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Will Greece Call A Referendum On Euro Membership?
The rumor mill was alive Friday morning with reports that the resignation of Greek FinMin Yanis Varoufakis was imminent. Unsurprisingly, the Greek government is out calling the reports “unfounded”:
Via Bloomberg:
- Speculation a long way from reality: Sakellaridis
Although we don’t know exactly what that means, what we do know is that Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann isn’t buying what the Greek government is selling, isn’t enthusiastic about perpetuating the charade by allowing for more room under the ELA cap, and suggested that a “disorderly insolvency” may be a foregone conclusion. Here’s more (again, via Bloomberg):
Weidmann ‘doesn’t buy’ argument Greek debt insurmountable.
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann says he’s against expanding emergency liquidity for Greece, Focus magazine reported, citing an intv.
“When a member country of a currency union decides not to meet its obligations and stops payment to creditors, then a disorderly insolvency can’t be avoided”
New Greek government has “squandered a lot of trust”
There’s “not much time left” to reach solution on Greece
“Greek interest burden relative to economic performance in the current year is lower than Italy, Portugal or Ireland”
Meanwhile, the Germans note that they have no idea what Syriza is likely to come up with:
German govt doesn’t have any information about expected Greek proposals for economic reforms, Finance Ministry spokeswoman Marianne Kothe tells reporters in Berlin.
Impact of Greek proposals will have to be “quantifiable,” in line with euro-area agreements: Kothe.
And it now appears as though the reforms list is indeed ready for review:
- GREEK REFORMS LIST IS READY, GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS
- GREEK DELEGATION FLIES TO BRUSSELS TODAY: GOVT OFFICIAL
So that’s where the situation stands. For their part, UBS isn’t optimistic. “The negotiations between the Greek government and its international partners on the long-stalled Troika review have not progressed well,” the bank notes dryly. UBS goes on to discuss why April is likely to be the toughest month yet for Athens as the government races to find a solution ahead of looming debt payments in July. Here’s more:
Although the government has pledged to present a reform list early next week, we expect negotiations to remain protracted, and given substantial debt service in the coming weeks, we think market sentiment might turn a lot more nervous again in April. This could also trigger further deposit outflows from the Greek banking sector, which is heavily reliant on the Eurosystem's Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA)...
The government's budget position looks increasingly stretched, and sharply lower tax revenues have triggered a steep year-on-year decline in Greece's primary surplus. This has forced the government to resort to increasingly desperate measures to fend off cash shortages...
Given the complicated nature of Greece's fiscal situation and the highly controversial discussions around structural reforms, we would not rule out the list falling short of the Troika's demands and the negotiations proceeding only very slowly. And to keep the pressure on the Syriza government, Greece's European partners are unlikely to grant quick financial relief…
Here’s what the government is up against in terms of financial obligations in the coming days:
At the end of March it will have to mobilize an estimated €1.7bn for salary and pension payments. On 9 April, it faces IMF repayments of SDR360.45m/€457.8m. On 14 and 17 April, respectively, it must roll over T-bills worth €1.4bn and €1.0bn. Most of these are held by Greek banks, but a proportion is reportedly owned by foreign investors, who might not want to stay involved in the T-bill trade; this could make the rolling-over more difficult.
The cash situation does not look good:
And neither does the timing of repayment obligations:
In the end, UBS suggests that the government might well put the whole thing to a popular vote and should Greeks opt to remain in the currency bloc, Syriza could use that as leverage when it comes to securing popular support (or at least acquiescence) for tougher economic reforms:
One of the potential options Syriza might eventually consider could be a popular referendum on Eurozone membership – a step that would obviously involve great risks and uncertainties. But if, presumably, a majority of Greek voters were to endorse Greece's ongoing membership in the monetary union, Syriza could then argue that this will require the government to make unpopular concessions to the "institutions". If this scenario were to materialize, we believe a referendum might be called in late April or early May, once the end-April deadline nears or expires.
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They will not leave the EU, at most maybe get their currency back and still be part of EU. They cant be kicked out of the EU.
Besides I think they will enjoy being a monkey wrench in EU policies.
yup.......no way those bums leave
Who needs EU really? Next up, Turkey, Greece start their own Union...its called...
