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Greece Prepares To Leave
Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
Speculation and expert comments are thrown around once more – or still – like candy on Halloween. Let me therefore retrace what I’ve said before. Because I think it’s really awfully simple, once you got the underlying factors in place.
But first, if one thing has become obvious after Syriza was elected to form a Greek government on January 25, it’s that the party is not ‘radical’ or ‘extremist’. Those monikers can now be swept off all editorial desks across the world, and whoever keeps using them risks looking like an awful fool.
All Syriza has done to date, when you look from an objective point of view, is to throw out feelers, trying to figure out what the rest of the eurozone would do. And to make sure that whatever responses it got are well documented.
Because of course Greece (through Syriza) is preparing to leave the eurozone. Of course the effects and consequences of such a step are being discussed, non-stop. They would be fools if they didn’t have these discussions. And of course there will be a referendum at some point.
There’s just that one big caveat: Syriza insists on needing a mandate from its voters for everything it does, whether that may be kowtowing to Greece’s EU overlords or walking away from them. At present, however, it doesn’t have a mandate for either of these actions.
The best it can do is to drag out negotiations as much as it can, and let Europe openly assert its perceived superior power over the Greek population as much as it wants to, complete with more iron-fisted demands for austerity, more budget cuts, more asset sales. Tsipras and his people will let this go on until the Greeks are even more fed up with Brussels than they already were when they elected Syriza in the first place.
It’s a subtle game, but it’s the only one open to Tsipras and his crew. Even if they’ve long concluded that trying to negotiate a deal with Germany et al was a lost cause way before talks started, Syriza has to go through the motions until it is confident the people of Greece are ready to vote in a referendum on eurozone membership.
A risky game, since it could bring back ‘the old guard’ of the handful of families that have governed the country for decades and that were willing co-operators with the Troika, but at the same time it’s the only game in town at the moment.
Tsipras needs to explain to the Greek people that the double mandate of staying inside the eurozone and at the same time ending austerity is in fact an empty mandate, because the eurozone refuses to allow it.
He needs to explain that this means the eurozone refuses to recognize the democratic values of one of its member states, voting to change policy. Brussels is in effect telling the Greek people on a daily basis that they don’t matter. That’s what Tsipras has to make clear, and then he can call the referendum.
It should be obvious that this whole mandate question changes potential actions by Athens to a huge degree. But from what I read every day, it doesn’t seem to be. Even within Tsipras’ own support base, perhaps some don’t understand what is going on. Either that or they’re part of the strategy. Judge for yourself:
Greek Crisis Nears A Turning Point
Stathis Kouvelakis, who teaches political theory at King’s College in London and is a member of Syriza’s central committee, says the party has to face up to the reality of its recent retreat on its election pledges and the nature of the forces arrayed against it. In particular, Kouvelakis notes the successive steps taken by the ECB to restrict the flow of liquidity to the Greek economy, shutting down or limiting Greek access to various types of ECB financing.
“It should be clear, however, that these moves would bring about a dynamic that would breach fundamental constraints of the monetary union and would inevitably lead to the exit from it,” Kouvelakis wrote in his latest post at Jacobin. “In any case, the ECB’s relentless blackmail with its provision of liquidity places onto the agenda every day the issue of regaining sovereignty over monetary policy.” It was the stranglehold that prompted Tsipras in a recent interview with Der Spiegel to refer to the ECB “still holding onto the rope that is around our necks.”
But Kouvelakis argues that covering over the issues by renaming the troika “the institutions” or by using weasel words like “creative ambiguity” is not going to solve the problem. The initial euphoria over Syriza’s victory has quickly faded, but it can be revived, he says, if the party faces reality. “In order for this to happen, however, the horns of battle have to blow again, and the ensuing struggle has to be waged with all due seriousness and determination, not with PR stunts and rhetorical contortions.”
He cited the widely quoted words from Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis earlier this month before the Greek Parliament, when he said “the country is at war, a social and a class war with the lenders” and that in this war “we will not go like cheerful scouts willing to continue the policies of the memorandum.” This is the kind of talk the world needs to hear from Greek officials, Kouvelakis says, “not the language of facile optimism that creates illusions and causes confusion that tomorrow may prove costly.”
