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What Deflation? The Price Of Ground Beef Has Doubled Since The Last Financial Crisis

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Since the depths of the last recession, the price of ground beef in the United States has doubled.  Has your paycheck doubled since then?  Even though the Federal Reserve insists that we are in a “low inflation” environment, the government’s own numbers show that the price of ground beef has been on an unprecedented run over the past six years.  In early 2009, the average price of a pound of ground beef was hovering near 2 dollars.  In February, it hit a brand new all-time record high of $4.238 per pound.  Even just 12 months ago, the price of ground beef was sitting at $3.555 per pound.  So we are talking about a huge increase. 

And this hits American families where they really live.  Each year, the average American consumes approximately 270 pounds of meat.  The only nation in the world that eats more meat than we do is Luxembourg.  If the paychecks of American workers were going up fast enough to deal with this increase, it wouldn’t be that big of a deal.  But of course that is not happening.  In an article just last week, I showed that real median household income is a couple thousand dollars lower now than it was during the depths of the last recession.  The middle class is being squeezed, and we are rapidly getting to the point where burgers are going to be considered a “luxury” item.

The following chart was posted by the Economic Policy Journal on Wednesday, and it incorporates the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  When I first saw it, I was rather stunned.  I knew that the price of ground beef had become rather outrageous in my local grocery stores, but I had no idea just how much damage had been done over the past six years…

Beef Price - Economic Policy Journal

The biggest reason why the price of ground beef has been going up is the fact that the U.S. cattle herd has been shrinking.  It shrunk seven years in a row, and on January 1st, 2014 it was the smallest that it had been since 1951.

The good news is that the decline appears to have stopped, at least for the moment.  According to the Wall Street Journal, the size of the U.S. cattle herd actually increased by 1 percent last year…

The U.S. cattle herd expanded in 2014 for the first time in eight years, offering hope to consumers that beef prices could start to subside after soaring to a series of records.

 

The nation’s cattle supply increased 1% in the year through Jan. 1 to 89.8 million head, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Agriculture Department, reversing a steady decline fueled by prolonged drought in the southern U.S. Great Plains and industry consolidation that encouraged many ranchers to thin herds.

But an increase of 1 percent is just barely going to keep up with the official population growth rate.  If you factor in illegal immigration, we are still losing ground.

And if we have another major drought in cattle country this summer, the cattle herd is going to start shrinking again.

In addition, the price of food overall has been steadily rising for years.  Here is a chart that I shared the other day

Presentation Food Inflation

It boggles the mind that the Federal Reserve can claim that we are in a “low inflation” environment.  Anyone that goes grocery shopping feels the pain of these rising prices every time that they go to the store.

In the list that I put together yesterday, I included the following statistic…

Almost half of all Americans (47 percent) do not put a single penny out of their paychecks into savings.

One of the primary reasons why so many Americans are not saving any money is because many families simply cannot save any money.  Their paychecks are stagnant while the cost of living just keeps going up and up.

There simply are not enough “good jobs” out there anymore.  Our economy continues to bleed middle class jobs and the competition for the jobs that remain is quite intense.

Do you know what the two most common occupations in America today are?

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they are “retail sales clerk” and “cashier”.

And of course neither of those “occupations” pays even close to what is required to support a middle class family.

On average, a retail sales clerk makes $24,020 a year, and a cashier makes $20,670 a year.

Because the quality of our jobs has declined so much, there are millions of American families today in which both the mother and the father are working multiple jobs in a desperate attempt to make ends meet each month.

But don’t worry, the Federal Reserve says that we are nearly at “full employment“, and Barack Obama says that everything is going to be just fine.

Actually, the truth is that things are about to get a lot worse.  At this point, we are even getting pessimistic numbers out of the Federal Reserve.  Just this week we learned that the Fed is now projecting that economic growth for the first quarter of 2015 will be barely above zero

From almost 2.5% GDP growth expectations in February, The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has now collapsed its estimates of Q1 GDP growth to just 0.2%plunging from +1.4% just 2 weeks ago. The reality of plunging capex and no decoupling is starting to rear its ugly head in the hard data and as the sun warms things up, weather will start to lose its ability to sway sentiment.

We are at a turning point.  The bubble of false stability that we have been living in is rapidly coming to an end, and when people start to realize that another great economic crisis is coming there is going to be a lot of panic.