"Cheesburger, Turkeyburger, Pepsi Union"
Homage to Saturday Night Live
It's all in the tahini sauce.
Based on the fact that they never threaten to leave, add me to the "Syriza plans on reforming the EU" column, rather than the "Grexit" one.
I see the whole thing as Syriza being someone's activation energy to be used as a tool to finish the consolidation that could not be achieved at the polls during the formation of the EU.
Long story short, the world is ruled by TINA "painting people into one corner after another."
you are correct. though it's not membership in the European Union that is at stake, but the membership in the EuroSystem, i.e. the EUR and the ECB, aka eurozone
the difference is between 28 and 19 member countries. I think a near-dozen countries are relevant enough to make this little distinction between the two clubs
sure they are in part enjoying being the monkey wrench. they also get a lot of applause from all the radical left groups throughout the eurozone and the eu
but at the end, the issue is that they really think that a country can print itself to riches. They represent the neo-keynesian point of view, and the other partners the austrian school view
Throw the Greeks out already. Outa EVERYTHING.
But ALL members are required to become part of the Euro-zone in 2020? So why leap from something, only to be dragged back in?
This is what Cameron was telling the British, when he stated he wouldn't opt for a third term, because on 1st April 2017, we become FULLY INTEGRATED into the EU? After this date, we can no longer use Article 50, or Repeal European Communities Act 1972? But we can ask 27 members for permission to hold a Referendum. This is called QMV and the rules have been fixed so we can't get out?
We need 72% [20] to agree and those that do, their populations must total 65% of the Union population?
http://t.co/1HhnvYsoyU
Once this is achieved, we have 'Cities 2020' thrown upon us, which is 'Regionalisation'. We will no longer require 'Councillors', as we will only be 20 regions and certainly wont need 650 MP's, which is why they are pushing TTIP, they have been promised 'positions'?
this is an utter EUR-MYTH. Sweden, for example, exploits a known loop-hole: it technically does not reach a small parameter, and so it's currency is not eligible. problem solved
the UK preferred to have a more straight approach, and "bargained" (aka banged on the table like Mrs Tatcher) an OPT-OUT
no country has to join. and you have to reach anyway first the parameters of eligibility, and nobody can force you to do so
it's a club of sovereigns, for criminy. complete with leaders like Cameron that don't want that too many understand that he is an EuroCrat, too, with a vote in the EU Council
btw, parts of your comment are quite incoherent, or related to British internal matters, including a very strange take on "Regionalisation" and those "councillors"
Oh, so crazy rules are not a problem because we will find a loophole to ignore them and stay legal doing so.
Everything is awesome!
With problem solvers like you...
More balance sheet and technical analysis. look folks, once the earth adopted "mark to model" accounting, none of this is really that useful.
Once you invite a leech relative to stay with you it's tough to get them to leave. Especially if they get free food and shelter as well a bum money off of you ocassionally (bailouts).
Euro citizens may vote against Brussels, however rest assured that in such a case they will repeat the vote until the desired result is obtained. But usually they make sure a vote will never happen. Germany forced the Euro down the populations throat well knowing that they would never had voted for ditching the Dmark for the Euro. You can thank Mr. Kohl for that.
you can thank Mr. Kohl for German ReUnification. which, btw, included a monetary union, that between the D-Mark and the OstMark. oh, and a special tax, which is still being asked for
you can also thank Mr. Kohl for getting lots and lots of French and italian support, against British opposition to the German ReUnification
yes, the Italian and the French governments asked for a return favour. that was the German adoption of the EUR. but I don't expect anybody here to remember the Nineties in Europe
It is amazing how many times this thing can circle the drain...
probably longer than we will live
They were still circling the drain back in the days of the Persian troika.
Call an EU referendum now, right now.
Hopefully enough of the Greek citizens will have realised by now that they have been completely stuffed by TPTB.
There is, never was, any escape from the planned servitude that is built into the pillaging playbook long practised and perfected by the IMF and now being adopted by the EU.
GET OUT NOW, THE PAIN WILL ONLY GET WORSE THE LONGER YOU LEAVE IT BEFORE YOU TELL THE EU TO FUCK OFF.
