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Rig Count Decline Reaches 16 Weeks, Pace Of Decline Drops Dramatically
In 2008/9, the rig count decline 18 weeks straight (dropping 57% overall over a 41 week period). Today's mere 21 rig decline to 1048 marks the 16th straight week of drops (down 45%) and is the smallest drop in 11 weeks. This is the biggest 16-week decline in rig count in 30 years. Crude is not reacting significantly yet but it appears the limits of efficiency gains before production takes a hit.
- *U.S. TOTAL RIG COUNT -21 To 1,048 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS
- *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT -12 TO 813, BAKER HUGHES SAYS
16th week in a row but smallest drop in 2015...
But this is still the biggest 16-week percentage drop in rigs sicne 1986...
A modest reaction so far...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Could they place one of these rigs over Hillary's crotch to at least keep 1 crew busy?
Only until they run out of pipe.
I wouldn't drill that well with your bit.
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
7k? poor faggot!
The main question is: how will this drop be different from 2008-09?
We are refining almost 19 million barrels of oil a day now. Who the heck is buying all that product? Certainly not the USA.
We only consume 8 million barrels of oil a day...which has remained about constant since 2006.
We all are the world's largest producer of ethanol. Coal prices have collapsed, the cost of batteries is collapsing. At some point the cost of electricity will collapse inside the United States.
A monthly bill of about five bucks sounds about right to me.
You won't need gasoline anymore then, let alone ethanol.
I would still avoid the bulk of the debt market save treasuries until Spring truly sets in. That's looking like May right now.
Consume 8 million barrels of oil a day? Since the USA imports 7+ million barrels per day, that is wrong. Care to provide a link or at least your thought process?
Also oil and 'batteries' have nothing to do with each other...one is for transportation and one is for storing electricity.
There's a lot of learning curve left in front of this one.
One will always need gasoline as long as they can afford an automobile.
If anyone cares, since I have called most markets right, I see oil in the twenties at some point.
As far as utilities, that is a hard one for me. Some of their costs will come down but they are currently being regulated the hell out by the current EPA. At some point people just won't be able to afford it. At some point it will be that dire that what some people call necessities like heat will be unaffordable. Thus prices will have to come down, but after many people have suffered the loss of electricity, or gas or whatever. Markets react to equilibrium, but they don't react immediately, it takes time.
$5 bucks a month? More likely, you will have defaulted on your mortgage if you have one and you are homeless. The remaining home owners are in the higher percent that can afford a wealth cut of 50% or more. They will pay about the same percent.
I don't think everyone realize how dire things may get. If you think things are bizarre and chaotic now, then you haven't seen anything yet.
it is not the end.
No, it's the beginning of the end...
Still above 1000 but we're getting there......
This time next yr. we will be paying $7 the gallon at the no-name pump...
im not sure about dollars...
Yep, that's about a silver dime when the time comes.
(Yawn).
....as noted here in the past 3 weeks, it's the service rig count that you want to follow at this point in time, as opposed to the drilling rig count (Baker Hughes count). When the service rig count falls you are then at the point of " I can't take the pain anymore and I'm going to walk away from this broken well". As a proxy for the Bakken I usually track Key Energy Services service rig count. They have 28 rigs in the state and so far, from what I here, 25 are still on site working. There's a ways to go, evidently, before you see a major fall off of Bakken production.
herman55, where do you source this? Baker H has it?
No, Baker doesn't really track this. I live out here in Williston North Dakota; it's just "trade information".
Working over wells is quite cheap in terms of down oil (delayed production) when oil is <$50/bbl! Would you rather take a well making 50 bbl/day offline to work it over in hopes of making 100 bbl/day when oil is $48/bbl or when oil is $120/bbl?
Actually, I'd rather work over a well, any well, when it's $120, $150, $200 a barrel. So what's your point ??
I suppose if you're some operator with an 11% interest bond payment you'll do most anything--to the pain point of no return--to get some cash out of it. I might add that when these service rig companies release their 1st quarter financials that you zoom, immediately, to their outstanding receivables. From what I hear lots and lots of operators are "choosing" to repair broken wells, even at this low crude price.............but are extremely slow in paying the workover/service rig companies.....if they pay them at all.
It'll be interesting.........and we'll all know in about 30 days.
We should detonate a nuclear bomb several miles under ground. It would frack the shit out of everything and free up the oil.
Now that is some funny shit.
May I recommend placing the nuke under Washington DC?
I've got an idea. Why don't we burn the Saudi's easy-to-recover oil, and save our newly-discovered reserves for later, when we've developed more alternatives (e.g. thorium salt reactors) to compete with fossil fuels.
Oh, wait a minute. That's exactly what we're doing. No blue-ribbon commission or energy czar or national policy needed. Just the price mechanism in a free market, that's all.
"How in the hell did that work out?" sez the clueless.