And as far as food prices go, they are just going to keep taking a bigger chunk out of all of our wallets.

As high as prices are already, the truth is that your food dollars are never going to go farther than they do right now.

So let us hope for the best, but let us also get prepared for the worst.

 

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Fri, 03/27/2015 - 20:50 | 5935990 JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

I can hear the wookie now ... "Let them eat soy!"

 

 

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:01 | 5936006 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Don't worry... with lumber prices in a steep decline we can soon expect some price relief as the monocrystalline cellulose (sawdust) content of your burger soars...

https://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2014/07/02/yes-theres-wood-pulp-in-burgers...

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:58 | 5936105 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

If you want to do it all yourselves, butchering equipment and supplies include a cold place to hang the carcass, gun, hoist, spreader, hanging hooks, skinning knife, butcher knife, sharpening stone, steel hone, shovel and garden for the offal, butcher saw, meat grinder, several large plastic buckets, butcher paper, freezer tape, and a marking pen.  Alternatively, load the heifer or steer in the trailer and driver to the butchers.  Your meat will be correctly aged, butchered, and ready in a few weeks.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-31/hedgelesshorsemans-list-things-...

 

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:07 | 5936120 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

 

 

Fuck ground beef! How much has the cost of "ground-brains" increased in our colleges & unversities... that is the REAL disgrace. The Libs gouge up the prices in order to pay crazy tenured professors exorbitant salaries to "brain-wash" our own kids against us.

And all with the express purpose of creating mind-numbed DemoCrap voters for electing and re-electing the likes of gross incompetents like Barack Hussain Obozo.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:21 | 5936155 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

It takes both a right and a left hand to mold a moron.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:01 | 5936238 Four chan
Four chan's picture

it hasnt, the dollar has lost half of its value aginst it. the meat is the same lb

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 07:36 | 5936606 negative rates
negative rates's picture

And what's your point? They took the pink slime out silly, of course it's going to cost more, but you now pay less for healthcare so it's a wash.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 06:21 | 5936558 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

That is the real issue, right there.

We need a third hand or alternately, hands are not part of the solution.  Hands are a distraction from the real solution: self sufficiency

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:22 | 5936048 pickupthatcan
pickupthatcan's picture

I bought a 1/2 hp electric grinder years ago.  When I see briskets on sale, I'll buy a few and grind them up myself.  Add a few slices of bacon and I've got great tasting hambuger meat.  You can also control the fat content.  After two briskets, the grinder has paid for itself.

In my part of the country, feral pigs are abundant.  Almost free and the meat is awesome.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:09 | 5936126 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

You live in a suburb of DC?

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:36 | 5936287 fudge
fudge's picture

he's long pig

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:08 | 5936122 blowing winter
blowing winter's picture

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 09:09 | 5936682 Chauncey Gardener
Chauncey Gardener's picture

Let them eat Wookie Chow.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 10:09 | 5936760 Lincolns Mullet
Lincolns Mullet's picture

Burgers should all be $1.  Its an American Right.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 11:27 | 5936890 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

deflation in what you want

inflation in what you need

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 20:52 | 5935994 Zandalf
Zandalf's picture

There's always arugula!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:02 | 5936021 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Looks like tube steak smothered in underwear for you poor motherfuckers!
My local grass-fed beef has only increased slightly.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 20:58 | 5936012 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

1.2M for a run down house, 50% over asking sold in two weeks. Buyer paid all cash. 

http://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/This-San-Franci...

This time it's really different.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:09 | 5936026 Osmium
Osmium's picture

You want $799,000 for this house?  That's robbery, I'll give you 1.2 million and not a PENNY less!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:20 | 5936041 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

The Yemen war just got hotter than inflation in beef:

BREAKING:Large blasts in ’s as Saudi-led coalition bombs ‘missile base’

http://rt.com/news/244185-yemen-conflict-gulf-rebels/

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:23 | 5936045 Northern Lights
Northern Lights's picture

A couple years ago I could buy 475 grams of bacon for $3.50

Today it's $6.99 and they made the package smalled to 375 grams, else you'd be paying $9

They had these 6 packs of jumbo hot dogs in the "mystery meat" section of the freezer.  They wanted $5.99 for those.  I thought it outrageous!!!  I stood there quietly as a couple of shoppers joined me at the freezer.  Both picked up the package of hot dogs. The dude put it down almost immediately.  The second, a lady, looked at the package for 15 seconds before she too put it back.

