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Default Risk Soars After Ukraine's 'American' FinMin Suggests Severe Haircuts For Creditors (Including Russia)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

When money managers talk outside their narrow field, nonsense is guaranteed to ensue. No better example than this Bloomberg piece on Ukraine’s ‘debt restructuring’ plans, which are as much a political tool as they are anything else at all. Ukraine’s American Finance Minister has announced a broad restructuring plan with a wide range of severe haircuts for creditors, and she – well, obviously – wishes to include Russia in the group of creditors who are about to get their heads shaved.

And despite all obvious angles to the issue that are not purely economical, Bloomberg presents a whole array of finance professionals who are free to spout their entirely irrelevant opinions on the topic. If you didn’t know any better, you’d be inclined to think that perhaps Russia is indeed just another creditor to Kiev.

Putin Plays Wildcard as Ukraine Bond Restructuring Talks Begin

As Ukraine begins bond-restructuring talks, it finds itself face-to-face with a familiar foe: Russia. President Vladimir Putin bought $3 billion of Ukrainian bonds in late 2013. The cash was meant to support an ally, then-President Yanukovych.

That is, for starters, a far too narrow way of putting it. Russia simply wanted to make sure Ukraine would remain a stable nation, both politically and economically, because A) it didn’t want a failed state on its borders and B) it wanted to ensure a smooth transfer of its gas sales to Europe through the Ukraine pipeline systems. Whether that would be achieved through Yanukovych or someone else was a secondary issue. Putin was never a big fan of the former president, but at least he kept the gas flowing.

While his government fell just two months later, Russia was left with the securities. Now, those holdings take on an added importance as Putin’s stance on the debt talks could affect the terms that all other bondholders get in the restructuring. Russia, which is Ukraine’s second-biggest bondholder, has maintained that it won’t take part in any restructuring deal. Here are the three most likely tacks – as seen by money managers and analysts – that Putin’s government could pursue.

Here’s the biggest issue here, one which Bloomberg conveniently omits. Not only was Russia left with the securities after the Maidan coup (or revolution if you must), but the money provided through them to Ukraine began to be used to organize and fund various battalions and other groups, thrown together into a Kiev ‘army’, that started aiming for and at the Russian speaking population in East Ukraine. 6000 of them did not survive this.

The same would have happened in Crimea (Moscow is convinced of this) had not Putin made it part of Russia before that could happen. Do note that one of the very first decrees issued by US installed PM Yatsenyuk and his ‘cabinet’ was one that banned Russian to be used as an official language by millions of people who speak only Russian. That Yats withdrew the decree within a week didn’t matter anymore, the game was on right then and there.

Ukraine, after gaining a lifeline from the IMF, included Russia’s bond among the 29 securities and enterprise loans it seeks to renegotiate with creditors before June. Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko has promised not to give any creditor special treatment. The revamp will include a reduction in the coupon, an extension in maturities as well as a cut in the face value, she said.

 

Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergey Storchak said March 17 that the nation isn’t taking part in the debt negotiations because it’s an “official” creditor, not a private bondholder. If the Kremlin maintains this view, it would be “negative” for private bondholders as “other investors will be more tempted to hold out as well,” according to Marco Ruijer at ING. He predicts a 45% chance of a hold out, while Michael Ganske at Rogge in London says it’s 70%.

Here’s where we get into la-la land, with money managers speaking out on things they don’t know anything about. Which can then be used to lead up to a goal-seeked conclusion, as we will see. Because of the situation I painted above, Russia cannot and will not take part in the ‘debt negotiations’ the west tries to shove down its throat through Jaresko’s restructuring plans.

If only because as soon as the restructuring has given Kiev some financial breathing space, is will use it to reinforce its troops and go after its Russian speaking compatriots again. It’s a not a finance issue at all, it’s life and death, and that makes percentages thrown around by money guys behind desks in high rises not just futile, but positively inane.

There is little precedence of sovereigns and private bondholders taking part in the same talks, given that a nation’s debt considerations include a “foreign-policy dimension,” according to Matthias Goldmann at the Max Planck Institute in Heidelberg, Germany. Ukraine and Russia may need to find an “appropriate forum,” such as the Paris Club, for separate negotiations, he said.