You need a reality check
After a brutal Nazii occupation and costly resistance war, betrayal by the US and England in 1945 and a disastrous civil war, a crushing dictatorship in the '60's and now a massive depression, no one knows better than the Greeks that this is not a game. The issue that is getting clarified is whether there is any way out without a fight, and do they trust Sariza to lead them in a fight.
If the Troika won't make an offer Sariza can accept on behalf of the Greek people, if they call a referendum and Greece votes to stay in the Eurozone, Syriza will have lost its bargaining power. At that point they must resign and let someone else take the blame for the next round of disaster. And live to fight another day in other ways.
So the issue before the Greek people was and is: Are you ready for the fight of your lives? And will you stand with Syriza if they lead you in this fight? I will be sorry if they vote no, but I won't blame them. But if they vote to leave the Euro and step up to the firing-line they once again take their place as a nation of heroes, and they will need and deserve all of our support.
Greece doesn't need the Euro. Default and return to the Drachma. Pin it to the Ruble. Now that will get the bankers attention! A cheaper currency will boost tourism by several fold which will help the employment situation. A strong currency is the death knell for a country dependent on tourism.
True that. When I visited Greece as a young'un, the currency was the drachma, there was no EU, and everything was dirt cheap. Beers in a disco in Mykonos were less than a dollar. Food was cheap and delicious and all home-made. Heaven.
So leave one fiat and pin it to another? Does anyone see a problem with this?
Varoufakis outside, Katrougalos inside: The systemic propaganda continues unabated and that's good news!
The article you posted IS actually the SYSTEMIC PROPAGANDA. I don't know if you heard it, but Syriza is now the GOVERNMENT.
... there are some people who dogmatically stand against any government because they don't understand that a new government is not necessarily attached to the system of power. This system may fiercely fight any government that is a threat to its interests.
Oh, rly? They're not attached? I didn't know.
Fascist Samara and Golden Dawn pigs get to judge if democraticaly elected governments have strings attached? Crawl now back to the hole provided to the likes of you by the oligarchs that still think that they own Greece. Fuck off!
referendum
grexit
ban the troika
such dramatic, stirring rhetoric
and that's all it is - hot air - bullshit
no action, since they've fully resigned themselves to be a
fEUdal society
They would vote to stay. Their fear of the unknown is still too strong. But they'll get there.
can't resist, I have to post once the full text of this spoof of FinMin Varoufakis from the German ZDF
note the line:
"Our gold reserved are the second largest in the world!
Chorus: Please don’t ask where it came from!"
interesting, eh? Don't ask where it came from... and don't ask where it currently... is
the full video is here on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Afl9WFGJE0M
-----
We are Germans!
We are honest, trustworthy people.
We are hard as steel, tough as leather, and fast as hounds.
Chorus: Always right on time!
We are afraid of nothing.
Some of our most famous national dishes are stuffed pig stomach, blood sausage, and roast horse.
We are known around the world for our beautifully melodic yet easy to learn language and for our world famous sense of humour.
Chorus: Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!
When we speak English, we all sound like Werner Herzog.
We are Germans!
We truly are a fearless bunch of motherfuckers.
Chorus: Varoufakis!
Yes, some of us actually do have sex with our closest relatives.
It’s an ancient german tradition mainly practiced in a region called Saarland.
But that’s another story.
We are Germans!
Our Gross Domestic Product sums up to 3.7 trillion US Dollars
which makes us the fourth largest economy in the world
by far leading in Europe.
Our gold reserves are the second largest in the world!
Chorus: Please don’t ask where it came from!
We are Germans!
We started two world wars and almost won them both.
Chorus: Almost!
We don’t fear death.
Chorus: Varoufakis!
But from off in the distance there comes a man!
Crazed, seeking vengeance against our peaceful land!
Jacket collar raised, on a black motorbike.
He puts the “hell” in Hellenic and wants to take our pride!
Chorus: Yanis Varoufakis!
Chorus: Greek Minister of Awesome!
Chorus: Relentless Varoufakis!
He’s the lost son of Zeus with a heart made of stone!