Since when did mystery meat become "steak tartar"???????

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:41 | 5936075 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"today, I bought 2 kilos of green tomatoes at the State-run store with my ration card"

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:21 | 5936267 mrpxsytin
mrpxsytin's picture

Your price increases are largely due to artificial meat shortages enforced by the cartels that run your meat industry. If your cartels allowed free trade with Australia and New Zealand your meat prices would go down dramatically and your quality would improve. But Amerikans are morons so what can you do?

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 06:28 | 5936560 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Thats a long way for a cow to swim.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:32 | 5936060 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

Just stop eating the shit.  It's full of radionuclides like all meat on the planet.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:37 | 5936068 nightwish
nightwish's picture

What happened to all the regular zh commenters? wheres wilson, mdb and others? this place has almost an entirely different tone compared to last year. glad to see this thread with oldies at least

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 08:43 | 5936653 SmedleyButlersGhost
SmedleyButlersGhost's picture

you've been aroundfor 24 weeks???

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 10:00 | 5936746 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Wilson is still around but I think under a different name. His stuff is my kind of crazy. MDB comes back every now and then. But, yeah, things change.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 10:47 | 5936814 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Beware the ones have have to change their handle. That should tell you something.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:42 | 5936077 YouThePeople
YouThePeople's picture

The price of meat has just gone up

An' yer ol' lady has just gone down...

https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZbDbF1DONVE

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:53 | 5936092 Trucker Glock
Trucker Glock's picture

The amount of wasted food in the U.S. is rather sickening.  This came to mind the other day when I saw a couple packages of beef tenderloin steaks marked "Reduced for Quick Sale."  The steaks had browned in the package and had no chance of being bought.  Once packaged, the price should drop daily.  Maybe it would sell at a lower price before becoming unsellable.  Fuck, I don't have a solution to food waste.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:20 | 5936152 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

I work in a restaurant.  You should see what people waste.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:39 | 5936290 mrpxsytin
mrpxsytin's picture

Let's take 20 steaks. In the first scenario I try to sell 10 steaks for $12 each. I manage to sell 8 in 5 days and have to discard 2 for total revenue of $96. My markup on steak is 50% (this is a common markup for steaks), so I end up with a profit of $16.

In the second scenario I reduce the selling price by $2 (~16% of the original price) per day. On day 1 I sell 2 steaks for a profit of $8. On day 2 I sell 2 steaks for $10 for a profit of $4. On day 3 I sell 4 steaks at zero profit. On day 4 I sell one steak for a loss of $2 and the last steak I sell on day 5 for a loss of $4. In this scenario I sell all 10 steaks for a profit of $6;  a decrease of 62.5% on scenario one.

So I will waste as much steak as I goddamned please!!!!!!!!

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 11:22 | 5936878 Joe Camel
Joe Camel's picture

In the situation you described above, I disagree with the use of your term "food waste".  The retail outlet made an incorrect quanitity purchase in relation to the price of the product and anticipated customer demand.  The retail outlet did not purchase the beef with the intent of the product to deteriorate in quality and ultimately become useless while it was in its possession.

I would argue that "food waste" is better applied to situations where producers of food incorrectly produce too much edible food that is unable to be delivered or sold to food consumers.  Some of the underlying causes of food waste in this country are government subsidies enticing overproduction of food and the distance between food producers and consumers.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:54 | 5936094 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Q: What do Jewish Women & food prices have in common?

A: Neither ever go down.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 09:53 | 5936739 Keyboard Kommando
Keyboard Kommando's picture

What's the difference between Santa Claus and a Jew?

Santa goes DOWN the chimney!

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 13:39 | 5937231 Pareto
Pareto's picture

you know you're goin to hell for that dontchya....

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:20 | 5936101 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Pretty silly to use one commodity price to evaluate inflation.

Drought reduced herds of beef.  Price has gone up until herds are restored.

Pork prices also went up because of disease wiping out the young pigs.

Both are more than offset by lower NG prices for about a year and the recent oil price decline.

It is easy to find hyperventilating idiots writing stuff on the internet.  They one were limited to speaking loudly on the street corner.

More interesting and informative is another article posted withing a few hours of this scare tactic trash.