 

Holding out can lead to two outcomes: Russia gets paid back in full after the notes mature in December, or Ukraine defaults. The former option is politically unacceptable in Kiev, according to Tim Ash at Standard Bank, while the latter would likely start litigation and delay the borrower’s return to foreign capital markets, which Jaresko expects in 2017. “Russia will be holdouts, to try and force a messy restructuring,” Ash said by e-mail on March 19.

No, Russia is not interested in a ‘messy restructuring’.

 

It will simply refuse to throw Kiev’s aggression against its own people a lifeline, and it will insist on finding that “appropriate forum”, instead of the one Jaresko tries to force it into. Russia will demand to be paid in full, and if that means a Ukraine default, it is fine with that. Don’t forget that the $3 billion in bonds is by no means the only debt Ukraine owes Moscow. There are many billions in unpaid gas purchases, and undoubtedly many other bills.

If Russia holds out and litigates, there is a “real threat” that Ukraine will deem the Eurobond an odious debt, Lutz Roehmeyer at Landesbank Berlin said.

 

This refers to a legal theory that a nation shouldn’t be forced to repay international obligations if they don’t serve the best interests of the country and its citizens.

Nice theory. Why don’t we have Greece use it too? Russia would obviously never accept this. At the very minimum, gas would stop flowing through Ukraine to Europe.

The chance of Russia joining the talks is about 10%, according to ING’s Ruijer and Rogge’s Ganske. If Russia joins it would be “somewhat positive as all investors will be treated equally, and then it can be resolved quicker,” Ruijer said.

These guys really have no idea what’s going on. They see the planet exclusively in dollar terms. And they have no idea why they said 10%, might as well have been 5% or 25%. Hot air.

Bank of America said in a note last week that Ukraine will seek a principal reduction of about 35% in its opening salvo, which may be rejected by creditors. It said that bond valuations around 40 cents on the dollar, indicate a probability of a 20% reduction in principal as well as a reduction in interest rates.

 

Ukraine’s benchmark 2017 dollar notes traded at 37.8 cents on the dollar on Thursday.

Sounds like things in the real world are already much worse than in BoA notes.

“By participating in the talks, Russia would have a better chance of getting a deal it wants,” Liza Ermolenko at Capital Economics, said. “However, it seems that politics, rather than economics, will be behind whatever Russia decides to do.”

No kidding, Liza.

There is no collective-agreement clause which could make any deal binding for Russia, Anna Gelpern, a Georgetown law professor, said.

And there we get to the core of the matter. If Jaresko wants to force anything on Russia, she’ll have to move outside of the law. Which I’m sure she, and the US cabal that rules Kiev, would be more than willing to do, but it would mean a default no matter what happens, simply because time is of the essence, and the issue would drag on for a long time.

The restructuring of each bond must be agreed to by a majority of its holders, according to Olena Zubchenko, a lawyer at Lavrynovych & Partners, a legal adviser to Ukraine during the bond issue to Russia in December 2013. The Eurobonds are governed by English law and traded on the Dublin Exchange. The Russian bond has a covenant allowing the holder to call it if Ukraine’s public debt tops 60% of economic output, which the IMF said took place last year.

Another noteworthy detail: Russia could have called the bonds quite a while ago, but has so far decided against that. They could still do it at any moment, though. And since the IMF has approved another loan to Ukraine recently, and Capitol Hill has agreed to send deadly offensive weapons to Kiev, they have good reason to do it. The Jaresko idea of ‘we will saddle you with losses, so we can go kill more Russian speaking people’ will certainly not appeal to Moscow, not will it be condoned.

“It’s a kind of nuclear option, evaporating their leverage,” Rogge’s Ganske said. “If Russia accelerates, then Ukraine has to pay or default on it — i.e. game over.”

This bond issue is of course just one of many ways in which the west seeks to aggravate Russia. If and/or when the US starts shipping arms to Kiev, and the internal civil war restarts, Russia will have to take measures. Which is exactly what the west has been trying to provoke it to do for at least a full year now. It is therefore Russia’s task to find those measures that take ‘the other side’ by surprise and leaves it scrambling for answers.

Over the past year and change, after the Kiev putsch and the subsequent aggression on the side of the newly installed ‘government’ against its own citizens in East Ukraine, Russia has always insisted on talking about the EU and US as its ‘partners’, even as the language thrown at it deteriorated at a rapid clip. It must already be about a year ago that Hillary Clinton first referred to Putin as Hitler. As for the anti-Moscow utterances by the Kiev ‘government’, let’s not even go there.