Kouvelakis reasons from a standpoint that is not covered by Syriza’s present mandate. He at least should know this. Tsipras cannot afford to be seen by the Greek population as the man who hasn’t done all he could to keep the country in the eurozone while negotiating an end to austerity. It makes no difference at this point what his personal ideas are on the issue.
Kouvelakis does choose to let his personal opinions prevail. If Tsipras would do the same, a referendum would be much riskier for Syriza. The party was elected to represent its austerity-weary voters, not the subjective opinions of its leaders.
If Tsipras and Varoufakis should elect to give in to Brussels and Berlin, that decision would still need to be put before the people to vote on, because it would mean a prolongation of austerity. And that is not the mandate.
By the same token, if the leadership decides an exit is the only option, and that further negotiations are hopeless because Europe won’t accept anything else than strapping the proud Greek people in a straitjacket, that too will have to be put before a vote.
Of course Syriza, like any other government, keeps track of opinion polls, but they know there will come a moment when a referendum can no longer be postponed no matter what the polls say. In that, Greece is living up to its glorious past as the cradle of democracy.
And that makes it all the more cruel that the country has been ruled for such a long time by anything but a democratic system. Maybe we can say the circle is round. But the connection that closes the circle is still very fragile, and nobody knows that better than Alexis Tsipras.
Still, make no mistake: of course they’re preparing to leave.
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So, just leave already.
The protective walls of collective (and personal) denial crumble, they do not collapse in one piece.
>>>> grow a pair and F@#K the banksters !
>>>> lay down, lube up, & curl up in fetal position .
hmmmm let's see bullet to the head or a few million bucks in a swiss account and the "fetal position"........hmmmmmmmmmm I'll take door number two Monty and life
... Greece prepares to leave…
All Greek EU officals, before leaving, should take a huge collective diarrhea dump right in the middle of the EU cafeteria. ;-)
Looney
Leaving means clearing up their own mess. And that will include the dump in the cafeteria.
BTW pretty shitty place that cafeteria
Greece can just leave?
Why couldn't the Greek boy leave home?
Because he couldn't get his father off his back, and was afraid to leave his brother's behind.
The Greeks are going nowhere.
<--- Greece is leaving in 5..4..3...2...
<--- Iran will have nukes... NUKES I tell yaz!!! in 5...4...3...2...
Horseshit! They are going nowhere unless they are tossed out. Just like stray animals at your door they will stay till the last crumb they can get has been delivered and even then they are hard to get rid of.
The Greeks are a once a strong society brought low by their dependence on Socialism combined with the corrupt banking system that is strangling all of Western society. But mainly Socialism; it is just the simple greed that is brought on by everyone being on the wagon and no one pulling.
Greece will just be the first quasi-large country to bite the bullet if they do get kicked. I personally do not think they will go anywhere. There will be a last minute compromise that will be basically the same terms they had going into this current episode of this ongoing saga. Of course the press in all countries involved will convince their people that a major concession, thus a major victory for the political entites involved, has been made and even though not one SINGLE SOLITARY FUCKING THING will have changed everyone involved will play their role and the charade will continue for another small period of time and we will watch this horseshit play out again.
World war or total global economic implosion are the only way we will see this current episode of world history change. But even though it will change we don't know if it will be for the better or worse nor how many of us will be alive on the other side.
Who can blame the Greeks for wanting to leave? The whole EU is a giant sinking ship!
http://www.MrDryOut.com
As is the U.S. And most "civilized" countries who believe that socialism and printing money is the answer.
"... socialism and printing money is the answer...."
FOR THE 1%.
IF THE 1% DID NOT BENEFIT THEN IT WOULD NOT EXIST.
They have to leave. They can't sell debt. They can not attract investment from Western Banksters due to nationalization fears and default threats. And their credit is being downgraded from junk to pure hot garbage.
Fitch Continues the Downgrade Parade Reduces Greece to Junk Status Down to CCCbut wait, what will Grexit do to the euro, the usd... nevermind.