Commodity prices have been falling since early 2011, reflective of slowing global demand and rising inventories

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:29 | 5936278 Travelin Man
Travelin Man's picture

Agree completely with your sentiments... I outlined the same ideas below before seeing this post.  I have a pretty good understanding of the current situation for production agriculture in the U.S.  Makes me question the validity of some of the precious metal, etc hyperbole that I admittedly don't have the same understanding of.

 

 

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 10:16 | 5936769 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but it is also pretty silly to think you can actually do anything without calories available for consumption.

7+ billion people and growing, all competing for a better quality of life and all the resources/calories that make that possible...

Americans are pretty spoiled in the bigger picture and it is also silly to think that growth can continue forever and ever in a finite biosphere.

get those fusion reactors online bitch and fire up the deep space rockets!!

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 11:03 | 5936830 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

 LawsofPhysics  Yes, but it is also pretty silly to think you can actually do anything without calories available for consumption.

---

And what make you think that calories aren't available for consumption? There are plenty of calories for consumption in DIFFERENT FORMS. My old lady made a cake with plenty of calories. I have hardly touched it because I don't want those type of calories But they are available to me. Do those calories have to come strictly from beef? Where I am at, pork prices have stabilized and are slowly coming down and I don't eat much pork.

I have moved onto more of a chicken and vegetarian diet. I get plenty of calories. I also eat lots of eggs in various forms.

Calories are for burning and considering the obesity of so many people, they could do with less calories and more exercise.

Yea, you are right that many westerners are spoiled. The worst ones are those that don't actually hunt for their protein. But their are calories out there. But it won't be for the cannon fodder of an apocalyptic environment.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 10:31 | 5936791 venturen
venturen's picture

beef production is up in almost every state...except Cali....something tells me hedgefunds are involved....anything that move irrationally usually has someone trying to destroy an industry. They come....milk it for what they can....then they move on...leaving destruction in their path!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 21:58 | 5936103 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

 

 

If you factor in illegal immigration…

What does illegals have to do with …. never mind, anyways, so you mean illegals contribute to retails hamburger sales, pay gas tax when they drive to the store to buy the hamburger and pay sales tax on the BBQ to cook the aforementioned hamburger – go figure.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:15 | 5936121 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Do you have any idea how much oil it takes to raise a single head of cattle on a modern factory ranch? Burgers are "going to be a luxury item"? What fucking planet is this person from? Beef has always been a luxry item outside the few places where it was both possible and profitable to raise cattle, and even then, it was not a large part of the diet because it was never economical to raise enough to cattle to make it the main meat component of a diet.

As for hamburgers, they're an entirely modern culinary invention, because most of the ingredients could never have been acquired in a fresh state at the same time, if they were available at all.

What the fuck am I even doing arguing, most of this country thinks meat grows in individual saran-wrapped styrofoam packages somewhere behind the butcher counter or order window.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 10:18 | 5936770 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, spot on.  Americans are very spoiled when it comes to the bigger picture. They better hope that their trade partners keep accepting all those paper promises...

 

tick tock motherfuckers...

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:19 | 5936148 Travelin Man
Travelin Man's picture

I am an approximate 7 year lurker to Zerohedge and this is my first post.  I finally felt compelled to comment on this article.  To imply that the current price of beef is some sort of indication of inflation or deflation is misleading at best.  I am a farmer in with an understanding of the cattle market.  This has nothing to do with inflation/deflation and everything to do with the perceived supply/demand situation from a shrunken U.S. cow herd.

By the logic of the author of this article, we are in the midst of massive deflation depending on the commodity you want to pick.  In addition to cattle I am in an "I" state raising corn and soybeans.  The prices of these have halved since the highs several years back.  As mentioned above it is pointless and misleading to single out the current price situation of beef and somehow relate it to the current inflation/deflation outlook.  I actually expect the price of live and feeder cattle to drop significantly sometime late in 2015.  Proceed with caution.

 

RJ

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:39 | 5936271 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Travelin Man,

If you insist on posting rational and accurate information you will accumulate many "down votes."  It disturbes the vibe for the end-of-the-world nutters.

It would really, really, really get the nutters wound up if the graph in the article had plotted the price of beef in relation to their hoard of gold.  Gold down 1/3, beef up 1/3, they would be starving for certain.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:30 | 5936280 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

I will take the non-political approach in regards to the author of the article.