The Russians have shown recently that they understand very well what the intentions are behind the NATO build-up and all the hollow accusations and innuendo in the western media. They have also made clear that they are ready and prepared to activate any and all defense systems, including nuclear, at their disposal.

Russia sees the world as one in which multiple major powers can govern together. The US sees Russia as a power that must be defeated by any means necessary, and subdued. One of these worldviews must prevail in the end. Perhaps we won’t know which one that will be until the third power, China, raises its voice. What we do know is that Russia will back down only so far, and then it will no more.

 

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Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:21 | 5933030 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

another day that ZH praised Putin..

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:33 | 5933065 negative rates
negative rates's picture

What do they have to say about the American default? Hello?? Is there any one home or did we take the denail trip again???

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:11 | 5933198 strannick
strannick's picture

Putin should just grab Donbass as collateral for the bond default, and call it a day.

Meanwhile America creates failed states to destabilize its enemies. Not much fun for the citizens of those failed states, but as Madeline Albrecht described half a million starving Iraqi children, they are acceptable collateral damage.

America ruins the world to rule it.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:22 | 5933297 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

If you can't goad them into war, stiff 'em

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:26 | 5933324 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

    

If Russia holds out and litigates, there is a “real threat” that Ukraine will deem the Eurobond an odious debt, Lutz Roehmeyer at Landesbank Berlin said.

 

This refers to a legal theory that a nation shouldn’t be forced to repay international obligations if they don’t serve the best interests of the country and its citizens.

Nice theory. Why don’t we have Greece use it too? Russia would obviously never accept this. At the very minimum, gas would stop flowing through Ukraine to Europe.

Well Said.

 

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 10:31 | 5933630 Manthong
Manthong's picture

“just grab Donbass”

That’s’s the west’s problem.. if you break it , you buy it.

 

It’ll be a cold day in Ukraine and Eastern Europe before they haircut the Rooskies.

 

Hmm..  what’s THAT got to do about the price of gas?

 

Cash sales only.. pay the cashier, in gold before refueling.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 12:34 | 5934092 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

" it wanted to ensure a smooth transfer of its gas sales to Europe through the Ukraine pipeline systems. "

Only till 2018 . Then they will successfully reroute all pipelines to europe from ukraine .

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 10:49 | 5933687 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

indeed, some debt is less easy to repudiate then other. as I often say, not all debt is created equal. but this is of interest, too:

"Russia sees the world as one in which multiple major powers can govern together. The US sees Russia as a power that must be defeated by any means necessary, and subdued. One of these worldviews must prevail in the end. Perhaps we won’t know which one that will be until the third power, China, raises its voice. What we do know is that Russia will back down only so far, and then it will no more. "

there are four greater actors in this: the US, Russia, China and... yes, us, the staunch allies of the US, the NATO partners, the EU, the eurozone, whatever

if you are asking for multilateralism... well, there we don't disagree. we never really were for a full unilateral hegemony. we still smart from many post-9/11 "forced marches"

we just are... diplomatic about it. in fact, we resemble China in many ways. you know, quieter, compared to the loud war cries from Moscow and Washington

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 11:19 | 5933804 conscious being
conscious being's picture

Ghordius, events have confirmed you are in an occupied colony, with spineless weasels masquerading as leaders. That's why the author left you off the list of decision makers.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 13:30 | 5934397 Lea
Lea's picture

"there are four greater actors in this"

Ghordius, there are only three. The UE is politically irrelevant and you know it. Who in the EU leadership has even a semblance of independent thought, Tusk?

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:32 | 5933350 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

good thing they installed that american citizen as there fin minister.....if not one may think they were up to no good....but being an american we know we can trust her 100%...

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:36 | 5933366 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

It's easy for her to do this.

Until there are several hundred Russian T-90's paked outside of her office in Kiev along with 90% of the Uke military destroyed or surrendering to a Russian invasion.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 13:14 | 5934265 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"What do they have to say about the American default?..."

Indeed, correct. A country defaults when they can no longer make payments in Euros, Yen or Dollars. When you've got the ECB, BOJ or the Fed, you just keep on printing and writing unbacked checks.

Thus, the US would have "defaulted" long ago, were it not for its power to keep issuing Dollars.