What would it do to gold?
Cyprus remains connected to EU and part of EU, even it bankrupt.
What will happen to Greece, can they disconnect from EU ?
Disconnect EU and then exit EU, are both unprecedented.
It is like some grey area where Greece may be EU disconnected but still part of the EU ?
Will EU demand a pound of flesh or firstborn to disconnect from EU, or exit EU ?
Lawyers and interesting times.
Giscard: ‘Greece should leave the euro, not the EU’
http://redefininggod.com/2015/02/globalist-agenda-watch-2015-update-19a-...
"IF THE 1% DID NOT BENEFIT THEN IT WOULD NOT EXIST."
Very true. Very true...
You could get a coup. Start seeing some real Nazi's for a change.
A positive change actually.
<-- Greece is a Beta Test Case for the globalist Oligarchs
<-- Greece is Not a Test Case for the u know who
Q: Why did Rock Hudson take his children out of school?
A; Because he didn't like the way they were being reared.
The US would be willing to kill every person in a state to stop it from leaving and would be willing to sacrifice US personnel 3 to 1 as well - just like it was willing to do under Lincoln. 600,000 died.
Perhaps the Greeks don't understand the True Nature of Government.
Well said James but I will add that 99% of all citizens in all countries do not understand the truth about the criminal enterprises called governments.
True. Although 49% in the U.S. understand that the government is where you go to get "free" shit. The rest they could care less about. Even after it all implodes. Just keep asking where the government is with their "free" shit.
Option: make state/country a Ghost Town and EU keep the land, ports, and mineral rights.
There are thousands of ghost towns across the USA, which just "dried up" and are empty and vacant.
See Bodie California, or any Ghost Town on Route 66, e.g. Amboy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Ghost_towns_on_U.S._Route_66
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amboy,_California
If everyone in Detroit just leaves Detroit and moved somewhere else...that would be the same as exiting the system, but the host country keeps the land assets.
So perhaps the high taxes and high austerity are planned to cause as many people to leave Greece (and Cyprus) as possible, before the EU comes in and "takes over".
Perhaps the EU is hoping everyone leaves Greece by imposing impossible austerity...and then EU would then scoop up the land, ports, mineral rights etc.
The "GHOST TOWN" option is always in the background as it can always occur.
Automatic Earth and James Kunstler are starting to cover these topics.
Sorry Bob, but you're missing some evidence.
Your own delusions don't count. :-)
The number on both sides was closer to 1.1 million in the banksters Civil War. It wasn't about slavery either.
That was before the modern welfare state. All the states were considered assets. In the near future, welfare states, like Greece, will be jettisoned, IMO. Same goes for US blue states.
http://redefininggod.com/2015/02/globalist-agenda-watch-2015-update-19a-...
"Greece can just leave?"
They'll pull the giant cork out of the big mountain and sink into the Mediterranean Sea.
The Greek socialists have gone bankrupt three times in the past one-hundred years (four counting this one). Get the hell out and work for a living, voting for a responsible government who won't bankrupt your country every 25 years. And who are the MORONS who keep lending to a country who bankrupts itself every couple of decades? Make it on your own Greece.
Same for the U.S.
He's dead already.
I'll believe it on the day that the Greek politicians stop lying. They will not leave but will be forced out due to defaulting on their debt.
hmmmm let's see bullet to the head or a few million bucks in a swiss account and the "fetal position"........hmmmmmmmmmm I'll take door number two Monty and life
...because you are a high paid prostitute who will take it in the arse for money.
Personally I would choose the Option of NUKING the Derivatives Market if they intend to shoot me in the head. Why not take the bastards down with you?
At least I will die with dignity, and do the World some good through destroying the murdering faggot bastards, rather than be a some Homosexual's whore.
But you must like it Greecian style.
naw, take door one numbnuts.
Same bullshit different day.
Can someone explain what "Greece" is?
A third world country in Asia. Almost.
"He needs to explain that this means the eurozone refuses to recognize the democratic values of one of its member states, voting to change policy. Brussels is in effect telling the Greek people on a daily basis that they don’t matter."