What they should do is a little research on cattle ranching the lazy mfers. Take a look into the input cost of raising cattle. Explosion in good pasture land price per acre, say go buy 600 or so acres at 2-3 grand per acre to run a 100 head of pairs, fence it or keep fencing repaired. If your running Grand Dads place, get a good attorney or two, the .gub is trying to figure out how to steal it from you when he passes on.

Then your winter holding cost if you don't have your own hay property. 300- 400 rolls to hold over till spring grass comes on. Make sure you work a job, then feed half the night to pay the tractor note you need to put out hay as well. Let alone diesel cost. Then be Mr. Mc giver fixing all the shit yourself. Then I'm sure, listen to some bitch at the house when done well after dark if your not lucky enough to have a mate that helps you in the field. Usually it's faster to go feed by yourself with no agrivation. Make sure you have a good set of fencing traps, squeeze shoot set up also to work the cattle twice per year. Better have a couple good horses you have to feed, horse trailer, oh and a descent 3/4 ton with cattle trailer to move your stock when needed, add that diesel cost here also. Shit, let's don't get into the taxes on the acreage each year also, the fucking authors dull pencil would be getting hot at this point on those horrid ground beef prices, the fucking idiot.

For shit sakes, let's don't even get into the worthless EPA gestopo regulations on exempt rain water in ditches or the nasty methane rules on FARTING ground beef on 4 hoofs. I shit you not, look it up. They want to tax FARTING cattle due to methane release. So donote heavily to the cattle mans association to fight the Liberal Technocrats, k. Cha-Ching....

So, MR. Author, the next time you eat a steak or a fucking hamburger, I hope you choke on it Nut Sack! Or at minimum, get a chopped off blue eyed oyster set of calf nuts some pissed butcher threw in the meat grinder your chewing on.....

It's whats for dinner! Now eat your peas......

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 06:40 | 5936568 cossack55
cossack55's picture

It is rather amazing the number of folks who don't know a freakin' thing about food production.  Would like to see a "school to farm/ranch" week added to the 9th grade curriculum (old enough to do some heavy labor) either in spring planting or fall harvest time frame.  Nice rant. 

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 04:30 | 5936513 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Pork prices would be a better indicator, since the hog market responds 4-5 times faster to demand than the beef market.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 13:09 | 5937151 Travelin Man
Travelin Man's picture

I agree that pork prices may be a better indicator than beef.  However, the hog market rallied heavily from the PED scare in 2014.  When this was brought closer to being under control and/or the production was ramped up from the high prices, the market was crushed in recent months.  The dynamics are different for the cattle market, as you cannot ramp up production for mama cows in the same fashion that you can for hogs.  We haven't found a way to completely confine mama cow and calf yet... hopefully never, but I fear for the day when my open pasture can't compete with the frankencows they will try to bring into confinement buildings.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 10:04 | 5936751 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Yeah, I'd say oil is a lot bigger item in the inflation/deflation watch. I personally think the credit bubble has popped and we are in a period of credit deflation.

That said, I'm happy hamburger is over priced, hopefully no one will buy the toxic shit.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 11:15 | 5936827 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

No he is saying we are NOT in deflation we are in an inflation.  The Deflation argument is absurd.  Whether we define deflation as a decrease in the money supply or lower prices its B.S.  We are having inflation in the money supply and  in the cost of goods we consume.  The producers in many cases are seeing deflation in the prices they are recieving.  Its really Clusterf(uck)lation because those creating the products are getting less for their efforts to produce goods that we need to keep the pipelines full.  Posted a piece a few weeks back on farm income and how farm income is projected  42% less than 2 years ago. So yes some producer prices are declining IMO this is being managed by gubmint thru the commodity exchanges just like PM's.  I work some in the edible oil markets and they have crushed those Exchange prices but the price from the processors has leveled off.  The basis has risen due to true demand and resistence to selling by farmers and elevators.  So net is prices have been relatively flat even though the CBOT prices have declined.

 The drop in farm income is a combination of less production (cattle/fruits/veg)  and lower commodity prices(Grains/oilseeds) and land rents. So yes they are seeing deflated revenues much like the producers of commodities from oil to PM's to grapes to coal.  Problem is due to the Revenue needs of the middle men, heathcare costs, and screaming increases in taxation,  the American Consumer is not seeing deflation like the commodity Producers are.  This is the perfect Hell longer term as we are shutting down production in so many commodities and services because they aren't making money.(Atlas Shrugged Effect)  Sooner or later this is going to create more shortages especially if Ca does not get some massive amounts or precip.  The crashing of oil prices is helping somewhat but that brings its own baggage of default and financial crashes.  Supply wil contract but not as fast as demand destruction for a bit longer.