@blindfaith, you're Moron, if not an Imbecile. Because you STILL haven't learned anything after all these years on ZH.

p.s. I'm not "name-calling", as some may think. I'm using the term 'Moron' in a clinically-correct sense (as it was originally defined): The mental capacity of an adult that is equivalent to an 8-12 y.o. child. That describes you, @blindfaith -- your points are equivalent to an 8-12 y.o. child.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:35 | 5933069 Pheonyte
Pheonyte's picture

It's a guest article asshole.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:52 | 5933437 RadioactiveRant
RadioactiveRant's picture

A guest article picked by ZH. The problem with the propaganda, and the reason it won't work on anyone other than putinbots, is its not very subtle. I get the hypocricy of the US/UK lecturing Russia about expansionism and futhering their interests through aggresion but it doesn't make it right from a global humanitarian point of view.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 10:50 | 5933707 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

+1, by jingo!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 10:59 | 5933733 Gambit
Gambit's picture

Name calling is trait of an immature and/or ignorant individual who is unable to argue his viewpoint successful with concrete examples. Either make a good argument or get the fuck out of here you fucking imbicile.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 11:06 | 5933761 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

all this "immature", "ignorant" and "fucking imbecile" for a small "putinbot"? hohoho. I get regularly called worse things then that, here

I think that he did make a good argument. where is yours?

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 12:35 | 5934098 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

choke on ya radioactive dick .

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:06 | 5933099 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Took the NSA's balls out of your throat long enough to type that, did you?

Or is, to you, typing and swallowing spunk the same as walking and chewing gum?

 

At least Putin earns respect, and thus praise.  Name me one fuckhead in DC who does.  You can't, but oh those DC fuckheads will use every arm of the control apparatus to intimidate and subjugate you if you don't lavish it upon them.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 10:55 | 5933721 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

DC plutocrats marching to the humm of the "Khazarian trance".... Gotta love the lock step vote to send lethal aid to the knuckleads in Kiev, while also calling for "regime change" in Russia, whom has a President with a 80%ish approval rating, from a Country which has a dude with about 40%. 

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:14 | 5933252 anonymice
anonymice's picture

blindfaith wrote: "another day that ZH praised Putin.."

Don't worry. You get equal time praising Obama.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 11:30 | 5933851 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

I must say, it is considerably easier to praise Putin than those other guys you seem to like.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 12:31 | 5934076 iofera
iofera's picture

It's common knowledge that Vlad's got enough money squirreled away to essentially be an oligarch in his own right.

Even Obama doesn't do that.

What does that make Vlad?  Why, a lying, thieving, conniving crook and a place among history's other infamous rogues, of course.

Zero Hedge apologists notwithstanding, there will be a special place in hell reserved for Mr. Putin.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 13:42 | 5934423 Lea
Lea's picture

"It's common knowledge that Vlad's got enough money squirreled away to essentially be an oligarch in his own right."

Common knowledge where, in the MSM media? If you don't prove what you say, you're about as credible as any Beltway politician or journo.

Links?

...and no MSM baloney, please.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 15:24 | 5934932 iofera
iofera's picture

Did mama have any children that lived, Bob?

Open your eyes.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:26 | 5933035 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Meet the new boogieman, Russia, same as the old boogieman, the Soviet Union. The best tricks are the oldest tricks repackaged and relabeled.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:36 | 5933070 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It kind of sucks for us that Bush put into play the practice of preemptive war. It will give legitamacy to a Russian first strike. 

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:45 | 5933108 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

We'll hate them for their freedoms too.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:23 | 5933303 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Now that's funny

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:23 | 5933304 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:06 | 5933197 winchester
winchester's picture

Meet the new boogieman, Russia, same as the old boogieman, the Soviet Union. The best tricks are the oldest tricks repackaged and relabeled.

 

i'm sorry...But...yesterday i bought a new dress to my wife and.... for your information...your trick just do not work.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:10 | 5933218 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The article states that the current illegitimate government in Kiev is targeting Russian-speaking citizens. That sounds awfully like ethnic cleansing, if you ask me. Perhaps Putin is trying to reprise the role of Bill Clinton, who opposed ethnic cleansing in the Balkans. Should the USSA therefore support Russia? Likewise, Ukraine's government is trying to suppress multilingualism. Why is the USSA supporting this sort of discrimination when it is trying so hard to implement it in the USSA?

I'd be confused if these policies were coming from a president I trusted. (No, I'm not holding my breath waiting for one.)

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 10:18 | 5933568 Stumpy4516
Stumpy4516's picture

But this boogieman is conflicted.  Russia sells gas to Uke at a nice discount, less than to the EU.