Clearly Meijer is as big an asshole as Tsipras. The Eurozone will let Greece do whatever the hell it wants - what it won't do is agree to cover their enormous deficit spending ad infinitum. These people want Big Government handouts galore but don't want to pay a cent in taxes! They do want the rest of Europe to give them a blank check. They should be told to go to hell!!
The departure of Greece will strengthen the argument.
For an EU military.
As planned.
The mind of man is a function of physics.
Arming Europe was always the plan.
Young fools.
Next stop, Willoughby...
I cannot pronounce these politician's names and I am out of beer.
Time to do someting else.
The train has no breaks. Banks are failing in Austria, China is in the shitter and Greece will be another wound in the 1000 cuts that kill the beast. No need to dwell on where this spear will hit. It will draw blood and we'll move on.
Time to enjoy some sun today.
Hm well leave the euro but not the EU so they still get money i guess... 9 countries of the EU got no euro and noone cares, so leave greece be with their drachme and they can in/deflate on their own will.
Somerone has to inform the world that there is risk in investment and that is that the risk is you can looks all of that investment. I've got plenty of Russian railway bonds from the past, books of them (,but they have been coupon clipped).
Clip a coupon? Good luck here finding somebody who knows what that means.
Where they or you gonna go when the entire system is mobbed up?
1945 British National Archives Document Calls For New World Order Now
Russian Bank Hires Two Former U.S. Senators
UK Govt Allows Arms Sales Through Open Licenses to Russia and Others – CAEC Report
Russia Like The U.S. Wants U.N. to Manage Internet Infrastructure
Good post. People forget TPTB are shooting for the One World Order (basically fascist more or less), and that these 2D skirmishes need considered in that light (usually). Though in rare instances a brawl is still just a brawl. From what I've read, Greece is supposed to defect. Things like ECB and Fed will, I assume, just be like happy little satellite branches of the New World Order super jack boot banking muthas. Most of the kings/queens and multi-national captains of industry seem to want a UN, and to loosen or do away with the notion of national sovereignity - as the MNCs are to be the new nations themselves (still lorded over to some degree by royalty, bankers, church). This is pretty consistent with what one of the Rockefeller's said so long ago.
The militarization of Europe can begin.
Say goodbye to your peace dividends.
And I you actually read the article, it backs my view that the Greek government has no balls.
Everyone in Greece knows that Greece must leave the euro. But no one wants to face the pain that follows.
That would be like the US government telling all the food stamp people that their benefits are being cut off. A big public relations nightmare for them.
Everyone in Greece knows that Greece must leave the euro. But no one wants to face the pain that follows.
Or otherwise stated as: Everyone wants to go to heaven. But no one wants to die.
It is not that the majority of people don't want to face the pain. The pain is happening now, with 1/3 with no health care, almost 30% unemployment, shutting down of small businesses, foreclosures, 60% youth unemployment, etc. The rich will probably feel pain if they leave the euro. The rich control the media which spreads alarm about the prospects of a Grexit.
The rich have already shipped their wealth out of Greece
Sure they are. The entire planet is experiencing a "let the majority eat cake" monetary experiment...
full faith and credit and all that...
tick tock motherfuckers...
Indeed:
The Greek government expedites Tsipras' visit to Moscowendgame...
the EU will back down, if you remember ECB's 3rd "graccident" scenario - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-18/ecb-prepares-grexit-anticipates... - , "to negotiate a recent haircut, without having to give up the single currency, the government securities could keep at least a quarter of its original value" - bad translation but clear meaning
Let me give you a thinking Greek perspective... (mine!)
We will do jack shit! not because we don't want it!
It would definately benefit us to either get aid or turn around and leave in the long run! our numbers in both needs and production are insignificant!
But our value towards production is great!
Why we will do jack shit is the question? because of deutsche bank and so many other european banks that is in the same mess as that bank!
I mean... Greece still trying to repay that 1 big bond that took from both germans and french! what do you think that it holds other than red loans from... guess who? the lehman incident ;p
Europe is in deep shit not Greece... and the fact that we haven't even measured it tells me that its unfixable!