We look at what we pay for all foodstuffs and perhaps have seen some leveling off at higher prices, we see lower gas price as the most visible sign of deflation, we see no return on our savings accounts,  higher costs for home electric, gas, water, phone, and trash in spite of lower commodity costs.  Massively higher costs for all forms of insurances (perhaps the victims of ZIRP) and regulation,  entertainment, services,  home prices, and of course TAXES!(big brother rolls on), and home prices again inspite of demand/rationing and destruction.  These are a bigger counter than oil price deflation as pointed out on Zero Hedge many times.

So the deflation story is highly selective and mainly just propaganda.  Wages are vastly underperforming inflation and coupled with massive un and under employment should be creating deflation combined with the commodity busts  but its just not happening.  Cue the reasons above.  The next round of money gushing will obliterate the deflation straw man.  The deflation mantra laid to rest by any definition.  As for now its just another fairy tale set up as useful  propaganda.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 13:15 | 5937165 Travelin Man
Travelin Man's picture

I agree with most of what you are saying here.  I am on board with the loss of purchasing power of the average consumer, federal reserve qe4evaaaa, etc, etc.  My point was simply that it is absurd to call out the movement of one commodity and scream inflation in the same way that it is absurd to watch the price of corn cut in half and scream deflation.  It's likely going to be a shit sandwich all the way around....lower standard of living for most, huge gains for the few people close enough to the government tit,

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 18:46 | 5937912 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

Ok the singling out of one commodity and basing his case on that is a bit extreme Micheal probably feels he has made the case for inflation over time.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:23 | 5936160 robnume
robnume's picture

Wonder how much Soylent Green is going to cost to eat. Anybody got any numbers on that? Go long on Soylent Green!

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 06:34 | 5936564 css1971
css1971's picture

In the book, it was solent steaks. mmmm.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:24 | 5936165 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Maybe if the Fed is successful at their inflation targets people will be payng $20/lb for 80% ground beef. 

 

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:28 | 5936172 DrData02
DrData02's picture

Meat is for the elite!

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 04:23 | 5936508 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Protein, the new currency.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:39 | 5936187 q99x2
q99x2's picture

How can you have any pudding?

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 22:39 | 5936188 q99x2
q99x2's picture

How can you have any pudding?

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 08:20 | 5936632 Chauncey Gardener
Chauncey Gardener's picture

Nice Pink Floyd reference!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:04 | 5936245 baldski
baldski's picture

This slays me! The author documents ground beef prices have doubled. Do you hear any FAST FOOD chain complaining? Not a peep out of MCD's or BurgerKing or anybody else. But just hint at raising the minimum wage and the fast food CEO's start running 20 mph around the building with their hair on fire. What the fuck gives with these assholes? 15 dollars/hour minimum is  overdue! Strike!

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:11 | 5936252 henry chucho
henry chucho's picture

The last time I cooked a pound of 80% Lean Ground in a skillet,I ended up with a patty the size of a Reeses Peanut Butter Cup,and a pint of some foul liquid,that I couldn't even flush down the toilet,because the shit congealed into an oil slick..

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:48 | 5936298 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Your onto something here, you should file for a 4 Billion Dollar, zero interest, non-recourse Oblama Green Energy Liberal Technocrat Loan.

After years of living large of the free cash, when all else fails, run your sink water hot, then wash it down. The heat will keep it from looking like a good 4 a.m. Loogey In the shitter......

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 07:06 | 5936583 cornfritter
cornfritter's picture

Add a couple of scrambled humming bird eggs and a Monsanto franken bisquit, and charge $10 for a full meal deal (coffee and condiments extra).  A 15% gratuity will be added to your ticket for your convenience.

Eat At Joes :-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt_Y-CThgNs

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:37 | 5936289 fzrkid
fzrkid's picture

I say we grind politiians and economist to offset the rise in beef prices.

 

Though I expect it to have a taste similar to rat shit.. (not that I have ever eaten rat shit, I have smelled it)

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 06:42 | 5936569 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Market it to upscale DC and NY restaurants.