Go, take all of our savings but, please, leave us alone!
His looks burn like fire, his body screames of sex.
Our Minister of Finance doesn’t even have legs!
His leather jacket is made of skin from German Shepherd puppies.
He feasts on human babies!
Even his wife is smoking hot!
Chorus: Like a playmate from the Eighties!
He doesn’t negotiate, he simply kicks ass.
Chorus: He wants us on our knees!
And we cannot resist him…
Chorus: Help!
…because he is so totally…
Chorus: Help! (in Greek)
…100 percent…
Chorus: Help! (in Greek)
…awesome!
Chorus: Yanis Varoufakis!
Chorus: Greek Minister of OMFG!
Chorus: Maverick Varoufakis!
Every time he smiles, an angel dies.
Oh! Those satin shirts!
Oh! Those merciless eyes!
His armpits taste musky. Half God, half Souvlaki!
He’s Facebook friends with Voldemort and even plays the Bouzouki!
Oh, he’s on the highway to Hellas!
He’s so awesome!
Oh my god! Take him off of us!
Chorus: V for Varoufakis!
The Walking Debt!
His facial expression, bulletproof!
Help! Leave us alone!
Oh, his incredible style! Noooooo!
Caption: Varoufakis saying:
“And stick the finger to German and say well, you can now solve this problem by yourself, right.”
The German gold reserves are a result of the trade surplus (West)Germany had in the 1950ies and 1960ies with the US, that were compensated with gold. Why shouldn´t anyone ask for that? It´s a result of hard work by the Germans and nothing to be ashamed of.
+1 funny that, eh? though some FED officials would have liked to call that "evil currency manipulation"
here is what you do:
don't pay the IMF and watch that Lagarde bitch having a synchromized swimming fit on top of the ECB Draghi fool.
just don't pay the IMF....
Angela will help Greece since Greece is good for our german economy...
like a QE that keeps the Euro down relative to the USD.
Greece is a kind of Euro-Zirp for the german economy...very good for german exports -
that's why Greece will stay in the Eurozone...
However the UK should leave and join the US and leave the european financial centre to Frankfurt,
where it should have been all along.
After all, apart from a financial service industry, what else has England really got ?
and without the European market, what is left of the UK ?
not very much, me thinks...fuck all, zirp, zilch, nada,
and on a long enough timeline stupid anglophile knobs....
will all just drop to zero.
(while Greece and Germany will prevail of course)
WR;)
Die Weiße Rose Angela will help Greece since Greece is good for our german economy...
----
The amound of exports that Greece sends to Germany is miniscule. The troika and Germany only want Greece to stay in the EU because they don't other nations like Italy and Spain to leave the EU - period.
The exports from Germany to Greece are silly too sine Greece is bankrupt. The main export from the EU (or Germany) to Greece is loans which is also an export of misery and debt slavery to Greece. The fact is, if Greece or any other nation leaves the EU, they will still be traded with. But just on different terms.
Greece doesn't have the balls to leave the EU yet. It doesn't have the politicians with balls.
As other posters point out, begging for money, for various reasons and in various ways, is what a servile and subservient people do. (yea, they had their moment in WWII) Why leave the EU, and face the red ink, alone?
In case the Greek nation votes for more torture and financial hardship just to stay in the Euro zone . There would be a lot of opportunities for shrinks to analyze the collective psyche of the Greek people and make a buck !
I would speculate on the content of the official report . Would the shrinks use the following terms " Stockholm syndrome , delusional sense of security , misplaced idea of value in a currency ( the Euro )that is devaluing and considered pure toilet paper ? " What will it be ?
This being the EU, of course, the results won't count.
If Berlin don't veto a clear OUT vote, the Greek army will.
If Greece was going to leave the EU they would have done so already. They're like those poor women you see in an abusive relationship. It's not that they don't know they're being abused, it's just that they're so psychologically scarred they're more scared of the unknown than they are of the abuse they get every night.
The FinMin and his troupe have been highly entertaining and probably hard working, but just not a whole lot to work with here. They are essentially required to have a referendum because it will be the grass roots population that is going to have to commit to their future.
Answer: No