Russia forced the EUke army to twice allow a large concentrated segment of the WUke army to safely withdraw under a cease fire.  Only to have to fight them again (and for EUke's to die doing so).

Russia does other business with the WUke's, the WUke's that are killing the EUke's.

The Russian elite seem to be cooperating in selling natural resources/rights to US countries.

And it's interesting that China is going out of it's way to help the WUke's.  From RT - China is going to provide Ukraine with $15 billion in loans over 15 years to support construction of affordable housing, Yep, the WUke's who have been, and will again, destroy the cities of EUke (including ethnic cleansing, mass executions, phosphorus bombs) is getting humanitarian assistance and affordable housing from China.

Hey, EUke's, not sure what you can do about it as you are dependent on Russia for ammo to avoid a quicker death, but you are getting used.  And NO ONE gives a ----- about the injustice, your misery or blood.  I respect you courage but packing bags and going into Russia or a EU country may be best.  Let NATO move in.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 13:17 | 5934330 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Cog Dis, this is OT, but please see my response to your feedback yesterday...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-26/meet-surveillance-state-repeal-...

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 12:05 | 5933955 new Kirk2NCC1701

Hope this clarifies things. Cheers.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:24 | 5933038 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

 

 

 

 

It is time ZH has a opinion/blog section and a 'factual' section for folks to choose from.  This thing of posting 'blogs' on the headline page instead of at the top with the rest of the 'blogs' has made all I read here now...suspect.  Suspect indeed.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:29 | 5933051 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Define 'factual' please. Are you speaking of 'facts' you agree with or 'facts' Tyler agrees with?

In a world overrun with propaganda and controlled media rarely can anything be labeled as 'fact' these days.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:38 | 5933074 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

Nobody cares about facts... I constantly get junked for pointing out facts like the almost impossible mathematical possibility that all the FED chairs since 'Bretton Woods' was dissolved [& money printing really got going], are linked in a particular way...

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:47 | 5933113 Usurious
Usurious's picture

 

 

''If Jews account for just 2% of the general population, then, all things being equal, there would be a 1/50 chance of a single Jew being selected as Fed Chair. The odds of FIVE consecutive Jews would therefore be 1/50 x 1/50 x 1/50 x 1/50 x 1/50 = 1 in 312,500,000!"

Radical Marijuana


Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:08 | 5933213 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Yes, but don't forget the Holocaust -we owe it to the jews. For the next thousand years, we have to give them what they want. And quit bringing up facts. Most truth and real facts are anti-semitic. Tyler may be forced to ban you from posting on this website. The Ministry of Truth requires such (or a t least they will very soon) 

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:34 | 5933351 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

 "1 in 312,500,000!""

 

Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 649,740 to 1

Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Academy Award: 11,500 to 1

Odds of winning an Olympic medal: 662,000 to 1

Odds of being an astronaut: 13,200,000 to 1

Odds of bowling a 300 game: 11,500 to 1

Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1

Odds of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 13:56 | 5934492 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"1 in 312,500,000!"

Some Lottery odds:
Odds of winning Mega Ball grand prize: 258,890,850 : 1
Odds of winning Mega Ball $1M: 18,492,204 : 1
Odds of winning in Powerball Grandprize: 175,223,510 : 1
Odds of winning in Powerball $1M Prize: 5,153,633 : 1
It turns out that you have better odds of hitting the jackpot in Powerball or MegaMillions.

Odds of being an astronaut, AND picking the DWTS Winner 2 years in a row
=13,20,0000*10*2 = 264,000,00 : 1

Odds of total destruction of skyscraper by airplane, a month after purchase and collecting multi-billion dollar insurance on a 10% Down purchase: 1:1 (100%) if in Manhattan

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 10:14 | 5933548 Tigermoth
Tigermoth's picture

If I remember WWII history correctly it was 6 million Jews perished in the Holocuast, and also 20 million Soviets died in their battles to defeat the Nazis. So isn't it 3.33 times more wrong to be anti-Soviet (Russian) than to be anti-semitic? Just wondering.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 14:35 | 5934684 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

wrong inputs.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:38 | 5933081 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Get your facts first. Then you can distort them as you please--Mark Twain

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:22 | 5933300 strannick
strannick's picture

His mind's made up. Don't confuse him with facts

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:34 | 5933068 negative rates
negative rates's picture

They do, it's called the interpretation section, it's off to the right of the screen.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:39 | 5933085 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Can't find it. All I see there are ads for things I recently shopped for and Ukrainian 'dates' which I did NOT shop for.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:38 | 5933083 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

If it's too hard for you to differentiate between news and commentary, maybe you're not in the right place.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:43 | 5933101 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Is this why you are called blind faith?

