The proportion of service sector companies expecting a rise in business activity over the next 12 months was the lowest since June 2012.
So to summarize...
- Service sector output growth accelerates to its strongest since September 2014 - GREAT!
- Payroll numbers at service sector companies increase at fastest pace for nine months - GREAT!
But...
- confidence towards the business outlook eases to its lowest since June 2012 - WAIT WHAT!
As Markit concludes,
“The US economy is showing signs of regaining momentum after the slowdown seen at the turn of the year. The flash PMI surveys are registering faster growth of both service sector and factory activity at the end of the first quarter, as well as ongoing strong hiring.
“While the surveys signal that economic growth will have slowed in the first quarter from an already modest 2.2% pace seen in the final quarter of last year, the upturn in the surveys in March provides a clear advance indication that stronger economic growth will return in the second quarter.
“While weak economic data for the first quarter will keep Fed rate hikes at bay in coming months, ruling out a June hike, the upturn in second quarter GDP signalled by the recent PMI data ups the odds of interest rates starting to rise at the September FOMC meeting.”
Charts: Bloomberg
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Bullshitish.
Looks like the butcher had his thumb on the scale.
Or maybe somebody fell asleep at their computer and their forehead is resting on the enter key after entering erroneous data.
Vague numbers drive the market but some people are looking below the chrome plating and are finding a smelly, brown, squishy substance.....
Looks like the butcher had his thumb on the scale.
...and it's apparently going to show up in the ground beef.
Nah, they will raise rate just a "little" bit and say "this is the new normal". Mission accomplished. Same bullshit as their redefining what "full employment" in the "new normal" is. This should blow up pension funds and old folks retirements, but they don't give a shit about that.
Must baffle the market with bullshit to take away attention from all the shit that is happening. Can you imagine where the market would be at if the PMI reading came in below expectations??
You know the difference between leading indicators and lagging macro indicators, don't you?
Jawbonation
...will keep Fed rate hikes at bay in coming months
shocking /s
Double-speak...it's all the rage these days....
I hope it goes the way of zubaz, jazzercise, and keytars.
Wow, look how out of whack US Macro Data is. Somebody needs to revise those numbers to square them with the hard, undisputed truth of the sentiment surveys.
Know-nothing reality is the turd in Wall St punch bowl, more 'surveys' please.
Markit = whatever number the shyster bankers want
Factors that CNBS has told me are bullish for stawks in the last 2 weeks...
Lower rates.....Higher rates
Lower oil.....Higher oil
Inflation....Deflation
The only thing that'll bring this "market" down is full scale nuclear war or the zombie apocalypse.
You almost have to say 'knock wood' after something like that. Hate. Zombies.
It looks like the PPT is having a hard time keeping stawks up so TPTB has to find something else they can manipulate...
I was looking for an excuse to take all my money off the sidelines, go balls deep in the market. This is it, I feel hella lucky.
Markit would report that 3 nukes falling on Wall St beats their surveyed estimate of 2....stawks jump.
The economy appears to be going up or down, maybe left or right. The survey is still not entirely sure.
The Fed wants REAL BAD to raise rates. Just to say they've "normalized" things. Lots of data being fudged, big time.
SNAP DEPRESSION is on us over next 6 months. Demand falling everywhere. Companies laying off steadily. Will continue. Because of the BS propaganda, many people working in good jobs and without a clue don't realize how bad things are turning. They will turn.
Lag time.
This is about SERVICES. I work in the services area and REPAIR equipment used primarily in manufacturing and construction. Repair service is booming due to one factor. Companies are repairing worn out crap, rather than buying needed new equipment. The vast majority of repairs coming in are either under warranty, or garbage that should be scrapped. Not what I would call bullish.
Is someone still keeping track of Data Reality?
Is it classified?
Is the publication of Data Reality a threat to National Security?
Ok bets are on, GDP 3 % or 0 %?