Fri, 03/27/2015 - 23:44 | 5936294 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Yeah, but the price of roadkill has fallen by half, so it hedonics out of the CPI.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 01:07 | 5936398 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Bought a regular cheeseburger at MickeyD's yesterday. Up to $1.09 from $1.00 last week. Looks like I will go back to zapping Veggie Burgers in the microwave. After adding sales tax at McD's I can eat cheaper at home.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 02:51 | 5936471 Wolf in the Wilds
Wolf in the Wilds's picture

I am curious.  How many of you guys feel that your income is buying more compared with 2007 and how many feel its buying less.  That is the easiest way to tell if there is inflation or deflation. I'll bet quite a bit that most would feel it is buying less. 

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 04:10 | 5936503 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Yes I believe my income is going a lot further now than in 2007, of course there has had to be some concessions, but, it is amazing how quickly you can get used to Rice burgers, Pasta and potatoes and of course my health has improved dramatically since the only beverage I can afford to drink is water.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 04:16 | 5936507 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Australian US, cost of living comparison, make of it what you will.

  http://www.liveinvictoria.vic.gov.au/living-in-victoria/cost-of-living/c...

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 05:01 | 5936524 mrpxsytin
mrpxsytin's picture

Amazing when you consider how much higher our wages are and how much more abundant our public amenities are. Amerikans really have got it bad.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 06:44 | 5936570 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Just look at who our "leaders" are.  Come on 1789.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 07:21 | 5936590 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Yes , I thought US prices would be a lot cheaper, we really are in the lucky country.....at least until our realestate market implodes.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 10:37 | 5936802 Prober
Prober's picture

Surprised how much more fish costs down under - have the chinks already depleted the vast southern ocean that surrouds oz ???

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 04:58 | 5936523 Tekrunner
Tekrunner's picture

The second chart posted shows an average yearly increase of about 2.5%. That's not exactly a high inflation environment...

The problem in the US is not high inflation. It's stagnating wages.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 05:22 | 5936531 Batman11
Batman11's picture

Here is a good report, if you can wade through it (84 pages), and brings together the various big problems I have spotted in recent times.

1) The end of the credit super cycle and the bursting of the financial bubble (stage 1 - 2008)

2) The hollowing out of Westren economies with globalisation and outsourcing

3) The manipulation of official figures. Each change is small but in the end (now) you have meaningless numbers.

4) The end of cheap energy, if there was cheap oil to meet demand no one would be drilling shale (temporary blip at the moment)

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf

 

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 06:31 | 5936561 css1971
css1971's picture

Ground beef? Substitution man! They should be eating sawdust by now.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 08:20 | 5936634 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

vegetarianism may be unavoidable in a few short years

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 08:22 | 5936637 Prober
Prober's picture

"Each year, the average American consumes approximately 270 pounds of meat."

From a nutritional perspective, meat provides protein, but Americans consume FAR MORE meat than necessary to provide sufficient protein. In fact, Americans would be better off from a health perspective if they consumed MUCH LESS meat, especially ground beef, and that would bring the prices down.

Yes, I know that beef, can taste good and I enjoy it too, but I eat beef only about once per month. I am eating even less after I saw the details of how steers are locked in pens up to their chests in bacteria rich feces for months on end while they are stuffed with GMO dent corn to fatten them for market - that immersion in their own waste is what contaminates the meat in the slaughter process - UGHHH !

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 09:01 | 5936667 d edwards
d edwards's picture

The corrupt, deceptive 0bamao regime early on re-jiggered how the key stats are figured: CPI, GDP, "employment numbers" etc.

These numbers are totally worthless and are used to lie to the people.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 09:09 | 5936681 d edwards
d edwards's picture

PS: Revenues (taxes) to the fed gov't continue at RECORD HIGH LEVELS.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 09:43 | 5936719 Prober
Prober's picture

and the confiscation and redistribution of earnings will continue to ever higher levels unless and until Americans go to WADC with their gummint realignment tools and change the trajectory

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 09:41 | 5936717 Prober
Prober's picture

No doubt, but the anti-America ideology of rev wrong + obomination does not change the scientific realities of food production in the USA, eg GMO, feed-lots vs open-range, absurdly high usage of hormones & antibiotics on livestock, etc, etc. Eat less beef and you will be better off in terms of health + $.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 09:41 | 5936715 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

In Ottawa CANADA ground beef goes for $4.50 per pound at the cheapest grocery store. The more expensive grocery stores sell it for at least $1 or $2 dollars more per pound. When I complained to the grocer a couple of years back I was told that the rate was going up because of increased fuel costs on transport trucks. Since the price per barrel of oil has gone down there has been no corresponding decreases in the cost of beef. The supply/demand horseshit on availability is pure bunk. Frankly, with our dollar shorted by Goldman Sachs, and the price of food much higher in CANADA, as opposed to the USA, I'm just about ready to throw in the towel on "the cost of living". In point of fact, we are looking at the "cost of dying" instead of the "cost of living". In CANADA it cost a minimum of $10k to kick-the-can.