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:54 | 5933134 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

I think his name is quite fitting for his job as a paid .gov stooge.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 14:29 | 5934646 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

Factual section would leave you out...

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:28 | 5933050 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Russia sees the world as one in which multiple major powers can govern together. The US sees Russia as a power that must be defeated by any means necessary, and subdued.

 

Right...you go ask all those Countries who got out from under the Soviet governance just how much they miss the ol' boot on the cheek.

Oh..but ZH has become the "CNBC" Russia booster and self proclaimed cheeerleader for the country THAT WILL start WWIII.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:36 | 5933075 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Are you writing history again? I'll skip this chapter.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:53 | 5933130 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

You paid trolls should at least change you style when you change your screen name. Your stupidity and desparation are showing. And it ain't pretty.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:56 | 5933145 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I recall that FDR was economically 'applying pressure' to Japan prior to Dec. 7, 1941. That turned out well, didn't it?

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:08 | 5933212 winchester
winchester's picture

5 years and 3 month ?

 

how can possibly be so long in false...

 

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 12:38 | 5934119 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

He made his account and went in hibernation that's why .

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:42 | 5933391 HowdyDoody
HowdyDoody's picture

Come on dude, let it all out! Full caps only from now on.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 14:25 | 5934631 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

Ignorant post

You wrongly conflate Soviet with Russian Federation

Soviet was never a Russian construct

From 1917 thru Stalin was never Russians in control

 

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:29 | 5933054 JohnGaltUk
JohnGaltUk's picture

I wont be Russian out to buy any Ukraine bonds

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:37 | 5933078 Realname
Realname's picture

I wish people would quit using the bankster/politician term 'haircut'. Call it what it is...stealing. The same goes for bail-ins and bail-outs. Its all theft, no matter what word(s) they want to use to try and disguise the truth.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:41 | 5933092 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

It is only stealing if it involves a granny and a chicken sandwich at a 7-11

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:48 | 5933115 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"Welching", in my hood...let's just say we didn't rely on Moody or Fitch for ratings either.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:58 | 5933120 Monetas
Monetas's picture

"Social" ism .... up vote                                                                                         "Theft" ism .... down vote

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:46 | 5933105 Leszek
Leszek's picture

"Russia simply wanted to make sure Ukraine would remain a stable nation, both politically and economically"

What an absurd! Total nonsense! 

"The US sees Russia as a power that must be defeated by any means necessary, and subdued." - not true at all! There was an intense cooperation US-Russia before Putin decided to go to war with Ukraine.


Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:22 | 5933298 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

For fuck's sake, Hillary, use a secured account already!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:46 | 5933112 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

debtors stiffing the creditors...again

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:00 | 5933163 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Many ZHers have called for a similar action right here in the USSA. Indeed, some have boasted of doing just that.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:54 | 5933136 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Oh, Natalie. You really plan to give the Russian people the finger? Big fucking mistake. The Russian army can be in Kiev in a matter of hours and by then you'd better be in a plane over the Atlantic Ocean if life and liberty you value.

Hope the puff piece in Bloomberg was worth whatever the Russians have in store for you, bitch.

Death to the banksters!

Death to the Kiev junta!

Glory to Russia!

Glory to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 08:59 | 5933157 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

On a scale of 1 to 10 on the doom porn-o-meter.

This article scores a 4.1

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:09 | 5933214 dogismycopilot
dogismycopilot's picture

This is going to be fun to watch. A Ukranian whore Versus Putin.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:11 | 5933229 winchester
winchester's picture

pls, can someone close the fucking troll door, it's just like fagz , they only ass fuck but reproduce faster than rabbids.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:33 | 5933353 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

A fractured Ukraine has become a failed State with little prospect for a benefactor to invest in Ukraines political/economic future the way Germany invested in East German reunification. On the other hand, each side will maintain an interest for "strategic" reasons,  Therefore conflict, civil unrest and further East West tensions will continue with very little benefit for Ukraine itself. There is even more reason for China to steer clear or getting involved, contrary to the author's conclusion.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 12:05 | 5933965 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Nothing but crap for China in a deal with Russia over the west.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:34 | 5933358 Bopper09
Bopper09's picture

I guess Ukraine is also asking for a haircut on natural gas delivery.  A bald haircut.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:45 | 5933404 HowdyDoody
HowdyDoody's picture

From 2019(?) there will be no transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. There goes all their transit fees - $4 billion or so per year.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 12:03 | 5933961 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Yes then you can sell gas to the south for China funny money, they will not pay in gold...