Since... Greece can't make it rain money for either the country or europe! Germany will eventually back down! just wait and see!
No matter what though... we're together in this!
One big happy european family with a bomb attached in the middle!
Huh?
"we're together in this" <------ Wrong, you are Germany's bitch now, so bend over motherfucker
Wrong, Germany is the bankers Bitch, Has been since 1945 when they were forcibly captured , raped and put back on the bankers fiat usury plantation that Adolph had valiantly led the escape from
The Greeks are wimps. Of course they are going to stay. They took it up the ass from the Nazis in WWII and they are going to take it up the ass again. Enough of the theater already.
(edit: present company excluded of course)
I'd rethink that notion that they took it up the ass from the Nazis if I were you. The diversion of German units to overcome stout Greek resistance to invating Italian forces and the subsequence Greek partizan resistance once their organized army was overwhelmed meant delaying operation Barbarosa by a few months.
The Germans as a result ended up going into Russia facing the winter. And you know the rest of the story.
Sorry, but that is absolute BS.
It was Yugoslavia's TITO who was the Partisan genius, who tied up 40 Wehrmacht divisions. And in so doing, taking them away from the Russian Front.
Something else I'll bet you real money that you didn't know: Tito was Josip Broz's codename -- given to him by... [drumroll]... Josef Stalin.
It wa Tito's military success and refusal to let Stalin's troops enter Yugoslavia -- under the pretext of helping to mop up German troops -- that made Tito the Leader of the Non-Aligned countries for decades to come. Tito. Not some vain but impotent Greek politician.
I rest my case, your Honor.
Greece either defaults and adopts the Drachma, or defaults and keeps the Euro.
The EZ does not want a Greek default while Greece keeps the Euro because it will set a bad precedent for others. But I say default is inevitable, so it would be better to Greece to just tell the EZ to fuck off and default, write the debt off as a sovereign nation, re-instate the Drachma, let the markets (painfully) discover its real market price....then peg it to the Euro (or USD, Yuan) to stabilize inflation and confidence, by buying up a heap of foreign reserves with newly issued bonds, yeah maybe they'll have a bit of an initial funding problem with high risk premiums, but markets will realize no odious debt overhang persists and begin lending again. In the longer term this is more workable than remaining in the EZ and bleeding out and being humiliated.
Perhaps, but there is probably no default or bankruptcy for any EU state, only bail-in.
For example Cyprus precedes Greece, and did the bail-in and stay in EU option.
Crypus bail-in included strategic and tactical EU bail-outs to keep Cyrpus "alive" but fully dependent on the EU host.
It is a Cyprus blueprint style "bankruptcy".
It's simple, Greece will default next week on the IMF loan and see what Europe does after that... Like a game of Poker raising the stakes! Euro will drop like a stone towards parity to $
Greece should already have left, and I can't read any more of these articles until they do.
Join Iceland in giving the middle finger to the banksters.
Be free and default.
The useless Eurocrats will cover it up.
The comments/ analysis portrays perfectly the position of Tsipras and Varoufakis in that they see the solution to many of their problems as to convincing a majority of the voting populace to vote against the EU imposed austerity.
That there will have to be a referendum to decide to go or to accept austerity is a given and the problem, to date, with that was that at the time of the general election a majority of the voters wanted to keep the Euro.
Having now seen how the Troika is determined to keep the populace in penury they will hopefully tell them to "stick it".
Very interesting analysis. But I disagree with the author. The author seems to assume that the priority of Syriza is to look out for the best interests of Greece rather than hanging on to their seats in Parliament. Syriza is better than the older parties in that the best interests of the people are a factor in their decision-making. But the leadership of Syriza wouldn't want to deal with this whole messy exit plus the likelihood of losing their seats in Parliament. They would rather extend and pretend like the rest of the EU. Maybe they'll think of a new name for austerity? They'll keep renaming things until they run out of words.