 

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 09:58 | 5936743 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

drought, get used to it.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 10:21 | 5936774 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

Vincent: Want some bacon?

Jules: No man, I don't eat pork.

Vincent: Are you Jewish?

Jules: Nah, I ain't Jewish, I just don't dig on swine, that's all.

Vincent: Why not?

Jules: Pigs are filthy animals. I don't eat filthy animals.

Vincent: Bacon tastes gooood. Pork chops taste gooood.

Jules: Hey, sewer rat may taste like pumpkin pie, but I'd never know 'cause I wouldn't eat the filthy motherfucker. Pigs sleep and root in shit. That's a filthy animal. I ain't eat nothin' that ain't got sense enough to disregard its own feces.

Vincent: How about a dog? Dogs eats its own feces.

Jules: I don't eat dog either.

Vincent: Yeah, but do you consider a dog to be a filthy animal?

Jules: I wouldn't go so far as to call a dog filthy but they're definitely dirty. But, a dog's got personality. Personality goes a long way.

Vincent: Ah, so by that rationale, if a pig had a better personality, he would cease to be a filthy animal. Is that true?

Jules: Well we'd have to be talkin' about one charming motherfuckin' pig. I mean he'd have to be ten times more charmin' than that Arnold on Green Acres, you know what I'm sayin'?

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 10:23 | 5936776 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

I buy my meat at Costco...it's almost comical how much cheaper pork is than beef. There is no fucking way I'm spending 3x for my protein.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 10:23 | 5936777 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

...besides, bacon tastes good....

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 12:14 | 5937000 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

I'm sorry but that is a retarded conversation and post. Stay on the farm and off the internet.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 13:46 | 5937246 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

Lighten up. The article is semi-retarded itself. 

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 11:32 | 5936900 One World Mafia
One World Mafia's picture

The cost of my store brand bleach has gone up 50% and the bottle shrunk in half.  After a time they will bring back the old bottle size at a higher price and call it concentrated.  Wash, rinse, repeat.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 12:11 | 5936995 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

How much bleach to you need. I can get name brand bleach Clorox 64 oz jub for 2.50. Off brand is even cheaper.

So if you are paying more, the you are a shitty shopper and should quit bitching.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 11:41 | 5936928 Your Creator
Your Creator's picture

If it's defaltion then why are they shrinking food packages and making you pay the same price for them ?

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 12:05 | 5936965 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Because they are doing what everyone does in a deflationary phase, fight for dollars. They want to take your dollars to cover their debt. Damned be to you and your debt. You are on your own. If it were inflationary, they wouldn't need to  shrink packages, they would just raise prices. And if it were inflationary, workers would be getting wage increases.

Modern day inflationist are so easily deceived. If you study financial market history, it always alternates. Thus the current generation always gets it wrong because they use the most recent (or last major) monetary turmoil as the say all to what is to be. But they end up getting it wrong. Let me simplify it for you.

Deflation - Inflation - Deflation - Inflation - Deflation - Inflation (get the picture?)

The last major shock was inflation of the 1970s. Thus it is the turn of deflation.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 12:59 | 5937131 thecrud
thecrud's picture

I find this true for every consumable not just meat.

Sat, 03/28/2015 - 23:38 | 5938530 Dr_Snooz
Dr_Snooz's picture

It's real simple guys. Your assets are deflating. Your bills are inflating. Put them together and you get a perfect "Goldilocks economy."

Sun, 03/29/2015 - 10:49 | 5939084 BulldogHedgehog
BulldogHedgehog's picture

This has more to do with the massive consolidation of the meat packing industry, the massive cost rise of corn in that time frame that led to a huge culling of the herds of cattle.  Don't think there's causation here, just a coincidence.

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