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:45 | 5933406 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

so was the $3 Billion loan by Russia - incredibly smart for low risk amount?

Russia gets to block new senior credits by IMF until paid - no new cash no new war at some level?

 

which means USA will come in offer guarantee to Ukraine and buy the bonds at Face Value - and then Russia blows up the use of proceeds of the new loan from IMF in the form of armaments supplied to the battlefield

 

checkmate - one more time!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:47 | 5933412 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

it's funny how this article points out all the most obvious propogandistic bullshit of propogandaberg magazine. i want to restate the point of the article in much more direct terms. because it's muddled.

however, in the machiavellian real world, there is a reason that putin WANTS TO OWN UKRANIAN DEBT, AND IT IS BECAUSE PUTIN WANTS UKRAINE IN DEBT TO RUSSIA THE SAME WAY WESTERN POWERS LEND MONEY TO DEVELOPING WORLD NATIONS.

DEBT IS CONTROL AND POWER.

yes , isn't it more than totally obvious the west would BUY OUT RUSSIA'S DEBT?!?!!?!?!

russia WILL NOT SELL ITS DEBT OUT TO THE WEST.

you fucktards.

THIS IS PART OF WAR , AND IF YOU ARE STATING U.S.G. IS THE INSTIGATOR , THAT IS FINE.

BUT DO NOT MIS-STATE THE NATURE OF DEBT. DEBT IS MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL IN SOME CIRCUMSTANCES AT INCEPTION , EVEN IF NOT PERFECTLY BALANCED IN ITS TERMS. INTEREST PAYMENTS ARE MADE UNTIL THEY ARE STOPPED, AND THEN DEBT CAN ONLY BE A TOOL OF CONTROL.

RUSSIA'S BONDS MAY HAVE BEEN CONCIEVED ON MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TERMS, BUT BECAUSE OF THE COUP, THIS IS no longer the case.

so russia is using it's debt in strategic manner. WHAT ELSE SHOULD PUTIN DO WITH THEM? "SELL" them!??!!?!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 09:58 | 5933473 iofera
iofera's picture

It's pretty simple. 

Ukraine needs to do whatever hurts Russia the most.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 10:03 | 5933495 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Time for Greece to default on bonds held by the ECB

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 10:03 | 5933496 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Time for Greece to default on bonds held by the ECB

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 10:12 | 5933532 MidwestJester
MidwestJester's picture

I'm a bit of a fumducker, but why is there no mention of the 'loan' we gave to Ukraine, you know, with US Taxpayer dollars? Wouldn't there be a haricut...err....stealing of that money as well? That's what I would be pissed about, as a US taxpayer!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 10:48 | 5933677 cwsuisse
cwsuisse's picture

It is evident that the US is doing everything it possibly can to deteriorate relations with Russia. The language used against Putin is appaling. The CIA distributing a press release according to which CIA specialists analyzed photos and movies displaying Putin and believe he suffers from the Asperger syndrom (which was published for instance by the UK Telegraph) marks a new low in treating the representative of another nation. The desperation in the US regarding Putin is palpable. He managed to have less debt and higher GDP growth than the US, revived the Russian arms industry and lessened the dependnce on oil and gas considerably (Mikhail Chodorkowsky mentiones only 20% in his recent speech at Chatham House in London) and is burdening individuals and corporations with the lowest taxes (13%). He is not an angle - but Obama is one neither and he lacks the economical achievements of Putin. The only things he does (frequently) is engaging in wars which is to an extent adding to GDP. Imagine what the US GDP what look like without wars - it would certainly be in negative territory. 

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 12:25 | 5934053 Rusty Nayle
Rusty Nayle's picture

Hmmm...methinks the Ukrainians need to break out the the secret weapon....The Trillion dollar platinum coin!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 12:56 | 5934225 atthelake
atthelake's picture

Time for America to default on all fraudulent loans from these traitors. 

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