If it was the case that Tsipras and other members in the leadership of Syriza were even thinking about leaving the EU, would they really continue to tell people that leaving the euro would be a catastrophe? If they were planning on a referendum would Varoufakis say (just last month) that leaving the euro would mean a return to Neolithic times?
@MS7,
Tsipras and Varoufakis simply have to show the Greek people that whatever they have tried to do to alleviate the austerity is absolutely to no avail.I believe this has been their strategy all along.
Whatever they say, it's just part of their negotiations, part of their plan to convince the Greek people that it will be THEIR decision to dump the Troika imposed austerity.
They will be seen to have tried their best to carry out the mandate that they were elected on and the Troika will be seen as the assholes that they are.
Goodbye Troika, Hello Drachma, with a bit of luck.
The extremist neo=Marxist folded like deckchairs on the Titanic.
What the Greeks need to do is bring back the drachma and exist the Eurozone.
And while they are at it, bring back the colonels. It's for their own good.
If Tsipras is grooming the electorate to vote for an exit he best stay out of light aircraft and have his food thoroughly checked. They going to call in the jackals on this one.
Raul, excellent post, on target with every aspect and angle. This is Politics. I do think it is necessary for Tsipras to CYA and explore every angle and depth of the EU's degree willingness to help Greece at this point. Ultimately it will come down to the Greek populace having to stand up and affirm the reason they voted for Syriza in the first place. Varoufakis has done an excellent job of translating numbers into words with his descriptions and consequences of the 2010 and 2012 "bailouts". Revivng a Greek Central Bank can't be done overnight, I wish them all the best.
Anyone who still thinks there will be a referendum just doesn't undrstand the severity of the crisis in Greece, how quickly things are unravelling, nor how long it really takes to organize a referendum.
The ECB is making sure Greece defacto exits by running out of euros both in the government coffers and in its banks. Everything else is noise.
Plus they may need to borrow a few bucks to run the referendum.
Where are they going'?
Just work out a reasonable repayment plan. $100 per month for the next one billion years.
Its got to the ironic point that the EU wants Greece to leave but says the opposite. I'm not quite sure what the Greeks want though, since WWII they've had their share of crappy fiat crises's and by contrast the Euro looks quite good. Also there's a lot of Greeks working in EU that don't want to become illegal immigrants.
If there's a vote I'm betting they'll stay in.
Yet another shining socialist success story. Throw it on the wood pile.
Yeah, right in there with the revered capitalist democracy that's working so well in the USA.
I guess he tucked his shirt in!
What exactly are the 'proud Greeks' proud of?
Being bums constantly reliant on the kindness of strangers?
Ask Ukraine about leaving the EU kleptosphere
If the Greeks leave then it would be best for them to do it while the Russians will help them for political reasons.
Enough with all this SECOND-GUESSING-BULLSHIT ALREADY. Do what Iceland did. Nuff said.
If only Greece had a Sarah Palin who would say; "I can see Iceland from my upstairs window" and then put the bankers in jail.
Greece, stop being a cock tease, either close your legs or hump away with abandon....!
The horns of battle are going to have to blow with the vast majority of Greeks realizing they are about to become grass roots entrepreneurs because the social security payments are about to stop.
At that grass roots level I can't see why they would have any problems with currency--just trade using whatever the customer has in his pocket. Don't even establish a national currency. Who would want that doomsday machine known as a central bank?
A Greek Exit would get rid of the powerful controlling interests too by taking advantage of one great strength of the Greek population: The national aversion to paying taxes.
Yup, it's what any people in a crisis region do to adapt to a defunct currency: use more useful foreign currencies.
"Cashish please. No thanks to plastic" (since plastic costs fees and leaves a cookie trail for the Greek taxman).
Maybe a good opportunity for those with trade agreements with China and Russia to redevelop the country.Spain and Italy next and yes France has been openly disagreeing with U.S. hegemony.The open joining of agreements with China and threats from the U.S. over this has resulted in a deaf ear to Washington's corrupt gang of thieves.
well let's just see how stupid people can get. If they think that leaving the euro and going back to a hyper inflated local currency isn't a form of austerity then they are morons.
Yes, but if Greece exits and EU does not prevent the Greek ports and Greek labor, then more work and jobs will come to Greece.
The post-exit Greek labor would be "so cheap" that many shipping companies, travel/tourism, and investors might rush to Greece to pickup cheap deals.
That is the entire point of smaller/messed up/bankrupt counties/states/cities...exit the system and then get new jobs, new businesses, new life.
If the ECB, conveniently, can send money to every deadbeat in
Europe ( and beyond ) but can't seem to find Athens on a map,
I guess maybe the Greeks will have to get the picture...
.
.
.
...and respond in kind...
!
Greece would leave faster if it could find another tit to suck on.
Motherfuckers please. Greece isn't going anywhere. Who will be their new sugar daddy? Russia? lol, stop it. Leaving would mean some discipline and they've shown that's not in cards. It'll be MORE government, MORE handouts, MORE immigration, MORE unicorns and MORE fake ass tough talk from the socialists in power. The EU is the collectivist roach motel of world. Once you enter there's no leaving.
Greeks! Heads up. You can buy toilet paper and tampons with bitcoin now.
...Stathis Kouvelakis, who teaches political theory at King’s College in London...
I suspect few of the parties in these negotiations are grounded in anything approaching the real world.
We're talking about socialists (Syriza) here. They don't want to face 2 or 3 years of pain, then years of LIVING WITHIN THEIR MEANS. This whole charade is trying to get the rest of the eurozone to give them more money for the least amount of pain they (Greece) will feel. That means staying as long as they can in the eurozone.
The Euro-cretins should just announce Year Zero in Greece and Re-Educate them
educate us, yanki-cretin... bitch, please!
Whether Greece stays ir leaves is secindary to five main matters:
1. Its public service is still too big and unproductive ( by unproductive I mean inefficient and full of red tape) and therefore its taxes are too high.
2. Its demographics are problematic.
3. It has still not embraced the attitudinal changes required and too many cling to the notion that they can return to their previous levels of living.
4.it has an illegal immigrant problem of huge proportions.
5. Finally, its balance of payments issue indicates that even without debt it cannot make ends meet.
Greece needs to detonate the system by getting together its last 10 billion and putting in an order for silver. Failing that it will at least send the price through the roof and leave her with a tidy profit.
and they could mint real drachmas, like they did in the ancient Greek heyday
It is becoming clear that the EU is the 4th Reich, ostensibly headquartered in Brussels but bossed by Berlin. Greece is just a symptom.
The Euro is the key mechanism for centralization of power in Germany. Germany, with its uber-efficient factories, disciplined labor force, and high tech, overpowers the manufacturers of all the other EU countries. German exports grow and Germany runs huge trade and financial surpluses. Other nations in the EU cannot adjust the value of their currency or interest rate policies to regain competitiveness. The Euro is a boon to Germany and a strait-jacket for the other members of the Euro zone.
Greece is a sub-prime buyer/borrower from Germany. Any European in business knows the history and reputation of Greece as a very bad credit risk. But, with Greece in the Euro, Germany sells vast amounts of goods and services to Greece, while German, French, and Italian banks provide the vendor-financing. The banks know they can rely upon their governments to arrange a bail-out if Greece does not pay. Sure enough, when the EU banks and economies catch contagion in 2009 and 2010 from the 2008 US sub-prime meltdown, the governments of Germany, France and Italy engineer a bail-out of their banks through the Troika "bail-out" of Greece.
In the "Greek bailout", Greece is saddled with the cost of relieving the German, French, and Italian banks of the worthless Greek sovereign bonds and Greek bank IOUs they took as collateral for Euros advanced to Greece and Greek banks. The Greek treasury is now the debtor for all the bail-out funds, and austerity is imposed on the Greek government to prioritize debt repayment over all other expenditures. Greece goes into a depression and suffers 25% overall unemployment, 55%+ youth unemployment, and massive social suffering. The rest of the "PIIGS" are treated similarly, with the EU forcing all of them to adopt austerity as the new economic/budgetary remedy for debt and lack of competitiveness. Austerity has similar effects in all the PIIGS.
Greek voters elect Syriza to get relief from austerity and to stop the fire-sale of Greek assets under IMF rules. But the voters want to keep the Euro and stay in the EU. Tsipras and Varoufakis stopped the sale of assets and are playing out the charade of seeking relief from austerity, and seeking debt relief, knowing full well that the Troika and Germany (see Schaeuble) will stonewall any relief.
The Troika, Germany, and the ruling politicians in Spain and Portugal torpedo every attempt by Greece to negotiate relief. Why? Any relief to Greece will encourage anti-austerity, anti-Euro political sentiments, will create doubts about eventual repayment of PIIGS debts, will damage faith in the Euro and the EU banking system, and any rearrangement of the Euro system might weaken Germany's export domination in the EU.
The Troika and Germany insist that Greece must re-confirm its commitment to austerity, asset sales, and "reforms" while accepting periodic loans to keep up its loan payments, i.e. "extend and pretend" that Greece will eventually repay the debts. Tsipras keeps putting forward lists of "reforms", knowing they will not be accepted by the Troika.
Schaeulbe and Dijselbloem play out their roles as the perfect Teutonic "NO-men" to the Greeks. Tsipras acts as the earnest nice-guy just trying to get relief for his suffering voters but being punched in the face by the nasty Troika and German operatives. The stage is being set by Syriza for a referrendum of the Greek people to be given the choice between:
(a) continue with austerity and misery in the Euro but survive with a drip-feed of new loans to keep the government and banks operating, while Greece's debt load inexorably climbs to ever-more unpayable heights; and
(b) leave the Euro, repudiate the debts, and "do an Iceland". There will be economic and financial dislocations but eventually Greeks will be better off.
Without a mandate from the Greek people to leave the Euro, and even leave the EU, Syria is trying to negotiate with both hands tied behind its back. But with such mandates, suddenly Greece would be in a position to repudiate the debts and the Euro system and thus create havoc in the EU banking system.
If Syriza gets its "Grexit" mandate from the Greek voters, the Troika and Germany will face the choice of giving some relief to Greece (and thus encouraging similar relief demands from Spain, Portugal and Ireland) or seeing Greece repudiate or default on its debts and crash the Euro-zone banking system.
Meanwhile:
1. While Greek requests for relief were being rebuffed, France and Italy have been given relief from their austerity programs, allowing them to run deficits above 3%;
2. The Troika increases the pressure on Greece, threatening to cut off funding of Greek banks as those banks try to cope with the ongoing run of withdrawals, and refusing advances to the Greek government while repayments on bonds become due. The Troika may create a Greek default on its own, since the Greek government is shut out of borrowing markets and is running out of stashes of cash it can grab for debt payments (perfect example of Germanic pig-headedness);
3. Austerity is increasingly unpopular with Europeans, and has not led to economic recovery. The ongoing Troika/Germany versus Greece drama shows that significant relief from austerity cannot be achieved without threatening default or repudiation of debts. Thus voters in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland are becoming increasingly attracted to ultra-radical anti-Euro parties;
4. Cracks are appearing in the EU banking system from unanticipated quarters - sanctions against Russia, Swiss dropping the Euro peg, and now the meltdown of the Austrian Heta bank and its spreading contagion to German banks; and
5. Draghi gets his covetted QE bond-buying program, which he no doubt sees as the means of saving the Euro, the EU banks, and economic growth in the EU zone, but may be seen as a move in desperation and an admission that they are all tanking.
Germany will not willingly give up its dominant economic position given by the Euro. Nor will Merkel willingly agree to renegotiate Greek austerity because she knows the German people will see this as a gift by German taxpayers to "lazy" Greeks. German pig-headedness may provoke an unintended Greek default, but at least Merkel can say that she did not agree to give relief to Greece. Ironically, under the Fiscal Stability treaty, German taxpayers have guaranteed all the debts of all other Euro member states, so Germany is on the hook with all the other Euro states if Greece defaults in any case.
Anyone who enjoys schadenfreude must like this situation.